scholarly journals Beta Distribution for Estimating Risk Associated Time Schedule of Hydropower Projects in Nepal

2021 ◽  
pp. 67-78
Author(s):  
Kiran Kumar Shrestha ◽  
Rabindra Kayastha
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Project Work ◽  
Time Schedule ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Expected Time ◽  
Hydropower Construction

Background: Risk is associated with every kind of project work whether it is related to engineering construction project, software development project, financial transaction process or business process. There isn't any project which is free of risks. It is inherent in all types of projects. Observing risk associated with a project can help in successful completion of projects in expected time and expected cost with good assurance of quality. This article is concerned with quantitative analysis of risks coined with hydropower construction project in Nepal. Objective: The main objective of this paper is (a) to identify different activities involved in hydropower construction projects (b) to estimate risk associated time schedule of the identified project activities. Materials and Methods: Data required for the fulfillment of the objective are obtained by interview and discussion with executives of “Shiva Shree Hydropower Limited” and by using project schedule charts of projects won by the company. In this article quantitative analysis of schedule risk of hydropower project is studied by simulation method. Results: Different activities involved in hydropower construction project are identified. Also, risk associated with time schedule of project are observed quantitatively by simulation using beta-PERT distribution. Conclusion: Estimation of time schedule associated with project activities is more realistic when it is analyzed by using beta-PERT distribution compared to other statistical distributions.

scholarly journals Scheduling Optimization of Prefabricated Construction Projects by Genetic Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5531
Author(s):  
Linlin Xie ◽  
Yajiao Chen ◽  
Ruidong Chang
Keyword(s):  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Engineering Application ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Scheduling Optimization ◽  
Implementation Method ◽  
Traditional Construction ◽  
Construction Project Scheduling

Prefabricated buildings are the direction of the future development of the construction industry and have received widespread attention. The effective execution of prefabricated construction project scheduling should consider resource constraints and the supply arrangement of prefabricated components. However, the traditional construction resource-constrained project scheduling implementation method cannot simultaneously consider the characteristics of the linkage between component production and on-site assembly construction. It cannot also fully adapt to the scheduling implementation method of the prefabricated construction projects. It is difficult to work out a reasonable project schedule and resource allocation table. In order to determine the relevant schedule parameters that can reflect the actual construction situation of the prefabricated building and meet the scheduling requirements of the prefabricated project, this study proposes a prefabricated construction project scheduling model that considers project resource constraints and prefabricated component supply constraints. Additionally, it improves the design of traditional genetic algorithms (GAs). Research results of the experimental calculation and engineering application show that the proposed project scheduling optimization model and GA are effective and practical, which can help project managers in effectively formulating prefabricated construction project scheduling plans, reasonably allocating resources, reducing completion time, and improving project performance.

scholarly journals Risk analysis and strategic planning on bridge construction works at the toll road procurement projects in Central Java Province

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 02020
Author(s):  
Hery Suliantoro ◽  
Nurul Fitriani ◽  
Bagus Hario Setiadji
Keyword(s):  
Avoidance Response ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Bridge Construction ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
The Impact

Risk is a condition caused by uncertainty. Risks will occur on any construction project, including bridge construction projects. Efforts that can be taken to minimize the impact of these risks are to engage in risk management activities. This research was conducted on bridge construction work on toll road procurement project in Pejagan-Pemalang, Pemalang-Batang and Salatiga-Kertasura. The purpose of this research is to analyze the risk of bridge development project in toll road project using Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) method and then the result as database in discussing risk response strategy. The bridge construction project has 36 risks that are divided into six groups: materials and equipment, design, human resources, finance, management, nature and environmental conditions. Bad weather risks are the higest risk and seasonal risk causing temporary work stoppages. This risk-response strategy is avoidance. Short-term avoidance response strategy is to add shift workers, install tents and add additives in the acceleration of the process of maturation of concrete. The long-term avoidance response strategy is to evaluate and rearrange the work schedule by considering the weather forecast report.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KETERLAMBATAN PROYEK SERTA DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP BIAYA DAN WAKTU PELAKSANAAN PROYEK

