scholarly journals A Machine Learning-Based Model to Predict Survival After Transarterial Chemoembolization for BCLC Stage B Hepatocellular Carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huapeng Lin ◽  
Lingfeng Zeng ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Wei Hu ◽  
Ying Zhu

ObjectiveWe sought to develop and validate a novel prognostic model for predicting survival of patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stages (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a machine learning approach based on random survival forests (RSF).MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed overall survival rates of patients with BCLC stage B HCC using a training (n = 602), internal validation (n = 301), and external validation (n = 343) groups. We extracted twenty-one clinical and biochemical parameters with established strategies for preprocessing, then adopted the RSF classifier for variable selection and model development. We evaluated model performance using the concordance index (c-index) and area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUROC).ResultsRSF revealed that five parameters, namely size of the tumor, BCLC-B sub-classification, AFP level, ALB level, and number of lesions, were strong predictors of survival. These were thereafter used for model development. The established model had a c-index of 0.69, whereas AUROC for predicting survival outcomes of the first three years reached 0.72, 0.71, and 0.73, respectively. Additionally, the model had better performance relative to other eight Cox proportional-hazards models, and excellent performance in the subgroup of BCLC-B sub-classification B I and B II stages.ConclusionThe RSF-based model, established herein, can effectively predict survival of patients with BCLC stage B HCC, with better performance than previous Cox proportional hazards models.

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-478
Author(s):  
Tinatin Zurabishvili ◽  
Rennie Lee ◽  
Rebecca Jean Emigh

This article examines the factors influencing age at death in the multiethnic villages, comprised mostly of Georgians and Ossets, in the Kistauri commune in the eastern Republic of Georgia between 1897 and 1997. The data are analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models using age at death as the dependent variable, and ethnicity, gender, marital status, residency status, and year of birth as the independent variables. The results show that Georgians lived longer than Ossets. Individuals who had ever been married lived longer than those who had not. The results perhaps reflect harsher living conditions for Ossets, the ethnic minority, despite Soviet ideologies about equality.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangli Yin ◽  
Changfeng Man ◽  
Jiayu Huang ◽  
Shengen Liao ◽  
Xin Gao ◽  
...  

Abstract Background In adult patients with secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (sHLH), no valid immune biomarker has been available for predicting the prognosis of untreated sHLH patients. Methods Circulating plasma levels of fibrinogen (FIB) were measured at diagnosis in 293 cases of adult sHLH. We categorized FIB levels into tertiles. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between FIB and survival. Restricted cubic spline models and two-piecewise Cox proportional hazards models were used to address the nonlinear association between FIB and mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 52 (interquartile ranges, 18–221) days, 208 deaths occurred, with 137 deaths in malignancy-associated hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (MHLH) and 71 deaths in non-malignancy-associated hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (non-MHLH). After multivariable adjustment, compared with the highest tertile of FIB, the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of survival for tertile 2 and tertile 1 were 1.06 (0.90–1.24) and 0.84 (0.71–0.98), respectively. The restricted cubic spline curve displayed a nonlinear and inverse relationship between FIB and mortality. Furthermore, the threshold effect analysis demonstrated that the inflection point for the curve was at an FIB level of 1.76 g/L. The HRs (95% CIs) for survival were 0.68 (0.55–0.83) and 1.08 (0.96–1.21) on the left and right side of the inflection point, respectively. Conclusions These results suggest that plasma fibrinogen is nonlinearly and inversely associated with the risk of mortality in adult secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis.


BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. e025124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takako Fujita ◽  
Akira Babazono ◽  
Yumi Harano ◽  
Peng Jiang

ObjectiveWe sought to examine the effect of smoking cessation on subsequent development of depressive disorders.DesignThis was a retrospective cohort study.MethodsWe used administrative claim and health check data from fiscal years 2010 to 2014, obtained from the largest health insurance association in Fukuoka, Japan. Study participants were between 30 and 69 years old. The end-point outcome was incidence of depressive disorders. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models were conducted. The evaluated potential confounders were sex, age, standard monthly income and psychiatric medical history.ResultsThe final number of participants was 87 255, with 7841 in the smoking cessation group and 79 414 in the smoking group. The result of survival analysis showed no significant difference in depressive disorders between the two groups. The results of Cox proportional hazards models showed no significant difference by multivariate analysis between participants, including users of smoking cessation medication (HR 1.04, 95% Cl 0.89 to 1.22) and excluding medication use (HR 0.97, 95% Cl 0.82 to 1.15).ConclusionsThe present study showed that there were no significant differences with respect to having depressive disorders between smoking cessation and smoking groups. We also showed that smoking cessation was not related to incidence of depressive disorders among participants, including and excluding users of smoking cessation medication, after adjusting for potential confounders. Although the results have some limitations because of the nature of the study design, our findings will provide helpful information to smokers, health professionals and policy makers for improving smoking cessation.


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 2728-2728
Author(s):  
Tingting Shao ◽  
Yuan Feng ◽  
Ninghan Zhang ◽  
Rong Wang ◽  
Ting Pan ◽  
...  

