scholarly journals Vegetable Price Prediction using ARIMA

2021 ◽  
pp. 176-183
Author(s):  
Sindhuja T ◽  
Sakhi Chawda ◽  
Parimala Kanaga Devan Kailasam
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
Actual Cost ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Major Occupation

Agriculture is the major occupation of India. The farmers who are the backbone of the country are suffering in utter poverty. This is because they are unaware of the facts that happen in the market. Thereby, they sell their crops at a price much lower than the actual cost. Analyzing data over a time period regularly will lead to various insights and conclusions. These insights can pave way to understand the prices better. Hence, this system suggests ARIMA approach to develop a forecast model and predict, by considering the seasonality in prices over a period of time.

scholarly journals Research on GDP Forecast Analysis Combining BP Neural Network and ARIMA Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Shaobo Lu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
The Neural Network

Based on the BP neural network and the ARIMA model, this paper predicts the nonlinear residual of GDP and adds the predicted values of the two models to obtain the final predicted value of the model. First, the focus is on the ARMA model in the univariate time series. However, in real life, forecasts are often affected by many factors, so the following introduces the ARIMAX model in the multivariate time series. In the prediction process, the network structure and various parameters of the neural network are not given in a systematic way, so the operation of the neural network is affected by many factors. Each forecasting method has its scope of application and also has its own weaknesses caused by the characteristics of its own model. Secondly, this paper proposes an effective combination method according to the GDP characteristics and builds an improved algorithm BP neural network price prediction model, the research on the combination of GDP prediction model is currently mostly focused on the weighted form, and this article proposes another combination, namely, error correction. According to the price characteristics, we determine the appropriate number of hidden layer nodes and build a BP neural network price prediction model based on the improved algorithm. Validation of examples shows that the error-corrected GDP forecast model is also better than the weighted GDP forecast model, which shows that error correction is also a better combination of forecasting methods. The forecast results of BP neural network have lower errors and monthly prices. The relative error of prediction is about 2.5%. Through comparison with the prediction results of the ARIMA model, in the daily price prediction, the relative error of the BP neural network prediction is 1.5%, which is lower than the relative error of the ARIMA model of 2%.

scholarly journals Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziaul Haque Munim ◽  
Mohammad Hassan Shakil ◽  
Ilan Alon
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Test Sample ◽  
Training Sample ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Price Forecast ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Better Than

This study analyzes forecasts of Bitcoin price using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models. Employing the static forecast approach, we forecast next-day Bitcoin price both with and without re-estimation of the forecast model for each step. For cross-validation of forecast results, we consider two different training and test samples. In the first training-sample, NNAR performs better than ARIMA, while ARIMA outperforms NNAR in the second training-sample. Additionally, ARIMA with model re-estimation at each step outperforms NNAR in the two test-sample forecast periods. The Diebold Mariano test confirms the superiority of forecast results of ARIMA model over NNAR in the test-sample periods. Forecast performance of ARIMA models with and without re-estimation are identical for the estimated test-sample periods. Despite the sophistication of NNAR, this paper demonstrates ARIMA enduring power of volatile Bitcoin price prediction.

Public Awareness of a Plant-Based Diet Following the Release of “Game Changers” and “What The Health” Documentaries

2021 ◽  
pp. 155982762110441
Author(s):  
Micah Hartwell ◽  
Trevor Torgerson ◽  
Ryan Essex ◽  
Ben Campbell ◽  
Danielle Belardo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Awareness ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Vegan Diet ◽  
Search Terms ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Google Search ◽  
Diet And Lifestyle

Background: Poor diet is a leading cause of premature death and thus diet and lifestyle changes are needed; yet, no consensus exists regarding diets that provide the greatest benefit. One of these diets gaining popularity around the world is a plant-based, vegan diet. Recently, Netflix documentaries What the Health (2017) and The Game Changers (2019) have attempted to improve public awareness of veganism and plant-based diets. Methods: We used Google Trends to obtain data for keywords specific to plant-based diets, veganism, and documentary-specific terms over a time period before and after the release of the Netflix documentaries. We then created a forecasted model for trended search terms using autoregressive integrated moving algorithms and compared the actual trends to the forecast model to determine the effect of the documentaries on each selected term. Results: Search interest for the term “plant-based diet” increased significantly—2.8 times the mean forecasted value for What the Health ( t = 12.892, df = 30.012, P < .001) and 2 times the forecasted mean for The Game Changers ( t = 19.826, df = 30.118, P < .001). Additionally, following the release of The Game Changers, mean search interest for “plant-based athlete” was 2.8 times higher than the forecasted values. Conclusion: The documentaries What the Health (2017) and The Game Changers (2019) are associated with an increased interest in plant-based diets based on Google search trends, highlighting the need for continued research regarding plant-based diets and their health benefits related to chronic disease.