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Fitri Nur Kharina ◽  
Kusno Adi Sambowo
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Project Work ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Review Period ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Construction projects in all regions continues to be developed for the creation of facilities that can be utilized by the community. One of them is the construction of apartments which are now being intensively carried out to meet residential needs for the community. Making a construction project plan always refers to estimates that exist at the time development plan is made, therefore problems can arise if there is a discrepancy between the plans that have been made and the actual reality. So the impact that often occurs is the delay in the time of project implementation which can also be accompanied by an increase in the cost of implementing the project. In the construction project of Cinere Terrace Suites Apartemen & Citywalk, Jakarta there was a delay resulting in a late payment of monthly bill progress by the owner. Based on the above reasons, this research was conducted to find out how the project performance was seen from the cost and time period of the review period. how is the estimated cost and time to complete the overall project work. The method used in the analysis of this study is the Earned Value Method. Based on the results of the analysis carried out for 29 weeks the project performance on schedule has been delayed and cost shows a positive value. For the estimated completion time of the project there is an increase in time whose duration increases from the planned 98 weeks or 685 days to 109,624 weeks or 768 days. While the estimated cost of completing the project from the results of the analysis obtained a value of Rp. 270,147,448,569.16 smaller than the planned cost of Rp. 315,272,727,272.73. With the difference VAC of Rp. 45,125,278,703.57 this shows that there are benefits obtained by the contractor.

scholarly journals Analysis of modern construction projects using montecarlo simulation technique

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.19) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
A. M. Arunmohan ◽  
M. Lakshmi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Success ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Montecarlo Simulation ◽  
Total Project Cost ◽  
Total Project

Today, Construction based Industry is the prospering industry which has a high economical influence on any nation. Delay in the huge construction project increases the total project cost. Henceforth, uncertainties as well as risks must be significantly regarded during the project. For organizing and completing the projects in a financially, timely and qualitatively accountable manner, careful scheduling of projects is compulsory. Effectual scheduling of project assures project success. This study concentrates on qualitative analysis, risk identification, together with quantitative analysis. The targets are i) to ascertain the key risk aspects that disturb the project schedule, and ii) to find the probability of finishing the project within specified time. Questionnaires are distributed amongst 20 industry practitioners with disparate experience from [1] to [25] years.  Quantitative analysis is made by the methods like Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and PERT. @RISK by Palisade corp. is utilized for MCS.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KUALITAS MANAJER PROYEK TERHADAP PELAKSANAAN PROYEK KONSTRUKSI (STUDI KASUS : DI DENPASAR DAN BADUNG)

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Gde Eka Dharsika ◽  
IN Budiartha ◽  
I W Yansen
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Manager ◽  
Project Work ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
A Value

Abstract: Problems in construction projects caused by the extension of working time and an increase in labor costs. A limited ability of project management contribute to the decline in the quality of project work. The quality of project manager has an important role to smooth a construction project. Dedication in this profession requires project managers to carry out the work going according to plan. Analyzing the quality of the project manager for the implementation of construction projectsis one wayto measure the quality of a project. It needs  a right measurements way to providean accurate assessment of qualified and reliable project managers. This study aimed to obtain and analyze the factors that affect the quality of the project manager and its to construction projects.This used a sample of 45 respondents from several construction projects in the area of Badung and Denpasar during the period 2007-2012. The method used in this study is the method of multiple linear regression analysis by testing for the F-test and t-test. The results found 8 dominant factor that has a value eigen values??> 1. Sequentially, the factors that have been named are experience 41.63%,  education 9.278%, knowledge 7.240%, ability 5.088%, character 4.047%, network 3.843%, relationship communication 3.550%, confidence 3.357%. Influence the quality of the project manager on the performance fee of 51.9%, against 43.1% for quality performance, on-time performance, with a value of 57.9%. The results of this study prove that the powerful influence between the quality of the construction project manager to the implementation of construction projects.

scholarly journals Toward Reducing Construction Project Delivery Time under Limited Resources

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 11035
Author(s):  
Hossam H. Mohamed ◽  
Ahmed H. Ibrahim ◽  
Asmaa A. Soliman
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Cost Optimization ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Limited Resource ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Java Program ◽  
Optimizing Model

One of the most vital construction project aspects is to complete a project in minimum time restricted to the time–cost trade-off. Overlapping activities’ planning and their impact on the project under limited resource constraints should be considered. This study aims to develop a model for optimizing the project schedule and cost regarding overlap activities and their impacts. This study reviews previous studies on changes in past activities likely to produce additional reworking of subsequent activities. In addition, an AHP model is developed to assess the reworking time of subsequent activities based on possible changes in previous activities. In addition, five realistic construction projects are applied. Finally, an optimizing model is developed for optimizing project time and cost using overlapping techniques by using the Java program. The results indicate that the proposed model can be used by project managers easily for solving time and cost optimization problems. In addition, it can be updated to continuously improve its functionality. Finally, it can be updated later to support AI for finding better solutions.

