scholarly journals An Assessment of the Philippine Hospital Resources as Predictors of the Case Fatality Rate of COVID – 19

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-130
Author(s):  
Paul Benjamin Barrion ◽  
Ray Patrick Basco ◽  
Kevin jamir Pigao
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Resources ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Hospital Resources

In the heightened effects of the pandemic, health resources have been in constant limbo as supplies and availability of hospital resources take a toll as COVID-19 cases surge, resulting in shortages. Thus, health systems are overwhelmed, resulting in a higher fatality rate since the capacity to provide medical attention is diminished. In this paper, hospital resources refer to mechanical ventilators, ICU, isolation, and ward beds which are the critical factors of the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in the Philippines. Data were retrieved from the Department of Health (DOH) Case Bulletins from October 26, 2020, to June 30, 2021, with 248 total observations. This research used the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Multiple Regression to determine if hospital resources are the predictors of the case fatality rate of COVID-19. Furthermore, the results show a significant relationship between the hospital resources and the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in the Philippines. This study can become a framework for further research concerned about hospital resources as the predictors of case fatality rates of different diseases in a pandemic.  

scholarly journals Early determination of case fatality rate of COVID-19 pandemic during the ongoing Yemeni armed conflict

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Abdulla Salem Bin Ghouth ◽  
Ali Ahmed Al-Waleedi ◽  
Marhami Fahriani ◽  
Firzan Nainu ◽  
Harapan Harapan
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Poor Outcomes

Abstract Objectives: To determine the case-fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its associated determinants in order to understand the true magnitude of the problem during ongoing conflict in Yemen. Methods: The CFR among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Yemen was calculated. The data was retrieved from national COVID-19 surveillance between April 10, when the first COVID-19 case reported, and May 31, 2020. Results: A total of 419 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported. There were 14.1% and 5.7% of cases who required intensive care and mechanical ventilators, respectively. Out of total cases, 95 deaths were reported, giving CFR of 22.6% which is much higher compared to other countries. CFR was significantly higher among elderly compared to young adults and varied between governorates. Mortality was associated with preexisting hypertension (OR: 2.30; 95%CI: 1.58, 3.54) and diabetes (OR: 1.68; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.61). Conclusions: Elderly and those with comorbidities, in particular hypertension and diabetes, have higher risk for poor outcomes and therefore should receive more attention in the clinical setting. Preventive measures should also be prioritized to protect those groups in order to reduce the severe cases and deaths-associated COVID-19 in armed-conflict.

scholarly journals The Amplifying Effect of Conflicts on Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19: Evidence From 120 Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yonghui Zhai ◽  
Dayang Jiang ◽  
Giray Gozgor ◽  
Eunho Cho
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Regularized Least Squares ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Amplifying Effect

Using the COVID-19 database of Johns Hopkins University, this study examines the determinants of the case fatality rate of COVID-19. We consider various potential determinants of the mortality risk of COVID-19 in 120 countries. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) estimations show that internal and external conflicts are positively related to the case fatality rates. This evidence is robust to the exclusion of countries across different regions. Thus, the evidence indicates that conflict may explain significant differences in the case fatality rate of COVID-19 across countries.

scholarly journals Epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Philippines

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark M. Alipio ◽  
Joseph Dave M. Pregoner
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Metro Manila ◽  
Infectivity Rate ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Infection Control Guidelines ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

AbstractThe outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-2019) is a source of great concern in the Philippines. In this paper, we described the epidemiological characteristics of the laboratory-confirmed patients with Covid-2019 in the Philippines as of April 3, 2020 and provided recommendations on how to limit the spread of the disease. Data from the DOH NCOV tracker and University of the Philippines’ Covid-2019 tracker were extracted, from its initiation (January 30, 2020) until the most recent situation report (April 3, 2020). The total number of cases and deaths were stratified by sex, age, and region of the Philippines. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the demographic profile of the confirmed cases. Case fatality rate, in percent, was calculated by dividing the total number of deaths to the total number of confirmed cases. Results revealed that a total of 3,018 cases of Covid-2019 spread were confirmed across 17 regions in the Philippines. These cases occurred over the course of 73 days through person-to-person transmission, highlighting an extremely high infectivity rate. The 144 deaths accounted for, equate to 4.51 case fatality rate, seemingly lower compared to its predecessors, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), but higher compared to that of United States of America, Germany, mainland China, and neighboring Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Thailand. Of the 3,018 confirmed cases, majority were male, elderly, and diagnosed in Metro Manila region. Case fatality rates were higher in male and highest among elderly and Filipinos in the Ilocos region. With the surge on the number of cases, precautionary measures should remain a responsibility, and protocols for prevention need to be set. Adherence to infection control guidelines such as but not limited to frequently handwashing for at least 20 seconds, observing coughing etiquette, wearing of masks, and social distancing should be maintained in order to contain the disease.

