scholarly journals The Nonlinear Radiative Feedback Effects in the Arctic Warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Huang ◽  
Han Huang ◽  
Aliia Shakirova
Keyword(s):  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Kernel Method ◽  
Coupling Effect ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Feedback Effects ◽  
Feedback Analysis ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Arctic Climate Change

The analysis of radiative feedbacks requires the separation and quantification of the radiative contributions of different feedback variables, such as atmospheric temperature, water vapor, surface albedo, cloud, etc. It has been a challenge to include the nonlinear radiative effects of these variables in the feedback analysis. For instance, the kernel method that is widely used in the literature assumes linearity and completely neglects the nonlinear effects. Nonlinear effects may arise from the nonlinear dependency of radiation on each of the feedback variables, especially when the change in them is of large magnitude such as in the case of the Arctic climate change. Nonlinear effects may also arise from the coupling between different feedback variables, which often occurs as feedback variables including temperature, humidity and cloud tend to vary in a coherent manner. In this paper, we use brute-force radiation model calculations to quantify both univariate and multivariate nonlinear feedback effects and provide a qualitative explanation of their causes based on simple analytical models. We identify these prominent nonlinear effects in the CO2-driven Arctic climate change: 1) the univariate nonlinear effect in the surface albedo feedback, which results from a nonlinear dependency of planetary albedo on the surface albedo, which causes the linear kernel method to overestimate the univariate surface albedo feedback; 2) the coupling effect between surface albedo and cloud, which offsets the univariate surface albedo feedback; 3) the coupling effect between atmospheric temperature and cloud, which offsets the very strong univariate temperature feedback. These results illustrate the hidden biases in the linear feedback analysis methods and highlight the need for nonlinear methods in feedback quantification.

scholarly journals Time-Dependent Variations in the Arctic’s Surface Albedo Feedback and the Link to Seasonality in Sea Ice

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 393-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Andry ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Wilco Hazeleger
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Kernel Method ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Albedo Feedback

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (e.g., 2007 and 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, any change in sea ice cover will have a strong impact on the climate response through the radiative surface albedo feedback. Since sea ice area is projected to shrink considerably, this feedback will likely vary considerably in time. Feedbacks are usually evaluated as being constant in time, even though feedbacks and climate sensitivity depend on the climate state. Here the authors assess and quantify these temporal changes in the strength of the surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Analyses unequivocally demonstrate that the strength of the surface albedo feedback exhibits considerable temporal variations. Specifically, the strength of the surface albedo feedback in the Arctic, evaluated for simulations of the future climate (CMIP5 RCP8.5) using a kernel method, shows a distinct peak around the year 2100. This maximum is found to be linked to increased seasonality in sea ice cover when sea ice recedes, in which sea ice retreat during spring turns out to be the dominant factor affecting the strength of the annual surface albedo feedback in the Arctic. Hence, changes in sea ice seasonality and the associated fluctuations in surface albedo feedback strength will exert a time-varying effect on Arctic amplification during the projected warming over the next century.

scholarly journals The polar amplification asymmetry: role of Antarctic surface height

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 323-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Salzmann
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Reliable Estimate ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Radiative Feedbacks ◽  
Model Setup

Abstract. Previous studies have attributed an overall weaker (or slower) polar amplification in Antarctica compared to the Arctic to a weaker Antarctic surface albedo feedback and also to more efficient ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean in combination with Antarctic ozone depletion. Here, the role of the Antarctic surface height for meridional heat transport and local radiative feedbacks, including the surface albedo feedback, was investigated based on CO2-doubling experiments in a low-resolution coupled climate model. When Antarctica was assumed to be flat, the north–south asymmetry of the zonal mean top of the atmosphere radiation budget was notably reduced. Doubling CO2 in a flat Antarctica (flat AA) model setup led to a stronger increase in southern hemispheric poleward atmospheric and oceanic heat transport compared to the base model setup. Based on partial radiative perturbation (PRP) computations, it was shown that local radiative feedbacks and an increase in the CO2 forcing in the deeper atmospheric column also contributed to stronger Antarctic warming in the flat AA model setup, and the roles of the individual radiative feedbacks are discussed in some detail. A considerable fraction (between 24 and 80 % for three consecutive 25-year time slices starting in year 51 and ending in year 126 after CO2 doubling) of the polar amplification asymmetry was explained by the difference in surface height, but the fraction was subject to transient changes and might to some extent also depend on model uncertainties. In order to arrive at a more reliable estimate of the role of land height for the observed polar amplification asymmetry, additional studies based on ensemble runs from higher-resolution models and an improved model setup with a more realistic gradual increase in the CO2 concentration are required.

