Heat waves across Europe by the end of the 21st century: multiregional climate simulations

An assessment of temperature extremes is made for the Indian subcontinent to identify the changes since 1951 to 2015, and for the future climate periods till 2100 for all the 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model intercomparision Project phase 5) models and the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were examined for the period from 1 March to 31 May to characterize the heat waves in future climates and mean maximum and mean minimum bias were evaluated for the Indian subcontinent. Later two highest recorded temperature regions were chosen Northwest & Central India (NW&CIN) and only central India (CIN) box and the features of heat waves such as intensity and frequency were evaluated up to 2100. Corresponding temperature predictions from historical runs for the period 1951–2005 of 21 global CMIP model outputs and statistics were performed with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded maximum temperature data for validation. Statistical metrics of BIAS, RMSE and MAE have indicated low BIAS, high correlation and high IOA (Index of Agreement) validating CMIP climate simulations. By analyzing the statistics of all the 21 models with respect to the observational gridded data from IMD came to conclusion that among all the 21 models 5 models were performing well for Indian region and having good index of agreement with IMD. The frequencies of the days having thresholds of 40 ºC, 42 ºC and 45 ºC for the maximum temperature over India during the pre-monsoon are evaluated up to 21st century. All models are showing that the intensity and frequency of heat waves were increasing significantly for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Specifically, the characteristics of heat waves in terms of intensity, duration and area extent are calculated and compared to heat waves of the current climate.

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Compound extremes in a changing climate – a Markov chain approach

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ◽

10.5194/npg-23-375-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 23 (6) ◽

pp. 375-390 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Katrin Sedlmeier ◽

Sebastian Mieruch ◽

Gerd Schädler ◽

Christoph Kottmeier

Keyword(s):

Extreme Events ◽

Climate Models ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Dynamic Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Northern Germany ◽

Russian Region ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Potential Impact

Abstract. Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts depends not only on their number of occurrences but also on "how these extremes occur", i.e., the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951–2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for central Europe (1971–2000, 2021–2050) for two types of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which turned out to be likely susceptible to a future change in the succession of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, including a region in southwestern France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. A change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer can be expected for regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.

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Climate Scenarios and Agricultural Indices: A Case Study for Switzerland

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11050535 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 535

Author(s):

Flavian Tschurr ◽

Iris Feigenwinter ◽

Andreas M. Fischer ◽

Sven Kotlarski

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Climate Variables ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

High Emission ◽

Projection Analysis ◽

Horizontal Pattern

The CH2018 Climate Scenarios for Switzerland are evaluated with respect to the representation of 24 indices with agricultural relevance. Furthermore, future projections of the considered indices until the end of the 21st century are analyzed for two greenhouse gas scenarios (Representative Concentrations Pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The validation reveals good results for indices that are based on one or two climate variables only and on simple temporal aggregations. Indices that involve multiple climate variables, complex temporal statistics or extreme conditions are less well represented. The climate projection analysis indicates an intensification of temperature-related extreme events such as heat waves. In general, climate change signals in the indices considered are subject to three main patterns: a horizontal pattern across Switzerland, a vertical pattern depending on elevation and a temporal pattern with an intensification of change in the course of the 21st century. Changes are in most cases more pronounced for the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario compared to the mitigation scenario RCP2.6. Overall, the projections indicate a challenging 21st century climate for the agricultural sector. Our findings furthermore show the value and the necessity of a robust validation of climate scenario products to enable trustworthy and valuable impact analyses, especially for more complex indices and models.

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General overview of the potential effect of extreme temperature change on society and economyin Poland in the 21st century

Geofizika ◽

10.15233/gfz.2019.36.14 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (2) ◽

pp. 131-152

Author(s):

Joanna Jędruszkiewicz ◽

Joanna Wibig

Keyword(s):

Thermal Comfort ◽

21St Century ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Climate Models ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Winter Season ◽

Extreme Temperature ◽

Excessive Heat

This work gives an overview on how the projected changes in the extremes in Poland might impact human health and economy. For that purpose, statisti-cally corrected data from 7 regional climate models were used. A significant increase of extreme hot events (i.e. heat waves, tropical nights) is projected for Central and Southern Poland for the end of the 21st century which might seri-ously affect a society living in large urban areas. Less extreme cold events im-prove thermal comfort in winter. The negative impact of the warming will affect energy systems with higher demand for electricity in summer and agriculture: an earlier beginning of the growing season and flower blooming will enhance the risk of frost damages in spring, whereas excessive heat will reduce yields in summer. Polish tourism should benefit from higher thermal comfort (except for hot July and August in the far future and warming in the winter season bring-ing snow cover depletion in the near future).

