The Impact of Convective Momentum Transport on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Using the Emanuel Cumulus Parameterization

Abstract The influence of convective momentum transport (CMT) on tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts is examined in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) with the Emanuel cumulus parameterization. Data assimilation and medium-range forecast experiments show that for 35 tropical cyclones during August and September 2004 the inclusion of CMT in the cumulus parameterization significantly improves the TC track forecasts. The tests show that the track forecasts are very sensitive to the magnitude of the Emanuel parameterization’s convective momentum transport parameter, which controls the CMT tendency returned by the parameterization. While the overall effect of this formulation of CMT in NOGAPS data assimilation/medium-range forecasts results in the surface pressure of tropical cyclones being less intense (and more consistent with the analysis), the parameterization is not equivalent to a simple diffusion of winds in the presence of convection. This is demonstrated by two data assimilation/medium-range forecast tests in which a vertical diffusion algorithm replaces the CMT. Two additional data assimilation/medium-range forecast experiments were conducted to test whether the skill increase primarily comes from the CMT in the immediate vicinity of the tropical cyclones. The results show that the inclusion of the CMT calculation in the vicinity of the TC makes the largest contribution to the increase in forecast skill, but the general contribution of CMT away from the TC also plays an important role.

Download Full-text

ECMWF Activities for Improved Hurricane Forecasts

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-18-0044.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 100 (3) ◽

pp. 445-458 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

L. Magnusson ◽

J.-R. Bidlot ◽

M. Bonavita ◽

A. R. Brown ◽

P. A. Browne ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Research Activities ◽

Ocean Coupling ◽

Hurricane Season ◽

Medium Range ◽

Future Challenges ◽

Forecasting System ◽

The Impact

AbstractTropical cyclones are some of the most devastating natural hazards and the “three beasts”—Harvey, Irma, and Maria—during the Atlantic hurricane season 2017 are recent examples. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is working on fulfilling its 2016–25 strategy in which early warnings for extreme events will be made possible by a high-resolution Earth system ensemble forecasting system. Several verification reports acknowledge deterministic and probabilistic tropical cyclone tracks from ECMWF as world leading. However, producing reliable intensity forecasts is still a difficult task for the ECMWF global forecasting model, especially regarding maximum wind speed. This article will put the ECMWF strategy into a tropical cyclone perspective and highlight some key research activities, using Harvey, Irma, and Maria as examples. We describe the observation usage around tropical cyclones in data assimilation and give examples of their impact. From a model perspective, we show the impact of running at 5-km resolution and also the impact of applying ocean coupling. Finally, we discuss the future challenges to tackle the errors in intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones.

Download Full-text

Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

Scientific Data ◽

10.1038/s41597-021-00847-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hamish Steptoe ◽

Nicholas Henry Savage ◽

Saeed Sadri ◽

Kate Salmon ◽

Zubair Maalick ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Sea Level Pressure ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Level Pressure ◽

Medium Range ◽

Gust Speed

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.

Download Full-text

Interpretation of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/2007mwr2027.1 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 135 (12) ◽

pp. 4006-4029 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

C. A. Reynolds ◽

M. S. Peng ◽

S. J. Majumdar ◽

S. D. Aberson ◽

C. H. Bishop ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Data Assimilation ◽

Total Energy ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Error Variance ◽

Naval Research ◽

Error Statistics ◽

Background Error ◽

Analysis Error ◽

The Impact ◽

Perturbation Growth

Abstract Adaptive observing guidance products for Atlantic tropical cyclones are compared using composite techniques that allow one to quantitatively examine differences in the spatial structures of the guidance maps and relate these differences to the constraints and approximations of the respective techniques. The guidance maps are produced using the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) based on ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and total-energy singular vectors (TESVs) produced by ECMWF and the Naval Research Laboratory. Systematic structural differences in the guidance products are linked to the fact that TESVs consider the dynamics of perturbation growth only, while the ETKF combines information on perturbation evolution with error statistics from an ensemble-based data assimilation scheme. The impact of constraining the SVs using different estimates of analysis error variance instead of a total-energy norm, in effect bringing the two methods closer together, is also assessed. When the targets are close to the storm, the TESV products are a maximum in an annulus around the storm, whereas the ETKF products are a maximum at the storm location itself. When the targets are remote from the storm, the TESVs almost always indicate targets northwest of the storm, whereas the ETKF targets are more scattered relative to the storm location and often occur over the northern North Atlantic. The ETKF guidance often coincides with locations in which the ensemble-based analysis error variance is large. As the TESV method is not designed to consider spatial differences in the likely analysis errors, it will produce targets over well-observed regions, such as the continental United States. Constraining the SV calculation using analysis error variance values from an operational 3D variational data assimilation system (with stationary, quasi-isotropic background error statistics) results in a modest modulation of the target areas away from the well-observed regions, and a modest reduction of perturbation growth. Constraining the SVs using the ETKF estimate of analysis error variance produces SV targets similar to ETKF targets and results in a significant reduction in perturbation growth, due to the highly localized nature of the analysis error variance estimates. These results illustrate the strong sensitivity of SVs to the norm (and to the analysis error variance estimate used to define it) and confirm that discrepancies between target areas computed using different methods reflect the mathematical and physical differences between the methods themselves.

