scholarly journals Trend and Variability Analysis, and Forecasting of Maximum Temperature in Bangladesh

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-128
Author(s):  
JA Syeda
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Rabi Season ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature

An attempt is made to investigate the trend and variability for annual and seasonal (Three crop seasons) average maximum temperature (AMXT) for six divisional stations of Bangladesh: Dhaka, Rajshahi, Khulna, Barisal, Sylhet and Chittagong. The monthly AMXT (2009-2012) are forecasted applying univariate Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) modeling techniques. The growth rates of annual AMXT are found positive in all the stations except Rajshahi (negative) while the rates of their coefficient of variations (CVs) are negative in all the stations except Khulna (negative). The rates of AMXT are positive during Kharif season but negative in Prekharif and Rabi seasons for Rajshahi and Khulna, positive during Kharif and Rabi season but negative in Prekharif season for Dhaka and Barisal and positive in all the three seasons for Sylhet and Chittagong. The findings support that the climate of this country is channging in terms of maximum temperature and this may have adverse effects on its agriculture.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v5i2.14803 J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 5(2): 119-128 2012

scholarly journals Variability Analysis and Forecasting of Relative Humidity in Bangladesh

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
JA Syeda
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Rabi Season ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
Variability Pattern ◽  
Average Relative Humidity

An attempt was made to investigate the trend and variability pattern for decadal, annual and seasonal (three crop seasons) average relative humidity (ARH) of six divisional stations in Bangladesh: Dhaka, Rajshahi, Khulna, Barisal, Sylhet and Chittagong. The rates of linear trend (LT) for minimum, maximum and range humidity were examined too. The monthly ARH for 2009-2012 were forecasted using the univariate Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) modelling technique. The rates of LT for annual ARH were found negative for Dhaka and Chittagong but positive for others. The rates were found negative for all the coefficient of variations (CVs). The rate for annual minimum humidity was positive for Dhaka but negative for others. The rates for annual maximum and range humidity were negative for Dhaka and Chittagong but positive for others. The rates for seasonal ARH were negative for Dhaka while positive for Rajshahi and Barisal in all the three seasons. It was negative for Kharif season, whereas positive for Prekharif and Rabi seasons for Khulna and Sylhet. It was negative for Kharif and Prekharif seasons, as the same time as positive for Rabi season for Chittagong.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v5i2.14805 J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 5(2): 137-147 2012

scholarly journals Trend and Variability Analysis for Forecasting of Temperature in Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 243-252
Author(s):  
JA Syeda
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Modelling Technique ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
Kharif Season ◽  
Variability Pattern

An attempt was made to investigate the trend and variability pattern for decadal, annual and seasonal (three crop seasons) average dry bulb temperature (ADBT) for the six divisional stations of Bangladesh namely Dhaka, Khulna, Rajshahi, Barisal, Sylhet and Chittagong. The monthly ADBT for 2009-2012 is forecasted using the univariate Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) modelling technique. The rates of linear trend for annual average dry bulb temperature (ADBT) were found negative for Rajshahi and Barisal but positive for Dhaka, Khulna, Sylhet and Chittagong. The rates for Seasonal ADBT were positive for all the three seasons for Dhaka and Chittagong, but negative for all the three seasons for Barisal while positive for Kharif and Rabi seasons and negative for Prekharif seasons for Khulna and Sylhet. The rates were positive for Kharif season but negative for Prekharif and Rabi seasons for Rajshahi. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v5i1.11589 J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 5(1): 243-252, 2012

scholarly journals Exploring the Sensitivity of Subtropical Stand Aboveground Productivity to Local and Regional Climate Signals in South China

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Zhou ◽  
Yang Luo ◽  
Guang Zhou ◽  
Jian Yu ◽  
Sher Shah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mixed Forest ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Forest Types ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Aboveground Productivity ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature

Subtropical forest productivity is significantly affected by both natural disturbances (local and regional climate changes) and anthropogenic activities (harvesting and planting). Monthly measures of forest aboveground productivity from natural forests (primary and secondary forests) and plantations (mixed and single-species forests) were developed to explore the sensitivity of subtropical mountain productivity to the fluctuating characteristics of climate change in South China, spanning the 35-year period from 1981 to 2015. Statistical analysis showed that climate regulation differed across different forest types. The monthly average maximum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were positively correlated with primary and mixed-forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components: Wood productivity (WP) and canopy productivity (CP). However, the monthly average maximum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were negatively correlated with secondary and single-species forest ANPP and its components. The number of dry days and minimum temperature were positively associated with secondary and single-species forest productivity, but inversely associated with primary and mixed forest productivity. The multivariate ENSO (EI Niño-Southern Oscillation) index (MEI), computed based on sea level pressure, surface temperature, surface air temperature, and cloudiness over the tropical Pacific Ocean, was significantly correlated with local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), precipitation (PRE), streamflow (FLO), and the number of dry days (DD), as well as the monthly means of primary and mixed forest aboveground productivity. In particular, the mean maximum temperature increased by 2.5, 0.9, 6.5, and 0.9 °C, and the total forest aboveground productivity decreased by an average of 5.7%, 3.0%, 2.4%, and 7.8% in response to the increased extreme high temperatures and drought events during the 1986/1988, 1997/1998, 2006/2007, and 2009/2010 EI Niño periods, respectively. Subsequently, the total aboveground productivity values increased by an average of 1.1%, 3.0%, 0.3%, and 8.6% because of lagged effects after the wet La Niña periods. The main conclusions of this study demonstrated that the influence of local and regional climatic fluctuations on subtropical forest productivity significantly differed across different forests, and community position and plant diversity differences among different forest types may prevent the uniform response of subtropical mountain aboveground productivity to regional climate anomalies. Therefore, these findings may be useful for forecasting climate-induced variation in forest aboveground productivity as well as for selecting tree species for planting in reforestation practices.

The safety of dental extractions in patients with hematologic malignancies.

1989 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 798-802 ◽  
Author(s):  
S K Williford ◽  
P L Salisbury ◽  
J E Peacock ◽  
J M Cruz ◽  
B L Powell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wound Healing ◽  
Myeloproliferative Disorders ◽  
Hematologic Malignancies ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Sources Of Infection ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Risk For Bleeding ◽  
Dental Infections

Dental disorders have been recognized as major sources of infection in patients with hematologic malignancies (HM). Management of severe dental infections usually includes dental extractions (DE), but the safety of extractions in patients with HM who are at risk for bleeding, sepsis, and poor wound healing has not been well established. In conjunction with an aggressive program of dental care, 142 DE were performed in 26 patients with acute leukemia, myelodysplastic syndromes, and myeloproliferative disorders. Granulocytopenia (less than 1,000 granulocytes/microL) was present during or within ten days following surgery in 14 patients. In these 14 patients (101 DE), the mean granulocyte count was less than 450/microL, with a median duration of granulocytopenia following surgery of 32 days (range, four to 169 days). Thrombocytopenia (less than 100,000 platelets/microL) occurred during or within two days following surgery in 13 patients (80 DE), with a mean platelet count of 63,500/microL. Transfusions were given for platelet counts less than 50,000/microL. All DE were performed without significant complications. Bleeding was minor to moderate and easily controlled with local measures; no patient required transfusion due to hemorrhage. Average maximum temperature 24 hours after DE was 37.7 degrees C. No episodes of bacteremia were documented within ten days of DE. Minor delay in wound healing was observed in two patients. We conclude that DE can be safely performed in patients with HM in combination with aggressive supportive care.

Influence of season and environment on fertility of goats in a hot-arid environment

2002 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. MELLADO ◽  
C. A. MEZA-HERRERA
Keyword(s):  
Arid Environment ◽  
Conception Rate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
Northern Mexico ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Breeding Efficiency

Conception rate and prolificacy of dairy and crossbred goats under intensive conditions in an arid environment of northern Mexico (26° 06′ 15′′ N; maximum temperature throughout the year 12–42 °C, mean annual precipitation 186 mm, and RH <40% year-round) were examined with respect to season of mating, ambient temperature and rainfall at mating. The database contained 4194 natural services. Conception of goats inseminated with average maximum ambient temperatures >34 °C was significantly higher (P<0·01) than conception of goats inseminated when the average maximum temperature 3 days before breeding was <34 °C. The warmest season favoured conception rate (70% in spring; P<0·01) as compared to cooler seasons (62% and 64% for summer and autumn, respectively). Conception rate of goats bred when rain was present was 14 percentage points lower (P<0·01) compared to mating with no rain. When maximum temperatures on the day of mating were >34 °C, cooler temperatures 1 to 3 days before or after the day of mating were associated with a significant increase in the number of kids born. When the maximum temperature at mating was >36 °C, prolificacy for goats exposed to higher or lower temperatures 1 day before mating was 1·56 and 1·65, respectively (P<0·05). Similarly, when the maximum temperature at mating was 34–36 °C, prolificacy was higher for goats exposed to cooler temperatures as compared to warmer temperatures 1 day (1·64 v. 1·49; P<0·01) or 3 days (1·63 v. 1·48; P<0·01) after mating, with respect to the temperature on the day of mating. Conclusions were that conception rate was not compromised in non-lactating Alpine, Toggenburg, Granadino and Nubian goats subjected to high environmental temperature in an arid region, but the occurrence of rain at mating depressed breeding efficiency of these animals. Additionally, an increment in litter size is expected with cooler temperatures before or after hot days at time of mating.