Background: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an aggressive hematological disease. Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (Allo-HSCT) and chemotherapy are major treatment regimens for AML. However, prognostic markers cannot guide the decision for a specific treatment, as they are related with a various prognosis regardless of the given treatment. HOXA (homeobox A) genes cluster could promote tumor survival, proliferation, invasion, and increase the resistance of AML. The aim of this study was to screen potential miRNAs (microRNAs) that would target HOXA genes, and evaluate the utility of miRNAs in AML, help patients choose a better treatment between chemotherapy and allo-HCST. Methods: Clinical data and RNA-Seq expression data of selected cases were provided by The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Genome-wide screening was performed to identify miRNA in a heterogeneous AML population. Univariable Cox proportional hazards models and Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were employed to identify whether OS and EFS would be affected by other variables. Results: In this study, totally 162 AML patients were recruited. All patients were firstly divided into the chemotherapy and allo-HSCT groups. Subsequently, according to median values of miR-340, patients were divided into miR-340high and miR-340low expressers, respectively. In chemotherapy group, no difference was found in clinical characteristics, such as the median age, FAB subtypes, karyotypes and genes mutation between miR-340high and miR-340low expressers. However, miR-340low expressers often accompanied with high first relapse rate or death rate in one year than high expressers (P=0.012; 82.2% vs 55.6%). To identify the independent prognostic role of miR-340 in chemotherapy group patients, Univariable and Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were performed. We found that miR-340lowpatients showed shorter OS (P=0.0005; 5-year OS, 35.6% vs. 5.4%) and EFS (P=0.0005) compared with high expressers. In multivariable analysis, miR-340low patients showed reduced OS (P=0.004; HR: 2.07) and EFS (P=0.01; HR: 1.909) after adjusting other co-variates, such as age, WBC count and several genes mutation in chemotherapy group. Therefore, low miR-340 amounts could be an independent adverse bio-marker in AML patients undergoing chemotherapy. However, in the allo-HSCT group, miR-340 expression level was not associated with outcome in AML patients. To further explore the potential of allo-HSCT in overcoming the adverse characteristics of low miR-340 amounts, the whole 162 patients were regrouped into miR-340low and miR-340high groups. Then patients were divided into chemotherapy and allo-HSCT subgroups. Subgroup analysis revealed that miR-340low patients had significantly longer OS (P<0.0001; HR: 0.316; 95%CI: 0.167-0.459) and EFS (P=0.002; HR: 0.391; 95%CI: 0.231-0.622) in allo-HSCT subgroup than in chemotherapy subgroup (Figure 1). However, in cases highly expressing miR-340, no difference in survival events was detected between the two treatment subgroups. These findings indicated, allo-HSCT may overcome the adverse prognostic effects of low mir-340 expression. Therefore, for low miR-340 cases, early allo-HSCT may be a better option. To explore underlying biological functions of miR-340, we examined gene expression signatures related to the miR-340 expression in AML patients. We observed 135 genes expression levels that associated with miR-340 expression, with 61 and 74 showing positive and negative correlations, respectively. Gene Ontology showed that these genes involved in cellular and developmental processes, transcription regulation, immune system process, cell apoptosis and proliferation, myeloid cell differentiation and hematopoietic organ development. Furthermore, miR-340 expression was negatively correlated with HOXA and HOXB cluster levels. Strikingly, HOXA10, HOXB2, MEIS1 and PRDM16 were predicted miR-340 targets according to in silico analysis. The results hint a prospective regulatory mechanism that links miR-340 to HOXA genes associated with AML. Conclusions: Our data indicate that decreased miR-340 expression predicts an adverse prognosis and allo-HSCT may overcome the potential adverse characteristics of low miR-340 expression. Therefore, lower miR-340 cases should be strongly considered for early allo-HSCT. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4048-4048
Author(s):  
Y. Yeh ◽  
Q. Cai ◽  
J. Chao ◽  
M. Russell

4048 Background: NCCN guidelines recommend assessment of =12 lymph nodes (LN) to improve accuracy in colorectal cancer (CRC) staging. Previous studies have used various cut-points to assess the relationship between the number of LN sampled and survival. The association between NCCN guideline-compliant nodal sampling and survival is assessed, while controlling for other risk factors. Methods: We selected 145,485 adult patients newly diagnosed with stage II or III from SEER during 1990–2003. Kaplan-Meier curves were compared using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to determine the effect of sampling ≥ 12 LN on survival. Results: Median patient follow-up was 5.7 years. The table shows overall survival rates in CRC patients with < 12 versus =12 LN assessed: After adjusting for age, sex, tumor size and grade, sampling ≥ 12 LN was independently associated with improved survival. For patients with =12 versus <12 LN assessed, survival increased by 13% for stage IIa [HR=0.75; 95%CI 0.72–0.78; p< .001], 16% for stage IIb [HR=0.69; 95%CI 0.67- 0.71; p< .001], 12% for stage IIIb [HR=0.75; 95%CI 0.72–0.77], and 10% for stage IIIc [HR=0.85, 95%CI 0.81–0.89]. The association was not statistically significant for stage IIIa patients. Conclusion: Consistent with previous reports, this analysis found that optimal nodal sampling increased survival across stage II and III, specifically when ≥ 12 LN are sampled and when controlling for other risk factors. Furthermore, the results underscore the need for adhering to the NCCN guidelines. The lack of a statistically significant association in stage IIIa patients may be due to small cohort size. [Table: see text] [Table: see text]


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