scholarly journals Technology for risk assessment at product lifecycle stages using fuzzy logic

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 167-183
Author(s):  
A. N. Chesalin ◽  
S. Ya. Grodzenskiy ◽  
Pham Van Tu ◽  
M. Yu. Nilov ◽  
A. N. Agafonov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
National Standard ◽  
Expert Assessments

The problem of risk assessment at the stages of the product life cycle using both qualitative and quantitative approaches is investigated, and a generalized algorithm for selecting a fuzzy risk assessment model with different input data and system requirements is proposed for the effective use of statistical information and expert assessments. The "risk-based approach" allows to reduce the cost of correcting possible errors in the future and reduce the uncertainty when performing subsequent actions. It is noted that the results of SWOT analysis, as a rule, are of a qualitative descriptive nature, and do not contain specific recommendations. The provisions of modern standards on risk analysis are analyzed and the classification of risk analysis methods is given in accordance with the provisions of the national standard GOST R 58771-2019 "Risk management. Technologies for risk assessment", in which the key is the concept of uncertainty, estimated using different scales of gradation of risk damage and probability of its occurrence. An approach based on fuzzy logic and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model is proposed, which allows to present the used criteria in a con-venient form and implement a logical conclusion using simple and visual production rules. At the same time, the effectiveness and accuracy of the developed risk assessment system based on fuzzy logic is mainly determined by the quality of expert information and the consistency of the methods used to obtain it. To improve the accuracy of the results, it is proposed to use collective expert estimates with subsequent analysis of the consistency of the obtained expert estimates by determining the coefficients of variation, rank correlation, concordation, and so on. A generalized algorithm of expert assessment is presented, which is recommended to follow when developing expert systems for risk analysis. Various models of fuzzy inference (Mamdani, Takagi-Sugeno, hybrid neuro-fuzzy inference) are considered. An algorithm for constructing a fuzzy risk analysis system based on an effective method for obtaining expert assessments and analyzing statistical information is proposed. It is suggested that if there is a priori information about previously occurred events that can be used for risk analysis and fore casting, the fuzzy conclusion should be refined using widely known methods of mathematical statistics, optimization algorithms, for example, gradient descent, simplex method or genetic algorithms. An example of developing a risk assessment system when an enterprise enters into contracts with both the customer and co-executors is given.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Model for Risk Assessment of Machinery Failures

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejan V. Petrović ◽  
Miloš Tanasijević ◽  
Saša Stojadinović ◽  
Jelena Ivaz ◽  
Pavle Stojković
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

The main goal of this research was the development of an algorithm for the implementation of negative risk parameters in a synthesis model for a risk level assessment for a specific machine used in the mining industry. Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic theory, in combination with statistical methods, were applied to analyze the time picture state of the observed machine. Fuzzy logic is presented through fuzzy proposition and a fuzzy composition module. Using these tools, the symmetric position of the fuzzy sets with regard to class was used, and the symmetric fuzzy inference approach was used in an outcome calculation. The main benefit of the proposed model is being able to use numerical and linguistic data in a risk assessment model. The proposed risk assessment model, using fuzzy logic conclusions and min–max composition, was used on a mobile crushing machine. The results indicated that the risk level of the mobile crushing machine was in the “high” category, which means that it is necessary to introduce maintenance policies based on this high risk. The proposed risk assessment model is useful for any engineering system.

IRISK METHOD FOR SECURITY ESTIMATION OF THE SIMULATION POLYGON FOR THE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFORMATION RESOURCES

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Korniyenko ◽  
Lilia Galata
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information System ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Information Resources ◽  
Security System ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Automated System ◽  
Information Risk ◽  
Critical Information

In this article, the research of information system protection by ana­ ly­ zing the risks for identifying threats for information security is considered. Information risk analysis is periodically conducted to identify information security threats and test the information security system. Currently, various information risk analysis techni­ ques exist and are being used, the main difference being the quantitative or qualitative risk assessment scales. On the basis of the existing methods of testing and evaluation of the vulnerabilities for the automated system, their advantages and disadvantages, for the possibility of further comparison of the spent resources and the security of the information system, the conclusion was made regarding the deter­ mi­ nation of the optimal method of testing the information security system in the context of the simulated polygon for the protection of critical information resources. A simula­ tion ground for the protection of critical information resources based on GNS3 application software has been developed and implemented. Among the considered methods of testing and risk analysis of the automated system, the optimal iRisk methodology was identified for testing the information security system on the basis of the simulated. The quantitative method Risk for security estimation is considered. Generalized iRisk risk assessment is calculated taking into account the following parameters: Vulnerabili­ ty  — vulnerability assessment, Threat — threat assessment, Control — assessment of security measures. The methodology includes a common CVSS vul­ nerability assessment system, which allows you to use constantly relevant coefficients for the calculation of vulnerabilities, as well as have a list of all major vulnerabilities that are associated with all modern software products that can be used in the automated system. The known software and hardware vulnerabilities of the ground are considered and the resistance of the built network to specific threats by the iRisk method is calculated.

