scholarly journals Evidence for an earlier greenhouse cooling effect in the stratosphere before 1980 over the Northern Hemisphere

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 7705-7720 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. Zerefos ◽  
K. Tourpali ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
K. Eleftheratos ◽  
C. Repapis ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study provides a new look at the observed and calculated long-term temperature changes from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere since 1958 over the Northern Hemisphere. The data sets include the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the Free University of Berlin (FU-Berlin) and the RICH radiosonde data sets as well as historical simulations with the CESM1-WACCM global model participating in CMIP5. The analysis is mainly based on monthly layer mean temperatures derived from geopotential height thicknesses in order to take advantage of the use of the independent FU-Berlin stratospheric data set of geopotential height data since 1957. This approach was followed to extend the records for the investigation of the stratospheric temperature trends to the earliest possible time. After removing the natural variability with an autoregressive multiple regression model our analysis shows that the period 1958–2011 can be divided into two distinct sub-periods of long-term temperature variability and trends: before and after 1980. By calculating trends for the summer time to reduce interannual variability, the two periods are as follows. From 1958 until 1979, a non-significant trend (0.06 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for NCEP) and slightly cooling trends (−0.12 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for RICH) are found in the lower troposphere. The second period from 1980 to the end of the records shows significant warming (0.25 ± 0.05 °C decade−1 for both NCEP and RICH). Above the tropopause a significant cooling trend is clearly seen in the lower stratosphere both in the pre-1980 period (−0.58 ± 0.17 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.30 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.48 ± 0.20 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin) and the post-1980 period (−0.79 ± 0.18 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.66 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.82 ± 0.19 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin). The cooling in the lower stratosphere persists throughout the year from the tropics up to 60° N. At polar latitudes competing dynamical and radiative processes reduce the statistical significance of these trends. Model results are in line with reanalysis and the observations, indicating a persistent cooling (−0.33 °C decade−1) in the lower stratosphere during summer before and after 1980; a feature that is also seen throughout the year. However, the lower stratosphere CESM1-WACCM modelled trends are generally lower than reanalysis and the observations. The contrasting effects of ozone depletion at polar latitudes in winter/spring and the anticipated strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation from man-made global warming at polar latitudes are discussed. Our results provide additional evidence for an early greenhouse cooling signal in the lower stratosphere before 1980, which appears well in advance relative to the tropospheric greenhouse warming signal. The suitability of early warning signals in the stratosphere relative to the troposphere is supported by the fact that the stratosphere is less sensitive to changes due to cloudiness, humidity and man-made aerosols. Our analysis also indicates that the relative contribution of the lower stratosphere versus the upper troposphere low-frequency variability is important for understanding the added value of the long-term tropopause variability related to human-induced global warming.