Download Full-text

Impact of Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation of Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf940.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 21 (4) ◽

pp. 663-669 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Dongliang Wang ◽

Xudong Liang ◽

Yihong Duan ◽

Johnny C. L. Chan

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Data Assimilation ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

State University ◽

Motion Vectors ◽

Geostationary Meteorological Satellite ◽

Atmospheric Motion ◽

Atmospheric Motion Vectors ◽

Data Assimilation Technique ◽

The Impact

Abstract The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model is employed to evaluate the impact of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 water vapor and infrared atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), incorporated with the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation technique, on tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions. Twenty-two cases from eight different TCs over the western North Pacific in 2002 have been examined. The 4DVAR assimilation of these satellite-derived wind observations leads to appreciable improvements in the track forecasts, with average reductions in track error of ∼5% at 12 h, 12% at 24 h, 10% at 36 h, and 7% at 48 h. Preliminary results suggest that the improvement depends on the quantity of the AMV data available for assimilation.

Download Full-text

The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data from the THORPEX Pacific Area Regional Campaign and the NOAA Hurricane Field Program on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Global Forecast System

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/2011mwr3634.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 139 (9) ◽

pp. 2689-2703 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Sim D. Aberson

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Unexpected Result ◽

Cyclone Track ◽

East Pacific ◽

Global Impacts ◽

The Impact ◽

Pacific Area ◽

Taiwan Region

Four aircraft released dropwindsondes in and around tropical cyclones in the west Pacific during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Area Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in 2008 and the Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR); multiple aircraft concurrently participated in similar missions in the Atlantic. Previous studies have treated each region separately and have focused on the tropical cyclones whose environments were sampled. The large number of missions and tropical cyclones in both regions, and additional tropical cyclones in the east Pacific and Indian Oceans, allows for the global impact of these observations on tropical cyclone track forecasts to be studied. The study shows that there are unintended global consequences to local changes in initial conditions, in this case due to the assimilation of dropwindsonde data in tropical cyclone environments. These global impacts are mainly due to the spectral nature of the model system. These differences should be small and slightly positive, since improved local initial conditions should lead to small global forecast improvements. However, the impacts on tropical cyclones far removed from the data are shown to be as large and positive as those on the tropical cyclones specifically targeted for improved track forecasts. Causes of this unexpected result are hypothesized, potentially providing operational forecasters tools to identify when large remote impacts from surveillance missions might occur.

Download Full-text

Joint Impact of Forecast Tendency and State Error Biases in Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation of Inner-Core Tropical Cyclone Observations

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-12-00211.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 141 (9) ◽

pp. 2992-3006 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Tomislava Vukicevic ◽

Altuğ Aksoy ◽

Paul Reasor ◽

Sim D. Aberson ◽

Kathryn J. Sellwood ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Data Assimilation ◽