scholarly journals SCIENTOMETRIC REVIEW OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECT SCHEDULE STUDIES: TRENDS, GAPS AND POTENTIAL RESEARCH AREAS

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 343-363
Author(s):  
Gebrehana Derbe ◽  
Yashuai Li ◽  
Di Wu ◽  
Qiuhong Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Performance Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Scientometric Analysis ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Document Type ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Abstract Content

Scheduling plays a fundamental role in construction projects’ success and thus has drawn attention from both academic researchers and industry practitioners. A large number of research articles tend to solve emerging challenges in construction project schedule (CPS). Therefore, there is a strong need of systematic review on existing studies. In this study, a total of 332 articles were retrieved from Scopus database using title, abstract and keywords with respect to CPS and filtered by document type, language type and abstract content. In particular, science mapping approach was adopted to analyse selected journal articles. These articles were examined using three sequential processes, including bibliometric search, scientometric analysis, and in-depth qualitative discussion. It could demonstrate the most influential journals, researchers, published articles, and active countries/regions in this area. In addition, major CPS knowledge areas were identified and summarized as CPS constructability, applications of variety of CPS methods, CPS optimization models and algorithms, identification and quantification of schedule risks and uncertainties, CPS performance management, and adopting new emerging CPS technologies and methods. Furthermore, knowledge gaps and future potential research directions were also discussed in detail. Finally, a comprehensive CPS framework was proposed as a sound reference in future research.

scholarly journals Using meta-networks to analyse the impact of adverse random events on the time and cost of completing

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-202
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Śladowski
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Dynamic Network ◽  
Single Mode ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Material Resources ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Random Events ◽  
Risk Sources ◽  
The Impact

According to the concept of a system-based approach, a construction project can be treated as a complex system composed of various elements, such as human, equipment and material resources, as well as knowledge and tasks that are mutually interlinked. In the classical approach to construction project risk assessment, the impact of the “system” in the analysis of relationships between risk sources and their consequences has so far been neglected. The concept of construction project vulnerability and its adaptability has appeared in literature in recent years. It is analysed on the basis of a project’s vulnerability to the impact of risk factors and its adaptive capacity is seen an answer to project perturbations caused by adverse random events. As a part of developing the system-based approach to analysing construction project schedule, the author further developed the concept of modelling planned construction projects with relationship meta-networks composed of four types of nodes: agents (human resources), knowledge, equipment and material resources and tasks. The author included possible deviations from the planned project’s budget in the schedule vulnerability and adaptability analysis, instead of only focusing on deviations from its completion deadline. An analysis of the occurrence of additional and replacement work was introduced by the author, which further developed the concept of the simulated evolution of such networks to include the capacity to introduce new nodes and links into their structure. Furthermore, the author used the potential of weighted meta-networks to model certain dependencies within the planned project. A simulation-based approach as a part of DNA (dynamic network analysis) was used to analyse the vulnerability and adaptability of such networks. The proposed approach was presented on the example of a renovation project performed on a historical structure. The conclusions drawn from the author’s analyses can be used to formulate construction project schedules that are less vulnerable to perturbations and are characterised by greater adaptability. In the future, the author plans to expand the analysis presented above to include dependencies in single-mode networks (e.g. in agent, resource or knowledge networks) on the meta-network of a project.

CAUSES OF VARIATION ORDERS FOR MEGA CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samer Ezeldin ◽  
Amr Khaled El-Sadek
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Project Cost ◽  
Change Orders ◽  
The United Kingdom

Variations or change orders are inevitable in any construction project. They are defined as any change that happens in the scope of the project. Change is an additional scope of work, omission, or even alteration. This paper presents the main causes of variation orders in MENA region represented by Egypt. The research investigates the causes, as identified by clients, consultants, and contractors. It classifies them into four main categories: owner related, contractor related, consultant related, and other causes. The top 10 most important causes are ranked among the opinion of each party. The study reveals that the top 3 causes are: 1) The client instruction of additional works; 2) The contractor using ambiguous areas in the contract to request variations, and 3) continuous changes in the project schedule. A comparison about causes of variations was performed between Egypt, Palestine, Malaysia, and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, a model is proposed to provide the user with a scale that predicts the effect of the events triggering variations on both project cost and time.

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