Flood estimation of Gangabal lake in Indus river basin using MIKE 11

2021 ◽  
pp. 269-277
Author(s):  
Shailesh Kumar ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
Sunidhi Supriya
Keyword(s):  
Failure Time ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mike 11 ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Flood Estimation

The on-going retreat of glaciers in the Hindu Kush- Himalaya has been reported to be attributed to global warming in the recent years. While deglaciation may cause a suite of impact, one of the most visible and tangible impact is the formation of glacial lake. Large flash floods resulting from these types of lakes can be responsible for significant loss of lives and property. In this study a methodological approach for the GLOF risk analysis is presented. A glacial lake outburst hydrograph was simulated in case of worst case scenario using a dam break model in MIKE 11 for Gangabal lake. The peak discharge were found to be of the order of 8791, 9991, 11089 cumecs for breach width 80,100,120 meters respectively at failure time of 60 minutes.

Surviving Population Reliability Projection Methods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley Krug ◽  
Lyndon Lamborn ◽  
Alireza Kohandehghan ◽  
Stuart Guest ◽  
Mahmoud Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Failure Time ◽  
Defect Density ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Model Material ◽  
Defect Size ◽  
Specific Time ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Pressure Cycling ◽  
Load Conditions

Abstract While the uncertainties associated with actual pipeline asset condition demand the use of probabilistic methodologies to assess the integrity of pipelines, a realistic and validated probabilistic method to demonstrate post-hydrostatic test (PHT) integrity has eluded the pipeline industry. Traditionally, deterministic methods grow a “just-surviving flaw” (JSF) under worst-case pressure cycling to predict the remaining life of the most severe imperfection which could have survived a high-pressure event, such as hydrostatic test. The deterministic analysis results in a JSF fatigue life but does not identify the likelihood that the flaw exists. Furthermore, identifying the most severe flaw is not intuitive and attempts to probabilistically model material variabilities have failed to match known historical PHT reliability. A pipeline operator has now developed a novel approach to the task of quantifying marginal pipeline reliability after hydrostatic tests. Rather than limiting random values to only material properties, potential defects are assigned sizes and pressure cycling values, randomly sampled from validated distributions of defect size and pressure cycling severity (equivalent to downstream location). The number of generated defects is determined by a validated defect density, and defect size remains limited to what could have physically survived the hydrostatic test. The question posed is no longer “what are possible sizes of JSF close to discharge pressure surviving to a specific time under known load conditions?”, but rather “what proportion of the pipeline segments with similar defect populations would survive to a specific time under known load conditions?”. This represents a fundamental paradigm shift away from considering only a worst-case scenario to the quantification of plausible pipeline health conditions. Monte Carlo simulation time is kept practical by using an equivalent load integral method to project crack growth. This proposed methodology was validated by applying it to a selection of pipeline segments with known historical fatigue failures following hydrostatic tests in order to quantify the predictability of each section’s reliability at the failure time. The initial validation of the method was found to reasonably predict the past incidents. This paper will discuss the methodology, input parameters including their distributions, methods for assigning defect size distributions and densities based on extrapolations of field nondestructive examination (NDE) and in-line inspection (ILI) data, and a minimum defect density floor established based on the PHT fatigue failure of a newly constructed pipeline. While this method originally targets PHT pipeline segments, the development of a similar method for pipelines managed exclusively by ILI data is under development. The largest potential flaw for ILI-managed assets is then dictated by what could have evaded ILI tool detection rather than what could have survived a hydrostatic test. Herein, the progress on this development and future suggested research will be provided.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

Risk-Based Robust Bidding Strategies for EVs’ Aggregators in Day-ahead Markets with Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelmoaty ◽  
Wessam Mesbah ◽  
Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal ◽  
Ali T. Alawami
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bidding Strategies ◽  
Wind Generators ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Optimal Bidding