scholarly journals An Epidemiological Analysis of COVID-19 cases from Jan to July 2020 in Kelantan, Malaysia

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-165
Author(s):  
Hazlienor Mohd Hatta ◽  
Nik Mohd Hafiz Mohd Fuzi ◽  
Nur Dalilah Mohd Zin ◽  
Afiq Izzudin A Rahim ◽  
Najihah Mahfuzah Zakria ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Local Setting ◽  
Adjusted Incidence Rate ◽  
Choropleth Map

As the global battle against COVID-19 rages on, Malaysia’s concerted effort in stemming the spread is commendable. This study characterized the epidemiology of COVID-19 aiming towards understanding the disease in a local setting for better preparation and management. A nation-based e-COVID reporting system was used to collect data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Kelantan from January to July 2020. Information from investigation reports was also reviewed. Analyses comprised of the estimation of incidence and case-fatality rate, summary of demographic and clinical characteristics including the age and sex distributions, construction of the epidemiological curve and choropleth map, and appraisal of healthcare usage. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. A total of 166 cases reported in Kelantan until July 2020. Cases peaked during March before steadily declining and were concentrated in the capital. The age-adjusted incidence rate was 9.4/100,000 populations with a case-fatality rate of 2.4%. The median age was 37 years and 78% were male. The predominant symptoms were fever and cough while 25% of cases were asymptomatic. About 57% of cases were identified by active case detection and 97% had exposure risk. Potentially infected cases were isolated within a median of 7 days after exposure, even before the diagnosis. All cases were hospitalized with a median of 14 bed days, while 12% admitted to ICU, and 3% required mechanical ventilators. Significant factors for ICU admission were older age (AOR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.09, P = 0.001) and diabetes mellitus (AOR 4.55, 95% CI: 1.36, 15.25, P = 0.014). Although all ages appeared susceptible to COVID-19, older age and diabetic patients were more vulnerable. Kelantan’s targeted approaches of prompt identification and isolation of potentially infected individuals have been effective in limiting the transmission, allowing sufficient healthcare capacity in managing the pandemic.

scholarly journals Pemodelan Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Estimator Spline Truncated vs Deret Fourier

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
Andrea Tri Rian Dani ◽  
Narita Yuri Adrianingsih
Keyword(s):  
Fourier Series ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Nonparametric Regression ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Predictor Variable ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Regression Modeling ◽  
Fatality Rate

ABSTRAKPendekatan regresi nonparametrik digunakan apabila hubungan antara variabel prediktor dan variabel respon tidak diketahui polanya. Spline truncated dan deret Fourier merupakan estimator dalam pendekatan nonparametrik yang terkenal, karena memiliki fleksibilitas yang tinggi dan mampu menyesuaikan terhadap sifat lokal data secara efektif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan estimator model regresi nonparametrik terbaik menggunakan spline truncated dan deret Fourier. Metode estimasi kurva regresi nonparametrik dilakukan dengan menyelesaikan optimasi Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Kriteria kebaikan model menggunakan GCV, R2 dan MSE. Pemodelan regresi nonparametrik diterapkan pada data Case Fatality Rate (CFR) akibat Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Indonesia.  Berdasarkan hasil analisis, hasil estimasi dari pemodelan regresi nonparametrik menunjukkan bahwa estimator spline truncated memberikan performa yang lebih baik dibandingkan estimator deret Fourier. Hal ini ditunjukkan dengan nilai R2 dari estimator spline truncated yaitu sebesar 91,80% dan MSE sebesar 0,04, sedangkan dengan estimator deret Fourier diperoleh nilai R2 sebesar 65,44% dan MSE sebesar 0,19.ABSTRACTThe nonparametric regression approach is used when the relationship between the predictor variable and the response variable is unknown. Spline truncated and Fourier series are well-known estimators in the nonparametric approach because they have high flexibility and are able to adjust to the local properties of the data effectively. This study aims to obtain the best nonparametric regression model estimator using the truncated spline and the Fourier series. The nonparametric regression curve estimation method is done by completing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) optimization. The criteria for the goodness of the model use GCV, R2, and MSE. Nonparametric regression modeling is applied to Case Fatality Rate (CFR) modeling due to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DBD) in Indonesia. Based on the analysis, the estimation results from the nonparametric regression modeling show that the truncated spline estimator provides better performance than the Fourier series estimator. This is shown by the R2 value of the truncated spline estimator which is 91.80% and the MSE is 0.04, while the Fourier series estimator obtained an R2 value of 65.44% and MSE of 0.19.

