scholarly journals Analysis of the Positive Arctic Oscillation Index Event and Its Influence in the Winter and Spring of 2019/2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Zheng Sheng ◽  
Yantong Ma ◽  
Yang He ◽  
Xinjie Zuo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Development Mode ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
Arctic Oscillation Index ◽  
Climate Anomalies

There were continuous positive Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) and large-scale weather and climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter and spring of 2019/2020, and the relationship between these anomalies is an important issue for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability. This study shows that an AOI event with splitting characteristics occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and that there was a gap between the periods in event, which has not been observed in any of the 12 previous positive AOI events. The 3 stages of upward propagating planetary wave (UPPW) variation caused the gap between the periods. First, in early November, the westerly flow from the troposphere to the stratosphere weakened, resulting in persistent weak UPPWs that allowed a strong polar vortex to form. Then, the two strong UPPWs in January and early February caused the original westerlies to decelerate and induced warming in the lower stratosphere. However, the UPPWs caused only moderate changes in the geopotential height and temperature due to the strong polar vortex that had formed in the previous stage. This moderate AOI decline resulted in the conditions that divided the positive event into two periods. Finally, the low-level westerlies became stronger and strengthened the UPPWs into the stable stratosphere, which ended the second positive AOI period in late March. The role of zonal circulation anomalies (ZCA) in the upper stratosphere as metrics of and intermediates in UPPW-AO interactions is revealed in this study. The typical ZCA development mode was identified by statistical analysis and a composite treatment based on eight historical positive AOI events. In this mode, when strong UPPWs occur and lead to the consequent propagation of the ZCA from the stratosphere to the troposphere, the geopotential height field in the lower troposphere changes away from a typical AO mode; eventually, the AOI becomes abnormal. The temperature anomaly and ZCA produced in the two positive AOI periods during the winter and spring of 2019/2020 led to increasing precipitation in the eastern polar region, northern Asia, and areas along 60°N latitude.

scholarly journals Impacts of regional climate and teleconnection on hydrological change in the Bosten Lake Basin, arid region of northwestern China

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huaijun Wang ◽  
Yingping Pan ◽  
Yaning Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Bosten Lake

Abstract This investigation examined effects of climate change, measured as annual, seasonal, and monthly air temperature and precipitation from 1958 to 2010, on water resources (i.e., runoff) in the Bosten Lake Basin. Additionally, teleconnections of hydrological changes to large-scale circulation indices including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Tibetan High (XZH), westerly circulation index (WI), and northern hemisphere polar vortex area index (VPA) were analyzed in our study. The results showed the following. (1) Annual and seasonal air temperature increased significantly in the Bosten Lake Basin. Precipitation exhibited an increasing trend, while the significance was less than that of temperature. Abrupt changes were observed in 1996 in mountain temperature and in 1985 in plain temperature. (2) Runoff varied in three stages, decreasing before 1986, increasing from 1987 to 2003, and decreasing after 2003. (3) Precipitation and air temperature have significant impacts on runoff. The hydrological processes in the Bosten Lake Basin were (statistically) significantly affected by the northern hemisphere polar vortex area index (VPA) and the Tibetan High (XZH). The results of this study are good indicators of local climate change, which can enhance human mitigation of climate warming in the Bosten Lake Basin.

scholarly journals Evidence for an earlier greenhouse cooling effect in the stratosphere before 1980 over the Northern Hemisphere

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 7705-7720 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. Zerefos ◽  
K. Tourpali ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
K. Eleftheratos ◽  
C. Repapis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Before And After