scholarly journals Coupled High-Latitude Climate Feedbacks and Their Impact on Atmospheric Heat Transport

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Feldl ◽  
Simona Bordoni ◽  
Timothy M. Merlis
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Atmospheric Heat Transport ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Atmospheric Heat

The response of atmospheric heat transport to anthropogenic warming is determined by the anomalous meridional energy gradient. Feedback analysis offers a characterization of that gradient and hence reveals how uncertainty in physical processes may translate into uncertainty in the circulation response. However, individual feedbacks do not act in isolation. Anomalies associated with one feedback may be compensated by another, as is the case for the positive water vapor and negative lapse rate feedbacks in the tropics. Here a set of idealized experiments are performed in an aquaplanet model to evaluate the coupling between the surface albedo feedback and other feedbacks, including the impact on atmospheric heat transport. In the tropics, the dynamical response manifests as changes in the intensity and structure of the overturning Hadley circulation. Only half of the range of Hadley cell weakening exhibited in these experiments is found to be attributable to imposed, systematic variations in the surface albedo feedback. Changes in extratropical clouds that accompany the albedo changes explain the remaining spread. The feedback-driven circulation changes are compensated by eddy energy flux changes, which reduce the overall spread among experiments. These findings have implications for the efficiency with which the climate system, including tropical circulation and the hydrological cycle, adjusts to high-latitude feedbacks over climate states that range from perennial or seasonal ice to ice-free conditions in the Arctic.

scholarly journals Assessment of Sea Ice Albedo Radiative Forcing and Feedback over the Northern Hemisphere from 1982 to 2009 Using Satellite and Reanalysis Data

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 1248-1259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunfeng Cao ◽  
Shunlin Liang ◽  
Xiaona Chen ◽  
Tao He
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Kernel Method ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Albedo Feedback

Abstract The decreasing surface albedo caused by continuously retreating sea ice over Arctic plays a critical role in Arctic warming amplification. However, the quantification of the change in radiative forcing at top of atmosphere (TOA) introduced by the decreasing sea ice albedo and its feedback to the climate remain uncertain. In this study, based on the satellite-retrieved long-term surface albedo product CLARA-A1 (Cloud, Albedo, and Radiation dataset, AVHRR-based, version 1) and the radiative kernel method, an estimated 0.20 ± 0.05 W m−2 sea ice radiative forcing (SIRF) has decreased in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) owing to the loss of sea ice from 1982 to 2009, yielding a sea ice albedo feedback (SIAF) of 0.25 W m−2 K−1 for the NH and 0.19 W m−2 K−1 for the entire globe. These results are lower than the estimate from another method directly using the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) broadband planetary albedo. Further data analysis indicates that kernel method is likely to underestimate the change in all-sky SIRF because all-sky radiative kernels mask too much of the effect of sea ice albedo on the variation of cloudy albedo. By applying an adjustment with CERES-based estimate, the change in all-sky SIRF over the NH was corrected to 0.33 ± 0.09 W m−2, corresponding to a SIAF of 0.43 W m−2 K−1 for NH and 0.31 W m−2 K−1 for the entire globe. It is also determined that relative to satellite surface albedo product, two popular reanalysis products, ERA-Interim and MERRA, severely underestimate the changes in NH SIRF in melt season (May–August) from 1982 to 2009 and the sea ice albedo feedback to warming climate.