scholarly journals Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: The Case of Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol III (III) ◽  
pp. 488-503
Author(s):  
Ilyas Ahmad ◽  
Zahid Ali ◽  
Muhammad Usman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Corporate Sector ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Corrective Measures ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Nonfinancial Firms

In view of corporate lifecycle theory, financial distress is one of the fundamental phase in the life of a firm. Despite being unaffected by Global Financial Crises 2008, that time period proved critical for the corporate sector of Pakistan. This study aims to measures the firm-level financial distress in Pakistan by employing the bankruptcy models of Altman-(1968), Ohlson-(1980), Zmijewski-(1984) and JZ-(2016) for all nonfinancial firms for the years, 2002-2014. The major findings show that Z-score is the best bankruptcy forecast model, followed by Zmijewski model. This study has significance and policy implications as it will help to choose best bankruptcy studies for timely prediction of financial distress leading towards bankruptcy and helps firms to trigger corrective measures thus helping firms from entering into failure.

The Tempo and mode(S) of Prebiotic Evolution

1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 419-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Lazcano
Keyword(s):  
Origin Of Life ◽  
Organic Compounds ◽  
Biological Evolution ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Early Diversification ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Galaxy ◽  
History Of ◽  
Widespread Phenomenon ◽  
The Origin Of Life

AbstractDifferent current ideas on the origin of life are critically examined. Comparison of the now fashionable FeS/H2S pyrite-based autotrophic theory of the origin of life with the heterotrophic viewpoint suggest that the later is still the most fertile explanation for the emergence of life. However, the theory of chemical evolution and heterotrophic origins of life requires major updating, which should include the abandonment of the idea that the appearance of life was a slow process involving billions of years. Stability of organic compounds and the genetics of bacteria suggest that the origin and early diversification of life took place in a time period of the order of 10 million years. Current evidence suggest that the abiotic synthesis of organic compounds may be a widespread phenomenon in the Galaxy and may have a deterministic nature. However, the history of the biosphere does not exhibits any obvious trend towards greater complexity or «higher» forms of life. Therefore, the role of contingency in biological evolution should not be understimated in the discussions of the possibilities of life in the Universe.

Alteration of Mitochondria in Oxythiamine-Induced, Acute Thiamine Deficiency in the Mouse

1976 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 284-285
Author(s):  
Itaru Watanabe ◽  
Dante G. Scarpelli
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Adult Male ◽  
Thiamine Deficiency ◽  
Light And Electron Microscopy ◽  
Fatty Change ◽  
Deficient Diet ◽  
Subcutaneous Injections ◽  
Swiss Mice ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Ad Libitum

Acute thiamine deficiency was produced in mice by the administration of oxythiamine, a thiamine analogue, superimposed upon a thiamine deficient diet. Adult male Swiss mice (30 gm. B.W.) were fed with a thiamine deficient diet ad libitumand were injected with oxythiamine (170 mg/Kg B.W.) subcutaneously on days 4 and 10. On day 11, severe lassitude and anorexia developed, followed by death within 48 hours. The animals treated daily with subcutaneous injections of thiamine (300 μg/Kg B.W.) from day 11 through 15 were kept alive. Similarly, feeding with a diet containing thiamine (600 μg/Kg B.W./day) from day 9 through 17 reversed the condition. During this time period, no fatal illness occurred in the controls which were pair-fed with a thiamine deficient diet.The oxythiamine-treated mice showed a significant enlargement of the liver, which weighed approximately 1.5 times as much as that of the pair-fed controls. By light and electron microscopy, the hepatocytes were markedly swollen due to severe fatty change and swelling of the mitochondria.

Is there a “universal” MAC equation?

