scholarly journals Magmatic Processes at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe: Insights From Crystal Studies and Diffusion Timescales for Eruption Onset

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail Metcalfe ◽  
Séverine Moune ◽  
Jean-Christophe Komorowski ◽  
Geoff Kilgour ◽  
David E. Jessop ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Crisis Response ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Eruption Style ◽  
Magmatic Processes ◽  
Backscattered Electron ◽  
And Diffusion ◽  
Magmatic Timescales

Signals of volcanic unrest do not usually provide insights into the timing, size and style of future eruptions, but detailed analysis of past eruptions may uncover patterns that can be used to understand future eruptive behavior. Here, we examine basaltic-andesitic to andesitic eruption deposits from La Soufrière de Guadeloupe, covering a range of eruption styles, ages and magnitudes. Our work is timely given unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe has increased over the last 25 years. We constrain the timescales of magmatic processes preceding four eruptions: 1657 Cal. CE (Vulcanian), 1010 Cal. CE (Plinian), ∼341 Cal. CE (Strombolian) and 5680 Cal. BCE (La Soufrière de Guadeloupe’s first known Plinian eruption). Using crystal-specific analyses of diffusion in orthopyroxenes, we calculate the timescale occurring between the last recharge/mixing event in the magma reservoir and the eruption. We use backscattered electron images, coupled with EMPA of the outermost crystal rim, to derive magmatic timescales. We model the timescale populations as random processes whose probability distributions provide expected (“mean”) timescales and the associated standard errors for each eruption. This provides a new statistical method for comparing magmatic timescales between disparate eruptions. From this, we obtain timescales of magma storage at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe ranging from 34.8 ± 0.4 days to 847 ± 0.4 days, with no clear distinction between eruption style/size and timescales observed. Based on these data, magmatic interaction timescales are a poor predictor of eruption style/size. This study shows that magmatic processes prior to eruption can occur on relatively short timescales at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. Further to this basaltic-andesitic to andesitic volcanoes can rapidly produce large-scale eruptions on short timescales. These relatively short timescales calculated for volcanic processes at this system constitute a critical new data set and warrant an urgency in enhancing modeling and interpretation capabilities for near-real time monitoring data. These integrated efforts will improve early warning, eruption forecasting and crisis response management for different scenarios, as well as planning for long-term risk reduction.

scholarly journals Application of the ESMO-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (V.1.1) to the field of early breast cancer therapies

ESMO Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. e000743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shani Paluch-Shimon ◽  
Nathan I Cherny ◽  
Elisabeth G E de Vries ◽  
Urania Dafni ◽  
Martine J Piccart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Early Breast Cancer ◽  
Clinical Benefit ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Free Survival ◽  
Cancer Therapies ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Clinical Scenarios ◽  
Meta Analyses

Click here to listen to the PodcastBackgroundThe European Society for Medical Oncology-Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS) is a validated value scale for solid tumour anticancer treatments. Form 1 of the ESMO-MCBS, used to grade therapies with curative intent including adjuvant therapies, has only been evaluated for a limited number of studies. This is the first large-scale field testing in early breast cancer to assess the applicability of the scale to this data set and the reasonableness of derived scores and to identify any shortcomings to be addressed in future modifications of the scale.MethodRepresentative key studies and meta-analyses of the major modalities of adjuvant systemic therapy of breast cancer were identified for each of the major clinical scenarios (HER2-positive, HER2-negative, endocrine-responsive) and were graded with form 1 of the ESMO-MCBS. These generated scores were reviewed by a panel of experts for reasonableness. Shortcomings and issues related to the application of the scale and interpretation of results were identified and critically evaluated.ResultsSixty-five studies were eligible for evaluation: 59 individual studies and 6 meta-analyses. These studies incorporated 101 therapeutic comparisons, 61 of which were scorable. Review of the generated scores indicated that, with few exceptions, they generally reflected contemporary standards of practice. Six shortcomings were identified related to grading based on disease-free survival (DFS), lack of information regarding acute and long-term toxicity and an inability to grade single-arm de-escalation scales.ConclusionsForm 1 of the ESMO-MCBS is a robust tool for the evaluation of the magnitude of benefit studies in early breast cancer. The scale can be further improved by addressing issues related to grading based on DFS, annotating grades with information regarding acute and long-term toxicity and developing an approach to grade single-arm de-escalation studies.

