Centuries of Heat Waves over India during 20th and 21st Century

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Naveena Neelam ◽  
Gubbala C. Satyanerayana ◽  
Kota S. Rao ◽  
Nandivada Umakantha ◽  
Dharma Raju
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Central India ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Index Of Agreement ◽  
Recorded Temperature

An assessment of temperature extremes is made for the Indian subcontinent to identify the changes since 1951 to 2015, and for the future climate periods till 2100 for all the 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model intercomparision Project phase 5) models and the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were examined for the period from 1 March to 31 May to characterize the heat waves in future climates and mean maximum and mean minimum bias were evaluated for the Indian subcontinent. Later two highest recorded temperature regions were chosen Northwest & Central India (NW&CIN) and only central India (CIN) box and the features of heat waves such as intensity and frequency were evaluated up to 2100. Corresponding temperature predictions from historical runs for the period 1951–2005 of 21 global CMIP model outputs and statistics were performed with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded maximum temperature data for validation. Statistical metrics of BIAS, RMSE and MAE have indicated low BIAS, high correlation and high IOA (Index of Agreement) validating CMIP climate simulations. By analyzing the statistics of all the 21 models with respect to the observational gridded data from IMD came to conclusion that among all the 21 models 5 models were performing well for Indian region and having good index of agreement with IMD. The frequencies of the days having thresholds of 40 ºC, 42 ºC and 45 ºC for the maximum temperature over India during the pre-monsoon are evaluated up to 21st century. All models are showing that the intensity and frequency of heat waves were increasing significantly for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Specifically, the characteristics of heat waves in terms of intensity, duration and area extent are calculated and compared to heat waves of the current climate.

scholarly journals Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhonghua Zheng ◽  
Lei Zhao ◽  
Keith W. Oleson
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Central India ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Single Model ◽  
High Stake ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Urban Heat

AbstractUrban heat waves (UHWs) are strongly associated with socioeconomic impacts. Here, we use an urban climate emulator combined with large ensemble global climate simulations to show that, at the urban scale a large proportion of the variability results from the model structural uncertainty in projecting UHWs in the coming decades under climate change. Omission of this uncertainty would considerably underestimate the risk of UHW. Results show that, for cities in four high-stake regions – the Great Lakes of North America, Southern Europe, Central India, and North China – a virtually unlikely (0.01% probability) UHW projected by single-model ensembles is estimated by our model with probabilities of 23.73%, 4.24%, 1.56%, and 14.76% respectively in 2061–2070 under a high-emission scenario. Our findings suggest that for urban-scale extremes, policymakers and stakeholders will have to plan for larger uncertainties than what a single model predicts if decisions are informed based on urban climate simulations.

scholarly journals Possible mechanisms related to internal dynamics for anomalously high rainfall during August 2020 of Indian Summer Monsoon

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malay Ganai ◽  
Sahadat Sarkar ◽  
Radhika Kanase ◽  
R. Phani Murali Krishna ◽  
P Mukhopadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Central India ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
High Rainfall

Abstract In the present study, an investigation is made to understand the physical mechanism behind the anomalous high rainfall during August 2020 over the Indian subcontinent using both observation and GFS T1534 weather forecast model. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country receives 27% excess rainfall in the month of August 2020. The excess rainfall is mainly contributed by the 5 well marked low pressure systems which formed over Bay of Bengal and moved west-northwestwards across central India up to Western Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The analysis reveals that the observed anomalous rainfall is distributed over central India region extending from coastal Orissa to central part of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and western coast of Gujarat region. It is also found that the August-2020 heavy rainfall is mainly contributed by the synoptic (2-10 days) component of the total rainfall whereas the contribution of the large-scale intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) component (10-90 days) is quite less. Although the present operational Global Forecast System (GFS) T1534 (GFS T1534) is able to predict the anomalous high rainfall with day-1 lead time, it underestimates the magnitude of the synoptic variance. Further, the large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical parameters show anomalous behaviour in terms of strong low level (850 hPa) jet, vertical velocity and associated moisture convergence in the lower level. The GFS T1534 is able to forecast the above large-scale features reasonably well even with day-5 lead time. From energetics analysis, it is found that the mean kinetic energy (MKE) is stronger for August 2020 as compared to climatological value and the strong MKE efficiently transfers the energy to the synoptic scale, and hence the synoptic eddy kinetic energy is higher. Along with that, the ISO scale kinetic energy for August 2020 is less compared to the August climatological value. GFS T1534 model has some fidelity in capturing the energy conversion processes, but it has some difficulty in capturing the magnitude with increased lead time.

scholarly journals Contribution of Monthly and Regional Rainfall to the Strength of Indian Summer Monsoon

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (9) ◽  
pp. 3037-3055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangxing Zheng ◽  
M. M. Ali ◽  
Mark A. Bourassa
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Central India ◽  
Northeast India ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Series ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Regional Rainfall

Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June–September) has both temporal and spatial variability causing floods and droughts in different seasons and locations, leading to a strong or weak monsoon. Here, the authors present the contribution of all-India monthly, seasonal, and regional rainfall to the ISMR, with an emphasis on the strong and weak monsoons. Here, regional rainfall is restricted to the seasonal rainfall over four regions defined by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) primarily for the purpose of forecasting regional rainfall: northwest India (NWI), northeast India (NEI), central India (CI), and south peninsula India (SPIN). In this study, two rainfall datasets provided by IMD are used: 1) all-India monthly and seasonal (June–September) rainfall series for the entire Indian subcontinent as well as seasonal rainfall series for the four homogeneous regions for the period 1901–2013 and 2) the latest daily gridded rainfall data for the period 1951–2014, which is used for assessment at the extent to which the four regions are appropriate for the intended purpose. Rainfall during July–August contributes the most to the total seasonal rainfall, regardless of whether it is a strong or weak monsoon. Although NEI has the maximum area-weighted rainfall, its contribution is the least toward determining a strong or weak monsoon. It is the rainfall in the remaining three regions (NWI, CI, and SPIN) that controls whether an ISMR is strong or weak. Compared to monthly rainfall, regional rainfall dominates the strong or weak rainfall periods.

