scholarly journals Twin Deficit Phenomena in the Two Government Eras in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-48
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ghafur Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Balance Deficit

The aim of this study is to analyze the development of the budget deficit and current account deficit in Indonesia in the era of President SBY and President Jokowi and to compare between the two eras. This study also analyzes the relationship of twin deficits to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the interest rate (r). The analytical tool used was independent t-test (for comparison) and Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR). The data used comes from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2004:Q1-2018: Q3. The result showed that the budget deficit was the same in the two eras of government, but the trade balance deficit in the era of President Jokowi was far higher than before. The budget deficit has a significant effect on the trade balance deficit but does not apply otherwise (no causality). Variable gross domestic product and interest rates significantly influence both types of deficits.

scholarly journals THE FACTORS ANALYSIS THAT INFLUENCE ONINFLATIONIN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 302-307
Author(s):  
Helmi Agus Salim ◽  
Nely Supeni
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Rate Coefficient ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Simultaneous Test ◽  
Factors Analysis ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

MBA –JournalofManagementandBusinessAplicationPage 302MBAJournalofManagementandBusinessAplicationTHE FACTORS ANALYSIS THAT INFLUENCE ONINFLATIONIN INDONESIAHelmi Agus Salim1Nely Supeni2Higher Education of Economic MandalaEmail: [email protected] is an interesting topic to discuss because it has a broad impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as on economic growth, product competitiveness, interest rates and income distribution. Inflation is a dilemma that haunts the economy, especially developing countries especially Indonesia is a country with an estimated economic level in the world. Therefore there are several things that will be studied and examined to find out these problems including the effect of fuel subsidies, the effect of the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar, the influence of interest rates, and the influence of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the inflation rate in Indonesia. The research method for analyzing data used is multiple regression. The results showed the Subsidy Variable (LS) had a positive regression coefficient of 0.1270 to inflation, the exchange rate coefficient (LK) was 0.5915 to inflation, the value of the interest rate coefficient (LSB) was -0.88638 to inflation, the GDP coefficient (LG) is 0.1489 of inflation. Based on the simultaneous test, it can be seen that the F statistic is 390 with a prob (F-statistic) of less than one percent, so these statistics mean that together the independent variables in the research model include the value of government subsidies, the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the USD, interest rates, and Gross Domestic Product / GDP of Indonesia together influence the inflation rate in Indonesia.Keywords:Inflation, Rupiah Exchange Rate, Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product

scholarly journals Analysis of Macroeconomics Stability Control of ICI Countries (Indonesia, China, India) Based on Transmission of Monetary Policy through Interest Rate Channel

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 226-234
Author(s):  
Annisa Anggreini Siswanto ◽  
Ahmad Albar Tanjung ◽  
Irsad Lubis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

This study aims to analyze variable control of macroeconomic stability based on monetary policy transmission through interest rate channels in Indonesia, China, India (ICI). Variables used in the interest rate are rill interest rates, consumption, investment, gross domestic product, and inflation. This study used secondary data from 2000 to 2019. The results of the PVECM analysis through the interest rate channel show that the control of economic stability of the ICI country is carried out by investment variables and gross domestic product in the short term, while in the long run it is carried out by consumption, investment and gross domestic product. The results of the IRF analysis are the response stability of all variables is formed in the medium and long term periods. The results of the FEVD analysis show that there are variables that have the greatest contribution in the variable itself either in the short, medium, long term. The results of the interaction analysis of each variable transmission of monetary policy through interest rates can maintain and control the economic stability of the ICI country. Keywords: Interest Rate Channel, Interest Rate, Consumption, Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Inflation.

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP EKSPOR DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 300-317
Author(s):  
Okta Rabiana Risma ◽  
T. Zulham ◽  
Taufiq C. Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Difference

This research aims to analyze the level of exports in Indonesia by using Time Series data from the year 1990 to 2015 against a variable interest rate loands, gross domestic product, and the exchange rate. Methods of analysis used i.e, Auto Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL). The results showed that the three variables have no Granger which is caused by the difference of the order on the test stasioner. Based on a test of wald for the short term that gained and the long-term gross domestic product, exchange rates and interest rates significantly influential credit toward export.Keywords:ARDL, export, interest rate loands, gross domestic product, exchange rates.AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat ekspor di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data Time Series dari tahun 1990 sampai 2015 terhadap variabel suku bunga kredit, produk domestik bruto, dan nilai tukar. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu AutoRegressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL).Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ketiga variabel tidak memiliki kointegrasi yang disebabkan oleh perbedaan ordo pada uji stasionernya. Berdasarkan uji wald didapat bahwa untuk jangka pendek dan jangka panjang produk domestik bruto, nilai tukar dan suku bunga kredit berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ekspor.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 multiplier effects of tourism on the Greek economy

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662094654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore Mariolis ◽  
Nikolaos Rodousakis ◽  
George Soklis
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
Multiplier Effects ◽  
Balance Deficit

Using a multisectoral model and data from the Supply and Use Tables, this article estimates the COVID-19 multiplier effects of tourism on gross domestic product (GDP), total employment, and trade balance of the Greek economy. The results indicate that a—not-unexpected—decrease of international travel receipts in the range of 3.5 to 10.5 billion euros would lead to a decrease in GDP of about 2.0% to 6.0%, a decrease in the levels of employment of about 2.1% to 6.4% and an increase in the trade balance deficit of about 2.4 to 7.1 billion euros, respectively.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF INTEREST RATE, INFLATION AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT TO DEMAND FOR PROPERTY CREDIT IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 308
Author(s):  
Ivan Pradana Putra ◽  
Wasiaturrahma Wasiaturrahma
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
The Interest Rate