Critical Review and Appraisal of Traditional and New Procedures for the Quantification of Creep Fracture Behavior Using 1Cr–1Mo–0.25V Steel

2009 ◽  
Vol 131 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rupture Life ◽  
Design Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Creep Fracture ◽  
Scale Test ◽  
New Procedures ◽  
Term Data

The approaches traditionally used to quantify creep and creep fracture are critically assessed and reviewed in relation to a new approach proposed by Wilshire and Scharning. The characteristics, limitations, and predictive accuracies of these models are illustrated by reference to information openly available for the bainitic 1Cr–1Mo–0.25V steel. When applied to this comprehensive long-term data set, the estimated 100,000–300,000 h strength obtained from the older so called traditional methods varied considerably. Further, the isothermal predictions from these models became very unstable beyond 100,000 h. In contrast, normalizing the applied stress through an appropriate ultimate tensile strength value not only reduced the melt to melt scatter in rupture life, but also the 100,000 h strengths determined from this model for this large scale test program are predicted very accurately by extrapolation of creep life measurements lasting less than 5000 h. The approach therefore offers the potential for reducing the scale and cost of current procedures for acquisition of long-term engineering design data.

scholarly journals Deep Link Entropy for Quantifying Edge Significance in Social Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 11182
Author(s):  
Seval Yurtcicek Ozaydin ◽  
Fatih Ozaydin
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Quantum Networks ◽  
Political Communications ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Precise Quantification ◽  
Diffusion In Networks ◽  
And Diffusion

Through online political communications, fragmented groups appear around ideological lines, which might form echo chambers if the communications within like-minded groups are dominant over the communications among different-minded groups, potentially contributing to political polarization and extremism. The antidote is the interactions between individuals who constitute social bridges between different minded groups. Hence, exploring the significance of connections between the individuals of a network is a center of attraction especially for the global connectivity and diffusion in networks. Based on the divergence of probability distributions of pairs of nodes, Link Entropy (LE) is a recently proposed method outperforming the others in quantifying edge significance. In this work, considering that the adjacent nodes of the two nodes of an edge are also in charge in determining its significance, we propose the Deep Link Entropy (DLE) method for a more precise quantification through taking into account the uncertainty distributions of the adjacent nodes as well. We show experimentally that DLE significantly outperforms LE especially in large-scale complex network with several groups or communities. We believe our method contributes to not only online political communications but a wide range of fields from biology to quantum networks, where edge significance has an operational meaning.

Seeking the Invisible

2020 ◽  
pp. 301-356
Author(s):  
Chloë N. Duckworth
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Compositional Data ◽  
Sampling Bias ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Large Scale Data ◽  
Roman Glass ◽  
Data Collation ◽  
Glass Recycling ◽  
Scale Data

In this chapter, the results of a large-scale programme of glass chemical data collation and analysis are presented to argue that glass recycling in the Roman period was far more extensive than has been realized to date. Over 6,000 samples of glass from published analyses since 1999 are interrogated in order to produce a long-term and large-scale data set for recycling evidence. In addition, literary evidence, and data from shipwrecks and other archaeological sites are summarized and considered, and basic modelling is used to suggest the sorts of patterns we should be looking for in compositional data for glass. It is argued that the quantity of Roman glass that was recycled has been underestimated due to several factors, including a lack of consideration of ‘like with like’ mixing, a lack of consideration of the formation processes of the archaeological record, and analytical sampling bias towards colourless vessel glass.

scholarly journals Marine Heatwaves in the Chesapeake Bay

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piero L. F. Mazzini ◽  
Cassia Pianca
Keyword(s):  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Benthic Communities ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
The Us ◽  
Temperature Records

Prolonged events of anomalously warm sea water temperature, or marine heatwaves (MHWs), have major detrimental effects to marine ecosystems and the world's economy. While frequency, duration and intensity of MHWs have been observed to increase in the global oceans, little is known about their potential occurrence and variability in estuarine systems due to limited data in these environments. In the present study we analyzed a novel data set with over three decades of continuous in situ temperature records to investigate MHWs in the largest and most productive estuary in the US: the Chesapeake Bay. MHWs occurred on average twice per year and lasted 11 days, resulting in 22 MHW days per year in the bay. Average intensities of MHWs were 3°C, with maximum peaks varying between 6 and 8°C, and yearly cumulative intensities of 72°C × days on average. Large co-occurrence of MHW events was observed between different regions of the bay (50–65%), and also between Chesapeake Bay and the Mid-Atlantic Bight (40–50%). These large co-occurrences, with relatively short lags (2–5 days), suggest that coherent large-scale air-sea heat flux is the dominant driver of MHWs in this region. MHWs were also linked to large-scale climate modes of variability: enhancement of MHW days in the Upper Bay were associated with the positive phase of Niño 1+2, while enhancement and suppression of MHW days in both the Mid and Lower Bay were associated with positive and negative phases of North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. Finally, as a result of long-term warming of the Chesapeake Bay, significant trends were detected for MHW frequency, MHW days and yearly cumulative intensity. If these trends persist, by the end of the century the Chesapeake Bay will reach a semi-permanent MHW state, when extreme temperatures will be present over half of the year, and thus could have devastating impacts to the bay ecosystem, exacerbating eutrophication, increasing the severity of hypoxic events, killing benthic communities, causing shifts in species composition and decline in important commercial fishery species. Improving our basic understanding of MHWs in estuarine regions is necessary for their future predictability and to guide management decisions in these valuable environments.