Inner Core ◽

Systematic Errors ◽

Secondary Circulation ◽

Short Term ◽

Background Error ◽

High Resolution Data ◽

Boundary Layer Dynamics ◽

The Impact

Abstract In this study the properties and causes of systematic errors in high-resolution data assimilation of inner-core tropical cyclone (TC) observations were investigated using the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS). Although a recent study by Aksoy et al. demonstrated overall good performance of HEDAS for 83 cases from 2008 to 2011 using airborne observations from research and operational aircraft, some systematic errors were identified in the analyses with respect to independent observation-based estimates. The axisymmetric primary circulation intensity was underestimated for hurricane cases and the secondary circulation was systematically weaker for all cases. The diagnostic analysis in this study shows that the underestimate of primary circulation was caused by the systematic spindown of the vortex core in the short-term forecasts during the cycling with observations. This tendency bias was associated with the systematic errors in the secondary circulation, temperature, and humidity. The biases were reoccurring in each cycle during the assimilation because of the inconsistency between the strength of primary and secondary circulation during the short-term forecasts, the impact of model error in planetary boundary layer dynamics, and the effect of forecast tendency bias on the background error correlations. Although limited to the current analysis the findings in this study point to a generic problem of mutual dependence of short-term forecast tendency and state estimate errors in the data assimilation of TC core observations. The results indicate that such coupling of errors in the assimilation would also lead to short-term intensity forecast bias after the assimilation for the same reasons.

Download Full-text

Satellite-based monitoring and prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and movement

MAUSAM ◽

10.54302/mausam.v48i2.3965 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 48 (2) ◽

pp. 157-168

Author(s):

R. R. KELKAR

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽

Intensity Estimation ◽

Cyclone Intensity ◽

Estimation Scheme ◽

Water Vapour Absorption ◽

Upper Level ◽

Absorption Channel ◽

The Impact

ABSTRACT. Capabilities of meteorological satellites have gone a long way in meeting requirements of synoptic analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones. This paper shows the impact made by the satellite data in the intensity estimation and track prediction of tropical cyclones in the Indian Seas and also reviews the universally applied Dvorak algorithm for performing tropical cyclone intensity analysis. Extensive use of Dvorak's intensity estimation scheme has revealed many of its limitations and elements of subjectivity in the analysis of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which, like cyclones in other ocean basins, also exhibit wide structural variability as seen in the satellite imagery. Satellite-based cyclone tracking techniques include: (i) use of satellite-derived mean wind flow, (ii) animation of sequence of satellite images and extrapolation of the apparent motion of the cloud system and (iii) monitoring changes in the upper level moisture patterns in the water vapour absorption channel imagery. Satellite-based techniques on tropical cyclone intensity estimation and track prediction have led to very significant improvement in disaster warning and consequent saving of life and property.

Download Full-text

Analisis Kondisi Atmosfer Terkait Siklon Tropis Pabuk Serta Pengaruhnya Terhadap Tinggi Gelombang di Perairan Kepulauan Riau

Tunas Geografi ◽

10.24114/tgeo.v8i2.17049 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 111

Author(s):

Diana Cahaya Siregar ◽

Vivi Putrima Ardah ◽

Arlin Martha Navitri

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Satellite Imagery ◽

Vertical Velocity ◽

Atmospheric Condition ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Distribution Data ◽

Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽

Wavewatch Iii ◽

Medium Range ◽

The Impact

Abstract Tropical cyclones is a synoptic scale low pressure system which can have an impact, both directly or indirectly to its traversed area. On January 1 to 6, 2019, Pabuk tropical cyclone was active on the South China Sea which its movement was to the west with its maximum wind speed was 64 knots. The aim of this study was to know the impact of Pabuk tropical cyclone to the atmospheric condition and sea wave on the Riau Islands region. This study used convective index analysis using IR1 channel of Himawari-8 satellite imagery and rainfall distribution data from rainfall observation by meteorological stations which are in the Riau Islands region. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data likes relative humidity, vertical velocity, and divergence was used to describe the atmospheric condition during the life time of Pabuk tropical cyclone. Wavewatch-III data was used to describe the condition of sea waves on the Riau Islands region. The results showed that Pabuk tropical cyclone had an impact on the growth of convective clouds which it caused the light to moderate rainfall quite evenly in the Riau Islands region. Besides, it was impact to the potential of high waves reached 4.5 meters on the northern of Anambas Sea and 7.0 meters on the north-eastern of Natuna Sea.Key words: Tropical cyclone, satellite imagery, wave height Abstrak Siklon tropis merupakan sistem tekanan rendah berskala sinoptik yang berdampak secara langsung maupun tidak langsung terhadap wilayah yang dilalui. Pada tanggal 1-6 Januari 2019, siklon tropis Pabuk muncul di wilayah Laut Cina Selatan dengan pergerakan ke arah barat dan kecepatan angin maksimumnya mencapai 64 knots. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengkaji dampak yang ditimbulkan oleh siklon tropis Pabuk terhadap kondisi atmosfer dan gelombang laut di wilayah Kepulauan Riau. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis indeks konvektif dari data citra satelit Himawari-8 kanal IR1 dan analisis sebaran hujan menggunakan data pengamatan curah hujan dari beberapa stasiun meteorologi yang ada di Kepulauan Riau. Data reanalisis European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) berupa kelembaban udara, vertical velocity, dan divergensi diolah untuk menggambarkan kondisi atmosfer pada masa hidup siklon tropis Pabuk. Data gelombang Wavewatch-III digunakan untuk menggambarkan kondisi gelombang laut di sekitar wilayah Kepulauan Riau. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa aktifnya siklon tropis Pabuk berdampak terhadap pertumbuhan awan konvektif yang menimbulkan hujan ringan hingga sedang yang cukup merata di wilayah Kepulauan Riau. Selain itu, berdampak juga pada potensi terjadinya gelombang tinggi mencapai 4,5 meter di sebelah utara Perairan Anambas dan 7,0 meter di sebelah timur laut Perairan Natuna.Kata Kunci: Siklon tropis, citra satelit, tinggi gelombang

