Fuzzy logic based risk assessment system giving individualized advice for metabolic syndrome and fatal cardiovascular diseases

The problem of risk assessment at the stages of the product life cycle using both qualitative and quantitative approaches is investigated, and a generalized algorithm for selecting a fuzzy risk assessment model with different input data and system requirements is proposed for the effective use of statistical information and expert assessments. The "risk-based approach" allows to reduce the cost of correcting possible errors in the future and reduce the uncertainty when performing subsequent actions. It is noted that the results of SWOT analysis, as a rule, are of a qualitative descriptive nature, and do not contain specific recommendations. The provisions of modern standards on risk analysis are analyzed and the classification of risk analysis methods is given in accordance with the provisions of the national standard GOST R 58771-2019 "Risk management. Technologies for risk assessment", in which the key is the concept of uncertainty, estimated using different scales of gradation of risk damage and probability of its occurrence. An approach based on fuzzy logic and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model is proposed, which allows to present the used criteria in a con-venient form and implement a logical conclusion using simple and visual production rules. At the same time, the effectiveness and accuracy of the developed risk assessment system based on fuzzy logic is mainly determined by the quality of expert information and the consistency of the methods used to obtain it. To improve the accuracy of the results, it is proposed to use collective expert estimates with subsequent analysis of the consistency of the obtained expert estimates by determining the coefficients of variation, rank correlation, concordation, and so on. A generalized algorithm of expert assessment is presented, which is recommended to follow when developing expert systems for risk analysis. Various models of fuzzy inference (Mamdani, Takagi-Sugeno, hybrid neuro-fuzzy inference) are considered. An algorithm for constructing a fuzzy risk analysis system based on an effective method for obtaining expert assessments and analyzing statistical information is proposed. It is suggested that if there is a priori information about previously occurred events that can be used for risk analysis and fore casting, the fuzzy conclusion should be refined using widely known methods of mathematical statistics, optimization algorithms, for example, gradient descent, simplex method or genetic algorithms. An example of developing a risk assessment system when an enterprise enters into contracts with both the customer and co-executors is given.

Download Full-text

Lipid profile: a conduit in the progression from psoriasis to cardiovascular disease

International Journal of Advances in Medicine ◽

10.18203/2349-3933.ijam20170105 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 173

Author(s):

Samir Sahu ◽

Ellora Devi ◽

Anirban Poddar ◽

Subhashree Ray

Keyword(s):

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Metabolic Syndrome ◽

Risk Factor ◽

Cardiovascular Diseases ◽

Lipid Profile ◽

Independent Risk Factor ◽

Healthy Controls ◽

Significant Elevation ◽

Profile Estimation

Background: Psoriasis although a disease of the skin has been reported to be associated with metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome in turn is associated with dyslipidemia which is a independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Our study therefore aims to assess lipid profile in patients with psoriasis with an objective to observe and report any significant deviations in the same as compared to healthy controls.Methods: 25 patients with psoriasis and 25 age, sex matched healthy controls were recruited in this study and lipid profile was estimated using commercially available reagent kit which employs the CHOD-PAP method.Results: Significant elevation in levels of total cholesterol, triglycerides, VLDL and cholesterol/HDL ratio was observed. Elevated although was observed in case of LDL and HDL levels, but it was statistically insignificant.Conclusions: Dyslipidemia was found to be prevalent in psoriasis patients. Dyslipidemia is an independent risk factor for development of cardiovascular disease. Dyslipidemia in psoriasis therefore clearly suggests an inherent predisposition of psoriasis patients to suffer from cardiovascular diseases. A lipid profile estimation in these patients therefore might serve as an important tool for risk assessment for cardiovascular disease, thereby aiding a timely intervention.

Download Full-text

p-EMA (II): evaluating ecological risks of pesticides for a farm-level risk assessment system

Agronomie ◽

10.1051/agro:2002075 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 75-84 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Andy Hart ◽

Colin D. Brown ◽

Kathy A. Lewis ◽

John Tzilivakis

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Assessment System ◽

Ecological Risks ◽

Farm Level

Download Full-text

Desynchronosis markers in risk assessment of metabolic syndrome development

Medical alphabet ◽

10.33667/2078-5631-2019-1-4(379)-21-26 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (4) ◽

