scholarly journals A Method for Estimating the Number of Infections From the Reported Number of Deaths

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Åke Brännström ◽  
Henrik Sjödin ◽  
Joacim Rocklöv
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
True Number ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Case Data ◽  
Significant Mortality

At the outset of an epidemic, available case data typically underestimate the total number of infections due to insufficient testing, potentially hampering public responses. Here, we present a method for statistically estimating the true number of cases with confidence intervals from the reported number of deaths and estimates of the infection fatality ratio; assuming that the time from infection to death follows a known distribution. While the method is applicable to any epidemic with a significant mortality rate, we exemplify the method by applying it to COVID-19. Our findings indicate that the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in March 2020 was likely to be at least one order of magnitude higher than the reported cases, with the degree of underestimation among the countries considered being particularly high in the United Kingdom.

Bowel obstruction

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 484-489
Author(s):  
Peter John Webster
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Bowel Obstruction ◽  
Secondary Care ◽  
Common Reason ◽  
Emergency Laparotomy ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Significant Mortality

Bowel obstruction is a surgical emergency and is the most common reason for undergoing emergency laparotomy within the United Kingdom. It has a diverse range of aetiologies with a significant mortality rate and high rates of morbidity amongst survivors. Prompt identification and management of the condition are essential for favourable outcomes. This article will focus on the causes of bowel obstruction in adults, assessment in primary care and subsequent management in secondary care.

scholarly journals Continuing high levels of HIV diagnoses in men who have sex with men in the United Kingdom

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3-4
Author(s):  
B Rice ◽  
A Nardone ◽  
N Gill ◽  
V Delpech
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Reporting Delays ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Almost All

The latest HIV data for 2007 has recently been published for the United Kingdom (UK). During the year, an estimated 6,840 (95% confidence intervals 6,600-7,050) persons (adjusted for reporting delays) were newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK. This represents a 12% decline from a peak of new HIV diagnoses reported in 2005 (7,800). Almost all this decline in new HIV diagnoses was in HIV-infected heterosexuals from sub-Saharan Africa who were probably infected in their country of origin.

scholarly journals Phylogenetic Analysis of Varicella-Zoster Virus: Evidence of Intercontinental Spread of Genotypes and Recombination

2002 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
pp. 1971-1979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winsome Barrett Muir ◽  
Richard Nichols ◽  
Judith Breuer
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analysis ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Varicella Zoster Virus ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Varicella Zoster ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Simplex Virus

ABSTRACT A heteroduplex mobility assay was used to identify variants of varicella-zoster virus circulating in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Within the United Kingdom, 58 segregating sites were found out of the 23,266 examined (0.25%), and nucleotide diversity was estimated to be 0.00063. These are an order of magnitude smaller than comparable estimates from herpes simplex virus type 1. Sixteen substitutions were nonsynonymous, the majority of which were clustered within surface-expressed proteins. Extensive genetic correlation between widely spaced sites indicated that recombination has been rare. Phylogenetic analysis of varicella-zoster viruses from four continents distinguished at least three major genetic clades. Most geographical regions contained only one of these three strains, apart from the United Kingdom and Brazil, where two or more strains were found. There was minimal genetic differentiation (one or fewer substitutions in 1,895 bases surveyed) between the samples collected from Africa (Guinea Bissau, Zambia) and the Indian subcontinent (Bangladesh, South India), suggesting recent rapid spread and/or low mutation rates. The geographic pattern of strain distribution would favor a major influence of the former. The genetic uniformity of most virus populations makes recombination difficult to detect. However, at least one probable recombinant between two of the major strains was found among the samples originating from Brazil, where mixtures of genotypes co-occur.

scholarly journals Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparison of Strategies in Six Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiqian Chen ◽  
Leiyu Shi ◽  
Yuyao Zhang ◽  
Xiaohan Wang ◽  
Jun Jiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
South Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
And Control ◽  
Close Contacts

Objective: This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of containment strategies and mitigation strategies to provide a reference for controlling the ongoing global spread of the pandemic.Methods: We extracted publicly available data from various official websites between January 1 and December 31, 2020, summarized the strategies implemented in China, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, and assessed the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures adopted by these countries with the daily new cases and mortality rate per 100,000 population.Results: China, South Korea, and Singapore adopted containment strategies, which maintained a proactive approach by identifying and managing cases, tracking and isolating close contacts. China and Singapore had a similar epidemic curve and the new daily cases. As of December 31, 2020, the new daily cases of China and Singapore were below 100 with the mortality rates per 100,000 population of 0.3 and 0.5, respectively. But the new daily case of South Korea was as high as 1,029, with a mortality rate per 100,000 population of 1.8. In contrast, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France responded with mitigation strategies that focus on treating severe cases and those with underlying conditions. They had similar epidemic curves and mortality rates per 100,000 population. The United States had up to 234,133 new confirmed cases per day, and the mortality rate per 100,000 population was 107, while the United Kingdom had 56,029 new confirmed cases per day and the mortality rate per 100,000 population was 108, and France had 20,042 new cases per day, with a mortality rate per 100,000 population of 99.Conclusions: China, Korea, and Singapore, which implemented strict containment measures, had significant outbreak control. Meanwhile, the successful practices in China, Singapore, and South Korea show that the containment strategies were practices that work especially at the individual level identifying and managing the infected patients and their close contacts. In the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, which implemented the mitigation policies, the effect of epidemic prevention and control was not significant that the epidemic continued or even increased epidemic relatively quickly.

scholarly journals United Kingdom 30-day mortality rates after surgery for pediatric central nervous system tumors

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 227-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roddy O'Kane ◽  
Ryan Mathew ◽  
Tom Kenny ◽  
Charles Stiller ◽  
Paul Chumas
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Operative Mortality ◽  
Contemporary Literature ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Cns Tumors ◽  
Tumor Surgery ◽  
Cns Tumor ◽  
The United Kingdom

Object In an increasing culture of medical accountability, 30-day operative mortality rates remain one of the most objective measurements reported for the surgical field. The authors report population-based 30-day postoperative mortality rates among children who had undergone CNS tumor surgery in the United Kingdom. Methods To determine overall 30-day operative mortality rates, the authors analyzed the National Registry of Childhood Tumors for CNS tumors for the period 2004–2007. The operative mortality rate for each tumor category was derived. In addition, comparison was made with the 30-day operative mortality rates after CNS tumor surgery reported in the contemporary literature. Finally, by use of a funnel plot, institutional performance for 30-day operative mortality was compared for all units across the United Kingdom. Results The overall 30-day operative mortality rate for children undergoing CNS tumor surgery in the United Kingdom during the study period was 2.7%. When only malignant CNS tumors were analyzed, the rate increased to 3.5%. One third of the deaths occurred after discharge from the hospital in which the surgery had been performed. The highest 30-day operative mortality rate (19%) was for patients with choroid plexus carcinomas. A total of 20 institutions performed CNS tumor surgery during the study period. Rates for all institutions fell within 2 SDs. No trend associating operative mortality rates and institutional volume was found. In comparison, review of the contemporary literature suggests that the postoperative mortality rate should be approximately 1%. Conclusions The authors believe this to be the first report of national 30-day surgical mortality rates specifically for children with CNS tumors. The study raises questions about the 30-day mortality rate among children undergoing surgery for CNS tumors. International consensus should be reached on a minimum data set for outcomes and should include 30-day operative mortality rates.

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