scholarly journals A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Rocha ◽  
Susana C. Pereira ◽  
Carolina Viceto ◽  
Rui Silva ◽  
Jorge Neto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Accumulated Temperature

Heat waves are large-scale atmospheric phenomena that may cause heat stress in ecosystems and socio-economic activities. In cities, morbidity and mortality may increase during a heat wave, overloading health and emergency services. In the face of climate change and associated warming, cities need to adapt and mitigate the effects of heat waves. This study suggests a new method to evaluate heat waves’ impacts on cities by considering some aspects of heat waves that are not usually considered in other similar studies. The method devises heat wave quantities that are easy to calculate; it is relevant to assessing their impacts and permits the development of adaptation measures. This study applies the suggested method to quantify various aspects of heat waves in Lisbon for future climate projections considering future mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2081–2100) climates under the RCP8.5 greenhouse emission scenario. This is achieved through the analysis of various regional climate simulations performed with the WRF model and an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX models. This allows an estimation of uncertainty and confidence of the projections. To evaluate the climate change properties of heat waves, statistics for future climates are compared to those for a reference recent climate. Simulated temperatures are first bias corrected to minimize the model systematic errors relative to observations. The temperature for mid and long-term futures is expected to increase relative to the present by 1.6 °C and 3.6 °C, respectively, with late summer months registering the highest increases. The number of heat wave days per year will increase on average from 10, in the present climate, to 38 and 63 in mid and long-term climates, respectively. Heat wave duration, intensity, average maximum temperature, and accumulated temperature during a heat wave will also increase. Heat waves account for an annual average of accumulated temperature of 358 °C·day in the present climate, while in the mid and long-term, future climates account for 1270 °C·day and 2078 °C·day, respectively. The largest increases are expected to occur from July to October. Extreme intensity and long-duration heat waves with an average maximum temperature of more than 40 °C are expected to occur in the future climates.

scholarly journals Maximum Temperatures and Heat Waves in Mexicali, Mexico: Trends and Threshold Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. ASWR.S32778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polioptro F. Martínez Austria ◽  
Erick R. Bandala
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The City

Maximum temperature trends and the corresponding heat wave thresholds in the northwestern city of Mexicali, Mexico, were analyzed using historical data from the site. We found that there seems to be an upward trend in temperature in the past decades, along with an increased number of days reaching maximum temperatures considered as heat waves. Despite the difficulty of establishing heat wave parameters, the trends of the analyzed field data clearly show their presence, mainly during July and August. This trend is also supported by the analysis of the number of admissions and casualties registered in hospitals in the city of Mexicali. This work is a warning on the frequency and duration of a very important climate change-related effect capable of jeopardizing the health of the population in the region and requiring more attention by decision makers and stakeholders. It also helps to document observed climate trends, as requested by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

scholarly journals Analysis of the episodes of tropospheric ozone concentration in relation with hot days and heat waves in Warsaw

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 ◽  
pp. 02010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Rozbicka ◽  
Tomasz Rozbicki
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Limit Value ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

The study presents the characteristics of the occurrence of smog episodes - days with exceeded the limit value of 8-hour tropospheric ozone concentration (120 μg.m-3) with the occurrence of hot days (maximum air temperature greater than 25°C), very hot (maximum air temperature greater than 30°C) and heat waves during 13-year period 2004-2016 in the area of Warsaw, Poland. In the analyzed period, the average number of hot days was 45, and very hot days was 8. The highest number of these days occurred in 2015, 54 and 20 days respectively. Heat waves were short and lasted usually 3-4 days. The highest number of them was recorded in 2010 and 2015 (14 days). The highest ozone concentration value 189 μg.m-3was recorded on 28 May 2005, thus exceeding the information threshold (180 μg.m-3for the value of 1 hour ozone concentration). However, the number of days with the exceeded limit value of ozone concentration was not in any year exceeded the target value, i.e. 25 days in a calendar year. The relatively stronger relationship (R=0.513) in comparison to others obtained between average maximum temperature during LTO exceedance days and average ozone concentration during these days but it was not statistically significant.

scholarly journals Temperature and Patterns of Occurrence and Abundance of Key Copepod Taxa in the Northeast Pacific

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Ashlock ◽  
Marisol García-Reyes ◽  
Chelle Gentemann ◽  
Sonia Batten ◽  
William Sydeman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Food Resource ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Thermal Threshold ◽  
Northeast Pacific