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Excess Mortality in Istanbul during Extreme Heat Waves between 2013 and 2017

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16224348 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (22) ◽

pp. 4348 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Günay Can ◽

Ümit Şahin ◽

Uğurcan Sayılı ◽

Marjolaine Dubé ◽

Beril Kara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Intervention Studies ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Epidemiological Studies ◽

Extreme Heat ◽

Mortality And Morbidity ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Morbidity Risks ◽

Excess Deaths

Heat waves are one of the most common direct impacts of anthropogenic climate change and excess mortality their most apparent impact. While Turkey has experienced an increase in heat wave episodes between 1971 and 2016, no epidemiological studies have examined their potential impacts on public health so far. In this study excess mortality in Istanbul attributable to extreme heat wave episodes between 2013 and 2017 is presented. Total excess deaths were calculated using mortality rates across different categories, including age, sex, and cause of death. The analysis shows that three extreme heat waves in the summer months of 2015, 2016, and 2017, which covered 14 days in total, significantly increased the mortality rate and caused 419 excess deaths in 23 days of exposure. As climate simulations show that Turkey is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Europe region to the increased intensity of heat waves until the end of the 21st century, further studies about increased mortality and morbidity risks due to heat waves in Istanbul and other cities, as well as intervention studies, are necessary.

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Projected changes in risk of heat waves throughout Belt and Road Region in the 21st century

Chinese Science Bulletin (Chinese Version) ◽

10.1360/tb-2020-1171 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Fang Wang ◽

Jintao Zhang ◽

Quansheng Ge ◽

Zhixin Hao

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Belt And Road ◽

Changes In Risk ◽

Projected Changes

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Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12081026 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. 1026

Author(s):

Amatus Gyilbag ◽

Martial Amou ◽

Roberto Xavier Supe Tulcan ◽

Lei Zhang ◽

Tsedale Demelash ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

21St Century ◽

Lake Victoria ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Spatial Extent ◽

Observation Data ◽

Reference Period ◽

Poverty Eradication ◽

Lake Victoria Basin ◽

Climate Simulations

Extreme hot temperature is dangerous to the bioeconomy, and would worsen with time. Ambient heatwaves accompanied by unusual droughts are major threats to poverty eradication in Tanzania. Due to sparsity of observation data and proper heatwave detection metrics, there has been a paucity of knowledge about heatwave events in Tanzania. In this study, the Heatwave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was adopted to quantitatively analyze heatwave characteristics throughout Tanzania at mid-21st century (2041–2070) and end of 21st century (2071–2100), relative to the reference period (1983–2012) using the CHIRTS-daily quasi-global high-resolution temperature dataset and climate simulations from a multi-modal ensemble of median scenarios (RCP4.5, from CORDEX-Africa). The results showed that moderate to super-extreme heatwaves occurred in Tanzania between 1983 and 2012, particularly in 1999, when ultra-extreme heatwaves (HWMId > 32) occurred in the Lake Victoria basin. It is projected that by mid-21st century, the upper category of HWMId would be hotter and longer, and would occur routinely in Tanzania. The spatial extent of all of the HWMId categories is projected to range from 34% to 73% by the end of the 21st century with a duration of 8 to 35 days, compared to 1 to 5 days during the reference period. These findings will contribute to increasing public awareness of the need for adaptation.

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Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-24113-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Zhonghua Zheng ◽

Lei Zhao ◽

Keith W. Oleson

Keyword(s):

Heat Waves ◽

Global Climate ◽

Urban Climate ◽

Central India ◽

Structural Uncertainty ◽

Single Model ◽

High Stake ◽

Socioeconomic Impacts ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Urban Heat

AbstractUrban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Here, we use an urban climate emulator combined with large ensemble global climate simulations to show that, at the urban scale a large proportion of the variability results from the model structural uncertainty in projecting UHWs in the coming decades under climate change. Omission of this uncertainty would considerably underestimate the risk of UHW. Results show that, for cities in four high-stake regions – the Great Lakes of North America, Southern Europe, Central India, and North China – a virtually unlikely (0.01% probability) UHW projected by single-model ensembles is estimated by our model with probabilities of 23.73%, 4.24%, 1.56%, and 14.76% respectively in 2061–2070 under a high-emission scenario. Our findings suggest that for urban-scale extremes, policymakers and stakeholders will have to plan for larger uncertainties than what a single model predicts if decisions are informed based on urban climate simulations.

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