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1073-1112
Author(s):  
C. S. Zerefos ◽  
K. Tourpali ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
K. Eleftheratos ◽  
C. Repapis ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study provides a new look at the observed and calculated long-term temperature changes since 1958 for the region extending from the lower troposphere up to the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis is mainly based on monthly layer mean temperatures derived from geopotential height thicknesses between specific pressure levels. Layer mean temperatures from thickness improve homogeneity in both space and time and reduce uncertainties in the trend analysis. Datasets used include the NCEP/NCAR I reanalysis, the Free University of Berlin (FU-Berlin) and the RICH radiosonde datasets as well as historical simulations with the CESM1-WACCM global model participating in CMIP5. After removing the natural variability with an autoregressive multiple regression model our analysis shows that the time interval of our study 1958–2011 can be divided in two distinct sub-periods of long term temperature variability and trends; before and after 1980s. By calculating trends for the summer time to reduce interannual variability, the two periods are as follows. From 1958 until 1979, non-significant trends or slight cooling trends prevail in the lower troposphere (0.06 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for NCEP and −0.12 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for RICH). The second period from 1980 to the end of the records shows significant warming trends (0.25 ± 0.05 °C decade−1 for both NCEP and RICH). Above the tropopause a persistent cooling trend is clearly seen in the lower stratosphere both in the pre-1980s period (−0.58 ± 0.17 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.30 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.48 ± 0.20 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin) and the post-1980s period (−0.79 ± 0.18 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.66 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.82 ± 0.19 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin). The cooling in the lower stratosphere is a persistent feature from the tropics up to 60 north for all months. At polar latitudes competing dynamical and radiative processes are reducing the statistical significance of these trends. Model results are in line with re-analysis and the observations, indicating a persistent cooling in the lower stratosphere during summer before and after the 1980s by −0.33 °C decade−1; a feature that is also seen throughout the year. However, the lower stratosphere modelled trends are generally lower than re-analysis and the observations. The contrasting effects of ozone depletion at polar latitudes in winter/spring and the anticipated strengthening of the Brewer Dobson circulation from man-made global warming at polar latitudes are discussed. Our results provide additional evidence for an early greenhouse cooling signal in the lower stratosphere before the 1980s, which it appears well in advance relative to the tropospheric greenhouse warming signal. Hence it may be postulated that the stratosphere could have provided an early warning of man-made climate change. The suitability for early warning signals in the stratosphere relative to the troposphere is supported by the fact that the stratosphere is less sensitive to changes due to cloudiness, humidity and man-made aerosols. Our analysis also indicates that the relative contribution of the lower stratosphere vs. the upper troposphere low frequency variability is important for understanding the added value of the long term tropopause variability related to human induced global warming.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin H. Trauth ◽  
Asfawossen Asrat ◽  
Nadine Berner ◽  
Faysal Bibi ◽  
Verena Foerster ◽  
...  

<p>The hypothesis of a connection between the onset (or intensification) of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG), the stepwise increase in African aridity (and climate variability) and an important mammalian (including hominin) species turnover is a textbook example of the initiation of a scientific idea and its propagation in science. It is, however, also an example of the persistent popularity of a hypothesis despite mounting evidence against it. The first part of our work analyzes of the history of the scientific idea by seeking its roots, including coincidental meetings and exchanges between of scientists, at project meetings, conferences and workshops. The consequences of this idea are examined and its influence on subsequent scientific investigations both before and after it has been falsified. In the second part of our investigation, we examine why the idea that the high latitudes have a major control on the climate of the low latitudes and thus early human evolution persists. For this purpose, an attempt is made to understand the original interpretation of the data, with special consideration of the composition of the scientific team and their scientific backgrounds and persuasions. Some of the key records in support of the hypothesis of a step-wise transition will be statistically re-analyzed by fitting change-point models to the time series to determine the midpoint and duration of the transition – in case such a transition is found in the data. A critical review of key publications in support of such a connection and a statistical re-analysis of key data sets leads to three conclusions: (1) Northern Hemisphere Glaciation is a gradual process between ~3.5–2.5 Ma, not an abrupt onset, either at ~2.5 Ma, nor at ~2.8 Ma, or any other time in the Late Cenozoic Era, (2) the trend towards greater aridity in Africa during this period was also gradual, not stepwise in the sense of a consistent transition of a duration of ≤0.2 Ma, and (3) accordingly, a step-wise change in environmental conditions cannot be used to explain an important mammalian (including hominin) species turnover.</p>


2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (20) ◽  
pp. 5336-5352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven C. Sherwood ◽  
Cathryn L. Meyer ◽  
Robert J. Allen ◽  
Holly A. Titchner