scholarly journals The polar amplification asymmetry: Role of antarctic surface height

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Salzmann
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Radiative Feedbacks ◽  
Model Setup

Abstract. Previous studies have attributed an overall weaker (or slower) polar amplification in Antarctica compared to the Arctic to a weaker antarctic surface albedo feedback and also to more efficient ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean in combination with antarctic ozone depletion. Here, the role of the antarctic surface height for meridional heat transport and local radiative feedbacks including the surface albedo feedback was investigated based on CO2 doubling experiments in a low resolution coupled climate model. If Antarctica was assumed to be flat, the north-south asymmetry of the zonal mean top of the atmosphere radiation budget was significantly reduced. Doubling CO2 in a flat Antarctica ("flat AA") model setup led to a stronger increase of southern hemispheric poleward atmospheric and oceanic heat transport compared to the base model setup. Based on partial radiative perturbation (PRP) computations it was shown that local radiative feedbacks and an increase of the CO2 forcing in the deeper atmospheric column also contributed to stronger antarctic warming in the flat AA model setup, and the roles of the individual radiative feedbacks are discussed in some detail. A significant fraction (between 24 and 80 % for three consecutive 25-year time slices starting in year 51 and ending in year 126 after CO2 doubling) of the polar amplification asymmetry was explained by the difference in surface height, but the fraction was subject to transient changes, and might to some extent also depend on model uncertainties.

scholarly journals Attribution of the spatial heterogeneity of Arctic surface albedo feedback to the dynamics of vegetation, snow and soil properties and their interactions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linfei Yu ◽  
Guoyong Leng ◽  
Andre Python
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Krasnoyarsk Krai ◽  
Baffin Island ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Dynamics Of Vegetation

Abstract The Arctic warming rate is triple the global average, which is partially caused by surface albedo feedback (SAF). Understanding the varying pattern of SAF and the mechanisms is therefore critical for predicting future Arctic climate under anthropogenic warming. To date, however, how the spatial pattern of seasonal SAF is influenced by various land surface factors remains unclear. Here, we aim to quantify the strengths of seasonal SAF across the Arctic and to attribute its spatial heterogeneity to the dynamics of vegetation, snow and soil as well as their interactions. The results show a large positive SAF above -5%·K-1 across Baffin Island in January and eastern Yakutia in June, while a large negative SAF beyond 5%·K-1 is observed in Canada, Chukotka and low latitudes of Greenland in January and Nunavut, Baffin Island and Krasnoyarsk Krai in July. Overall, a great spatial heterogeneity of Arctic land warming induced by positive SAF is found with a coefficient of variation (CV) larger than 61.5%, and the largest spatial difference is detected in wintertime with a CV > 643.9%. Based on the optimal parameter-based geographic detector model, the impacts of snow cover fraction (SCF), land cover type (LC), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil water content (SW), soil substrate chemistry (SC) and soil type (ST) on the spatial pattern of positive SAF are quantified. The rank of determinant power is SCF > LC > NDVI > SW > SC > ST, which indicates that the spatial patterns of snow cover, land cover and vegetation coverage dominate the spatial heterogeneity of positive SAF in the Arctic. The interactions between SCF, LC and SW exert further influences on the spatial pattern of positive SAF in March, June and July. This work could provide a deeper understanding of how various land factors contribute to the spatial heterogeneity of Arctic land warming at the annual cycle.

