Probability in reliability assessments of electric power complexes

Electric power complexes today rightfully belong to the category of complex systems that become integral structural elements of the environment. Any electric power complex created by engineers has to satisfy the corresponding needs of a person, because this is what it is created for. From this point of view, the electric power complex should be considered endowed with appropriate consumer properties, which must show stability during the period of its operation, determined by the reliability indicators, which for the electric power complex must be supplemented by the corresponding safety indicators. It is these indicators that make it possible to conclude about the possibility of manifestation of the electric power complex during the operation of its consumer properties in full and without a threat to people and to the environment, that is, they make it possible to make a decision about the possibility and feasibility of operating this electric power complex. The analysis of the essence of the concept of probability as a tool to overcome the incompleteness and inaccuracy of information about the events under study, along with various concepts (interpretations) of probability from the point of view of their theoretical status and practical application in the problems of calculating the reliability and safety indicators of electric power complexes. Analyzed the classical, statistical and axiomatic concepts of probability, revealed the features of each of these concepts, conditions and reservations regarding their application in engineering practice. Reveals the reasons for the discrepancy between the reliability indicators, calculated at the design stage of devices on the basis of reference data on the failure rate of individual components, indicators that are observed during the operation of these devices, as well as the need to be careful with the processing of observation results in cases where such that differ significantly from the majority. It is noted that the limitations associated with statistical probability can be to a greater or lesser extent leveled by using the concept of hyper-random events, but the widespread implementation of this concept is constrained by the lack of an appropriate experimental database. On the basis of the analysis carried out, urgent tasks are formulated related to increasing the efficiency of calculating the reliability and safety indicators of electric power complexes.

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Hydroelectric Power Generation and the Climate of Japan—a Case of Engineering Meteorology

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/1520-0477-40.8.416 ◽

1959 ◽

Vol 40 (8) ◽

pp. 416-421 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

H. Arakawa

Keyword(s):

Power Generation ◽

Electric Power ◽

Seasonal Variations ◽

Essential Role ◽

Point Of View ◽

Hydroelectric Power ◽

Statistical Probability ◽

Utility Company ◽

Hydroelectric Power Generation

The climate plays an essential role in hydroelectric power generation of Japan. An effort is made to clarify the basic seasonal variations of hydroelectric generation from the climatological point of view. From the viewpoint of a statistical probability, extra stand-by steam-generated powers necessary for drought are computed for each Japanese electric power and utility company.

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Interpetration of logic and probability in assessment of reliability of electric power complexes

Energy and automation ◽

10.31548/energiya2021.01.071 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 71-89

Author(s):

G. Mirskikh ◽

◽

V. Vasyuk ◽

T. Knizhka ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Electric Power ◽

Social Systems ◽

Point Of View ◽

Empirical Science ◽

Science And Engineering ◽

Human Environment ◽

Current State ◽

Theoretical Status ◽

Further Development ◽

Integrated Structures

The presented work, devoted to the consideration of existing concepts of logic, is aimed at analyzing the concepts of probability and logic, both separately and in the form of the corresponding integrated structures, taking into account their application in the problems of assessing the reliability and safety indicators of electric power complexes. Logic, as a scientific direction, has long gone beyond the framework of philosophical discourse and today is considered as an effective tool for practical activity in various fields of science and engineering. At the same time, both independent directions of the development of logic and structures in which this concept is integrated with other concepts or becomes the basis for the formation of new effective tools, have found their place. Obviously, logic is not an empirical science. However, the incentives of its development she derives from the practice of real thinking. Changes in the thinking of the end result in a change of logic itself. The latter can, in a sense, serve as a justification for the branching of logic to which it was subjected throughout the entire period of its existence and further development. The analysis of the content essence of the structures constructed as a result of the “fusion” of the concepts of probability and logic from the point of view of their theoretical status and practical application is carried out. The reason for the variability of interpretations of the concepts of probability and logic, their philosophical meaning, objective regularity of the interpenetration of the concept of probabilistic and logical conclusions, the formation on this basis of the theory of fuzzy sets and new engineering tools, which today are increasingly useful in the process of implementing the life cycle of structurally complex technical complexes of long use , in the study of climatic changes and the ecology of the human environment, in establishing the current state and forecasting the directions of further development of social systems and populations of wildlife, and much more.

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THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF UNDERSTANDING OF THE SYSTEM OBJECT IN DESIGN

Technical Aesthetics and Design Research ◽

10.34031/2687-0878-2019-1-4-5-10 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (4) ◽

pp. 5-10

Author(s):

V. Barysheva ◽

O. Druzhinina

Keyword(s):

Scientific Research Institute ◽

Point Of View ◽

Design Stage ◽

Comprehensive Understanding ◽

Design Culture ◽

Design Program ◽

Methodological Aspects ◽

Cultural Experts ◽

Union Scientific Research Institute ◽

Separate Product

The article is devoted to the analysis of the system object from the point of view of design from design, sociocultural and philosophical positions. The authors systematize the definitions of a system object of design proposed in the 1960–1980s by theorists and practitioners, art historians, cultural experts and philosophers from different countries, including Russia, which allows a comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon of design culture. This article is devoted to the characteristic properties of the system object in design. They were considered and analyzed on the example of the «Absheron» design-program when designing of agricultural village). This concept was developed at the All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Technical Aesthetics (VNIITE) in 1983. Using the same example, the features of the approach to designing a system object in design was observed not only as a separate product, but as a sociocultural situation that constantly changes at each design stage.