Abstract Results are presented from a new homogenization of data since 1959 from 527 radiosonde stations. This effort differs from previous ones by employing an approach specifically designed to minimize systematic errors in adjustment, by including wind shear as well as temperature, by seasonally resolving adjustments, and by using neither satellite information nor station metadata. Relatively few artifacts were detected in wind shear, and associated adjustments were indistinguishable from random adjustments. Temperature artifacts were detected most often in the late 1980s–early 1990s. Uncertainty was characterized from variations within an ensemble of homogenizations and used to test goodness of fit with satellite data using reduced chi squared. The meridional variations of zonally aggregated temperature trend since 1979 moved significantly closer to those of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) after data adjustment. Adjusted data from 5°S to 20°N continue to show relatively weak warming, but the error is quite large, and the trends are inconsistent with those at other latitudes. Overall, the adjusted trends are close to those of MSU for the temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT). For channel 2, they are consistent with two analyses (Remote Sensing Systems, p = 0.54, and the University of Maryland, p = 0.32) showing the strongest warming but not with the University of Alabama dataset (p = 0.0001). The troposphere warms at least as strongly as the surface, with local warming maxima at 300 hPa in the tropics and in the boundary layer of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (ENH). Tropospheric warming since 1959 is almost hemispherically symmetric, but since 1979 it is significantly stronger in ENH and weaker in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (ESH). ESH trends are relatively uncertain because of poor sampling. Stratospheric cooling also remains stronger than indicated by MSU and likely excessive. While this effort appears not to have detected all artifacts, trends appear to be systematically improved. Stronger warming is shown in the Northern Hemisphere where sampling is best. Several suggestions are made for future attempts. These results support the hypothesis that trends in wind data are relatively uncorrupted by artifacts compared to temperature, and should be exploited in future homogenization efforts.


2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-137

In this work the covariability of sea surface and lower troposphere temperatures (SST-AT) is investigated for winter (DJFM) and summer (JJAS), over the whole northern hemisphere, by utilizing monthly anomalies in grid boxes for a 22-year period. Air temperature variations in the lower troposphere are examined in terms of 1000-500 hPa thickness. At first, factor analysis (FA) is applied on both sets of data in order to reduce their dimensionality and to group objectively grid points with a similar long term temperature variability. Also, FA revealed numerous teleconnections in both fields, most important being those governed by PNA in the Pacific Ocean and NAO in the Atlantic Ocean. Then, by using the FA results as a guide, correlation coefficients between the mean temperature time series of the subareas defined by FA in the two fields are estimated. The highest values, up to r=0.70, were found for subareas located one over/under the other. Finally, by introducing time lags, an attempt of forecasting either SST form AT or AT from SST is made. Although in some cases the coefficients appear increasing, test showed that the increase is not statistically significant. In any case, it appears that, on monthly time scale, it is the AT that controls SST and not the vice versa.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Tegtmeier ◽  
M. I. Hegglin ◽  
J. Anderson ◽  
B. Funke ◽  
J. Gille ◽  
...  

Abstract. A quality assessment of the CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), HF, and SF6 products from limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed intercomparison. The climatologies in the form of monthly zonal mean time series are obtained from HALOE, MIPAS, ACE-FTS, and HIRDLS within the time period 1991–2010. The intercomparisons focus on the mean biases of the monthly and annual zonal mean fields and aim to identify their vertical, latitudinal and temporal structure. The CFC evaluations (based on MIPAS, ACE-FTS and HIRDLS) reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 mean state, as given by satellite data sets, is smallest in the tropics and mid-latitudes at altitudes below 50 and 20 hPa, respectively, with a 1σ multi-instrument spread of up to ±5 %. For HF, the situation is reversed. The two available data sets (HALOE and ACE-FTS) agree well above 100 hPa, with a spread in this region of ±5 to ±10 %, while at altitudes below 100 hPa the HF annual mean state is less well known, with a spread ±30 % and larger. The atmospheric SF6 annual mean states derived from two satellite data sets (MIPAS and ACE-FTS) show only very small differences with a spread of less than ±5 % and often below ±2.5 %. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (CFCs, SF6) or middle stratosphere (HF), individual discrepancies have been identified. Pronounced deviations between the instrument climatologies exist for particular atmospheric regions which differ from gas to gas. Notable features are differently shaped isopleths in the subtropics, deviations in the vertical gradients in the lower stratosphere and in the meridional gradients in the upper troposphere, and inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Additionally, long-term drifts between the instruments have been identified for the CFC-11 and CFC-12 time series. The evaluations as a whole provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of atmospheric transport and variability, model–measurement comparisons and detection of long-term trends. The data sets will be publicly available from the SPARC Data Centre and through PANGAEA (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849223).


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuli Zhang ◽  
Mengchu Tao ◽  
Jinqiang Zhang ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Hongbin Chen ◽  
...  