Abstract. This study provides a new look at the observed and calculated long-term temperature changes from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere since 1958 over the Northern Hemisphere. The data sets include the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the Free University of Berlin (FU-Berlin) and the RICH radiosonde data sets as well as historical simulations with the CESM1-WACCM global model participating in CMIP5. The analysis is mainly based on monthly layer mean temperatures derived from geopotential height thicknesses in order to take advantage of the use of the independent FU-Berlin stratospheric data set of geopotential height data since 1957. This approach was followed to extend the records for the investigation of the stratospheric temperature trends to the earliest possible time. After removing the natural variability with an autoregressive multiple regression model our analysis shows that the period 1958–2011 can be divided into two distinct sub-periods of long-term temperature variability and trends: before and after 1980. By calculating trends for the summer time to reduce interannual variability, the two periods are as follows. From 1958 until 1979, a non-significant trend (0.06 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for NCEP) and slightly cooling trends (−0.12 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for RICH) are found in the lower troposphere. The second period from 1980 to the end of the records shows significant warming (0.25 ± 0.05 °C decade−1 for both NCEP and RICH). Above the tropopause a significant cooling trend is clearly seen in the lower stratosphere both in the pre-1980 period (−0.58 ± 0.17 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.30 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.48 ± 0.20 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin) and the post-1980 period (−0.79 ± 0.18 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.66 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.82 ± 0.19 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin). The cooling in the lower stratosphere persists throughout the year from the tropics up to 60° N. At polar latitudes competing dynamical and radiative processes reduce the statistical significance of these trends. Model results are in line with reanalysis and the observations, indicating a persistent cooling (−0.33 °C decade−1) in the lower stratosphere during summer before and after 1980; a feature that is also seen throughout the year. However, the lower stratosphere CESM1-WACCM modelled trends are generally lower than reanalysis and the observations. The contrasting effects of ozone depletion at polar latitudes in winter/spring and the anticipated strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation from man-made global warming at polar latitudes are discussed. Our results provide additional evidence for an early greenhouse cooling signal in the lower stratosphere before 1980, which appears well in advance relative to the tropospheric greenhouse warming signal. The suitability of early warning signals in the stratosphere relative to the troposphere is supported by the fact that the stratosphere is less sensitive to changes due to cloudiness, humidity and man-made aerosols. Our analysis also indicates that the relative contribution of the lower stratosphere versus the upper troposphere low-frequency variability is important for understanding the added value of the long-term tropopause variability related to human-induced global warming.

scholarly journals TransCom N<sub>2</sub>O model inter-comparison – Part 1: Assessing the influence of transport and surface fluxes on tropospheric N<sub>2</sub>O variability

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 2307-2362 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. Thompson ◽  
P. K. Patra ◽  
K. Ishijima ◽  
E. Saikawa ◽  
M. Corazza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Vertical Gradient ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
Mixing Ratios

Abstract. We present a comparison of chemistry-transport models (TransCom-N2O) to examine the importance of atmospheric transport and surface fluxes on the variability of N2O mixing ratios in the troposphere. Six different models and two model variants participated in the inter-comparison and simulations were made for the period 2006 to 2009. In addition to N2O, simulations of CFC-12 and SF6 were made by a subset of four of the models to provide information on the models proficiency in stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and meridional transport, respectively. The same prior emissions were used by all models to restrict differences among models to transport and chemistry alone. Four different N2O flux scenarios totalling between 14 and 17 Tg N yr−1 (for 2005) globally were also compared. The modelled N2O mixing ratios were assessed against observations from in-situ stations, discrete air sampling networks, and aircraft. All models adequately captured the large-scale patterns of N2O and the vertical gradient from the troposphere to the stratosphere and most models also adequately captured the N2O tropospheric growth rate. However, all models underestimated the inter-hemispheric N2O gradient by at least 0.33 ppb (equivalent to 1.5 Tg N), which, even after accounting for an overestimate of emissions in the Southern Ocean of circa 1.0 Tg N, points to a likely underestimate of the Northern Hemisphere source by up to 0.5 Tg N and/or an overestimate of STE in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparison with aircraft data reveal that the models overestimate the amplitude of the N2O seasonal cycle at Hawaii (21° N, 158° W) below circa 6000 m, suggesting an overestimate of the importance of stratosphere to troposphere transport in the lower troposphere at this latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, most of the models that provided CFC-12 simulations captured the phase of the CFC-12, seasonal cycle, indicating a reasonable representation of the timing of STE. However, for N2O all models simulated a too early minimum by 2 to 3 months owing to errors in the seasonal cycle in the prior soil emissions, which is still not adequately represented by terrestrial biosphere models. In the Southern Hemisphere, most models failed to capture the N2O and CFC-12 seasonality at Cape Grim, Tasmania, and all failed at the South Pole, whereas for SF6, all models could capture the seasonality at all sites, suggesting that there are large errors in modeled vertical transport in high southern latitudes.