Socioeconomic status and long-term exposure to disadvantaged neighbourhoods in France

Urban Studies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (13) ◽  
pp. 2663-2680
Author(s):  
Haley McAvay
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Data Set ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
Low Income Children ◽  
Immigrant Background ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Disadvantaged Neighbourhoods

This paper uses a large-scale longitudinal data set from France over a 23-year period (1990–2013) to investigate the links between socioeconomic status and long-term exposure to disadvantaged neighbourhoods. The findings show that while local environments tend to be durable over the life course, higher income substantially reduces the risk of staying in spaces with high unemployment over time. The negative effect of income on the transmission of disadvantage is found regardless of immigrant background. However, a specific form of socio-spatial disadvantage is observed for low-income children of non-European immigrant(s), who experience a greater degree of exposure to high unemployment areas from childhood to adulthood than any other group. These findings make a new contribution to emerging research on intergenerational contextual mobility by documenting the moderating effect of income and immigrant origin on the transmission of spatial disadvantage.

scholarly journals Space-Time Variability of the Rainfall over Sahel: Observation of a Latitudinal Sharp Transition of the Statistical Properties

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdoulaye Sy ◽  
Christophe Duroure ◽  
Jean-Luc Baray ◽  
Yahya Gour ◽  
Joël Van Baelen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Time Variability ◽  
Local Characteristic ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Space Size ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Rain Events

The rain statistics of 0–45° N area including equatorial, Sahelian, and mid-latitude regions, are studied using the probability distributions of the duration of rainy and dry events. Long time daily data set from ground measurements and satellite observations of rain fields are used. This technique highlights a sharp latitudinal transition of the statistics between equatorial and all other regions (Sahel, mid-latitude). The probability distribution of the 8° S to 8° N latitude band shows a large-scale organization with a slow decreasing (power law decrease) distributions for the time and space size of rain events. This observation is in agreement with a scaling, or macro turbulent, behavior of the equatorial regions rain fields. For the Sahelian and mid-latitude regions, our observations are clearly not in agreement with this behavior. They show that the largest rain systems have a limited time and space size (well described with a decreasing exponential distribution). For these non-equatorial regions it is possible to define a local characteristic duration and a characteristic horizontal size of the large rain events. These characteristics time and space scales of observed mesoscale convective systems could be a sensible indicator for the detection of the possible trend of rain distribution properties due to anthropogenic influence.

scholarly journals Replicability, repeatability, and long-term reproducibility of cerebellar morphometry

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Sörös ◽  
Louise Wölk ◽  
Carsten Bantel ◽  
Anja Bräuer ◽  
Frank Klawonn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Intraclass Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Intraclass Correlation ◽  
Structural Mri ◽  
Software Tools ◽  
Computer Hardware ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mri Scans

AbstractTo identify robust and reproducible methods of cerebellar morphometry that can be used in future large-scale structural MRI studies, we investigated the replicability, repeatability, and longterm reproducibility of three fully-automated software tools: FreeSurfer, CERES, and ACAPULCO. Replicability was defined as computational replicability, determined by comparing two analyses of the same high-resolution MRI data set performed with identical analysis software and computer hardware. Repeatability was determined by comparing the analyses of two MRI scans of the same participant taken during two independent MRI sessions on the same day for the Kirby-21 study. Long-term reproducibility was assessed by analyzing two MRI scans of the same participant in the longitudinal OASIS-2 study. We determined percent difference, the image intraclass correlation coefficient, the coefficient of variation, and the intraclass correlation coefficient between two analyses. Our results show that CERES and ACAPULCO use stochastic algorithms that result in surprisingly high differences between identical analyses for ACAPULCO and small differences for CERES. Changes between two consecutive scans from the Kirby-21 study were less than ±5% in most cases for FreeSurfer and CERES (i.e., demonstrating high repeatability). As expected, long-term reproducibility was lower than repeatability for all software tools. In summary, CERES is an accurate, as demonstrated before, and reproducible tool for fully-automated segmentation and parcellation of the cerebellum. We conclude with recommendations for the assessment of replicability, repeatability, and longterm reproducibility in future studies on cerebellar structure.

scholarly journals Accumulation Distribution in the IAGP Area, Antarctica: 90°E-150°E

1982 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 333-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. W. Young ◽  
M. Pourchet ◽  
V. M. Kotlyakov ◽  
P. A. Korolev ◽  
M. B. Dyugerov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Activity Measurements ◽  
Wilkes Land ◽  
Large Sector ◽  
The Relationship

The distribution of mean net accumulation rate over a large sector (90°E to 150°E) of the IAGP (International Antarctic Glaciological Project) area in Antarctica is presented in map form. The basic data have been compiled from direct measurements of accumulation at stake networks, and by dating horizons in the snow pack by gross β-activity measurements, on four long traverse routes. The spatial variability can be high, over 40%, for a single year, and typically about 20% for multiyear averages. Local surface topography in the form of undulations of several kilometres wavelength can account for about 35% of the variance. Averaging over Intervals of 50 km or more will give the smooth large-scale distribution pattern. But the resultant values can still deviate from the long-term average accumulation by 25% or more due to temporal variability over time scales of years to decades.A very high correlation (r = 0.97) was found for the relationship a = 1414 exp (0.060 θ10) between accumulation, a kg m−2a−1, and 10 m depth snow temperature, θ10°C, when the data set was limited to a single large drainage basin in Wilkes Land.

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