scholarly journals The Effect of the Thermal Mass of the Building Envelope on Summer Overheating of Dwellings in a Temperate Climate

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4117
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Kuczyński ◽  
Anna Staszczuk ◽  
Piotr Ziembicki ◽  
Anna Paluszak
Keyword(s):  
Building Materials ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Thermal Mass ◽  
Occupant Behavior ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Night Ventilation

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the effectiveness of increasing the thermal capacity of a residential building by using traditional building materials to reduce the risk of its excessive overheating during intense heat waves in a temperate climate. An additional objective is to show that the use of this single passive measure significantly reduces the risk of overheating in daytime rooms, but also, though to a much lesser extent, in bedrooms. Increasing the thermal mass of the room from light to a medium heavy reduced the average maximum daily temperature by 2.2K during the first heat wave and by 2.6K during the other two heat waves. The use of very heavy construction further reduced the average maximum temperature for the heat waves analyzed by 1.4K, 1.2K and 1.7K, respectively, giving a total possible reduction in maximum daily temperatures in the range of 3.6 °C, 3.8 °C and 4.3 °C. A discussion of the influence of occupant behavior on the use of night ventilation and external blinds was carried out, finding a significant effect on the effectiveness of the use of both methods. The results of the study suggest that in temperate European countries, preserving residential construction methods with heavy envelopes and partitions could significantly reduce the risk of overheating in residential buildings over the next few decades, without the need for night ventilation or external blinds, whose effectiveness is highly dependent on individual occupant behavior.

On the factors contributing to heat waves in Europe. A global large ensemble approach with MPAS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Potential Factors

<p>The European summer heat wave of 2003 with record-breaking temperature anomalies was brought into connection with a blocking Omega circulation pattern, soil moisture deficit and high sea surface temperature, especially in the Mediterranean Sea. <sup> </sup>We investigate the potential factors influencing extreme heat waves in Europe with a very large ensemble obtained from multiple global integrations of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The global MPAS runs are performed in approximately 60 km resolution with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice extent from ERA-Interim data as boundary condition initialized on different days.</p><p>The contribution investigates the results obtained from a total of 540 simulations. It concentrates on the regional SST and weather patterns and moisture obtained in simulations contributing to the upper 10% of the resulting probability density function (PDF) of the summer daily mean and maximum temperature. The investigation considers in total eight standard evaluation domains in Europe as defined in the PRUDENCE project.</p>

scholarly journals The history of introduction of the African baobab ( Adansonia digitata , Malvaceae: Bombacoideae) in the Indian subcontinent

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (9) ◽  
pp. 150370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen L. Bell ◽  
Haripriya Rangan ◽  
Christian A. Kull ◽  
Daniel J. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Central India ◽  
Adansonia Digitata ◽  
Multiple Introductions ◽  
Human Interactions ◽  
Time Period ◽  
History Of ◽  
Genetic Clusters ◽  
Southeast India

To investigate the pathways of introduction of the African baobab, Adansonia digitata , to the Indian subcontinent, we examined 10 microsatellite loci in individuals from Africa, India, the Mascarenes and Malaysia, and matched this with historical evidence of human interactions between source and destination regions. Genetic analysis showed broad congruence of African clusters with biogeographic regions except along the Zambezi (Mozambique) and Kilwa (Tanzania), where populations included a mixture of individuals assigned to at least two different clusters. Individuals from West Africa, the Mascarenes, southeast India and Malaysia shared a cluster. Baobabs from western and central India clustered separately from Africa. Genetic diversity was lower in populations from the Indian subcontinent than in African populations, but the former contained private alleles. Phylogenetic analysis showed Indian populations were closest to those from the Mombasa-Dar es Salaam coast. The genetic results provide evidence of multiple introductions of African baobabs to the Indian subcontinent over a longer time period than previously assumed. Individuals belonging to different genetic clusters in Zambezi and Kilwa may reflect the history of trafficking captives from inland areas to supply the slave trade between the fifteenth and nineteenth centuries. Baobabs in the Mascarenes, southeast India and Malaysia indicate introduction from West Africa through eighteenth and nineteenth century European colonial networks.

scholarly journals Compound extremes in a changing climate – a Markov chain approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 375-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrin Sedlmeier ◽  
Sebastian Mieruch ◽  
Gerd Schädler ◽  
Christoph Kottmeier
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Northern Germany ◽  
Russian Region ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract. Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts depends not only on their number of occurrences but also on "how these extremes occur", i.e., the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951–2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for central Europe (1971–2000, 2021–2050) for two types of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which turned out to be likely susceptible to a future change in the succession of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, including a region in southwestern France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. A change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer can be expected for regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.

scholarly journals Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Michiel van Weele ◽  
Peter Uhe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Surface Cooling

Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution would decrease the impacts.

scholarly journals Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Jing Yang ◽  
Robert Bergquist
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Parasite Stage ◽  
Near Future

Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S. mansoni and S. haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.

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