scholarly journals Statistical Modeling of the Large Open Economy of the U.S.

2017 ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
О. М. Simachova

The open economy phenomenon draws close attention of researchers in the era of global economy and trans-nationalization of international economic relations. Along with strong impact on international market and global interest rate, such economies are capable to have significant effects for global conjuncture and determine global factors of economic development. Main sources of strength of the American economy are analyzed (rich natural and human resources, strong relations with permanent and reliable trade partners and neighboring countries, the largest financial system and the most reliable world currency). It is argued that large companies accounting for a major part of the total foreign direct investment of the U.S. are the fundament for the American economy and the main conduit of the country’s economic and political interests. Selected macroeconomic indicators of the U.S. are analyzed, to make economic diagnostics of the current performance of the American economy The statistical multifactor regression model built by the method of least squares is proposed. Results of the analysis demonstrate negative statistical impact of unemployment and increasing energy dependence on GDP by PPP, and positive statistical impact of household consumption on future development of the American economy It is argued that given the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, scientists should examine best practices of leading countries of the world in issues of economic balancing and sources of economic growth, to elaborate reasonable recommendations with due consideration to national specifics. The American economy is a good example of market model operation in 21 century.

1984 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 593-612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Marshall

An effective American immigration policy has been complicated by the diversity of political interests and the absence of reliable statistics to determine the magnitude of the impact on the American economy. Estimates1 of the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. range from one to twelve million.2 While political biases and complexities and data inadequacies complicate our analysis, some generalizations, examined in this essay, seem to be confirmed by worldwide experience.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (15) ◽  
pp. 125-137
Author(s):  
Pawel Mlodkowski

This note is a systematic review of arguments provided by Feldstein (2008) on the necessity for global readjustments, both in the U.S. and in main trading partners. The purpose is to address the main arguments in the scientific and political debate on persistent To date, there has been no publication that challenged the opinions leading to totally wrong forecasts concerning the global imbalance. With a perspective of more than 10 years of post-2008-crisis developments, and together with empirical evidence one can easily see how erroneous were the arguments formulated in 2008. The tasks included a systematic review of all arguments formulated by Martin Feldstein in 2008, and casting them against empirical evidence. The U.S. current account (CA) deficit has continued for many years, since 1982, and has not changed, as foreseen by Feldstein. The primary method is a simple comparative analysis, supported by basic macroeconomic data. They allow to reveal multiple processes leading to further deterioration of the U.S. trade balance. Neither savings rate domestically nor abroad adjusted to give a basis for solving the global imbalance. In the same time, all traditional arguments presented on global imbalances seem undeniable. However, an alternative interpretation of the imbalance does not recognize the CA deficit as “a gift to the U.S. economy”. This paper sheds new light on the “global imbalance”, suggesting that increasing domestic absorption by China may be an important factor in resolving the U.S. problematic and persistent trade deficit. Disaster-scenarios may be not there in the U.S. to experience. Future developments may be far from those announced, and previously expected by Feldstein in his seminal paper. A careful reader may conclude that all coming changes and adjustments will be slow, gradual, and will not cause any major issues in the global economy. Such conclusions seem most justified by hard data and therefore encouraging. As the topic remains central to open economy empirical macroeconomics, continuation of studies on this issue seems natural. The U.S. and China will remain the biggest economies, and, as such, they are central to the global situation.


China Report ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Quang Thuan

After the eighteenth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, China adjusted its diplomatic strategy and transformed its pattern of economic development. This has had and will continue to have both a positive and a negative impact on the international financial institutions and the regional and global economy. The ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) strategy, combined with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the internationalisation of the yuan, is the main focus, and exerts a strong impact on the existing international financial institutions as well as the economic relations between China and many other countries in the world. It has attracted many developed and developing countries to join the AIIB. It also has made many emerging economies become closely linked to China. Moreover, it contributes to the emergence of many ‘asymmetric’ pairs of economic relations between China and its neighbours. China is now connected with Europe through an overland route as well as through the boosting of economic, trade and investment ties between Asia and Europe. Furthermore, while Europe has been concerned about China’s unfair competition and the dependence on Chinese investment, ASEAN has increasingly deepened the mutual economic dependence between itself and Beijing. A negative outcome of this is the rising economic dependence on China of quite a few ASEAN member states, including Vietnam.


2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
George C. Romeo ◽  
James J. McKinney

Joseph Hardcastle was one of the foremost authorities on subjects connected with the mathematics of finance and other topics in accounting in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. As a teacher, author, and leader in the profession, he figured prominently in the elevation of accountancy. Hardcastle is relatively unknown in the literature except for having the distinction of scoring the highest grades on the first CPA exam in New York in 1896. However, he was well respected during his time as one of the premier theorists in accounting and was awarded an honorary degree of Master of Letters by New York University. Because of his prolific writings, his teaching of future accountants, and his interactions with members of the Institute of Accounts, he had a strong impact on the “science of accounts,” the dominant accounting theory in the U.S. at the turn of the century.