scholarly journals A Case Study of Flood Risk Evaluation Based on Emergy Theory and Cloud Model in Anyang Region, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 420
Author(s):  
Zening Wu ◽  
Yuhai Cui ◽  
Yuan Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergy Theory

With the progression of climate change, the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall have increased in many parts of the world, while the continuous acceleration of urbanization has made cities more vulnerable to floods. In order to effectively estimate and assess the risks brought by flood disasters, this paper proposes a regional flood disaster risk assessment model combining emergy theory and the cloud model. The emergy theory can measure many kinds of hazardous factor and convert them into unified solar emergy (sej) for quantification. The cloud model can transform the uncertainty in flood risk assessment into certainty in an appropriate way, making the urban flood risk assessment more accurate and effective. In this study, the flood risk assessment model combines the advantages of the two research methods to establish a natural and social dual flood risk assessment system. Based on this, the risk assessment system of the flood hazard cloud model is established. This model was used in a flood disaster risk assessment, and the risk level was divided into five levels: very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. Flood hazard risk results were obtained by using the entropy weight method and fuzzy transformation method. As an example for the application of this model, this paper focuses on the Anyang region which has a typical continental monsoon climate. The results show that the Anyang region has a serious flood disaster threat. Within this region, Linzhou County and Anyang County have very high levels of risk for flood disaster, while Hua County, Neihuang County, Wenfeng District and Beiguan District have high levels of risk for flood disaster. These areas are the core urban areas and the economic center of local administrative regions, with 70% of the industrial clusters being situated in these regions. Only with the coordinated development of regional flood control planning, economy, and population, and reductions in the uncertainty of existing flood control and drainage facilities can the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the region be maintained.

scholarly journals PROPOSING A NEW METHODOLOGY BASED ON FUZZY LOGIC FOR TUNNELLING RISK ASSESSMENT

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Construction Operations ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Mine Development ◽  
Civil Defence

Tunnels are artificial underground spaces that provide a capacity for particular goals such as storage, under-ground transportation, mine development, power and water treatment plants, civil defence. This shows that the tunnel construction is a key activity in developing infrastructure projects. In many situations, tunnelling projects find themselves involved in the situations where unexpected conditions threaten the continuity of the project. Such situations can arise from the prior knowledge limited by the underground unknown conditions. Therefore, a risk analysis that can take into account the uncertainties associated with the underground projects is needed to assess the existing risks and prioritize them for further protective measures and decisions in order to reduce, mitigate and/or even eliminate the risks involved in the project. For this reason, this paper proposes a risk assessment model based on the concepts of fuzzy set theory to evaluate risk events during the tunnel construction operations. To show the effectiveness of the proposed model, the results of the model are compared with those of the conventional risk assessment. The results demonstrate that the fuzzy inference system has a great potential to accurately model such problems.

scholarly journals Fuzzy logic based risk assessment system giving individualized advice for metabolic syndrome and fatal cardiovascular diseases

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 59-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayriye Korkmaz ◽  
Emre Canayaz ◽  
Sibel Birtane Akar ◽  
Zehra Aysun Altikardes
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Assessment System

Research on Risk Assessment Method and System Development of Small Ammonia Refrigeration Units

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Weihua Wang ◽  
Weike Jing ◽  
Jin Shi ◽  
Fakun Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
System Development ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Assessment Method

Abstract In recent years, ammonia leakage accidents occur frequently, which causes a great concern in China. Based on traditional risk analysis methods and the equipment characteristics, a risk evaluation method for small ammonia refrigeration units is proposed. The method includes a risk assessment model based on area division, a failure probability assessment method based on expert scoring system, a failure consequence assessment method based on regional population density and consequence mitigation measures, and a HAZOP risk correction method. Based on the proposed method, a risk assessment system of small ammonia refrigeration units is developed. This risk assessment method and system will provide a scientific basis to carry out the cold storage management in China.

scholarly journals Operational Risk Assessment of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy Systems Considering N-1 Accidents

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Liu ◽  
Yong Li ◽  
Yijia Cao ◽  
Zilong Zeng ◽  
Denis Sidorov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Coupled Systems ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Integrated Energy Systems ◽  
Integrated Energy System ◽  
Operation Status ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The reliability analysis method and risk assessment model for the traditional single network no longer meet the requirements of the risk analysis of coupled systems. This paper establishes a risk assessment system of electric-gas integrated energy system (EGIES) considering the risk security of components. According to the mathematical model of each component, the EGIES steady state analysis model considering the operation constraints is established to analyze the operation status of each component. Then the EGIES component accident set is established to simulate the accident consequences caused by the failure of each component to EGIES. Furthermore, EGIES risk assessment system is constructed to identify the vulnerability of EGIES components. Finally, the risk assessment of IEEE14-NG15 system is carried out. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Risk assessment model of investment business process in the forest industry