In the recent electricity market framework, the profit of the generation companies depends on the decision of the operator on the schedule of its units, the energy price, and the optimal bidding strategies. Due to the expanded integration of uncertain renewable generators which is highly intermittent such as wind plants, the coordination with other facilities to mitigate the risks of imbalances is mandatory. Accordingly, coordination of wind generators with the evolutionary Electric Vehicles (EVs) is expected to boost the performance of the grid. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for the coordination between the wind-thermal generators and the EVs in a virtual<br>power plant (VPP) environment. The objective of maximizing the profit of the VPP Operator (VPPO) is studied. The optimal bidding strategy of the VPPO in the day-ahead market under uncertainties of wind power, energy<br>prices, imbalance prices, and demand is obtained for the worst case scenario. A case study is conducted to assess the e?effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of the VPPO's profit. A comparison between the proposed model and the scenario-based optimization was introduced. Our results confirmed that, although the conservative behavior of the worst-case robust optimization model, it helps the decision maker from the fluctuations of the uncertain parameters involved in the production and bidding processes. In addition, robust optimization is a more tractable problem and does not suffer from<br>the high computation burden associated with scenario-based stochastic programming. This makes it more practical for real-life scenarios.<br>

scholarly journals A Thermally Conductive Pt/AAO Catalyst for Hydrogen Passive Autocatalytic Recombination

Catalysts ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 491
Author(s):  
Alina E. Kozhukhova ◽  
Stephanus P. du Preez ◽  
Aleksander A. Malakhov ◽  
Dmitri G. Bessarabov
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Particle Size ◽  
Combustion Temperature ◽  
Volume Fraction ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Al Alloy ◽  
Impregnation Method ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Thermal Distribution

In this study, a Pt/anodized aluminum oxide (AAO) catalyst was prepared by the anodization of an Al alloy (Al6082, 97.5% Al), followed by the incorporation of Pt via an incipient wet impregnation method. Then, the Pt/AAO catalyst was evaluated for autocatalytic hydrogen recombination. The Pt/AAO catalyst’s morphological characteristics were determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The average Pt particle size was determined to be 3.0 ± 0.6 nm. This Pt/AAO catalyst was tested for the combustion of lean hydrogen (0.5–4 vol% H2 in the air) in a recombiner section testing station. The thermal distribution throughout the catalytic surface was investigated at 3 vol% hydrogen (H2) using an infrared camera. The Al/AAO system had a high thermal conductivity, which prevents the formation of hotspots (areas where localized surface temperature is higher than an average temperature across the entire catalyst surface). In turn, the Pt stability was enhanced during catalytic hydrogen combustion (CHC). A temperature gradient over 70 mm of the Pt/AAO catalyst was 23 °C and 42 °C for catalysts with uniform and nonuniform (worst-case scenario) Pt distributions. The commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code STAR-CCM+ was used to compare the experimentally observed and numerically simulated thermal distribution of the Pt/AAO catalyst. The effect of the initial H2 volume fraction on the combustion temperature and conversion of H2 was investigated. The activation energy for CHC on the Pt/AAO catalyst was 19.2 kJ/mol. Prolonged CHC was performed to assess the durability (reactive metal stability and catalytic activity) of the Pt/AAO catalyst. A stable combustion temperature of 162.8 ± 8.0 °C was maintained over 530 h of CHC. To confirm that Pt aggregation was avoided, the Pt particle size and distribution were determined by TEM before and after prolonged CHC.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Match Demands Using Ball-in-Play versus Whole Match Data in Professional Soccer Players of the English Championship

Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Dylan Mernagh ◽  
Anthony Weldon ◽  
Josh Wass ◽  
John Phillips ◽  
Nimai Parmar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Repeated Measures Design ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Peak Match ◽  
Playing Time

This is the first study to report the whole match, ball-in-play (BiP), ball-out-of-play (BoP), and Max BiP (worst case scenario phases of play) demands of professional soccer players competing in the English Championship. Effective playing time per soccer game is typically <60 min. When the ball is out of play, players spend time repositioning themselves, which is likely less physically demanding. Consequently, reporting whole match demands may under-report the physical requirements of soccer players. Twenty professional soccer players, categorized by position (defenders, midfielders, and forwards), participated in this study. A repeated measures design was used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data over eight professional soccer matches in the English Championship. Data were divided into whole match and BiP data, and BiP data were further sub-divided into different time points (30–60 s, 60–90 s, and >90 s), providing peak match demands. Whole match demands recorded were compared to BiP and Max BiP, with BiP data excluding all match stoppages, providing a more precise analysis of match demands. Whole match metrics were significantly lower than BiP metrics (p < 0.05), and Max BiP for 30–60 s was significantly higher than periods between 60–90 s and >90 s. No significant differences were found between positions. BiP analysis allows for a more accurate representation of the game and physical demands imposed on professional soccer players. Through having a clearer understanding of maximum game demands in professional soccer, practitioners can design more specific training methods to better prepare players for worst case scenario passages of play.