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone is both a major pollutant and a short-lived greenhouse gas and has therefore attracted much concern in recent years. The ozone profile in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over Beijing has been observed since 2002 by ozonesondes developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Increasing concentrations of tropospheric ozone from 2002 to 2010 measured by these balloon-based observations have been reported previously. As more observations are now available, we used these data to analyze the long-term variability of ozone over Beijing during the whole period from 2002 to 2018. The ozonesondes measured increasing concentrations of ozone from 2002 to 2012 in both the troposphere and lower stratosphere. There was a sudden decrease in observed ozone between 2011 and 2012. After this decrease, the increasing trend in ozone concentrations slowed down, especially in the mid-troposphere, where the positive trend became neutral. We used the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) to determine the influence of the transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere on the observed ozone profiles. CLaMS showed a weak increase in the contribution of stratospheric ozone before the decrease in 2011–2012 and a much more pronounced decrease after this time. Because there is no tropospheric chemistry in CLaMS, the sudden decrease simulated by CLaMS indicates that a smaller downward transport of ozone from the stratosphere after 2012 may explain a significant part of the observed decrease in ozone in the mid-troposphere and lower stratosphere. However, the influence of stratospheric ozone in the lower troposphere is negligible in CLaMS and the hiatus in the positive trend after 2012 can be attributed to a reduction in ozone precursors as a result of stronger pollution control measures in Beijing.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 11221-11268 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Thouret ◽  
M. Saunois ◽  
A. Minga ◽  
A. Mariscal ◽  
B. Sauvage ◽  
...  

Abstract. As part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program, a total of 98 ozone vertical profiles over Cotonou, Benin, have been measured during a 26 month period (December 2004–January 2007). These regular measurements broadly document the seasonal and inter annual variability of ozone in both the troposphere and the lower stratosphere over West Africa for the first time. This data set is complementary to the MOZAIC observations made from Lagos between 0 and 12 km during the period 1998–2004. Both data sets highlight the unique way in which West Africa is impacted by two biomass burning seasons: in December–February (dry season) due to burning in the Sahelian band and in June–August (wet season) due to burning in southern Africa. High inter annual variabilities between Cotonou and Lagos data sets and within each data set are observed and are found to be a major characteristic of this region. In particular, the dry and wet seasons are discussed in order to set the data of the Special Observing Periods (SOPs) into a climatological context. Compared to other dry and wet seasons, the dry and wet season campaigns took place in rather high ozoneenvironments. During the sampled wet seasons, southern intrusions of biomass burning were particularly frequent with concentrations up to 120 ppbv of ozone in the lower troposphere. An insight into the ozone distribution in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (up to 26 km) is given. The first tropospheric columns of ozone based on in-situ data in this region are assessed. They compare well with satellite products on seasonal and inter annual time-scales, provided that the layer below 850 Pa where the remote instrument is less sensitive to ozone, is removed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 753-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
James Anstey ◽  
Sean Davis ◽  
Rossana Dragani ◽  
Yayoi Harada ◽  
...  

