scholarly journals Survival Analysis and Prediction Model for Pulmonary Sarcomatoid Carcinoma Based on SEER Database

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingjing Chen ◽  
Qiao Yang ◽  
Zihan Xu ◽  
Bangyu Luo ◽  
Feng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Clinical Stage ◽  
Sarcomatoid Carcinoma ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Pulmonary Sarcomatoid Carcinoma ◽  
Testing Set

ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the incidence of the pulmonary sarcomatoid carcinoma (PSC), to compare the clinical characteristics and overall survival (OS) of patients with PSC and those with other non-small-cell lung cancer (oNSCLC), so as to analyze the factors affecting the OS of patients with PSC and construct a nomogram prediction model.MethodsData of patients with PSC and those with oNSCLC diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were collected. The age-adjusted incidence of PSC was calculated. The characteristics of patients with PSC and those with oNSCLC were compared, then the patients were matched 1:2 for further survival analysis. Patients with PSC were randomly divided into training set and testing set with a ratio of 7:3. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the covariates associated with the OS. Significant covariates were used to construct the nomogram, and the C-index was calculated to measure the discrimination ability. The accuracy of the nomogram was compared with the tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) clinical stage, and the corresponding area under the curve was achieved.ResultsA total of 1049 patients with PSC were enrolled, the incidence of PSC was slowly decreased from 0.120/100,000 in 2004 to 0.092/100,000 in 2015. Before PSM, 793 PSC patients and 191356 oNSCLC patients were identified, the proportion of male, younger patients (<65 years), grade IV, TNM clinical stage IV was higher in the PSC. The patients with PSC had significantly poorer OS compared with those with oNSCLC. After PSM, PSC still had an extremely inferior prognosis. Age, sex, TNM clinical stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery were independent factors for OS. Next, a nomogram was established based on these factors, and the C-indexs were 0.775 and 0.790 for the training and testing set, respectively. Moreover, the nomogram model indicated a more comprehensive and accurate prediction than the TNM clinical stage.ConclusionsThe incidence of PSC was slowly decreased. PSC had a significantly poor prognosis compared with oNSCLC. The nomogram constructed in this study accurately predicted the prognosis of PSC, performed better than the TNM clinical stage.

scholarly journals Adapting the Default Weighted Survival Analysis Modelling Approach to Model IFRS 9 LGD

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Morne Joubert ◽  
Tanja Verster ◽  
Helgard Raubenheimer ◽  
Willem D. Schutte
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Survival Curve ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Ifrs 9

Survival analysis is one of the techniques that could be used to predict loss given default (LGD) for regulatory capital (Basel) purposes. When using survival analysis to model LGD, a proposed methodology is the default weighted survival analysis (DWSA) method. This paper is aimed at adapting the DWSA method (used to model Basel LGD) to estimate the LGD for International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 impairment requirements. The DWSA methodology allows for over recoveries, default weighting and negative cashflows. For IFRS 9, this methodology should be adapted, as the estimated LGD is a function of in the expected credit losses (ECL). Our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology makes use of survival analysis to estimate the LGD. The Cox proportional hazards model allows for a baseline survival curve to be adjusted to produce survival curves for different segments of the portfolio. The forward-looking LGD values are adjusted for different macro-economic scenarios and the ECL is calculated for each scenario. These ECL values are probability weighted to produce a final ECL estimate. We illustrate our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology and ECL estimation on a dataset from a retail portfolio of a South African bank.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽  
Krzysztof Dmytrów
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

scholarly journals Survival Analysis of COVID-19 on Democracy with Cox Proportional Hazards Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Deepika Dilip
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Survival Analysis ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Hazards Model

Abstract Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has struck us in many ways and we observed that China and South Korea found an effective measure to contain the virus. Conversely, the United States and the European countries are struggling to fight the virus. China is not considered a democracy and South Korea is less democratic than the United States. Therefore, we want to explore the association between the deaths of COVID-19 and democracy. Methods: We collected COVID-19 deaths data for each country from the Johns Hopkins University website and democracy indices of 2018 from the Economist Intelligence Unit website in May 2020. Then we conducted a survival analysis, regarding each country as a subject, with the Cox Proportional Hazards Model, adjusting for other selected variables. Result: The result showed that the association between democracy and deaths of COVID-19 was significant (P=0.04), adjusting for other covariates. Conclusion: In conclusion, less democratic governments performed better in containing the virus and controlling the number of deaths.