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DEVELOPMENT OF RELIABILITY PROJECT ESTIMATION PROCEDURE CONSIDERING EFFECTS OF IONIZING RADIATION FOR ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT

Issues of radio electronics ◽

10.21778/2218-5453-2019-1-57-63 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 57-63

Author(s):

M. A. Artyukhova ◽

S. N. Polesskiy

Keyword(s):

Ionizing Radiation ◽

Radiation Resistance ◽

Power Plants ◽

Estimation Procedure ◽

Reliability Estimation ◽

Electronic Equipment ◽

Design Stage ◽

Space Systems ◽

Reliability Indicators ◽

Project Estimation

Human activity is often accompanied by exposure of ionizing radiation: the exploitation of space systems and power plants, research using isotopic sources, medicine. The development of electronic equipment is regulated by carrying out activities to ensure the required reliability and radiation resistance. However, the effect of ionizing radiation on reliability indicators is not taken into account properly, or is not taken into account at all, that sometimes leads to the loss of expensive equipment and even to human victims. The article discusses the methodology for carrying out an adequate estimate of the reliability considering the influence of external influencing factors, including ionizing radiation. The timeliness of decisions making to ensure the required reliability indicators is determined by the completeness of the reliability estimation at the design stage. Effort to ensure the reliability and durability of devices after the design stage is not economically viable. The completeness and adequacy of the estimation always depends on the interaction of specialists in different fields: designers, programmers, experts in the field of circuit design, electrical engineering and experts in the field of reliability and radiation resistance.

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Features of the formation of environmental protection mechanisms during the operation of objects of the electric power complex

IOP Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering ◽

10.1088/1757-899x/976/1/012018 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 976 ◽

pp. 012018

Author(s):

E V Provodina ◽

O Yu Krasovskaya ◽

T A Gerasimova ◽

Yu V Predeus ◽

D P Tserpento

Keyword(s):

Environmental Protection ◽

Electric Power ◽

Protection Mechanisms ◽

Power Complex

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Design and Field Validation of a Low Power Wireless Sensor Node for Structural Health Monitoring

Sensors ◽

10.3390/s21041050 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (4) ◽

pp. 1050

Author(s):

Federico Zanelli ◽

Francesco Castelli-Dezza ◽

Davide Tarsitano ◽

Marco Mauri ◽

Maria Laura Bacci ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Low Power ◽

Sensor Node ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Point Of View ◽

Design Stage ◽

Monitoring Systems ◽

Wireless Sensor Node ◽

Process Data ◽

Fatigue Life Estimation ◽

Remaining Fatigue Life

Smart monitoring systems are currently gaining more attention and are being employed in several technological areas. These devices are particularly appreciated in the structural field, where the collected data are used with purposes of real time alarm generation and remaining fatigue life estimation. Furthermore, monitoring systems allow one to take advantage of predictive maintenance logics that are nowadays essential tools for mechanical and civil structures. In this context, a smart wireless node has been designed and developed. The sensor node main tasks are to carry out accelerometric measurements, to process data on-board, and to send wirelessly synthetic information. A deep analysis of the design stage is carried out, both in terms of hardware and software development. A key role is played by energy harvesting integrated in the device, which represents a peculiar feature and it is thanks to this solution and to the adoption of low power components that the node is essentially autonomous from an energy point of view. Some prototypes have been assembled and tested in a laboratory in order to check the design features. Finally, a field test on a real structure under extreme weather conditions has been performed in order to assess the accuracy and reliability of the sensors.

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A Novel Methodology for Adaptive Coordination of Multiple Controllers in Electrical Grids

Mathematics ◽

10.3390/math9131474 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (13) ◽

pp. 1474

Author(s):

Ruben Tapia-Olvera ◽

Francisco Beltran-Carbajal ◽

Antonio Valderrabano-Gonzalez ◽

Omar Aguilar-Mejia

Keyword(s):

Power Systems ◽

Power System ◽

Electric Power ◽

Large Scale ◽

Short Circuit ◽

Dynamic Performance ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Electric Power System ◽

Design Stage ◽

Positive Interaction

This proposal is aimed to overcome the problem that arises when diverse regulation devices and controlling strategies are involved in electric power systems regulation design. When new devices are included in electric power system after the topology and regulation goals were defined, a new design stage is generally needed to obtain the desired outputs. Moreover, if the initial design is based on a linearized model around an equilibrium point, the new conditions might degrade the whole performance of the system. Our proposal demonstrates that the power system performance can be guaranteed with one design stage when an adequate adaptive scheme is updating some critic controllers’ gains. For large-scale power systems, this feature is illustrated with the use of time domain simulations, showing the dynamic behavior of the significant variables. The transient response is enhanced in terms of maximum overshoot and settling time. This is demonstrated using the deviation between the behavior of some important variables with StatCom, but without or with PSS. A B-Spline neural networks algorithm is used to define the best controllers’ gains to efficiently attenuate low frequency oscillations when a short circuit event is presented. This strategy avoids the parameters and power system model dependency; only a dataset of typical variable measurements is required to achieve the expected behavior. The inclusion of PSS and StatCom with positive interaction, enhances the dynamic performance of the system while illustrating the ability of the strategy in adding different controllers in only one design stage.

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