The Arctic lapse rate feedback: An energy budget analysis of CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivia Linke ◽  
Johannes Quaas
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Atmospheric Energy ◽  
Rate Feedback

<p>The strong warming trend in the Arctic is mostly confined at the surface, and particularly evident during the cold season. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) stands out as one of the dominant causes of the Arctic amplification (besides the surface albedo feedback) given its differing response between high and lower latitudes. The LRF is the deviation from the uniform temperature change throughout the troposphere, and can thereby be quantified as the difference of tropospheric warming and surface warming. In the Arctic, it enforces a positive radiative feedback as the bottom-heavy warming is increasingly muted at higher altitudes, which has been suggested to relate to the lack of vertical mixing. In fact, climate model studies have recently identified more negative lapse rates for models with stronger inversions over large parts of the Arctic ocean, and snow-free land during winter.</p><p>Here we quantify individual components of the atmospheric energy balance to better understand the determination of the temperature lapse rate in the Arctic, which does not only interact with the surface albedo feedback, but also changes in atmospheric transport. A decomposition of the atmospheric energy budget is derived from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and concerns the radiation budgets, the transport divergence of heat and moisture, and the surface turbulent heat fluxes. Alterations of the budget components are obtained through pairs of model scenarios to simulate the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels in an idealized setup.</p><p>The most notable features are the strongly opposing winter changes of the surface heat fluxes over regions of sea ice retreat and open Arctic ocean, and the interplay with the compensating energy transport divergence which can be linked to the near-surface air moist static energy in an energetic-diffusive perspective. We further aim to relate the changes of individual energetics to the temperature lapse rate in the Arctic to better understand and quantify the factors contributing to its evolution.</p>

Current GCMs’ Unrealistic Negative Feedback in the Arctic

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (17) ◽  
pp. 4682-4695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Boé ◽  
Alex Hall ◽  
Xin Qu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Feedback Parameter ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Feedback Analysis ◽  
Temperature Feedback ◽  
Large Spread ◽  
Arctic Climate Change

Abstract The large spread of the response to anthropogenic forcing simulated by state-of-the-art climate models in the Arctic is investigated. A feedback analysis framework specific to the Arctic is developed to address this issue. The feedback analysis shows that a large part of the spread of Arctic climate change is explained by the longwave feedback parameter. The large spread of the negative longwave feedback parameter is in turn mainly due to variations in temperature feedback. The vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere in the Arctic, characterized by a surface inversion during wintertime, exerts a strong control on the temperature feedback and consequently on simulated Arctic climate change. Most current climate models likely overestimate the climatological strength of the inversion, leading to excessive negative longwave feedback. The authors conclude that the models’ near-equilibrium response to anthropogenic forcing is generally too small.

scholarly journals The Effect of Atmospheric Transmissivity on Model and Observational Estimates of the Sea Ice Albedo Feedback

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
pp. 5743-5765
Author(s):  
Aaron Donohoe ◽  
Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth ◽  
Axel Schweiger ◽  
Philip J. Rasch
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Feedback Parameter ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Concentration Changes

AbstractThe sea ice-albedo feedback (SIAF) is the product of the ice sensitivity (IS), that is, how much the surface albedo in sea ice regions changes as the planet warms, and the radiative sensitivity (RS), that is, how much the top-of-atmosphere radiation changes as the surface albedo changes. We demonstrate that the RS calculated from radiative kernels in climate models is reproduced from calculations using the “approximate partial radiative perturbation” method that uses the climatological radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and the assumption that the atmosphere is isotropic to shortwave radiation. This method facilitates the comparison of RS from satellite-based estimates of climatological radiative fluxes with RS estimates across a full suite of coupled climate models and, thus, allows model evaluation of a quantity important in characterizing the climate impact of sea ice concentration changes. The satellite-based RS is within the model range of RS that differs by a factor of 2 across climate models in both the Arctic and Southern Ocean. Observed trends in Arctic sea ice are used to estimate IS, which, in conjunction with the satellite-based RS, yields an SIAF of 0.16 ± 0.04 W m−2 K−1. This Arctic SIAF estimate suggests a modest amplification of future global surface temperature change by approximately 14% relative to a climate system with no SIAF. We calculate the global albedo feedback in climate models using model-specific RS and IS and find a model mean feedback parameter of 0.37 W m−2 K−1, which is 40% larger than the IPCC AR5 estimate based on using RS calculated from radiative kernel calculations in a single climate model.

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