A comparison of two intrauterine antibiotic treatments for endometritis in dairy cows by means of survival analysis

2001 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 417-421
Author(s):  
S.H. Loeffler ◽  
A.C. de Zeeuw
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Positive Control ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Equal Treatment ◽  
Water Suspension ◽  
Oil In Water ◽  
Early Late

AbstractA prospective cohort study was designed to compare the effects of two different intrauterine antibiotic treatments for endometritis on fertility in a multi-farm trial during a 4 year-period. Product A contained 1.5 million I.E. of Procaine Penicilline-G and 500 mg of Neomycine sulfate in 20 ml of an oil in water suspension with a gas-driven applicator (Ubrocelan®, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Germany) and product B (positive control) contained 2g of Oxytetracycline and 500.000 I.E. Colistine in a 20 ml oil in water suspension (Colicycline® , A. U. V., Cuyk, The Netherlands). Diagnosis was by field veterinarians during routine monthly visits. Pyometra, vaginitis, toxic endometritis and post-insemination uterine treatments were excluded from the study. Only cases of non-toxic endometritis prior to first insemination in the period from 1- 150 days after calving were included. Cows were allocated to treatment group based on ear tag number (even/uneven) at the time of diagnosis by the veterinarian. Cows received only a single treatment. Cases were coded as censored at 150 days if not yet inseminated and at 180 days if not yet pregnant. A total of 623 cases of endometritis in first or later parity cows on 13 farms were used in the analysis. The distribution of treatments among farms was unequal ( chi-square = 0.167) , but no farm had more than 70% of one treatment and farm was included as a correction factorin all models. A larger number of controls than cases also had no effect on study outcome. The effect oftreament on the interval (days) from from treatment to conception or censoring was analyzed with a Cox proportional hazards model. Other variables included in the models were season, parity, herd and time of treatment (late/early) with respect to calving. There was no effect of treatment on the number of days to breeding or days open. Early/late ( cutoff = 40 days) endometritis was a significant factor for the interval from treatment to first insemination and conception rate to first breeding. Early/late metritis, however, was not a factor for the interval from treatment to pregnancy. This study suggests that there is an equal treatment efficacy for intrauterine therapy of endometritis between the two products tested. The authors discuss the growing trend away from intrauterine treatments and the suitability of survival analysis techniques for multi-farm field studies of this type.

Predicting self-reported depression after the onset of multiple sclerosis using genetic and non-genetic factors

2020 ◽  
pp. 135245852092107
Author(s):  
Frances M Wang ◽  
Mary F Davis ◽  
Farren BS Briggs
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Genetic Risk Score ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Depression Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
History Of Depression

Background: Persons with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) are disproportionately burdened by depression compared to the general population. While several factors associated with depression and depression severity in PwMS have been identified, a prediction model for depression risk has not been developed. In addition, it is unknown if depression-related genetic variants, including Apolipoprotein E ( APOE), would be informative for predicting depression in PwMS. Objective: To develop a depression prediction model for PwMS who did not have a history of depression prior MS onset. Methods: The study population included 917 non-Hispanic white PwMS. An optimized multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for time to depression was generated using non-genetic variables, to which APOE and a depression-related genetic risk score were included. Results: Having a mother who had a history of depression, having obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity and other physical disorders at MS onset, and affect-related symptoms at MS onset predicted depression risk (hazards ratios (HRs): 1.6–2.3). Genetic variables improved the prediction model’s performance. APOE ε4/ε4 and ε2/x conferred increased (HR = 2.5, p = 0.026) and decreased (HR = 0.65, p = 0.046) depression risk, respectively. Conclusion: We present a prediction model aligned with The Precision Medicine Initiative, which integrates genetic and non-genetic predictors to inform depression risk stratification after MS onset.

scholarly journals Survival Analysis for the Adjustment Phase Following Investment in Swiss Dairy Sheds

Agriculture ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 238
Author(s):  
Kramer ◽  
Schorr ◽  
Doluschitz ◽  
Lips
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Equity Capital ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Farm Accountancy Data Network

We analysed the adjustment phase following a dairy shed investment. On the basis of farm observations from both the Swiss Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) and a database of government-supported investments from 2003 through 2014, we focused on the imputed profit, the farm income minus opportunity costs for family labour and family capital. After investment, the analysed farms needed three years to return to the same profit level as that before the investment (median value). A Cox proportional-hazards model (survival analysis) showed that the probability of reattaining the imputed profit increased with equity capital. A reduction of the probability was related to a high imputed profit, a high off-farm income, high expenses for purchased animals and, in particular, a greater use of family labour before the investment. We conclude that the use of family labour after investment should be addressed more thoroughly during the planning process prior to an investment.