2020 ◽  
pp. 271-278
Author(s):  
Л.А. Чудовская ◽  
С.М. Галилеев ◽  
М.М. Галилеев
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Business Process ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Timber Industry ◽  
Current State ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Matlab Package

Рассмотрена оценка инвестиционного бизнес-процесса в отрасли лесопромышленного комплекса с помощью аппарата нечеткой логики. Модель позволяет оптимизировать работу транспортных узлов лесного комплекса, работу деревообрабатывающих предприятий, леспромхозов с точки зренияэффективности вложения инвестиций в условиях неопределенности современного состояния экономики. Рассмотрена модель оценки риска как задачи линейного программирования в нечеткой постановке. Использованы построенные функции принадлежности - треугольные и гауссовы на основе экспертных оценок. При решении задачи использован пакет MatLab с Toolbox Fuzzy Logic и метод Балаша. Полученные результаты показали работоспособность предлагаемой модели и возможность использования ее в различных отраслях лесопромышленного комплекса к оценке риска инвестиционного бизнес-процесса. The article considers the evaluation of the investment business process in the timber industry using fuzzy logic. The model makes it possible to optimize the operation of transport nodes of the forest complex, the work of woodworking enterprises, forestry enterprises in terms of investment efficiency in the conditions of uncertainty of the current state of the economy. The risk assessment model is considered as a linear programming problem in a fuzzy formulation. The constructed membership functions - triangular and Gaussian-based on expert estimates are used. The MatLab package with Toolbox Fuzzy Logic and the Balash method were used to solve the problem. The results obtained showed the efficiency of the proposed model and the possibility of using it in various sectors of the timber industry to assess the risk of investment business process.

scholarly journals A birdstrike risk assessment model and its application at Ordos Airport, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Hu ◽  
Pu Xing ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Gang Feng ◽  
Guisheng Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
New Model ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
Danger Level

AbstractBirdstrikes are an important threat to aviation safety. A standardized, scientific process for assessing birdstrike risk could prevent accidents, thereby improving the flight safety and reducing economic losses. However, China currently lacks a unified birdstrike risk assessment system. Here, we propose and validate a new model for assessing birdstrike risk in order to fill that need. The model consists of two elements. First, empirical data are collected on the occurrence of birds at the airport and in a surrounding 8 km buffer. Second, each species is evaluated with a risk assessment matrix that takes into account the number of birds, weight, flight altitude, a tendency to cluster, and range of activity. These five factors allow each species to be divided into one of three risk levels: high danger (level 3), moderate danger (level 2) and low danger (level 1). We propose corresponding birdstrike prevention measures for each level. We apply this method to the civil aviation airport in Ordos, China. We found that 20 of the 118 species of birds in and around the airport were high danger birds (level 3). To validate this process, we compared these species with records of birdstrike accidents in a database maintained by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) for 2007–2016. We found that 42% of the species we identified as high risk had been involved in at least one birdstrike accident, and that the remaining 58% belonged to families that appeared in the database. The high degree of overlap gives us high confidence in the practicality of our risk assessment model, which is based on the risk management concept of ISO 31000. Critically, this new model and method for predicting bird strike risk can be replicated at other airports around the world, even where no extensive records have been kept of past birdstrikes.

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS AND FEATURES OF THEIR USE IN HOUSING CONSTRUCTION FINANCING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Balanska ◽  
◽  
Vasyl Kozyk ◽  
Anna Panchenko ◽  
Volodymyr Melnyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Housing Construction ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Financing Mechanism ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level

The article examines modern methods of risk assessment, analyzes their advantages and disadvantages, as well as features of use. In particular, it is determined that most of them are based on the use of statistical data and postulates of probability theory. In the case when obtaining the necessary initial data is difficult, the methods of analogues or expert assessments are used, but they are subjective. In a separate group, we can distinguish methods that are based on the use of mathematical modeling, such as the scenarios method , project sensitivity analysis or game theory. Housing construction is characterized by a high level of risk, and the specifics of the industry complicate its unambiguous assessment and, consequently, its management. Therefore, to effectively manage the risks of financing the housing construction, it is necessary to choose an assessment method that can provide the most accurate result. The amount of risk in housing construction financing directly depends on the chosen financing mechanism, and its total value will consist of the sum of individual risks that arise at different stages of the process, and the amount of which can be estimated using different methods. It is necessary to develop a combined assessment model that not only combines different risks, but also considers them as a single object, the individual parts of which are not only related, but can also cross-influence each other. Such a model will combine economic-statistical, expert methods and methods of mathematical modeling.

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