High vs. low latitude influence on seasonal stratospheric pathways in the atmospheric model ICON

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Köhler ◽  
Dörthe Handorf ◽  
Ralf Jaiser ◽  
Klaus Dethloff
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

&lt;p&gt;Stratospheric pathways play an important role in connecting distant anomaly patterns to each other on seasonal timescales. As long-lived stratospheric extreme events can influence the large-scale tropospheric circulation on timescales of multiple weeks, stratospheric pathways have been identified as one of the main potential sources for subseasonal to seasonal predictability in mid-latitudes. These pathways have been shown to connect Arctic anomalies to lower latitudes and vice versa. However, there is an ongoing discussion on how strong these stratospheric pathways are and how they exactly work.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this context, we investigate two strongly discussed stratospheric pathways by analysing a suite of seasonal experiments with the atmospheric model ICON: On the one hand, the effect of El Ni&amp;#241;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus the circulation in mid and high latitudes in winter. And on the other hand, the effect of a rapidly changing Arctic on lower latitudes via the stratosphere. The former effect is simulated realistically by ICON, and the results from the ensemble simulations suggest that ENSO has an effect on the large-scale Northern Hemisphere winter circulation. The ICON experiments and the reanalysis exhibit a weakened stratospheric vortex in warm ENSO years. Furthermore, in particular in winter, warm ENSO events favour the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, whereas cold events favour the positive phase. The ICON simulations also suggest a significant effect of ENSO on the Atlantic-European sector in late winter. Unlike the effect of ENSO, ICON simulations and the reanalysis do not agree on the stratospheric pathway for Arctic-midlatitude linkages. Whereas the reanalysis exhibits a weakening of the stratospheric vortex in midwinter and a connected tropospheric negative Arctic Oscillation circulation response to amplified Arctic warming, this is not the case in the ICON simulations. Implications and potential reasons for this discrepancy are further analysed and discussed in this work. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Arctic Oscillation impact on thermal regime in the Eastern part of the Baltic region

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
Индре Гечайте ◽  
Indre Gecaite ◽  
Александр Погорельцев ◽  
Aleksandr Pogoreltsev ◽  
Александр Угрюмов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Baltic Region ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
The Baltic

The paper presents statistical estimations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) impact on air temperature regime in the eastern part of the Baltic region. The region is characterized by high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability. It is important to note that in the region of global warming extremely low winter temperatures can be observed on the European territory of Russia. AO is one of the large-scale global patterns of atmospheric circulation closely associated with weather variability in northern Europe. AО anomalies occur in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) and only then are transferred to tropospheric lower layers. The anomalies can persist over a long period of time (up to two months); so they can serve as precursors in long-range weather forecasts. In turn, changes in stratospheric polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warmings can be related to geomagnetic activity. Perhaps geomagnetic activity influences the meridional temperature gradient and then changes the structure of the stratospheric zonal wind. These changes have an effect on the tropospheric circulation. The stratosphere–troposphere coupling takes place during winter months. Therefore, the paper deals with extremely cold winter anomalies in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region. At the same time, we examine atmospheric circulation peculiarities associated with AO phase change. We analyze data for 1951–2014.

scholarly journals Hemispheric ozone variability indices derived from satellite observations and as diagnostics for coupled chemistry-climate models

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 5671-5709
Author(s):  
T. Erbertseder ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
M. Bittner ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
V. Grewe
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
Wave Number

