scholarly journals Onset and Decline Rates of Marine Heatwaves: Global Trends, Seasonal Forecasts and Marine Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire M. Spillman ◽  
Grant A. Smith ◽  
Alistair J. Hobday ◽  
Jason R. Hartog
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Marine Management ◽  
Rapid Responses ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Important Time ◽  
Onset Rate

Changing ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, particularly the increasing severity and frequency of extreme events, are a growing concern for a range of marine sectors. Here we explore the global trends in marine heatwaves (MHWs), specifically onset and decline rates, two metrics which describe how quickly a MHW will emerge or disappear from a location. These rates determine the reaction window—the start of a MHW event to peak MHW temperatures—and the coping window—time from peak temperatures to the end of an event—two important time periods relevant to a marine decision-maker. We show that MHW onset and decline rates are fastest in dynamic ocean regions and that overall, the global trend in onset rate is greater than the global trend in decline rate. We map ocean regions where these rates are changing together with forecast skill from a seasonal dynamical model (ACCESS-S). This analysis highlights areas where the length of the preparation window for impending MHWs is increased by using forecasts, and areas where marine decision-makers should be prepared for rapid responses based on realtime observations as MHWs evolve. In regions such as south Africa and Kerguelen, northwest Atlantic, northwest Pacific, southwest South Atlantic and off Australian east coast where rapid median onset and decline rates are observed, there is also a positive trend in onset and decline rates i.e., MHWs are developing and declining more rapidly. This will be a concern for many decision-makers operating in these regions.

Prediction of August Atlantic Basin Hurricane Activity

10.1175/814.1 ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1044-1060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric S. Blake ◽  
William M. Gray
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Bering Sea

Abstract Although skillful seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin are now a reality, large gaps remain in our understanding of observed variations in the distribution of activity within the hurricane season. The month of August roughly spans the first third of the climatologically most active part of the season, but activity during the month is quite variable. This paper reports on an initial investigation into forecasting year-to-year variability of August tropical cyclone (TC) activity using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. It is shown that 55%–75% of the variance of August TC activity can be hindcast using a combination of 4–5 global predictors chosen from a 12-predictor pool with each of the predictors showing precursor associations with TC activity. The most prominent predictive signal is the equatorial July 200-mb wind off the west coast of South America. When this wind is anomalously strong from the northeast during July, Atlantic TC activity in August is almost always enhanced. Other July conditions associated with active Augusts include a weak subtropical high in the North Atlantic, an enhanced subtropical high in the northwest Pacific, and low pressure in the Bering Sea region. The most important application of the August-only forecast is that predicted net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity in August has a significant relationship with the incidence of U.S. August TC landfall events. Better understanding of August-only TC variability will allow for a more complete perspective of total seasonal variability and, as such, assist in making better seasonal forecasts.

scholarly journals Creating Useful and Usable Weather and Climate Information: Insights from Participatory Scenario Planning in Malawi

2021 ◽  
pp. 77-92
Author(s):  
Dorothy Tembo-Nhlema ◽  
Katharine Vincent ◽  
Rebecka Henriksson
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Early Adopters ◽  
Demonstration Effect ◽  
Initial Investigation ◽  
Usable Information ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Grassroots Level

AbstractFor climate information to be used at the grassroots level, it needs to be understood, collectively interpreted and effectively communicated. Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) is one method of co-producing useful and usable sectoral and livelihood advisories for decision-makers, based on locally downscaled weather (typically seasonal forecasts). The chapter outlines an initial investigation into the history and application of PSP in Malawi, finding that it can generate useful and usable information that is deemed credible, legitimate and salient by its intended users. Its usability is reinforced through the demonstration effect which leads to even sceptical farmers adopting it after they have witnessed proof of its effectiveness from early adopters. In Malawi, the sustainability of PSP is threatened due to limited integration in planning frameworks and reliance on projects, hence need for a mechanism to ensure its regular occurrence and embeddedness in formal governance structures.

Modern World Trend of Sustainable Economy and Formation of the Circular Ecosystem in the Republic of Moldova

Economica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larisa Dodu-Gugea ◽  
◽  
Zorina Siscan ◽  
Liliana Condratchi ◽  
Olesea Fortuna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Round Table ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Ecological Crisis ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Sustainable Economy ◽  
The Republic

Starting from studies conducted in the field, the authors define sustainable economy as a global trend and identify co-creation power of circular ecosystem in the Republic of Moldova. Attention is paid to sustainable economy as based on managing resources in interest of not only contemporary generations, but also the future ones. The implementation of policies related to business interests should be closely linked to sustainable development of natural and socio-cultural ecosystems. The technologies of circular economy directly contribute to sustainable economy. The ecological crisis and the current pandemic situation are leading to a revision of socio-economic values that result in the need to form circular global ecosystem. The round table of 18.12.2020, organized by the authors within ASEM, confirmed that activists, entrepreneurs, academics and political decision makers, being driving forces of sustainable economy, capitalize on this global trend, co-creating the circular ecosystem.