scholarly journals Trissolcus japonicus (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae) Causes Low Levels of Parasitism in Three North American Pentatomids Under Field Conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua M Milnes ◽  
Elizabeth H Beers
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Classical Biological Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Host Finding ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Egg Masses ◽  
Trissolcus Japonicus

Abstract Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead), an Asian parasitoid of Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), was first detected in North America in 2014. Although testing in quarantine facilities as a candidate for classical biological control is ongoing, adventive populations have appeared in multiple sites in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Extensive laboratory testing of T. japonicus against other North American pentatomids and H. halys has revealed a higher rate of parasitism of H. halys, but not complete host specificity. However, laboratory tests are necessarily artificial, in which many host finding and acceptance cues may be circumvented. We offered sentinel egg masses of three native pentatomid (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) pest species (Chinavia hilaris (Say), Euschistus conspersus Uhler, and Chlorochroa ligata (Say)) in a field paired-host assay in an area with a well-established adventive population of T. japonicus near Vancouver, WA. Overall, 67% of the H. halys egg masses were parasitized by T. japonicus during the 2-yr study. Despite the ‘worst case’ scenario for a field test (close proximity of the paired egg masses), the rate of parasitism (% eggs producing adult wasps) on all three native species was significantly less (0.4–8%) than that on H. halys eggs (77%). The levels of successful parasitism of T. japonicus of the three species are C. hilaris > E. conspersus > C. ligata. The potential impact of T. japonicus on these pentatomids is probably minimal.

scholarly journals Coupling Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations and Statistical Moments for Designing Healthy Indoor Spaces

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shamia Hoque ◽  
Firoza Omar
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Computational Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Air Flow ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Statistical Moments ◽  
Dispersion Pattern ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Indoor Spaces

Cross-contamination between occupants in an indoor space may occur due to transfer of infectious aerosols. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides detailed insight into particle transport in indoor spaces. However, such simulations are site-specific. This study couples CFD with statistical moments and establishes a framework that transitions site-specific results to generating guidelines for designing “healthy” indoor spaces. Eighteen cases were simulated, and three parameters were assessed: inlet/outlet location, air changes per hour, and the presence/absence of desks. Aerosol release due to a simulated “sneeze” in a two-dimensional ventilated space was applied as a test case. Mean, standard deviation, and skewness of the velocity profiles and particle locations gave an overall picture of the spread and movement of the air flow in the domain. A parameter or configuration did not dominate the values, confirming the significance of considering the combined influence of multiple parameters for determining localized air-flow characteristics. Particle clustering occurred more when the inlet was positioned above the outlet. The particle dispersion pattern could be classified into two time zones: “near time”, <60 s, and “far time”, >120 s. Based on dosage, the 18 cases were classified into three groups ranging from worst case scenario to best case scenario.

The MacArthur Maze Fire and Roadway Collapse: A “Worst Case Scenario” for Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher S. Bajwa ◽  
Earl P. Easton ◽  
Harold Adkins ◽  
Judith Cuta ◽  
Nicholas Klymyshyn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Fuel ◽  
Spent Nuclear Fuel ◽  
Steel Structure ◽  
Nuclear Regulatory Commission ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Regulatory Commission

In 2007, a severe transportation accident occurred near Oakland, California, at the interchange known as the “MacArthur Maze.” The accident involved a double tanker truck of gasoline overturning and bursting into flames. The subsequent fire reduced the strength of the supporting steel structure of an overhead interstate roadway causing the collapse of portions of that overpass onto the lower roadway in less than 20 minutes. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has analyzed what might have happened had a spent nuclear fuel transportation package been involved in this accident, to determine if there are any potential regulatory implications of this accident to the safe transport of spent nuclear fuel in the United States. This paper provides a summary of this effort, presents preliminary results and conclusions, and discusses future work related to the NRC’s analysis of the consequences of this type of severe accident.

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