The Northeast Pacific is a highly heterogeneous and productive ecosystem, yet it is vulnerable to climate change and extreme events such as marine heat waves. Recent heat wave induced die-offs of fish, marine mammals, and seabirds in the Gulf of Alaska were associated with the loss of large, lipid-rich copepods, which are a vital food resource for forage fishes. The critical and temperature sensitive role of copepods in this ecosystem motivates our investigation into the impacts of temperature on copepod occurrence, abundance, and phenology. Here, we pair long term in situ copepod data from Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys with satellite temperature data to determine the influence of water temperature on three key copepod taxa: Neocalanus plumchrus, Calanus pacificus, and Oithona spp. Through the use of linear models and thermal threshold methods, we demonstrate that N. plumchrus is most vulnerable to warming and future marine heat waves in this region. Linear models demonstrate that N. plumchrus abundance is negatively related to temperature, and thermal threshold methods reveal that N. plumchrus has an upper thermal threshold of 11.5°C for occurrence, and 10.5°C for abundance. Additionally, examining N. plumchrus abundance before and during the 2014–2016 marine heat wave demonstrates reduced species abundance during past warming events. Oithona spp. and C. pacificus appear to be less vulnerable to warm temperatures. However, their presence will not be sufficient to supplement the loss of the larger-bodied and lipid-rich N. plumchrus. Our findings demonstrate the power of using long-term in situ data to determine thermal tolerances, and suggest the need to further examine the potential resilience of N. plumchrus to climate change.

scholarly journals Physical Understanding of Human-Induced Changes in U.S. Hot Droughts Using Equilibrium Climate Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (14) ◽  
pp. 4431-4443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linyin Cheng ◽  
Martin Hoerling ◽  
Zhiyong Liu ◽  
Jon Eischeid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Wave Intensity ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Northeastern United States ◽  
Southern Great Plains

Abstract Although the link between droughts and heat waves is widely recognized, how climate change affects this link remains uncertain. Here we assess how, and by how much, human-induced climate change affects summertime hot drought compound events over the contiguous United States. Results are derived by comparing hot drought statistics in long simulations of a coupled climate model (CESM1) subjected to year-1850 and year-2000 radiative forcings. Within each climate state, a strong and nonlinear dependency of heat-wave intensity on drought severity is found in water-limited regions of the southern Great Plains and southwestern United States whereas heat-wave intensity is found to be insensitive to drought severity in energy-limited regions of the northern and/or northeastern United States. Applying a statistical model that is based on pair-copula constructions, we find that anthropogenic warming leads to enhanced soil moisture–temperature coupling in water-limited areas of the southern Great Plains and/or southwestern United States and consequently amplifies the intensity of extreme heat waves during severe droughts. This strengthened coupling accounts for a substantial fraction of rising temperature extremes related to the long-term climate change in CESM1, highlighting the importance of changes in land–atmosphere feedback in a warmer climate. In contrast, coupling effects remain weak and largely unchanged in energy-limited regions, thereby yielding no appreciable contribution to heat-wave intensification over the northern and/or northeastern United States apart from the long-term warming effects.

scholarly journals Temperature Changes in Kaski District of Nepal: A Study of Trends (1970-2018)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 42-53
Author(s):  
Rajendra Prasad Upadhayaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Climate change is one of the most complex and crucial issues in the world. It has impacted environmental, social, and economic sectors of our planet. Unsurprisingly, Nepal is not immune to climate change. In fact, it is one of the most susceptible countries to climate change. One of the most impacted variables in Nepal due to climate change is the maximum temperature. The rate of change of temperature per year, in Nepal is ever-increasing. This paper examines the temperature trend and how it has affected environmental, social, and economic sustainability of Kaski District in Nepal. The paper utilizes the maximum temperature trend of Kaski District during 1970-2018. The monthly minimum and maximum temperatures are obtained from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). The study is done based on the data obtained from Pokhara Airport and Lumle stations. The paper uses three statistical tools alongside descriptive statistics to analyze the data. First, the Man-Kendall test is used to figure out the trend of temperature. Second, Sen’s slope is used to find the magnitude of a trend. Third, the Time series model has been used for forecasting temperature trends. Finally, SPSS and R software were used to calculate the results. The trend of maximum temperature has been significantly increased in Kaski District. The maximum temperature in Kaski during 1970-2018, recorded, was 24.99°C in 2005 and was closely followed by 24.66°C temperature in 2010. The average maximum temperature during the 1970-2018 period was 23.49°C. The maximum variation of maximum temperature during 1970-2018 was in 1992 with a standard deviation of 5.94°C. The minimum temperature during 1970-2018 was 21.12°C in 1978 and was closely followed by 22.19°C in 1997. There is an increasing trend of maximum temperature in Kaski District. In addition, the trend of maximum temperature is higher and faster after 1998 in Kaski District of Western Nepal during 1970-2018.