An increase in credit, especially consumption credit, can trigger aggregate demand growth above potential output which causes the economy to heat up. This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, inflation, and gross domestic product (GDP), on the demand for property credit in Indonesia with the period January 2011 – December 2018. The results show that in the short term, the interest rate lag 1 and lag 2, inflation lag 1, and GDP significantly influence the demand for peoperty credit. While, in the long term, only the interest rates and GDP significantly influence to the demand for property credit.Keywords: Property Credit, Interest Rates, Inflation, GDP, ARDL JEL: C22, E51, G21 

scholarly journals Empirical Relationship of Exchange Rate with Inflation, International Trade and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Pakistan’s Economy

2019 ◽  
pp. 171-182
Author(s):  
Erum Khushnood Zahid Shaikh ◽  
Zahid H. Channa ◽  
Mehwish Bhutto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Relationship Of

In the modern world, the exchange rate plays an important role in measuring the strength of country’s economy in global economic conditions. An exchange rate is an important tool for controlling various macro-economic variables, and it is itself affected by different macro-economic variables. Pakistan is a developing country of the world and its unstable economy faces high variability in the exchange rate or devaluation of the domestic currency. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship of an exchange rate with selected macro-economic variables (i.e. import, GDP, Inflation & export), with a special focus on Pakistan’s economy. It also aims at finding out the degree of strength at which selected independent variables to leave a significant impact on the exchange rate in the economy of Pakistan (i.e. during the period of 1992 to 2017). For this secondary database study, data extracted from official website of World Bank, State Bank of Pakistan and Economic Surveys of Pakistan. Multiple regression models were used to measure the empirical impact of selected independent variables on exchange rate. Findings show that the Import and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have a significant negative impact on exchange rate whereas, export and inflation have a significant positive impact on the exchange rate in the economy of Pakistan. The study recommends that the Government of Pakistan should adapt to make its exchange rate policy more effective through high production, more export with a reduction of import and price stability.

scholarly journals PENGARUH FAKTOR INTERNAL DAN FAKTOR MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP STABILITAS BANK UMUM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2012-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 2062
Author(s):  
Dian Rizqi Lestari ◽  
Noven Suprayogi
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Annual Report ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Score Method ◽  
Size Efficiency

ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh ukuran bank, efisiensi, capital buffer, PDB, Inflasi, dan suku bunga terhadap tingkat stabilitas Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia periode 2012-2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel dan metode z-score dalam mengukur stabilitas. Data diambil dari website resmi Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan annual report masing masing bank umum syariah. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan variabel ukuran bank (size), efisiensi, capital buffer, PDB (Produk Domestik Bruto), inflasi dan suku bunga (BI rate) secara simultan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan. Kata Kunci: Stabilitas, Bank Umum Syariah, ukuran bank, efisiensi, capital buffer, PDB, Inflasi, suku bunga ABSTRACTThis study aims to determine the effect of bank size, efficiency, capital buffer, GDP, inflation, and interest rates on the level of stability of Sharia Commercial Banks in Indonesia for the period of 2012-2018. This study uses panel data and z-score method in measuring stability. This study used data obtained from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency and the annual report of each Islamic commercial bank. The results of this study indicate that the variable of bank size, efficiency, capital buffer, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation and interest rates (BI rate) simultaneously have a significant effect.Keywords: Stability, Sharia Commercial Banks, bank size, efficiency, capital buffer, GDP, inflation, and interest rates

scholarly journals An analysis of the relationship of inflation and unemployment to the gross domestic product (gdp) in zimbabwe

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-162
Author(s):  
Tendai Makoni
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Yearly Data

The time series yearly data for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and unemployment from 1980 to 2012 was used in the study. First difference of the logged data became stationary as suggested by the time series plots. Johansen Maximum Likelihood Cointegration test indicated a long-run relationship among the variables. Granger Causality tests suggested unidirectional causality between inflation and GDP, implying that GDP is Granger caused by inflation in Zimbabwe. Another unidirectional causality was noted between unemployment and inflation. The causality between unemployment and inflation imply that unemployment do affect GDP indirectly since unemployment influences inflation which in turn positively affect GDP.

scholarly journals Some Economic Aggregates for Canadian Forest Industries

1988 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 355-359
Author(s):  
James Dobie
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Employee Productivity ◽  
Forest Economics ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Regional Impacts ◽  
Forest Industries ◽  
Merchandise Trade

This article presents economic aggregates for the forest industries in Canada with some discussion on Gross Domestic Product, regional impacts, external trade, employment and multipliers.The goods-producing sector in recent years has comprised 40% of the economy, with manufacturing being 50% of goods-producing or 20% of the total economy. Forest-based industries in aggregate are diminishing over time in their contribution to the economy, dropping from 5.1% of total GDP in the early 1960s to 3.5% in the early 1980s. Wood industries and paper and allied industries together constituted 14% of manufacturing GDP in 1986, down from 21% in 1961.Forest products exports, with a surplus of $13.5 billion in 1986, contribute significantly to Canada's merchandise trade balance. Employee productivity has been growing recently at 5.33% per annum. If there are no increases in volume of timber harvested, increasing productivity will result in employment reductions. Keywords: Forest Economics, Gross Domestic Product, Productivity, and Multipliers.

Koncepcje rozwiązania kryzysu ekonomicznego przez dominujące polskie partie polityczne w latach 2008–2009

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (254) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Barszcz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Subject

The subject of the article is the political concepts of the last global financial crisis, whichbegan in Poland in 2008. In the study of political party and government demands for theeconomic crisis, a comparative and quantitative approach was used in the form of statisticaldata on growth of Gross Domestic Product and the adopted budget deficit and its relation toGross domestic product. Research covers the years 2008–2009.Keywords: financial crisis, political programs, political declarations

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