scholarly journals Policy disparities in fighting COVID-19 among Japan, Italy, Singapore and China

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohan Wang ◽  
Leiyu Shi ◽  
Yuyao Zhang ◽  
Haiqian Chen ◽  
Gang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Resources ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Epidemic Control ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective In order to provide experiences for international epidemic control, this study systematically summarized the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control policies in Japan, Italy, China and Singapore, and also analyzed the possible inequalities that exist in these response approaches to improve global infectious disease control. Methods We summarized the epidemic prevention and control policies in Japan, Italy, China, and Singapore, and analyzed the policy effects of these four countries by using the data published by Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Results As of May 27, 2020, the growing trend of new cases in Japan, Italy, China and Singapore has stabilized. However, the cumulative number of confirmed cases (231139) and case-fatality rate (14.3%) in Italy far exceeded those in the other three countries, and the effect of epidemic control was inferior. Singapore began to experience a domestic resurgence after April 5, with a cumulative number of confirmed cases reaching 32,876, but the case-fatality rate remained extremely low (0.1%). The growth of cumulative confirmed cases in China (84547) was almost stagnant, and the case-fatality rate was low (5.5%). The growth of cumulative confirmed cases in Japan (16661) increased slowly, and the case-fatality rate (4.8%) was slightly lower than that in China. Conclusion This study divided the epidemic prevention and control policies of the four countries into two categories: the blocking measures adopted by China and Singapore, and the mitigation measures adopted by Japan and Italy. According to the Epidemic control results of these four countries, we can conclude that the blocking measures were generally effective. As the core strategy of blocking measures, admitting mild patients into hospital and cases tracing helped curb the spread of the outbreak in Singapore and China. Countries should choose appropriate response strategies on the premise of considering their own situation, increase investment in health resources to ensure global health equity, and eventually control the spread of infectious diseases in the world effectively.

scholarly journals Pemodelan Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Estimator Spline Truncated vs Deret Fourier

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
Andrea Tri Rian Dani ◽  
Narita Yuri Adrianingsih
Keyword(s):  
Fourier Series ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Nonparametric Regression ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Predictor Variable ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Regression Modeling ◽  
Fatality Rate

ABSTRAKPendekatan regresi nonparametrik digunakan apabila hubungan antara variabel prediktor dan variabel respon tidak diketahui polanya. Spline truncated dan deret Fourier merupakan estimator dalam pendekatan nonparametrik yang terkenal, karena memiliki fleksibilitas yang tinggi dan mampu menyesuaikan terhadap sifat lokal data secara efektif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan estimator model regresi nonparametrik terbaik menggunakan spline truncated dan deret Fourier. Metode estimasi kurva regresi nonparametrik dilakukan dengan menyelesaikan optimasi Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Kriteria kebaikan model menggunakan GCV, R2 dan MSE. Pemodelan regresi nonparametrik diterapkan pada data Case Fatality Rate (CFR) akibat Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Indonesia.  Berdasarkan hasil analisis, hasil estimasi dari pemodelan regresi nonparametrik menunjukkan bahwa estimator spline truncated memberikan performa yang lebih baik dibandingkan estimator deret Fourier. Hal ini ditunjukkan dengan nilai R2 dari estimator spline truncated yaitu sebesar 91,80% dan MSE sebesar 0,04, sedangkan dengan estimator deret Fourier diperoleh nilai R2 sebesar 65,44% dan MSE sebesar 0,19.ABSTRACTThe nonparametric regression approach is used when the relationship between the predictor variable and the response variable is unknown. Spline truncated and Fourier series are well-known estimators in the nonparametric approach because they have high flexibility and are able to adjust to the local properties of the data effectively. This study aims to obtain the best nonparametric regression model estimator using the truncated spline and the Fourier series. The nonparametric regression curve estimation method is done by completing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) optimization. The criteria for the goodness of the model use GCV, R2, and MSE. Nonparametric regression modeling is applied to Case Fatality Rate (CFR) modeling due to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DBD) in Indonesia. Based on the analysis, the estimation results from the nonparametric regression modeling show that the truncated spline estimator provides better performance than the Fourier series estimator. This is shown by the R2 value of the truncated spline estimator which is 91.80% and the MSE is 0.04, while the Fourier series estimator obtained an R2 value of 65.44% and MSE of 0.19.