Late gastrointestinal (GI) complications in patients with stage I-II testicular seminoma treated with radiotherapy (RT).

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4595-4595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Leigh Hallemeier ◽  
Brian Davis ◽  
Thomas Michael Pisansky ◽  
Richard Choo
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Clinical Stage ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Gi Tract ◽  
Curative Intent ◽  
Testicular Seminoma ◽  
Late Morbidity

4595 Background: For stage I-II testicular seminoma, RT is highly effective at eradicating disease in the abdominopelvic lymph nodes, but results in unnecessary exposure to normal tissues including the GI tract. The purpose of this study was to define the incidence and risk factors for late GI complications in this patient population. Methods: A retrospective review was performed of 251 patients with stage I-II testicular seminoma treated with curative intent RT at our institution from 1974-2009. All patients underwent orchiectomy and postoperative external beam RT to the involved and/or at-risk nodal basins. Potential late GI complications that were assessed included endoscopically-confirmed gastric or duodenal ulceration, small bowel obstruction (SBO), and biopsy-confirmed malignancy of the GI tract. Risks were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) technique and univariate/multivariate analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Median age at diagnosis was 36 years (range 18 – 80). Clinical stage was I (n=199) or II (n=52). Median abdominopelvic RT dose was 26 Gy (interquartile range 25 – 30). Median follow-up was 15 years (range 0.1 – 38). KM estimates for any GI complication (ulcer, SBO, or GI malignancy) at 10, 20, and 30 years were 7, 10 and 24%, respectively. Four patients died as result of a GI complication. KM estimates for ulcer at 10, 20, and 30 years were 4, 7, and 9%, respectively. Age at RT (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.00 – 1.10, p=0.03) and RT total dose (per Gy, HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09 – 1.31, p<0.01) were associated with risk of ulcer. KM estimates for SBO at 10, 20, and 30 years were 2%, 2%, and 3%, respectively. History of inflammatory bowel disease was associated with risk of SBO (HR 43, 95% CI 7-325, p<0.01). KM estimates for GI malignancy at 10, 20, and 30 years were 0.5, 3 and 16%, respectively. Age at RT was associated with risk of GI malignancy (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p=0.01). Conclusions: In patients with stage I-II testicular seminoma treated with RT, late GI complications were a relatively uncommon, but clinically significant source of late morbidity. Use of low dose, limited field, and/or proton RT may reduce these risks.

scholarly journals Nuclear p27 Expression Confers a Favorable Outcome for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 925-932 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Liu ◽  
Yufei Long ◽  
Yajie Zhang ◽  
Wei Huang ◽  
Xiaobin Long ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Kinase Inhibitor ◽  
Clinical Stage ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Clinicopathologic Characteristics ◽  
Nuclear Expression

Objective. The purpose of the present study is to explore the correlation between nuclear expression of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1B (p27) and clinicopathologic features in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), including patient survival.Methods. Immunohistochemistry was used to examine the expression of p27 in 130 primary NPC tissues. The relationship between the levels of p27 expression and clinicopathologic characteristics was analyzed. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. The significance of various survival variables was analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards model.Results. p27 was expressed in both nuclear and cytoplasmic compartments. Nuclear expression of p27 was inversely correlated with T classification and clinical stage. Patients with nuclear p27 expression had better overall survival rates than those without nuclear expression of p27. Further, we observed that nuclear expression of p27 was positively associated with survival time of NPC patients not only in N0-1 and M0 classifications but also in radiotherapy and chemotherapy treatment groups. Finally, we found that nuclear expression of p27 was not an independent prognostic factor for patients with NPC.Conclusions. Our findings hint that nuclear expression of p27 is a potentially favorable factor in the progression and prognosis of NPC.

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