scholarly journals Indicator-Based Sustainability Assessment Tool to Support Coastal and Marine Management

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donalda Karnauskaitė ◽  
Gerald Schernewski ◽  
Josianne G. Støttrup ◽  
Marija Kataržytė
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Coastal Development ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Marine Management ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Integrated Approaches ◽  
User Friendly

The applied Indicator-based Sustainability Assessment Tool (InSAT) serves as a user-friendly computer-aided tool to support coastal and marine management. Focus is on sustainable coastal development, including environmental, social, and economic aspects. We apply the InSAT to assess the changes in sustainability before, during, and after the implementation of management measures. The assessments address three case studies in Lithuania: the construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal in Klaipeda, the renewal of the port of Sventoji, and the opening of a beach in Nida. The application of core and optional indicators highlights the strengths and weaknesses of the management measures. We analyze to what extent, how, and when the InSAT can be applied within a stepwise Systems Approach Framework (SAF) to support sustainable coastal and marine management. Further, we assess how the tool can be applied within other integrated approaches. The application of tailor-made indicators helps to identify potential conflicts and raise discussions about sustainable development between stakeholders and decision-makers and therefore supports the decision-making process. The tool indicates the management measures’ weaknesses, but the assessment results do not indicate what kind of solutions should be undertaken. However, it can still serve to support, guide, and supplement the participation and discussion processes.

How well do seasonal forecasts reproduce European winter storm clustering and its relationship to large-scale climate drivers?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Angus ◽  
Gregor Leckebusch
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Explained Variance ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Insight Into

<div>The inter-annual variability of the European windstorm season is dependent on a number of large-scale climate drivers and conditions, for example the North Atlantic Oscillation. For seasonal forecasts to provide valuable information to decision makers about the potential severity of the winter windstorm season, they must capture this relationship between large-scale climate drivers and seasonal windstorm frequency in advance. Here, we examine the performance of the latest state of the art ECMWF seasonal forecast product (SEAS5) in capturing this climate response. We apply a statistical model previously shown to well reproduce the explained behaviour of European windstorms from large-scale climate drivers (Walz et al. 2018) to SEAS5, and examine the choice of statistically significant drivers. The model applied is a stepwise Poisson regression approach to account for serial clustering within inter-annual variability of windstorms, the resultant of which categorizes each windstorm season as either active, neutral or inactive. In particular, we focus on the European region where the explained variance of the statistical model in observations is highest (Walz et al. 2018), the British Isles. In addition to comparing the performance of the model in SEAS5 and in observations, we examine which relationships are not recreated in the seasonal forecast successfully from a dynamical perspective, to provide further insight into the current ability of seasonal forecasts to represent European windstorm inter-annual variability.</div><div> </div><div>Reference:</div><div>Walz, M. A., Befort, D. J., Kirchner‐Bossi, N. O., Ulbrich, U., & Leckebusch, G. C. (2018). Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers. <em>International Journal of Climatology</em>, <em>38</em>(7), 3044-3057.</div>

scholarly journals Glimpse of interaction between traditional and digital banking instruments

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-107
Author(s):  
Oleg Usherovich Avis ◽  
Vladimir E. Kosarev
Keyword(s):  
Customer Service ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Special Importance ◽  
Successful Operation ◽  
Banking Services ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Banking Systems ◽  
Banking Service ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Bank Employee

The article is focused on studying the global trends in banking systems: development of digital banking, displacement of traditional banking - banking of branches (affiliates). Within the framework of this global trend, a hybrid banking service model is noticed to be forming, where traditional and digital banking systems complement each other. The concepts of traditional and digital banking are given a detailed consideration. The element of traditional banking – a “live” dialogue between a client and a bank employee - is a very important aspect for the efficient customer service and banking system on the whole. The models of the banking system of modern Russia, Germany, Switzerland and other countries of continental Europe are largely homogeneous. The interaction of traditional and digital banking instruments develops according to the general principles. There has been analyzed the research of the German economists and bankers. There has been mentioned the successful operation of banks in Switzerland, Germany and other banks using the banking systems of the continental model for building new cooperatives of banking instruments. A special importance is given to another global trend - the creation of financial and banking ecosystems, which today mean the combination of banking and non-banking services in the interests of developing a client-oriented approach. There has been justified the hypothesis of the inevitability of building a hybrid model of traditional and digital banking, its actual implementation into actively developing financial and banking ecosystems.

scholarly journals An empirical survey on the awareness of construction developers about green buildings in Macedonia

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (Suppl. 3) ◽  
pp. 897-907
Author(s):  
Lihnida Stojanovska-Georgievska ◽  
Ivana Sandeva ◽  
Hristina Spasevska
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Environmental Concern ◽  
Green Building ◽  
Green Buildings ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Empirical Survey ◽  
Structured Groups ◽  
High Level ◽  
Current Stage

