On the Choice of Goals and Instruments of Monetary policy

2004 ◽  
pp. 4-19
Author(s):  
G. Fetisov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Constant Prices

There is the inherent contradiction in the present-time monetary policy -between the containment of the increase in the exchange rate of the rouble and too high Central Bank rate. This contradiction is caused by limiting the legislatively established goals of Bank of Russia to a target of inflation decrease. To provide macroeconomic stability under conditions of both high and low oil price conjuncture Bank of Russia should use diverse monetary and credit policy instruments including refinancing banking credits to enterprises and purchase of Russian government securities. Since the monetization of the Russian economy is low the threat of inflation strengthening as a result of increase of domestic credit is grossly overestimated. The evidence of this fact is the dynamics of monetary aggregates in constant prices and in terms of dollars as well as in proportion to GDP.

scholarly journals Price and output effects of Monetary policy in Low Income Countries: The Case of Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 478-499
Author(s):  
Nanda Kumar Dhakal ◽  
Mitra Prasad Timsina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Bound Test

This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation in Nepal. The impact on economic growth and inflation have been observed using monetary policy instruments/indicators such as CRR, bank rate, interbank rate, M1, M2, private sector credit based on quarterly data from first quarter of 2006 to fourth quarter of 2018. The impact on economic growth and inflation rate has been examined separately. The econometric methods like ADF test, ARDL Model, Bound Test, Error Correction Model, Residual Test and Stability test have been used in the study. The empirical results show that economic growth and inflation are influenced by monetary policy. CRR, bank rate, broad money and private sector credit are significant to have impact on economic growth. Likewise, money supply (M1 and M2) has impact on inflation. The result shows that it takes longer time to have impact of broad money and private sector credit on economic growth than on inflation.

scholarly journals CRITICAL ASPECTS OF THE EVALUATION OF MONEY AND CREDIT POLICY BASIC PRINCIPLES OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
pp. 120-133
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Dziubliuk ◽  
Vitalii Rudan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Monetary Regime ◽  
The World ◽  
National Bank

Introduction. The article deals with the problems and drawbacks of the formation of the fundamental principles of money and credit policy. The key elements of money and credit are considered. Among these elements the authors distinguished the goals and instruments of policy implementation, the monetary regime, mechanisms for ensuring price and exchange rate stability. On the basis of the results of critical analysis of the fundamentals of money and credit policy, the authors have worked out their own recommendations to optimize the document itself and the money and credit policy of the National Bank of Ukraine as a whole. Purpose. The research aims to determine the important weaknesses in the formation of the fundamental principles of money and credit policy as an integral strategic document to form the proposals for its optimization on the basis of the necessity to revise the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine in the direction of achieving financial stability and stimulating economic growth. Method (methodology). In the course of the research we have used the methods of system analysis to assess the effectiveness of the fundamental principles of money and credit policy; methods of analogy and comparison to study the money and credit policy instruments of the National Bank of Ukraine and the leading central banks of the world; statistical methods to analyse the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. Results On the basis of the complex analysis of the fundamental principles of monetary policy, the existence of the National Bank's surface analysis of global trends in the development of the world economy and possible risks for Ukraine has been substantiated. The ineffectiveness of scenario planning of the Ukrainian economy development has been proved. The incomplete account of risks that negatively affect the efficiency of money and credit policy has been considered. Particular attention is paid to analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments in the context of ensuring price stability and supporting sustainable economic growth. It has been developed a number of methodological recommendations concerning the introduction of transitional monetary regime, optimization of monetary policy instruments, in particular long-term refinancing instruments, improvement of the analysis of external shocks and scenario planning of economic development, grounding of more logical and structured approach to the construction of the fundamental principles of money and credit policy.

scholarly journals Stabilization policy of the state in the post-pandemic period

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 01001
Author(s):  
Armen Altunyan ◽  
Tatiana Kotcofana ◽  
Anastasiya Titova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Russian Economy

Research background: The coronavirus pandemic, which has affected all spheres of society and the economy, has formed new realities and conditions for modern world development. The governments of many countries have faced a choice of how to combine the security of citizens ’ lives and the need to resist the decline in production, employment, and income. Purpose of the article: The main purpose of the presented article is to study the instruments of stabilization policy during the pandemic and post-pandemic economy and to identify measures aimed at reorienting from ensuring monetary and budgetary stability to expanding effective demand and stimulating the economy. Methods: To conduct the study, we used official statistics data, the analysis of which allowed us to determine the degree of mutual influence of key parameters of economic development. Findings & Value added: The results show that in developed countries, support measures by monetary policy instruments are limited, so for the most part, fiscal mechanisms to support the population and business are implemented. In Russia, the opportunities to soften monetary policy with traditional monetary policy measures still retain some effectiveness. However, the current economic policy imposes a forced type of consumer behavior based on making financial decisions in the absence of choice, so such decisions form negative consequences — indebtedness and poverty. In this regard, recommendations are given for the implementation of stabilization policy instruments aimed at reorienting it from ensuring monetary and budgetary stability to stimulating the Russian economy and expanding the monetary base of demand.