Research on Heat Transfer and Environmental Impact of Horizontal Ground Heat Exchangers in Multi-Grooves

2012 ◽  
Vol 516-517 ◽  
pp. 395-400
Author(s):  
Zhong Yi Yu ◽  
Yan Hua Chen ◽  
Min Rui Zhou ◽  
Jian Ping Lei
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Heat Exchangers ◽  
Temperature Drop ◽  
Heat Extraction ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Pump System ◽  
Heat Pump System ◽  
Ground Heat Exchangers ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature

This paper progresses to dynamically simulate and study the heat transfer process of horizontal ground heat exchangers in the multi-grooves by the use of numerical simulation based on the layout and heat extraction or rejection conditions of horizontal ground heat exchangers under the artificial lake. Effect of buried pipe type and groove spacing on the heat exchanger process is analyzed in detail. The influence of annual average water temperature change on the surrounding environment is evaluated with the introduction of parameters including summer weekly average maximum temperature rise and winter weekly average maximum temperature drop, in which can take the technical supports for the design of horizontal ground source heat pump system.

scholarly journals THE ANALYSIS OF SOIL TEMPERATURES IN DIFFERENT DEPTHS USING SPEARMAN’S RHO AND MANN-KENDALL CORRELATION TESTS: THE CASE STUDY OF NIGDE CENTER IN TURKEY

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 38-55
Author(s):  
M. Cüneyt Bagdatlı ◽  
Yiğitcan Ballı
Keyword(s):  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Significant Trend ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Soil Temperatures ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Kendall Correlation

This research was conducted to determine soil temperatures in different soil depths in located Turkey’s Anatolia Region in Center of Nigde Province. In the study, the maximum, minimum and average soil temperature values of 10 cm, 50 cm and 100 cm depths observed between 1970-2019 were examined. All soil temperature data were evaluated monthly within the scope of the study. In the study, Mann-Kendall, Sperman's Rho correlation test and Sen's slope method were used.  According to the research result; The average of maximum soil temperatures in 10 cm depth was calculated as 6,8 0C in winter months and 20,7 0C in spring months. The average minimum soil temperature was calculated as 0,3 0C in winter and 5,0 0C in spring Months in long periods Generally, it was observed that there was an increasingly significant trend at maximum temperatures of 10 cm depth. According to the Mann-Kendal facility, a significant increase trend was observed in minimum soil temperatures in spring, winter and Summer months except for the months of autumn. Considering the average maximum temperature values in 50 cm; It was calculated as 6,6 °C in winter and 13,6 °C in spring months. The minimum soil temperature average was calculated as 3,5 0C in winter and 8,3 0C in spring months in long period (50 year, 600 months). In general, it was observed that there was an increasingly significant trend at maximum temperatures of 50 cm soil depth. According to Mann-Kendall and Sperman Rho test, a significant increase trend was observed in minimum soil temperatures in all seasons except for autumn months. According to the average maximum temperature values in 100 cm depth; It was calculated as 9,2 0C in winter and 11,5 0C in spring. The minimum soil temperature average was calculated as 7,1 0C in winter and 8.7 0C in spring months. It has been observed that there is a significant increase trend in the increasing of maximum and minimum soil temperatures of 100 cm soil depth.

scholarly journals ESTIMACIÓN DE LA PRODUCTIVIDAD PRIMARIA DURANTE OTOÑO-INVIERNO EN LA BAHÍA DE LA PAZ, B.C.S., MÉXICO

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
G. Verdugo-Díaz ◽  
M. O. Albáñez-Lucero ◽  
R. Cervantes Duarte
Keyword(s):  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
La Paz ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature

Se analizó la variabilidad de la productividad primaria en Bahía de La Paz, durante noviembre de 1997 y 2000, enero de 1998 y febrero de 2001. Se identificó Agua del Golfo de California en mayor proporción; Agua Superficial Ecuatorial y Agua Subsuperficial Subtropical. En noviembre de 1997 se registró el valor promedio máximo de temperatura (~27.62 °C) y en febrero el valor mínimo (~19.16 °C). El índice de Simpson (Ö) indicó que durante noviembre de 1997 (~286.6 J m-3) la columna de agua presentó mayor estratificación, mientras que en noviembre de 1998 (~60.4 J m-3) y febrero de 2001 (~94.5 J m-3) se encontró mezclada. En noviembre de 1997 se registraron bajos valores de nitratos (~1.52 µM), nitritos (~0.04 µM) y clorofila a (~0.44 mg Cla m-3). En febrero de 2001 se registraron valores mayores de nitratos (~7.46 µM), nitritos (~0.76 µM) y clorofila a (~1.07 mg Cla m-3). La productividad primaria superficial e integrada presentaron sus promedios máximos en noviembre de 2000 (~5.09 mg C m-3 h-1 y 75.54. mg m-2 h-1) y mínimos en noviembre de 1997 (~2.93 mg C m-3 h-1 y ~55.29 mg m-2 h-1), respectivamente. De acuerdo a investigaciones anteriores, los valores reportados de productividad son característicos de la temporada fría de la bahía con excepción de noviembre de 1997, que presentó influencia de El Niño. Primary productivity stimation during autumm-winter in Bahía de La Paz, B.C.S., Mexico We analyzed the variability of primary productivity in Bahía de La Paz during November 1997 and 2000, January 1998 and February 2001. Water was identified in the Gulf of California in higher proportion; Surface Water and Water Subsuperficial Equatorial Subtropical. In November 1997 we saw the average maximum temperature (~ 27.62 ° C) in February and the lowest value (~ 19.16 ° C). The index of Simpson (Ö) indicated that during November 1997 (~ 286.6 J-3 m) column of water with greater stratification, while in November 1998 (~ 60.4 m J-3) and February 2001 (~ 94.5 J m-3) was mixed. In November 1997 there were low values of nitrate (~ 1.52 µM), nitrites (~ 0.04 µM) and chlorophyll a (Cla ~ 0.44 mg m-3). In February 2001, there were larger values of nitrate (~ 7.46 µM), nitrites (~ 0.76 µM) and chlorophyll a (Cla ~ 1.07 mg m-3). The primary productivity and integrated surface presented their highest averages in November 2000 (C ~ 5.09 mg m-3 h-1 and 75.54. mg m-2 h-1) and minimum in November 1997 (C ~ 2.93 mg m-3 h-1 and ~ 55.29 mg m-2 h-1), respectively. According to previous research, reported productivity values are characteristic of the cold season of the bay with exception of November 1997, which showed influence of El Niño.

scholarly journals Variability and Trend of Seasonal Climatic Variables in Dinajpur District

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
JA Syeda
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Rabi Season ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
Average Minimum Temperature ◽  
Eda Tools

An attempt was made to investigate the seasonal (three crop seasons) trend and variability of 20 climatic variables of Dinajpur district for 1948-2004. The variety of Exploratory Data Analyses (EDA) tools and different robust and nonrobust measures are used for the analyses. The rates of total rainfall are observed positive for all the three seasons but the residuals are nonormal and/or nonstationary. The rates were found significant positive for average dry bulb temperature (+0.00655°Cyr-1) but negative for   total frequency of zero rainfall (-0.0846daysyr-1) during Kharif season and significant positive for average minimum temperature(+0.0175°Cyr-1) but negative for range temperature (-0.0456°Cyr-1 ) and maximum temperature (-0.0281°Cyr-1) during Rabi season. Historical climatic data needs exploratory analysis and warrants tougher justification in classical analyses for outlier and residual’s nonnormality and nonstationarity. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v5i1.11549 J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 5(1): 19 – 28, 2012  

scholarly journals A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Rocha ◽  
Susana C. Pereira ◽  
Carolina Viceto ◽  
Rui Silva ◽  
Jorge Neto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Accumulated Temperature

Heat waves are large-scale atmospheric phenomena that may cause heat stress in ecosystems and socio-economic activities. In cities, morbidity and mortality may increase during a heat wave, overloading health and emergency services. In the face of climate change and associated warming, cities need to adapt and mitigate the effects of heat waves. This study suggests a new method to evaluate heat waves’ impacts on cities by considering some aspects of heat waves that are not usually considered in other similar studies. The method devises heat wave quantities that are easy to calculate; it is relevant to assessing their impacts and permits the development of adaptation measures. This study applies the suggested method to quantify various aspects of heat waves in Lisbon for future climate projections considering future mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2081–2100) climates under the RCP8.5 greenhouse emission scenario. This is achieved through the analysis of various regional climate simulations performed with the WRF model and an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX models. This allows an estimation of uncertainty and confidence of the projections. To evaluate the climate change properties of heat waves, statistics for future climates are compared to those for a reference recent climate. Simulated temperatures are first bias corrected to minimize the model systematic errors relative to observations. The temperature for mid and long-term futures is expected to increase relative to the present by 1.6 °C and 3.6 °C, respectively, with late summer months registering the highest increases. The number of heat wave days per year will increase on average from 10, in the present climate, to 38 and 63 in mid and long-term climates, respectively. Heat wave duration, intensity, average maximum temperature, and accumulated temperature during a heat wave will also increase. Heat waves account for an annual average of accumulated temperature of 358 °C·day in the present climate, while in the mid and long-term, future climates account for 1270 °C·day and 2078 °C·day, respectively. The largest increases are expected to occur from July to October. Extreme intensity and long-duration heat waves with an average maximum temperature of more than 40 °C are expected to occur in the future climates.

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