scholarly journals Aetiology and risks factors associated with the fatal outcomes of childhood pneumonia among hospitalised children in the Philippines from 2008 to 2016: a case series study

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. e026895 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bindongo Price Polycarpe Dembele ◽  
Taro Kamigaki ◽  
Clyde Dapat ◽  
Raita Tamaki ◽  
Mariko Saito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Case Series Study ◽  
Series Study

ObjectivePneumonia remains the leading cause of hospitalisations and deaths among children aged <5 years. Diverse respiratory pathogens cause acute respiratory infections, including pneumonia. Here, we analysed viral and bacterial pathogens and risk factors associated with death of hospitalised children.DesignA 9-year case series study.SettingTwo secondary-care hospitals, one tertiary-care hospital and one research centre in the Philippines.Participants5054 children aged <5 years hospitalised with severe pneumonia.MethodsNasopharyngeal swabs for virus identification, and venous blood samples for bacterial culture were collected. Demographic, clinical data and laboratory findings were collected at admission time. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with death.ResultsOf the enrolled patients, 57% (2876/5054) were males. The case fatality rate was 4.7% (238/5054), showing a decreasing trend during the study period (p<0.001). 55.0% of the patients who died were either moderately or severely underweight. Viruses were detected in 61.0% of the patients, with respiratory syncytial virus (27.0%) and rhinovirus (23.0%) being the most commonly detected viruses. In children aged 2–59 months, the risk factors significantly associated with death included age of 2–5 months, sensorial changes, severe malnutrition, grunting, central cyanosis, decreased breath sounds, tachypnoea, fever (≥38.5°C), saturation of peripheral oxygen <90%, infiltration, consolidation and pleural effusion on chest radiograph.Among the pathogens, adenovirus type 7, seasonal influenza A (H1N1) and positive blood culture for bacteria were significantly associated with death. Similar patterns were observed between the death cases and the aforementioned factors in children aged <2 months.ConclusionMalnutrition was the most common factor associated with death and addressing this issue may decrease the case fatality rate. In addition, chest radiographic examination and oxygen saturation measurement should be promoted in all hospitalised patients with pneumonia as well as bacteria detection to identify patients who are at risk of death.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Conflict Border Regions: A Case of South Kordofan, Sudan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quraish Sserwanja ◽  
Mohammed Bashir Adam ◽  
Joseph Kawuki ◽  
Emmanuel Olal
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
Non Governmental Organizations ◽  
Displaced People ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
South Kordofan

Abstract The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Sudan on 13 March 2020. Since then, Sudan has experienced one of the highest COVID-19 spread and fatalities in Africa. As per 12 December 2020, Sudan had a total of 21,591 cases, 1,355 cumulative deaths at a case fatality rate (CFR) of 6.28%. South Kordofan State has 17.4% COVID-19 case fatality rate, the fifth highest rate among the 18 States. The State is home to over 200,000 poor and displaced people from years of destructive civil unrests. To date, several localities such as the Nubba mountains region remain under rebel control and are not accessible. South Kordofan State Ministry of Health in collaboration with the federal government and non-governmental organizations set up four isolation centres with 40 total bed capacity, but with only two mechanical ventilators and no testing centre. There is still need for further multi-sectoral coalition and equitable allocation of resources to strengthen the health systems of rural and conflict affected regions. This article aims at providing insight into the current State of COVID-19 in South Kordofan amidst the second wave to address the dearth of COVID-19 information in rural and conflict affected regions.

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