pp. 21-26 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

O. V. Bobko ◽

O. V. Tikhomirova ◽

N. N. Zybina ◽

O. A. Klitsenko

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Metabolic Syndrome ◽

Threshold Values ◽

Fat Tissue ◽

Diurnal Dynamics ◽

Laboratory Markers ◽

Dyscirculatory Encephalopathy ◽

Melatonin Production ◽

Pai 1 ◽

Logistic Regression Equation

The objective of the study is to show significance of desynchronosis laboratory markers in risk assessment of metabolic syndrome (MS) development. Materials and Methods. There were examined 98 men, aged 43-88, diagnosed with dyscirculatory encephalopathy showing one and more risk factors for development of cardiovascular diseases. They were divided into 2 groups according to the international guidelines of 2009: with MS (n = 61) and without MS (n = 37). Parameters of fats, glucose metabolism, inflammatory mediators, fat tissue metabolism markers, melatonin metabolite excretion (6-sulfatoxymelatonin) were defined in blood serum and urine. Results. The article presents data on changes in leptin, adiponectin, PAI-1, testosterone production and 6-sulfatoxymela-tonin excretion in patients with MS. There are calculated threshold values of these markers definitely increasing MS risk and logistic regression equation which allows assessing MS risk for an individual patient. Conclusion. Detected disorders of melatonin synthesis diurnal dynamics in patients with MS and interconnection between melatonin production and adiponectin, leptin, PAI-1, testosterone synthesis allow considering these parameters as desynchronosis markers significant for MS development.

Download Full-text

The role of omentin in inflammation and metabolic syndrome risk assessment in women with PCO-S

Endocrine Abstracts ◽

10.1530/endoabs.63.p1119 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Iwona Zieleń-Zynek ◽

Joanna Kowalska ◽

Nowak Justyna ◽

Barbara Zubelewicz-Szkodzińska

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Metabolic Syndrome

Download Full-text

IRISK METHOD FOR SECURITY ESTIMATION OF THE SIMULATION POLYGON FOR THE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFORMATION RESOURCES

Visnyk Universytetu “Ukraina” ◽

10.36994/2707-4110-2019-2-23-27 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Bogdan Korniyenko ◽

Lilia Galata

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Information System ◽

Information Security ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Information Resources ◽

Security System ◽

Assessment System ◽

Automated System ◽

Information Risk ◽

Critical Information

In this article, the research of information system protection by ana ly zing the risks for identifying threats for information security is considered. Information risk analysis is periodically conducted to identify information security threats and test the information security system. Currently, various information risk analysis techni ques exist and are being used, the main difference being the quantitative or qualitative risk assessment scales. On the basis of the existing methods of testing and evaluation of the vulnerabilities for the automated system, their advantages and disadvantages, for the possibility of further comparison of the spent resources and the security of the information system, the conclusion was made regarding the deter mi nation of the optimal method of testing the information security system in the context of the simulated polygon for the protection of critical information resources. A simula tion ground for the protection of critical information resources based on GNS3 application software has been developed and implemented. Among the considered methods of testing and risk analysis of the automated system, the optimal iRisk methodology was identified for testing the information security system on the basis of the simulated. The quantitative method Risk for security estimation is considered. Generalized iRisk risk assessment is calculated taking into account the following parameters: Vulnerabili ty — vulnerability assessment, Threat — threat assessment, Control — assessment of security measures. The methodology includes a common CVSS vul nerability assessment system, which allows you to use constantly relevant coefficients for the calculation of vulnerabilities, as well as have a list of all major vulnerabilities that are associated with all modern software products that can be used in the automated system. The known software and hardware vulnerabilities of the ground are considered and the resistance of the built network to specific threats by the iRisk method is calculated.

Download Full-text

Severity of Psoriasis Associated with Metabolic Syndrome

Revista de Chimie ◽

10.37358/rc.19.6.7278 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 70 (6) ◽

pp. 2072-2079

Author(s):

Ana Maria Alexandra Stanescu ◽

Constantin Stefani ◽

Ioana Veronica Grajdeanu ◽

Bogdan Serban ◽

Gheorghe Ciobanu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Metabolic Syndrome ◽

Cardiovascular Diseases ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Statistical Data ◽

Severe Psoriasis ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Chi Square ◽

Statistical Software ◽

Total Group ◽

Chi Square Test

Although extensively studied, psoriasis still has negative consequences and is associated with multiple comorbidities, including metabolic syndrome. The severity of psoriasis seems to influence the occurrence of diagnostic criteria for metabolic syndrome. 208 patients diagnosed with psoriasis were identified, who were divided into lots depending on the severity of psoriasis, but also to the presence or absence of metabolic syndrome. Interpretation of statistical data was done with SPSS V21 (Statistical Package for Social Science) and MEDCALC (Statistical Software). The coexistence of severe psoriasis with metabolic syndrome increases the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases by 2.97 or greater, with a confidence interval of [1.60, 5.51], than that of patients with severe psoriasis who have no metabolic syndrome. The hypothesis was statistically confirmed by p = 0.003. Analyzing the total group with psoriasis by severity, we found the following distribution: from the total number of 208 patients, 39 (18.8%) had severe psoriasis, 83 (39.9%) moderate psoriasis and 86 (41.3%) mild psoriasis. The higher incidence of metabolic syndrome in patients with psoriasis is evidenced by the Pearson Chi-Square test, where p [0.001. The association of metabolic syndrome in patients with psoriasis is evident. The more severe the psoriasis, the more likely it is to develop metabolic syndrome.

Download Full-text