Abstract. Dynamics and chemistry of the lower and middle stratosphere are characterized by manifold processes on different scales in time and space. The total column density of ozone, measured by numerous instruments, can be used to trace the resulting variability. In particular, satellite-borne spectrometers allow global observation of the total ozone distribution with proven accuracy and high temporal and spatial resolution. In order to analyse the zonal and hemispherical ozone variability a spectral statistical Harmonic Analysis is applied to multi-year total ozone observations from the Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS). As diagnostic variables we introduce the hemispheric ozone variability indices one and two. They are defined as the hemispheric means of the amplitudes of the zonal waves number one and two, respectively, as traced by the total ozone field. In order to demonstrate the capability of the diagnostic for intercomparison studies we apply the hemispheric ozone variability indices to evaluate total ozone fields of the coupled chemistry-climate model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (hereafter: E39/C) against satellite observations. Results of a multi-year model simulation representing ''2000" climate conditions with an updated version of E39/C and corresponding total ozone data of TOMS from 1996 to 2004 (Version 8.0) are used. It is quantified to what extent E39/C is able to reproduce the zonal and hemispherical large scale total ozone variations. The different representations of the hemispheric ozone variability indices are discussed. Summarizing the main differences of model and reference observations, we show that both indices, one and two, in E39/C are preferably too high in the Northern Hemisphere and preferably too low in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, where the coincidence is generally better, E39/C produces a too strong planetary wave one activity in winter and spring as well as a too high interannual variability. For the Southern Hemisphere we conclude that model and observations differ significantly during the ozone hole season. In October and November amplitudes of wave number one and two are underestimated. This explains that E39/C exhibits a too stable polar vortex and a too low interannual variability of the ozone hole. Further, a strong negative bias of wave number one amplitudes in the tropics and subtropics from October to December is identified, which may also contribute to the zonal-symmetric polar vortex. The lack of wave two variability in October and November leads to weak vortex elongation and eventually a too late final warming. Contrary, too high wave number two amplitudes in July and August indicate why the polar vortex is formed too late in season by E39/C. In general, the hemispheric ozone variability indices can be regarded as a simple and robust approach to quantify differences in total ozone variability on a monthly mean basis. Therefore, the diagnostic represents a core diagnostic for model intercomparisons within the CCM Validation Activity for WCRP's (World Climate Research Programme) SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) regarding stratospheric dynamics.

scholarly journals The Climatology and Characteristics of Rossby Wave Packets Using a Feature-Based Tracking Technique

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (10) ◽  
pp. 3528-3548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew B. Souders ◽  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Edmund K. M. Chang
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Feature Based ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

Abstract This paper describes an objective, track-based climatology of Rossby wave packets (RWPs). NCEP–NCAR reanalysis wind and geopotential height data at 300 hPa every 6 h were spectrally filtered using a Hilbert transform technique under the assumption that RWPs propagate along a waveguide defined by the 14-day running average of the 300-hPa wind. Track data and feature-based descriptive statistics, including area, average intensity, intensity volume (intensity multiplied by area), intensity-weighted centroid position, and velocity, were gathered to describe the interannual, annual, seasonal, and regime-based climatology of RWPs. RWPs have a more pronounced seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH). RWPs are nearly nonexistent in the summer months (June–August; JJA) in the NH, while there is nearly continuous RWP activity downstream of South Africa during austral summer (December–February; DJF). Interannual variability in RWP frequency and intensity in the Northern Hemisphere is found to be strongly connected with the large-scale flow regimes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Enhanced RWP activity is also found to coherently propagate from the Pacific into the Atlantic on average when the Arctic Oscillation switches from a positive to a negative phase. No significant long-term (~30 yr) trend in RWP frequency, activity, or amplitude is found.

scholarly journals Arctic Oscillation impact on thermal regime of the Baltic region Eastern part

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Индре Гечайте ◽  
Indre Gecaite ◽  
Александр Погорельцев ◽  
Aleksandr Pogoreltsev ◽  
Александр Угрюмов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Geomagnetic Activity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Baltic Region ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The Baltic

Statistical estimations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) impact on air temperature regime in the Eastern part of Baltic region are presented. The region is characterized by high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variabilities. It is important to note that in the region of global warming extremely low winter temperatures can be observed on the European territory of Russia. AO is one of large-scale global structures of atmospheric circulation closely associated with weather variability in Northern Europe. AО anomalies occur in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) and only then transferred to tropospheric lower layers. The anomalies can be preserved during long period up to two months, so they can be predictors in long-range weather forecast. In turn, changes in stratospheric polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warmings can be related to the geomagnetic activity. Perhaps, the geomagnetic activity influences the meridional temperature gradient and then changes in the structure of the stratospheric zonal wind. In turn, the changes have an impact on the tropospheric circulation. The stratosphere–troposphere connection occurs during winter months. Therefore, the paper presents the analysis of extremely cold winter anomalies in the Eastern part of Baltic Sea region. At the same time, we considered atmospheric circulation peculiarities related to AO phase change. The analyzable time interval covers 1951–2014.

