scholarly journals Integrated Hydrologic Modelling of Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions in Cold Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofan Yang ◽  
Jinhua Hu ◽  
Rui Ma ◽  
Ziyong Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Cold Region ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Cold Regions ◽  
Hydrologic Processes

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction, as a key component in the cold region hydrologic cycle, is extremely sensitive to seasonal and climate change. Specifically, the dynamic change of snow cover and frozen soil bring additional challenges in observing and simulating hydrologic processes under GW-SW interactions in cold regions. Integrated hydrologic models are promising tools to simulate such complex processes and study the system behaviours as well as its responses to perturbations. The cold region integrated hydrologic models should be physically representative and fully considering the thermal-hydrologic processes under snow cover variations, freeze-thaw cycles in frozen soils and GW-SW interactions. Benchmarking and integration with scarce field observations are also critical in developing cold region integrated hydrologic models. This review summarizes the current status of hydrologic models suitable for cold environment, including distributed hydrologic models, cryo-hydrogeologic models, and fully-coupled cold region GW-SW models, with a specific focus on their concepts, numerical methods, benchmarking, and applications across scales. The current research can provide implications for cold region hydrologic model development and advance our understanding of altered environments in cold regions disturbed by climate change, such as permafrost degradation, early snow melt and water shortage.

Effects of Hydrologic Model Choice and Calibration on the Portrayal of Climate Change Impacts

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 762-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo A. Mendoza ◽  
Martyn P. Clark ◽  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
Andrew J. Newman ◽  
Michael Barlage ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Climate System Model

Abstract The assessment of climate change impacts on water resources involves several methodological decisions, including choices of global climate models (GCMs), emission scenarios, downscaling techniques, and hydrologic modeling approaches. Among these, hydrologic model structure selection and parameter calibration are particularly relevant and usually have a strong subjective component. The goal of this research is to improve understanding of the role of these decisions on the assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrologic processes. The study is conducted in three basins located in the Colorado headwaters region, using four different hydrologic model structures [PRMS, VIC, Noah LSM, and Noah LSM with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP)]. To better understand the role of parameter estimation, model performance and projected hydrologic changes (i.e., changes in the hydrology obtained from hydrologic models due to climate change) are compared before and after calibration with the University of Arizona shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) algorithm. Hydrologic changes are examined via a climate change scenario where the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) change signal is used to perturb the boundary conditions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model configured at 4-km resolution. Substantial intermodel differences (i.e., discrepancies between hydrologic models) in the portrayal of climate change impacts on water resources are demonstrated. Specifically, intermodel differences are larger than the mean signal from the CCSM–WRF climate scenario examined, even after the calibration process. Importantly, traditional single-objective calibration techniques aimed to reduce errors in runoff simulations do not necessarily improve intermodel agreement (i.e., same outputs from different hydrologic models) in projected changes of some hydrological processes such as evapotranspiration or snowpack.

Current Status and Development Trend of Assembled Structure in Cold Regions

2014 ◽  
Vol 941-944 ◽  
pp. 809-813
Author(s):  
Ya Bo Wang ◽  
Han Ting Liu
Keyword(s):  
Development Trend ◽  
Feasibility Analysis ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Cold Region ◽  
Cold Regions ◽  
History Of

Based on the review of the history of domestic and foreign architecture, the necessity and urgency of industrialization in construction is expounded. According to the current status and problems of the assembled structure in severe cold region, the method is given. The feasibility analysis is done in the light of the comparatively example.

scholarly journals Future directions for hydropedology: quantifying impacts of global change on land use

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1427-1438 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Vepraskas ◽  
J. L. Heitman ◽  
R. E. Austin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Table ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Soil Survey ◽  
Septic Systems ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Similar Work ◽  
Table Data

Abstract. Hydropedology is well positioned to address contemporary issues resulting from climate change. We propose a six-step process by which digital, field-scale maps will be produced to show where climate change impacts will be greatest for two land uses: a) home sites using septic systems, and b) wetlands. State and federal laws have defined critical water table levels that can be used to determine where septic systems will function well or fail, and where wetlands are likely to occur. Hydrologic models along with historic rainfall and temperature data can be used to compute long records of water table data. However, it is difficult to extrapolate such data across land regions, because too little work has been done to test different ways for doing this reliably. The modeled water table data can be used to define soil drainage classes for individual mapping units, and the drainage classes used to extrapolate the data regionally using existing digital soil survey maps. Estimates of changes in precipitation and temperature can also be input into the models to compute changes to water table levels and drainage classes. To do this effectively, more work needs to be done on developing daily climate files from the monthly climate change predictions. Technology currently exists to use the NRCS Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database with hydrologic model predictions to develop maps within a GIS that show climate change impacts on septic system performance and wetland boundaries. By using these maps, planners will have the option to scale back development in sensitive areas, or simply monitor the water quality of these areas for pathogenic organisms. The calibrated models and prediction maps should be useful throughout the Coastal Plain region. Similar work for other climate-change and land-use issues can be a valuable contribution from hydropedologists.