scholarly journals Perspective Response of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Crops in Sauraha-Pharsatikar VDC, Rupandehi District, Nepal

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-355
Author(s):  
Kapil Khanal ◽  
Subodh Khanal ◽  
Surya Mani Dhungana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cereal Crops ◽  
Agricultural Crops ◽  
Farming Communities ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Average Minimum Temperature

A survey research was conducted in Sauraha-Pharsatikar VDC of the Rupandehi district to study the perspective response of the farming communities on the impacts of the climate change in agricultural crops. Primary information was collected from household survey by administering pre-tested questionnaire and necessary data were collected from National Wheat Research Project (NWRP), Bhairahawa. Several results are obtained on the recall basis of the respondents thus they can not assumed correctly and all the past information provided by the farmers cannot be cross checked due to the lack of sufficient and reliable system for recording and checking. The trend analysis of rainfall data of Bhairahawa of 30 years (1984-2013) showed that the pattern of rainfall was irregular and it was in a decreasing trend by 1.944 mm per year and average maximum temperature has increased by 0.0.15oC and average minimum temperature has increased by 0.0.61oC per year which justifies that the summers are growing hotter and winters are growing warmer. About 52% of the respondents suggested monsoon starts earlier, 85% suggested there is more intense rain during the monsoon and 91.75% suggested drought has increased. 98.33% of the respondents perceived that the summer has become hotter. In general there is increase in the yield of cereal crops whereas the yield of pulses, legumes and vegetables had declined. Int. J. Appl. Sci. Biotechnol. Vol 5(3): 345-355

scholarly journals The climate change influences and trends on the grapevine growing in Southern Romania: A long-term study

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 01008
Author(s):  
G.M. Bucur ◽  
G.A. Cojocaru ◽  
A.O. Antoce
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Climatic Indices ◽  
Grape Quality ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature

The topography and pedoclimatic conditions in Romania are diverse and in many places highly favourable for viticulture. In the past 21 years it was observed that the climate slowly changed, with a visible impact on grape quality. The influence of climate change on grape growing depends however on the vineyard location, relief and soil, multiple combination of varieties and rootstocks, water supply, as well as viticultural practices. The influence of the climate change was studied during a long period of time, between 1998 and 2018, in our experimental vineyard at UASVM Bucharest (N Lat.: 44∘47′07′′; E Long.: 26∘076′28′′; elevation 87 m), located in the Southern part of Romania. The observations made during last twenty one years on qualitative and quantitative parameters of the most widespread Romanian grape variety, Fetească regală grafted on the Kober 5 BB rootstock, along with the calculated values for the usual climatic indices describing viticultural climate, showed some significant climate changes in comparison with a reference period between 1961 and 1997 taken from the existent scientific literature. Our observations during past twenty years reveal a trend of increase in all studied temperature-dependent climatic indices during the grape growing season, with a large variation in the absolute minimum temperatures during winter, which suggests a shift towards an increased thermal amplitude between summer and winter temperatures in certain years. Compared with the reference period (1961–1997), an increase in the following temperature-dependent indices was observed: +0.75 ∘C for the average annual temperature; +0.78 ∘C for average temperature in the growing season; +2.37 ∘C for average maximum temperature in the warmest month; +2.11 ∘C for average maximum temperature in the summer; +234 units in Huglin index; + 173 units in Winkler index and +0.35 ∘C in Cool night index. These climate changes bring important variations of grape yield due to the minimum temperatures during winter and significant reduction of total acidity, along with a significant increase of sugar concentration. This study aids to understand and anticipate the rate of climate change in Southern Romania, the extent of the changes in grape quality and the interventions required to maintain constant grape and wine quality.