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 228-229
Author(s):  
Robert E. Ogilvie
Keyword(s):  
Absorption Coefficient ◽  
Atomic Absorption ◽  
Atomic Number ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Image Position

The search for an empirical absorption equation begins with the work of Siegbahn (1) in 1914. At that time Siegbahn showed that the value of (μ/ρ) for a given element could be expressed as a function of the wavelength (λ) of the x-ray photon by the following equationwhere C is a constant for a given material, which will have sudden jumps in value at critial absorption limits. Siegbahn found that n varied from 2.66 to 2.71 for various solids, and from 2.66 to 2.94 for various gases.Bragg and Pierce (2) , at this same time period, showed that their results on materials ranging from Al(13) to Au(79) could be represented by the followingwhere μa is the atomic absorption coefficient, Z the atomic number. Today equation (2) is known as the “Bragg-Pierce” Law. The exponent of 5/2(n) was questioned by many investigators, and that n should be closer to 3. The work of Wingardh (3) showed that the exponent of Z should be much lower, p = 2.95, however, this is much lower than that found by most investigators.

Clinical Update: Functional Capacity Evaluations—An Update

1999 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Welch
Keyword(s):  
Job Performance ◽  
Functional Capacity ◽  
Injury Risk ◽  
Disability Evaluation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Submaximal Effort ◽  
Lack Of Sleep ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Specific Limitation

Abstract Functional capacity evaluations (FCEs) have become an important component of disability evaluation during the past 10 years to assess an individual's ability to perform the essential or specific functions of a job, both preplacement and during rehabilitation. Evaluating both job performance and physical ability is a complex assessment, and some practitioners are not yet certain that an FCE can achieve these goals. An FCE is useful only if it predicts job performance, and factors that should be assessed include overall performance; consistency of performance across similar areas of the FCE; consistency between observed behaviors during the FCE and limitations or abilities reported by the worker; objective changes (eg, blood pressure and pulse) that are appropriate relative to performance; external factors (illness, lack of sleep, or medication); and a coefficient of variation that can be measured and assessed. FCEs can identify specific movement patterns or weaknesses; measure improvement during rehabilitation; identify a specific limitation that is amenable to accommodation; and identify a worker who appears to be providing a submaximal effort. FCEs are less reliable at predicting injury risk; they cannot tell us much about endurance over a time period longer than the time required for the FCE; and the FCE may measure simple muscular functions when the job requires more complex ones.

Vitamin D Deficiency/Insufficiency and Challenges in Developing Global Vitamin D Fortification and Supplementation Policy in Adults

2012 ◽  
Vol 82 (4) ◽  
pp. 237-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Ben-Shoshan
Keyword(s):  
Vitamin D ◽  
Vitamin D Deficiency ◽  
Search Strategy ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
Vitamin D Supplementation ◽  
Vitamin D Status ◽  
Societal Burden ◽  
Time Period ◽  
New Guidelines ◽  
In Cis

This review summarizes studies discussing vitamin D status in adults and reveals that vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency is highly prevalent in adults and that current fortification and supplementation policies are inadequate. Background and aims: Studies suggest a crucial role for adequate vitamin D status in various health conditions including bone metabolism, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and allergies. However, relatively little is known about poor vitamin D status and unmet needs in adults. This report aims to highlight the contribution of epidemiologic studies (through the identification of health effects and societal burden) to the development of vitamin D fortification and supplementation policies and reveal unmet global challenges in adults. Methods: In order to assess worldwide vitamin D status in adults, the search strategy combined the medical literature database MEDLINE (using PubMed) for the time period between January 1, 1980 and February 28, 2011, using the key words “vitamin D” “deficiency” and “insufficiency”, and included articles in which access to full text was possible and in which healthy adults were assessed according to one of four commonly used vitamin D threshold classifications. Results: This report reveals that vitamin D deficiency occurs in 4.10 % [95 % CI (confidence interval), 3.93 %, 4.27 %] to 55.05 % (54.07 %, 56.03 %) of adults, while insufficiency occurs in 26.07 % (24.82 %, 27.33 %) to 78.50 % (77.85 %, 79.16 %), depending on the classification used. However, lack of overlap in CIs and high value of I2 statistics indicate considerable heterogeneity between studies. Further, certain populations (i. e. dark-skinned individuals, immigrants, and pregnant women) may be at higher risk for poor vitamin D status. Conclusion: Current policies for vitamin D supplementation and fortification are inadequate and new guidelines are required to improve vitamin D status in adults.

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