Hydrologic Responses to Climate Change in Mountainous Watershed of Southwest China, 1980 to 2010

2014 ◽  
Vol 675-677 ◽  
pp. 794-800
Author(s):  
Yang Yang Liu ◽  
Bo Juan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Test Analysis ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Hydrologic Responses

Hydrologic responses to climate change have become a great challenge and attracted widespread attention of the researchers. The mountainous Qingyi River watershed in the southwest, China, had experienced significant climate change in the past three decades. It is necessary to investigate the hydrologic responses to these changes. Therefore, the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff, baseflow and streamflow were assessed using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The Mann–Kendall test analysis was first used to identify the long-term change in precipitation and temperature over the period of 1980–2010. It revealed that there is a significant change in annual temperature particularly in February, March, July and September, whereas an insignificant change in annual precipitation was founded. Hydrologic simulations show that hydrologic responses to climate change were varied from region to region. Surface runoff was more sensitive than ET and baseflow. Monthly variation of the hydrologic processes, especially the change in surface runoff, was mainly attributed to seasonal variation in precipitation. The results of this research can be a useful source of information for the decision making in water resources management and protection.

scholarly journals Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 4793-4813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seungwoo Chang ◽  
Wendy Graham ◽  
Jeffrey Geurink ◽  
Nisai Wanakule ◽  
Tirusew Asefa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Environmental Regulations ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Tampa Bay ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) have been widely used to simulate current and future climate at the global scale. However, the development of frameworks to apply GCMs to assess potential climate change impacts on regional hydrologic systems, ability to meet future water demand, and compliance with water resource regulations is more recent. In this study eight GCMs were bias-corrected and downscaled using the bias correction and stochastic analog (BCSA) downscaling method and then used, together with three ET0 methods and eight different water use scenarios, to drive an integrated hydrologic model previously developed for the Tampa Bay region in western central Florida. Variance-based sensitivity analysis showed that changes in projected streamflow were very sensitive to GCM selection, but relatively insensitive to ET0 method or water use scenario. Changes in projections of groundwater level were sensitive to both GCM and water use scenario, but relatively insensitive to ET0 method. Five of eight GCMs projected a decrease in streamflow and groundwater availability in the future regardless of water use scenario or ET method. For the business as usual water use scenario all eight GCMs indicated that, even with active water conservation programs, increases in public water demand projected for 2045 could not be met from ground and surface water supplies while achieving current groundwater level and surface water flow regulations. With adoption of 40 % wastewater reuse for public supply and active conservation four of the eight GCMs indicate that 2045 public water demand could be met while achieving current environmental regulations; however, drier climates would require a switch from groundwater to surface water use. These results indicate a high probability of a reduction in future freshwater supply in the Tampa Bay region if environmental regulations intended to protect current aquatic ecosystems do not adapt to the changing climate. Broad interpretation of the results of this study may be limited by the fact that all future water use scenarios assumed that increases in water demand would be the result of intensification of water use on existing agricultural, industrial, and urban lands. Future work should evaluate the impacts of a range of potential land use change scenarios, with associated water use change projections, over a larger number of GCMs.

scholarly journals Integrated Surface Water and Groundwater Analysis under the Effects of Climate Change, Hydraulic Fracturing and its Associated Activities: A Case Study from Northwestern Alberta, Canada

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Gopal Chandra Saha ◽  
Michael Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Groundwater Discharge ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water And Groundwater ◽  
Simulation Results

This study assessed how hydraulic fracturing (HF) (water withdrawals from nearby river water source) and its associated activities (construction of well pads) would affect surface water and groundwater in 2021–2036 under changing climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the CanESM2) in a shale gas and oil play area (23,984.9 km2) of northwestern Alberta, Canada. An integrated hydrologic model (MIKE-SHE and MIKE-11 models), and a cumulative effects landscape simulator (ALCES) were used for this assessment. The simulation results show an increase in stream flow and groundwater discharge in 2021–2036 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with respect to those under the base modeling period (2000–2012). This occurs because of the increased precipitation and temperature predicted in the study area under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results found that HF has very small (less than 1%) subtractive impacts on stream flow in 2021–2036 because of the large size of the study area, although groundwater discharge would increase minimally (less than 1%) due to the increase in the gradient between groundwater and surface water systems. The simulation results also found that the construction of well pads related to HF have very small (less than 1%) additive impacts on stream flow and groundwater discharge due to the non-significant changes in land use. The obtained results from this study provide valuable information for effective long-term water resources decision making in terms of seasonal and annual water extractions from the river, and allocation of water to the oil and gas industries for HF in the study area to meet future energy demand considering future climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 2789-2803 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Özdoğan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the high-impact A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate but these findings also contain a larger uncertainty. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

scholarly journals Hydrologic Model Evaluation and Assessment of Projected Climate Change Impacts Using Bias-Corrected Stream Flows

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2312
Author(s):  
Joseph A. Daraio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Stream Flows

Hydrologic models driven by downscaled meteorologic data from general circulation models (GCM) should be evaluated using long-term simulations over a historical period. However, simulations driven by GCM data cannot be directly evaluated using observed flows, and the confidence in the results can be relatively low. The objectives of this paper were to bias correct simulated stream flows from calibrated hydrologic models for two basins in New Jersey, USA, and evaluate model performance in comparison to uncorrected simulations. Then, we used stream flow bias correction and flow duration curves (FDCs) to evaluate and assess simulations driven by statistically downscaled GCMs for the historical period and the future time slices 2041–2070 and 2071–2099. Bias correction of stream flow from simulations increased confidence in the performance of two previously calibrated hydrologic models. Results indicated there was no difference in projected FDCs for uncorrected and bias-corrected flows in one basin, while this was not the case in the second basin. This result provided greater confidence in projected stream flow changes in the former basin and implied more uncertainty in projected stream flows in the latter. Applications in water resources can use the methods described to evaluate the performance of GCM-driven simulations and assess the potential impacts of climate change with an appropriate level of confidence in the model results.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 3631-3666 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Özdoğan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the aggressive A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

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