2011 ◽  
Vol 113 (4) ◽  
pp. 735-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamel K. Donnor

Background By a 5–4 margin, the U.S. Supreme Court in Parents Involved in Community Schools v. Seattle School District No. 1 declared that voluntary public school integration programs were unconstitutional. Citing the prospective harm that students and their families might incur from being denied admission to the high school of their choice, the Supreme Court declared that the plaintiffs, Parents Involved in Community Schools (PICS), had a valid claim of injury by asserting a interest in not being forced to compete for seats at certain high schools in a system that uses race as a deciding factor in many of its admissions decisions. Purpose The goal of the article is to discuss how conceptions of harm and fairness as articulated in Parents Involved in Community Schools v. Seattle School District No. 1 privilege the self-interests of White students and families over the educational needs of students of color. Research Design This article is a document analysis. Conclusions By referencing the Brown v. Board of Education of Topeka decision of 1954 (Brown I) to buttress its decision, the U.S. Supreme Court has determined that programmatic efforts to ensure students of color access to quality learning environments are inherently ominous. The dilemma moving forward for policy makers and scholars concerned with the educational advancement of students of color is not to develop new ways to integrate America's public schools or reconcile the gaps in the Supreme Court's logic, but rather to craft programs and policies for students of color around the human development and workforce needs of the global economy.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Aoran Peng ◽  
Jessica Menold ◽  
Scarlett Miller

Abstract There has been a plethora of design theory and methodology research conducted to answer important questions centered around how ideas are developed and translated into successful products. Understanding this is vital because of the role creativity and innovation have in long-term economic success. However, most of this research have focused on U.S. samples, leaving to question if differences exist across cultural borders. Answering this question is key to supporting a successful global economy. The current work provides a first step at answering this question by examining similarities and differences in concept generation and screening practices between students in an emerging market, Morocco, and those in a more established market, the U.S during a design thinking workshop. Our results show that while students in the U.S. sample produced more ideas than the Moroccan sample, there was no difference in the perceived quality of ideas generated (idea goodness). In addition, while U.S. women were found to produce more ideas than U.S. men, there were no gender effects for students in the Moroccan sample. Finally, the results show that ideas with low goodness had a higher probability of passing concept screening if it was evaluated by its owner regardless of the population studied – identifying the potential impact of ownership bias across cultures. As a whole, these results suggest that key aspects of design theory and methodology research may in fact translate across cultures but also identified key areas for further investigation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (256) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vargas ◽  
Daniela Hess

Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.


Author(s):  
I. Danilin

The “technological war” between the United States and China that started in 2017–2018 raises a number of questions about the future role of technological development as a factor in relations between superpowers. Analysis shows that for the United States this conflict is caused by changing balance of risks and benefits of the liberal model of globalization due to the rise of China`s power and growing geopolitical tensions between the two nations. In this context, emerging, especially digital, technologies appear to be a new battlefield between superpowers. Within the realist framework, actors consider emerging technologies as a key factor for strengthening their global postures. This, among other things, contributes to securitized technological agenda and strengthens its geopolitical dimension. Neo-technonationalism has become the platform that integrates different processes and goals into new U.S. policy. Although historically neo-technonationalism took its roots in Asia, the evolving market situation prompted the United States to rethink existing approaches and to upgrade the techno-nationalist dimension of its policy. Considering similar policies of China and the EU (i. e. the European digital sovereignty policy), this trend shapes new realities of technological “blocs”, the struggle for expansion of technological platforms, and technological conflicts. Taking into account prospective development needs of the global economy and future specification of mutual interest areas, as new digital technologies mature, the ground for normalizing the dialogue between the superpowers will emerge. However, at least in the U.S.–China case, this issue will be complicated by geopolitical contradictions that leave little room for any serious compromise.


2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 01030
Author(s):  
Ladislav Vagner

Research background: The disease, which broke out in December 2019 in the Chinese city of Wuhan and caused a pandemic around the world, has a constant impact on the economies of the countries even after almost two years. The issue of the effect of COVID-19 on the global economy and overall earnings management persists. Due to the topicality of the problem, we focused on the impacts and measures affecting the company’s operation. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this research article is to summarize current information on coronavirus and its effects almost two years after the outbreak. Additionally, outline three different scenarios that could occur. We also took into consideration scientific sources that deal with the shock of COVID-19. In addition, we summarize the opinions of scientific authors. Methods: Within the methodology, we used mainly the analysis and obtaining an objective picture of the current situation in the world. Following the outbreak of the pandemic, there have been significant inconstancies in GDP. Subsequently, we focus on the development of individual selected macro indicators that best describe the global economy. Findings & Value added: Finally, we offer three scenarios that outline three different situations that may occur, which we worked on based on a scenario analysis based on a modification of the sensitivity analysis, to specify future development scenarios based on macroeconomic indicators.


2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 01014
Author(s):  
Vladislav Kaputa ◽  
Frederik Kvočák ◽  
Miroslava Triznová ◽  
Andrej Tomić ◽  
Hana Maťová

Research background: The coronavirus pandemic in 2020 had a significant impact on all aspects of life, from the point of view of the individual by forcing social isolation, moving work and study to the home, enormous pressure on the social and health system, but also by forcing closures of services and direct contact with customers. These, as well as other factors, have also had an impact on the performance of economies around the world. Purpose of the article: The paper aims to evaluate the development of the world's major economies in terms of macroeconomic indicators and foreign trade in the pandemic period and previous periods. The social and environmental aspects of the impact of the pandemic on selected economies are also reflected. Methods: Analysis of the main macroeconomic data, comparison and synthesis of findings. Findings & Value added: The interdependence of economies and interconnectedness of markets on transport routes associated with reduced mobility, forced isolation of people and death of economic activity had a significant impact on all the observed indicators, where a significant decline in GDP could be observed in all countries except China. This country was the only one that managed to keep GDP growth in positive numbers. Unemployment development was not equal in the observed economies due to different labour market environment. On the contrary, the environment has benefited in some way.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document