Degradation of trifluralin in three Victorian soils —long-term field trials

1998 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 363 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. K. Johnstone ◽  
A. V. Jolley ◽  
G. R. Code ◽  
M. R. Moerkerk ◽  
A. Corbett
Keyword(s):  
Field Trials ◽  
Application Rate ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Measured Concentration ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Residue Concentration

Summary. The persistence of trifluralin was investigated at 3 sites in southern Australia over 8 years. Persistence varied from year-to-year, with the highest persistence being recorded at all sites in the dry year of 1984. Trifluralin persistence (expressed as a percentage of the initial measured concentration) 1 year after application was lowest at Rutherglen (7–22%), followed by Dooen (7–26%) and Walpeup (13–120%). Trifluralin degradation at Walpeup in 1984 was negligible. The resultant high residue concentrations would have posed a threat to subsequent crops. However, 1 year later after the subsequent fallow, the residue concentration had dropped to more typical levels. Trifluralin did not accumulate after repeated application (either 1 or 2 years apart) at all 3 sites. It was found important to measure the amount of trifluralin in the soil immediately after application because the trifluralin concentration could not be assumed from the rate. Soil concentrations immediately after application ranged from 32 to 138% of that expected from the nominal application rate. Therefore, measuring initial concentrations when comparisons were to be made between treatments, years and sites, was essential. In addition to studies of 1 year persistence, trifluralin concentration was also measured 2 years after application at Walpeup and Dooen. There was evidence to suggest that the rate of degradation over the same 1 year period, was different for a recent application when compared with weathered trifluralin residues from a previous application. Correlations between persistence and various weather factors indicated that the most influential factors were those that occurred in the first 60 days after application. These included total rainfall, effective rainfall (rainfall minus evaporation) and average maximum temperature.

The Impact of Heat Waves on Mortality in Nanjing Area from 2004 to 2010

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 931-935
Author(s):  
Yuan Shu Jing ◽  
Di Zhang ◽  
Min Fei Yan ◽  
Jian Guo Tan
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Residual Disease ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzed the excess mortality change in nine districts of Nanjing city, based on mortality data and meteorological data from 2004 to 2010. Taken a typical heat waves process in summer of 2006 as an example, it was discussed of the effect of the heat process on different gender, different age groups , and various disease death toll and excess mortality changes. The excess mortality was associated with the average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature during the heat waves. Excess mortality occurred in the middle of June heat wave when excess mortality was much higher than in other time periods. In late June, early July to early August, the excess mortality is relatively small. The average daily deaths are increasing with increasing age for male and female, and every age death numbers is higher than that with no heat waves during the heat wave period. In addition to the respiratory system diseases, diseases of the genitourinary system, other diseases, residual disease in the heat waves has increased, and diseases of the nervous system and the endocrine system diseases of excess mortality rate reached a staggering 342.93% and 119.63%, accounting for almost half of the total heat excess mortality. The heat waves effect is very obvious. The conclusion is of great significance for prevention of high temperature heat harm.

scholarly journals The Effect of the Thermal Mass of the Building Envelope on Summer Overheating of Dwellings in a Temperate Climate

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4117
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Kuczyński ◽  
Anna Staszczuk ◽  
Piotr Ziembicki ◽  
Anna Paluszak
Keyword(s):  
Building Materials ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Thermal Mass ◽  
Occupant Behavior ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Night Ventilation

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the effectiveness of increasing the thermal capacity of a residential building by using traditional building materials to reduce the risk of its excessive overheating during intense heat waves in a temperate climate. An additional objective is to show that the use of this single passive measure significantly reduces the risk of overheating in daytime rooms, but also, though to a much lesser extent, in bedrooms. Increasing the thermal mass of the room from light to a medium heavy reduced the average maximum daily temperature by 2.2K during the first heat wave and by 2.6K during the other two heat waves. The use of very heavy construction further reduced the average maximum temperature for the heat waves analyzed by 1.4K, 1.2K and 1.7K, respectively, giving a total possible reduction in maximum daily temperatures in the range of 3.6 °C, 3.8 °C and 4.3 °C. A discussion of the influence of occupant behavior on the use of night ventilation and external blinds was carried out, finding a significant effect on the effectiveness of the use of both methods. The results of the study suggest that in temperate European countries, preserving residential construction methods with heavy envelopes and partitions could significantly reduce the risk of overheating in residential buildings over the next few decades, without the need for night ventilation or external blinds, whose effectiveness is highly dependent on individual occupant behavior.

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