Download Full-text

Sensitivity in the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007) to Near-Surface Soil Moisture Characteristics

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/2011mwr3593.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 139 (12) ◽

pp. 3848-3870 ◽

Cited By ~ 34

Author(s):

Clark Evans ◽

Russ S. Schumacher ◽

Thomas J. Galarneau

Keyword(s):

Boundary Layer ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Moisture Content ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Soil Moisture Content ◽

Soil Conditions ◽

Seasonal Signal ◽

Along Track ◽

The Impact

Abstract This study investigates the impact of abnormally moist soil conditions across the southern Great Plains upon the overland reintensification of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007). This is tested by analyzing the contributions of three soil moisture–related signals—a seasonal signal, an along-track rainfall signal, and an early postlandfall rainfall signal—to the intensity of the vortex. In so doing, a suite of nine convection-permitting numerical simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) is used. Of the signals tested, soil moisture contributions from the anomalously wet months preceding Erin are found to have the greatest positive impact upon the intensity of the vortex, though this impact is on the order of that from climatological soil moisture conditions. The greatest impact of the early rainfall signal contributions is found when it is added to the seasonal signal. Along-track rainfall during the simulation period has a minimal impact. Variations in soil moisture content result in impacts upon the boundary layer thermodynamic environment via boundary layer mixing. Greater soil moisture content results in weaker mixing, a shallower boundary layer, and greater moisture and instability. Differences in the intensity of convection that develops and its accompanying latent heat release aloft result in greater warm-core development and surface vortex intensification within the simulations featuring greater soil moisture content. Implications of these findings to the tropical cyclone development process are discussed. Given that the reintensification is shown to occur in, apart from land, an otherwise favorable environment for tropical cyclone development and results in a vortex with a structure similar to developing tropical cyclones, these findings provide new insight into the conditions under which tropical cyclones develop.

Download Full-text

Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Phasing between the Upper-Level Trough and Tropical Cyclones

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr3303.1 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 135 (3) ◽

pp. 862-876 ◽

Cited By ~ 71

Author(s):

Elizabeth A. Ritchie ◽

Russell L. Elsberry

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Critical Factor ◽

Complex Problem ◽

Initial Position ◽

Extratropical Cyclone ◽

Extratropical Transition ◽

Subtropical Anticyclone ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Abstract Whether the tropical cyclone remnants will become a significant extratropical cyclone during the reintensification stage of extratropical transition is a complex problem because of the uncertainty in the tropical cyclone, the midlatitude circulation, the subtropical anticyclone, and the nonlinear interactions among these systems. In a previous study, the authors simulated the impact of the strength of the midlatitude circulation trough without changing its phasing with the tropical cyclone. In this study, the impact of phasing is simulated by fixing the initial position and amplitude of the midlatitude trough and varying the initial position of the tropical cyclone. The peak intensity of the extratropical cyclone following the extratropical transition is strongly dependent on the phasing, which leads to different degrees of interaction with the midlatitude baroclinic zone. Many aspects of the simulated circulation, temperature, and precipitation fields appear quite realistic for the reintensifying and dissipating cases. Threshold values of various parameters in quadrants near and far from the tropical cyclone are extracted that discriminate well between reintensifiers and dissipators. The selection and distribution of threshold parameters are consistent with the Petterssen type-B conceptual model for extratropical cyclone development. Thus, these simulations suggest that phasing between the tropical cyclone and the midlatitude trough is a critical factor in predicting the reintensification stage of extratropical transition.

Download Full-text