Green construction is becoming priority in developing a new scope to the construction itself. It emerges from the inevitable need to raise the environmental concern and to make effort to build sustainable, by balancing between the conservation of the environment and maintaining prosperity in development. Green design does not only make a positive impact on public health and the environment, it also reduces operating costs, enhances building and organizational marketability, increases occupant productivity, and helps create a sustainable community. This survey aims at determining the stage of knowledge and awareness about green buildings among most involved stakeholders. The survey targets basic understanding about green building and reveals the opinion about the advances and possible barriers for regulated construction of green buildings. This survey is conducted using the method of structured questionnaires and is based on the responses of 181 construction developers including designers, architects, civil engineers, technicians, workers in construction industry, investors, as well as legal representatives (decision makers). The overall results show high level of familiarization with the concept of green buildings (more than 75% of the respondents), and even higher percentage in expressing support of the idea for green buildings (less than 6% gave negative answers). The results obtained from three structured groups of questions (awareness, advantages & barriers, and possible areas for intervention) are discussed in comprehensive manner, by additional comparison with the results for global trends, in order to analyze thoroughly the current stage of awareness about green buildings in Macedonia.

scholarly journals Trends in the global organoid technology and industry: from organogenesis in a dish to the commercialization of organoids

Organoid ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. e11
Author(s):  
Hanbyeol Lee ◽  
Jeong Suk Im ◽  
Da Bin Choi ◽  
Dong-Hun Woo
Keyword(s):  
Animal Models ◽  
Drug Development ◽  
Disease Modeling ◽  
Drug Evaluation ◽  
Clinical Stage ◽  
Testing Methods ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Animal Data ◽  
The World

Animal models have been standard methods for non-clinical research in drug development for decades. However, many drugs that have shown satisfactory results in non-clinical studies have failed in the clinical stage, presumably because animal data are not fully convertible to human data. Human organoid technology has recently been considered as an alternative to existing non-clinical testing methods, and it could potentially serve a role as a bridge from non-clinical to clinical trials, compensating for the current limitations arising from non-clinical animal models. For this reason, organoid technology is being utilized in various fields of research including academic studies, disease modeling, drug screening, biobanks, and regenerative medicine. In addition, as organoid technology progressively develops, it has been combined with bioengineering to develop applications from manufacturing to drug evaluation platforms, which is leading to a demand for commercialization of organoids for researchers. In accordance with this global trend, the organoid industry continues to grow throughout the world, and organoid research and the market for organoids have been boosted by the demand for efficient and rapid drug development in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. In this review, we discuss recent global trends in organoid research, based on tissue types and applications, as well as the organoid market and its prospects.

Global Trends of Payment Systems and the Next-Generation RTGS Project in Japan

2011 ◽  
pp. 109-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaaki Nakajima
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Systems ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Integrated Systems ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Payment Systems ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Bank Of Japan

This chapter investigates the evolutionary process of the payment system against the background of structural changes. At the early stage, most payment systems were Designated-Time Net Settlement (DTNS) systems. Then, Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems were introduced, which had the merit of reducing settlement risks. This first trend was followed by the deployment of Hybrid systems and Integrated systems. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is proceeding with the Next-Generation RTGS (RTGS-XG) project. This project is regarded as a typical enhancement of payment systems following the global trend. The features and benefits of the RTGS-XG are closely analyzed.

Who Used and Benefited from the El Niño Forecasts?

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Changnon
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Great Confidence

The long-range seasonal climate forecasts based on El Niño 97-98 conditions and issued from June through August 1997 for the fall, winter, and early spring conditions across the United States were accurate for many parts of the nation (see chapter 2). An important question concerns whether decision makers in weather-sensitive public and private organizations used these El Niño -derived seasonal forecasts. Most seasonal forecasters viewed with great confidence the predictions of a strong El Niño and associated precipitation, temperature, and storm anomalies expected across the United States. From their perspective, it was an opportune time to use and, presumably, to benefit from the forecasts. Our assessment of a large group of potential users of the seasonal forecasts sought to identify who used and did not use the forecasts, the reasons for their use or non use, and the applications and potential value of the forecasts derived from their use. Sector differences were assessed by sampling decision makers in agribusiness, water resources, utilities, and other sectors. Results of such use and non use investigations will help develop better, more effective strategies for disseminating climate forecasts (Pfaff et al, 1999). Another objective of this study was to understand the perceptions decision makers had of seasonal forecasts and how the successful predictions based on El Niño 97-98 may have modified those perceptions. Figure 5-1 presents a typical humorous media view of the forecasts. A survey of individuals was conducted to gather the desired information about how the seasonal forecasts based on El Niño 97-98 were obtained, evaluated, and incorporated into decisions. The study was designed to focus on decision makers in weather-sensitive positions and to employ sampling techniques tested and developed in prior surveys. These previous studies had developed, tested, and used questionnaires as the tool by which to gather information about the use of climate information by weather-sensitive users in water resources, agribusiness, and utilities (Changnon, 1982, 1991, 1992; Changnon and Changnon, 1990; Changnon etal, 1988, 1995; Sonka etal, 1992).

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