Demand, supply, monetary policy, and oil price shocks in the Russian economy (Analysis based on the BVAR model with sign restrictions)

2020 ◽  
pp. 83-104
Author(s):  
D. A. Lomonosov ◽  
A. V. Polbin ◽  
N. D. Fokin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Sign Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

This paper considers a simple Bayesian vector autoregressive model for the Russian economy based on data for real GDP, GDP deflator and oil price as an exogenous variable that acts as a proxy variable for the terms of trade. Along with the impact of oil price shocks, the model estimates the impact of supply and demand shocks, the identification of which is based on the approach of sign restrictions. According to the results obtained, at the end of 2014 and in 2015, demand shocks had a positive impact on GDP growth, which can be interpreted as a positive effect of the ruble devaluation at the end of 2014. In the next years, demand shocks led mainly to a slowdown in economic growth. The paper also attempts to identify monetary policy shocks and assesses their impact on GDP, household consumption and investment. According to the results, the effect of monetary shocks in 2015—2019 on all endogenous variables was negative. However, an increase in the interest rate at the end of 2014 is identified mostly as an endogenous reaction to other shocks, and the effect of the monetary shock on GDP in 2015 is nearly zero. In 2017, monetary shocks slowed down GDP by 0.92 percentage points.

scholarly journals Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from India

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 206-219
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Rajat Setia
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Multiple Indicator ◽  
One Year ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

Abstract This paper examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate in a Multiple Indicator Approach (MIA) framework. This study has employed a monetary policy index of key monetary policy instruments in India (Bank rate, Cash Reserve Ratio, Repo and Reverse Repo rates). The study finds the empirical evidence for puzzling behavior of price level and exchange rate. Both price and exchange rate increase initially in response to a contractionary policy shock. Policy shocks affect output, inflation and exchange rate to an appreciable extent over a forecasting horizon of one year.

Monetary Policy Problems under Capital Inflow to Russia

2007 ◽  
pp. 4-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Ulyukaev ◽  
M. Kulikov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Capital Inflow ◽  
Private Capital ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Policy Problems

Russian macroeconomic tendencies of the past decade are described in the article. It is particularly mentioned that until recently foreign trade surplus was the main source of liquidity for the Russian economy. Since mid 2005 a noticeable foreign private capital inflow has started, creating a new liquidity source. A significant capital inflow may result in additional inflation and / or additional ruble appreciation while currently used monetary policy instruments appear to be ineffective in this situation. The description of the set of measures to soften negative impact of the capital inflow is also presented.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Russia

2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
The Real

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.

scholarly journals On the Limits of Macroprudential Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Kolasa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Collateral Constraints ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Additional Stabilization ◽  
The Interest Rate

AbstractThis paper studies how macroprudential policy tools applied to the housing market can complement the interest rate-based monetary policy in achieving one additional stabilization objective, defined as keeping either economic activity or credit at some exogenous (and possibly time-varying) levels. We show analytically in a canonical New Keynesian model with housing and collateral constraints that using the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, tax on credit or tax on property as additional policy instruments does not resolve the inflation-output volatility tradeoff. Perfect targeting of inflation and credit with monetary and macroprudential policy is possible only if the role of housing debt in the economy is sufficiently small. The identified limits to the considered policies are related to their predominantly intertemporal impact on decisions made by financially constrained agents, making them poor complements to monetary policy, which also operates at an intertemporal margin. These limits can be overcome if macroprudential policy is instead designed such that it sufficiently redistributes income between savers and borrowers.

scholarly journals A RECONSIDERATION OF THE DOCTRINAL FOUNDATIONS OF MONETARY POLICY RULES: FISHER VERSUS CHICAGO

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-82
Author(s):  
George S. Tavlas
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Direct Link ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules

There has long been a presumption that the price-level stabilization frameworks of Irving Fisher and Chicagoans Henry Simons and Lloyd Mints were essentially equivalent. I show that there were subtle, but important, differences in the rationales underlying the policies of Fisher and the Chicagoans. Fisher’s framework involved substantial discretion in the setting of the policy instruments; for the Chicagoans the objective of a policy rule was to tie the hands of the authorities in order to reduce discretion and, thus, monetary policy uncertainty. In contrast to Fisher, the Chicagoans provided assessments of the workings of alternative rules, assessed various criteria—including simplicity and reduction of political pressures—in the specification of rules, and concluded that rules would provide superior performance compared with discretion. Each of these characteristics provided a direct link to the rules-based framework of Milton Friedman. Like Friedman’s framework, Simons’s preferred rule targeted a policy instrument.

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