Abstract. The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is the transition region between the well-mixed convective troposphere and the radiatively controlled stratosphere with air masses showing chemical and dynamical properties of both regions. The representation of the TTL in meteorological reanalysis data sets is important for studying the complex interactions of circulation, convection, trace gases, clouds, and radiation. In this paper, we present the evaluation of climatological and long-term TTL temperature and tropopause characteristics in the reanalysis data sets ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-25, JRA-55, MERRA, MERRA-2, NCEP-NCAR (R1), and CFSR. The evaluation has been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The most recent atmospheric reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFSR) all provide realistic representations of the major characteristics of the temperature structure within the TTL. There is good agreement between reanalysis estimates of tropical mean temperatures and radio occultation data, with relatively small cold biases for most data sets. Temperatures at the cold point and lapse rate tropopause levels, on the other hand, show warm biases in reanalyses when compared to observations. This tropopause-level warm bias is related to the vertical resolution of the reanalysis data, with the smallest bias found for data sets with the highest vertical resolution around the tropopause. Differences in the cold point temperature maximize over equatorial Africa, related to Kelvin wave activity and associated disturbances in TTL temperatures. Interannual variability in reanalysis temperatures is best constrained in the upper TTL, with larger differences at levels below the cold point. The reanalyses reproduce the temperature responses to major dynamical and radiative signals such as volcanic eruptions and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Long-term reanalysis trends in temperature in the upper TTL show good agreement with trends derived from adjusted radiosonde data sets indicating significant stratospheric cooling of around −0.5 to −1 K per decade. At 100 hPa and the cold point, most of the reanalyses suggest small but significant cooling trends of −0.3 to −0.6 K per decade that are statistically consistent with trends based on the adjusted radiosonde data sets. Advances of the reanalysis and observational systems over the last decades have led to a clear improvement in the TTL reanalysis products over time. Biases of the temperature profiles and differences in interannual variability clearly decreased in 2006, when densely sampled radio occultation data started being assimilated by the reanalyses. While there is an overall good agreement, different reanalyses offer different advantages in the TTL such as realistic profile and cold point temperature, continuous time series, or a realistic representation of signals of interannual variability. Their use in model simulations and in comparisons with climate model output should be tailored to their specific strengths and weaknesses.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexia Karwat ◽  
Christian L. E. Franzke ◽  
Richard Blender

<p>Long-term reanalysis data sets are needed to determine the natural variability of extra-tropical cyclone tracks and for the assessment of the response to global warming. Using a systematic change-point analysis we provide evidence that the pre-satellite ERA5 data of the Backward Extension (ERA5-BE, covering 1950-1978) is highly compatible with the standard ERA5 (1979-2021) data sets. We observe that the joint ERA5 data from 1950 to 2021 is consistent in all storm-related quantities, allowing long-term studies. Despite the high inter-annual variability, a trend analysis suggests that the intensity of extra-tropical cyclones has increased significantly in the Northern Hemisphere from 1950 to 2021. The propagation speed of extra-tropical cyclones has notably decreased and the North Atlantic cyclone track, in particular, has shifted northward. Furthermore, the number of North Pacific storms increased significantly; these storms exhibit longer life cycles and travel larger distances, while they also grow more slowly. From 1979 to 2021 we find increases in wind gusts and cyclone-related precipitation. The central geopotential height, a measure for storminess, has decreased in both storm track areas. The observed changes originating from potential changes in the atmospheric circulation are the result of natural variability and anthropogenic global warming. Future storm adaptation planning should consider the observed increase in storm-related impacts.</p>


2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Leblanc ◽  
I. S. McDermid ◽  
T. D. Walsh

Abstract. Recognizing the importance of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the scarcity of high-quality, long-term measurements, JPL began the development of a powerful Raman lidar in 2005 to try to meet these needs. This development was endorsed by the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the validation program for the EOS-Aura satellite. In this paper we review the stages in the instrumental development, data acquisition and analysis, profile retrieval and calibration procedures of the lidar, as well as selected results from three validation campaigns: MOHAVE (Measurements of Humidity in the Atmosphere and Validation Experiments), MOHAVE-II, and MOHAVE 2009. In particular, one critical result from this latest campaign is the very good agreement (well below the reported uncertainties) observed between the lidar and the Cryogenic Frost-Point Hygrometer in the entire lidar range 3–20 km, with a mean bias not exceeding 2% (lidar dry) in the lower troposphere, and 3% (lidar moist) in the UTLS. Ultimately the lidar has demonstrated capability to measure water vapor profiles from ∼1 km above the ground to the lower stratosphere with a precision of 10% or better near 13 km and below, and an estimated accuracy of 5%. Since 2005, nearly 1000 profiles have been routinely measured, and since 2009, the profiles have typically reached 14 km for one-hour integration times and 1.5 km vertical resolution, and can reach 21 km for 6-h integration times using degraded vertical resolutions. These performance figures show that, with our present target of routinely running our lidar two hours per night, 4 nights per week, we can achieve measurements with a precision in the UTLS equivalent to that achieved if launching one CFH per month.


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