scholarly journals TransCom N<sub>2</sub>O model inter-comparison – Part 1: Assessing the influence of transport and surface fluxes on tropospheric N<sub>2</sub>O variability

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 4349-4368 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. L. Thompson ◽  
P. K. Patra ◽  
K. Ishijima ◽  
E. Saikawa ◽  
M. Corazza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Vertical Gradient ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Biosphere Model

Abstract. We present a comparison of chemistry-transport models (TransCom-N2O) to examine the importance of atmospheric transport and surface fluxes on the variability of N2O mixing ratios in the troposphere. Six different models and two model variants participated in the inter-comparison and simulations were made for the period 2006 to 2009. In addition to N2O, simulations of CFC-12 and SF6 were made by a subset of four of the models to provide information on the models' proficiency in stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) and meridional transport, respectively. The same prior emissions were used by all models to restrict differences among models to transport and chemistry alone. Four different N2O flux scenarios totalling between 14 and 17 TgN yr−1 (for 2005) globally were also compared. The modelled N2O mixing ratios were assessed against observations from in situ stations, discrete air sampling networks and aircraft. All models adequately captured the large-scale patterns of N2O and the vertical gradient from the troposphere to the stratosphere and most models also adequately captured the N2O tropospheric growth rate. However, all models underestimated the inter-hemispheric N2O gradient by at least 0.33 parts per billion (ppb), equivalent to 1.5 TgN, which, even after accounting for an overestimate of emissions in the Southern Ocean of circa 1.0 TgN, points to a likely underestimate of the Northern Hemisphere source by up to 0.5 TgN and/or an overestimate of STE in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparison with aircraft data reveal that the models overestimate the amplitude of the N2O seasonal cycle at Hawaii (21° N, 158° W) below circa 6000 m, suggesting an overestimate of the importance of stratosphere to troposphere transport in the lower troposphere at this latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, most of the models that provided CFC-12 simulations captured the phase of the CFC-12, seasonal cycle, indicating a reasonable representation of the timing of STE. However, for N2O all models simulated a too early minimum by 2 to 3 months owing to errors in the seasonal cycle in the prior soil emissions, which was not adequately represented by the terrestrial biosphere model. In the Southern Hemisphere, most models failed to capture the N2O and CFC-12 seasonality at Cape Grim, Tasmania, and all failed at the South Pole, whereas for SF6, all models could capture the seasonality at all sites, suggesting that there are large errors in modelled vertical transport in high southern latitudes.

scholarly journals Comparison of large-scale dynamical variability in the extratropical stratosphere among the JRA-55 family data sets: impacts of assimilation of observational data in JRA-55 reanalysis data

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (18) ◽  
pp. 11193-11207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Taguchi
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Family Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Abstract. This study compares large-scale dynamical variability in the extratropical stratosphere, such as major stratospheric sudden warmings (MSSWs), among the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) family data sets. The JRA-55 family consists of three products: a standard product (STDD) of the JRA-55 reanalysis data and two sub-products of JRA-55C (CONV) and JRA-55AMIP (AMIP). CONV assimilates only conventional surface and upper-air observations without assimilation of satellite observations, whereas AMIP runs the same numerical weather prediction model without assimilation of observational data. A comparison of the occurrence of MSSWs in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter shows that, compared to STDD, CONV delays several MSSWs by 1 to 4 days and also misses a few MSSWs. CONV also misses the Southern Hemisphere (SH) MSSW in September 2002. AMIP shows significantly fewer MSSWs in Northern Hemisphere winter and especially lacks MSSWs of the high aspect ratio of the polar vortex in which the vortex is highly stretched or split. A further examination of daily geopotential height differences between STDD and CONV reveals occasional peaks in both hemispheres that are separated from MSSWs. The delayed and missed MSSW cases have smaller height differences in magnitude than such peaks. The height differences for those MSSWs include large contributions from the zonal component, which reflects underestimations in the weakening of the zonal mean polar night jet in CONV. We also explore strong planetary wave forcings and associated polar vortex weakenings for STDD and AMIP. We find a lower frequency of strong wave forcings and weaker vortex responses to such wave forcings in AMIP, consistent with the lower MSSW frequency.

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