Köppen’s climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 ◽  
pp. 71-89
Author(s):  
C Andrade ◽  
J Contente
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
Dry Climates ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Vegetation Species ◽  
Expected Increase

Projections of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula are investigated using a 7-ensemble mean of regional climate models obtained from EURO-CORDEX. Maps with predicted future scenarios for temperature, precipitation and Köppen-Geiger classification are analyzed for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Iberia. Widespread statistically significant shifts in temperature, precipitation and climate regimes are projected in the 2041-2070 period, with greater shifts occurring under RCP8.5. An overall increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the south-southeast is predicted. Of the two climate types, dry (B) and temperate (C), the dominant one was C in 86% of Iberia for 1961-1990, predicted to decrease by 8.0% by 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (9.5% under RCP8.5). The hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSa) will progressively replace CSb (warm-summer climate) in the northwestern half of Iberia until 2070. This shift, depicted by the SSIM index, is particularly noticeable in Portugal, with the projected establishment of the CSa climate by 2041-2070. The predicted retreat of humid subtropical (Cfa) and temperate oceanic (Cfb) areas in the northeast towards the Pyrenees region is noteworthy, as is the increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates (7.8 and 9%) in the southeast (between Granada and Valencia). Climate types BSh and BWh (hot semi-desert and hot desert, respectively), non-existent in the 1961-1990 period, are projected to represent 2.8% of the territory in 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (5% under RCP8.5). The statistically significant projected changes hint at the disappearance of some vegetation species in certain regions of Iberia, with an expected increase in steppe, bush, grassland and wasteland vegetation cover, typical of dry climates in the southeast.

scholarly journals Projections for the Köppen-Geiger climate classification under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Andrade ◽  
Joana Contente
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Dry Climates ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are investigated by using a seven-ensemble mean of regional climate models (RCMs) attained from EURO-CORDEX. Maps with predicted future scenarios for temperature, precipitation and Köppen-Geiger classification are analyzed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Iberia. Widespread statistically significant shifts in temperature, precipitation and climate regimes are projected between 2041 and 2070, with higher expression under RCP8.5. An overall increase of temperatures and a decrease of precipitation in the south-southeast is predicted. Of the two climate types dry (B) and temperate (C), the dominant one was C in 86% of the Iberian territory for 1961-1990, predicted to decrease by 8.0% towards 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (9.1% under RCP8.5). The hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSa) will progressively replaces CSb (warm-summer) type towards north in the northwestern half of Iberia until 2070. This shift, depicted by the SSIM index, is noticeable in Portugal with a projected establishment of the CSa climate by 2041-2070. A predicted retreat of humid subtropical (Cfa) and temperate oceanic (Cfb) areas in the northeast towards Pyrenees region is noteworthy, alongside an increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates (7.8% and 9%) that progressively sets in the southeast (between Granada and Valencia). Climate types BSh and BWh (hot semi-desert and hot-desert, respectively), non-existent in 1961-1990 period, are projected to represent 2.8% of territory in 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (5% under RCP8.5). The statistically significant projected changes hint at the disappearance of some vegetation species in certain regions of Iberia, with an expected increase of steppe, bush, grassland and wasteland vegetation cover, typical of dry climates in the southeast.</p><p><strong>Funding:</strong> This research was funded by National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project <strong>UIDB/04033/2020.</strong></p>

Fine-Scale Climate Projections for Africa: What Additional Robust Spatial Detail is Provided by a Convection-Permitting Model?  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dave Rowell ◽  
Segolene Berthou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Regional climate projections using ultra-high resolution convection-permitting (CP) models are now increasingly available, with recent endeavours also focussing on vulnerable tropical regions. A number of recent studies have examined a pair of pan-Africa integrations of the Met Office CP model (CP4A), run at 4.4km resolution with 10 years of both a present-day simulation and a circa-2100 projection. However, experience from inter-disciplinary discussions has revealed different perspectives on the value of such experiments, with climate scientists emphasising the importance of an improved representation of convection, whereas applied scientists emphasise the importance of the unprecedented spatial scale of the available climate data. This raises critical questions about the usable spatial scales of such projections. Can CP models really provide robust information about future climate change at finer scales than parameterised regional climate models? We address this question with a focus on projected changes in rainfall, both seasonal means and daily extremes, both of which may be expected to exhibit heterogeneous climate responses in regions of large surface forcing. Although the capacity for statistically significant detail is found to be small in this short projection, detectable sub-25km variability is indeed apparent in regions of high topographic variability. Coastal regions, such as lakes and marine bays are also examined, along with urban boundaries. Furthermore, where no significant fine-scale detail is apparent (spatial heterogeneity is only due to sampling variability), we also examine the extent to which the robustness of climate information (better signal-to-noise ratios) can be enhanced for users by the spatial aggregation of model data.</p>

Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2469-2486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changyong Park ◽  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
Donghyun Lee ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Myoung-Seok Suh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Summer Climate

Regional Climate Model Inter-Comparison for Antarctica within a Data Science Framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Carter ◽  
Amber Leeson ◽  
Andrew Orr ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Melchior van Wessem
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Virtual Lab ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>Understanding the surface climatology of the Antarctic ice sheet is essential if we are to adequately predict its response to future climate change. This includes both primary impacts such as increased ice melting and secondary impacts such as ice shelf collapse events. Given its size, and inhospitable environment, weather stations on Antarctica are sparse. Thus, we rely on regional climate models to 1) develop our understanding of how the climate of Antarctica varies in both time and space and 2) provide data to use as context for remote sensing studies and forcing for dynamical process models. Given that there are a number of different regional climate models available that explicitly simulate Antarctic climate, understanding inter- and intra model variability is important.</p><p>Here, inter- and intra-model variability in Antarctic-wide regional climate model output is assessed for: snowfall; rainfall; snowmelt and near-surface air temperature within a cloud-based virtual lab framework. State-of-the-art regional climate model runs from the Antarctic-CORDEX project using the RACMO, MAR and MetUM models are used, together with the ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses products. Multiple simulations using the same model and domain boundary but run at either different spatial resolutions or with different driving data are used. Traditional analysis techniques are exploited and the question of potential added value from more modern and involved methods such as the use of Gaussian Processes is investigated. The advantages of using a virtual lab in a cloud based environment for increasing transparency and reproducibility, are demonstrated, with a view to ultimately make the code and methods used widely available for other research groups.</p>

scholarly journals Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability over West Africa under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios: Results from CORDEX RCMs

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
Obed M. Ogega ◽  
Benjamin A. Gyampoh ◽  
Malcolm N. Mistry
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Change ◽  
North West ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
South West Africa ◽  
Projected Changes

This study assessed the performance of 24 simulations, from five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), in representing spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation over West Africa, compared to observations. The top five performing RCM simulations were used to assess future precipitation changes over West Africa, under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs), following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The performance evaluation and future change assessment were done using a set of seven ‘descriptors’ of West African precipitation namely the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), the consecutive wet days (CWD), the number of wet days index (R1MM), the number of wet days with moderate and heavy intensity precipitation (R10MM and R30MM, respectively), and annual and June to September daily mean precipitation (ANN and JJAS, respectively). The performance assessment and future change outlook were done for the CORDEX–Africa subdomains of north West Africa (WA-N), south West Africa (WA-S), and a combination of the two subdomains. While the performance of RCM runs was descriptor- and subregion- specific, five model runs emerged as top performers in representing precipitation characteristics over both WA-N and WA-S. The five model runs are CCLM4 forced by ICHEC-EC-EARTH (r12i1p1), RCA4 forced by CCCma-CanESM2 (r1i1p1), RACMO22T forced by MOHC-HadGEM2-ES (r1i1p1), and the ensemble means of simulations made by CCLM4 and RACMO22T. All precipitation descriptors recorded a reduction under the two warming levels, except the SDII which recorded an increase. Unlike the WA-N that showed less frequency and more intense precipitation, the WA-S showed increased frequency and intensity. Given the potential impact that these projected changes may have on West Africa’s socioeconomic activities, adjustments in investment may be required to take advantage of (and enhance system resilience against damage that may result from) the potential changes in precipitation.

scholarly journals Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3275-3291 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ruiz-Ramos ◽  
E. Sánchez ◽  
C. Gallardo ◽  
M. I. Mínguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract. Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

scholarly journals Quantification of the Expected Changes in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation Quantiles under Climate Change in the Iberian Peninsula

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Garijo ◽  
Luis Mediero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The Future

Climate model projections can be used to assess the expected behaviour of extreme precipitations in the future due to climate change. The European part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscalling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) provides precipitation projections for the future under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through regionalised Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs by a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In this work, 12 combinations of GCM and RCM under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) supplied by the EURO-CORDEX are analysed for the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation quantiles for a set of probabilities of non-exceedance are estimated by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and L-moments. Precipitation quantiles expected in the future are compared with the precipitation quantiles in the control period for each climate model. An approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is developed in order to assess the uncertainty from the climate model projections. Expected changes in the future are compared with the sampling uncertainty in the control period. Thus, statistically significant changes are identified. The higher the significance threshold, the fewer cells with significant changes are identified. Consequently, a set of maps are obtained in order to assist the decision-making process in subsequent climate change studies.

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