scholarly journals Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic With Multi-Population and Control Strategies in the United States

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deshun Sun ◽  
Xiaojun Long ◽  
Jingxiang Liu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
And Control ◽  
Sensitive Parameters

As of January 19, 2021, the cumulative number of people infected with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the United States has reached 24,433,486, and the number is still rising. The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has not only affected the development of the global economy but also seriously threatened the lives and health of human beings around the world. According to the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in the population, this study established a theoretical differential equation mathematical model, estimated model parameters through epidemiological data, obtained accurate mathematical models, and adopted global sensitivity analysis methods to screen sensitive parameters that significantly affect the development of the epidemic. Based on the established precise mathematical model, we calculate the basic reproductive number of the epidemic, evaluate the transmission capacity of the COVID-19 epidemic, and predict the development trend of the epidemic. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters and finding sensitive parameters, we can provide effective control strategies for epidemic prevention and control. After appropriate modifications, the model can also be used for mathematical modeling of epidemics in other countries or other infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Modelling the effect of lockdown on COVID-19 pandemic in 22 countries and cities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Li ◽  
Yan Wu ◽  
Ximei Wang ◽  
Caihong Guo ◽  
Lianwen Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
The United States ◽  
Inhibitory Effect ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Short Time

Abstract Backgrounds: COVID-19 is currently spreading around the world, and the cumulative number of cases worldwide exceeded 5 million on 23 May 2020 (10:00 GMT+2). At present, many countries or cities have implemented lockdown measures. This study evaluated the inhibitory effect of lockdown measures on the pandemic by the use of lockdown or similar lockdown in 22 countries or cities. Methods: An SEIQR epidemiological model was developed to capture the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. With the data related to COVID-19 from 22 countries or cities, the optimal parameters of the model were estimated, respectively.Results: The average basic reproduction numbers of 22 countries or cities were between 1.5286-3.8067. And Russia Federation, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the United States of New York and the United States of New Jersey were hardest hit by COVID-19. Conclusion: Although the pandemic has not been fundamentally controlled for a short time after lockdown, lockdown was proved to be an extremely effective control measure, which significantly scaled the number of patients down, thereby reduced the harmfulness of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Cost-Effective Analysis of Control Strategies to Reduce the Prevalence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Based on a Mathematical Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Dibyendu Biswas ◽  
Suman Dolai ◽  
Jahangir Chowdhury ◽  
Priti Roy ◽  
Ellina Grigorieva
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Cutaneous Leishmaniasis ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Sand Fly ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
And Control

Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical vector-borne epidemic disease, and its transmission is a complex process. Zoonotic transmission to humans or animals occurs through the bites of female Phlebotominae sand flies. Here, reservoir is considered as a major source of endemic pathogen pool for disease outbreak, and the role of more than one reservoir animal becomes indispensable. To study the role of the reservoir animals on disease dynamics, a mathematical model was constructed consisting of susceptible and infected populations of humans and two types of reservoir (animal) and vector populations, respectively. Our aim is to prevent the disease by applying a control theoretic approach, when more than one type of reservoir animal exists in the region. We use drugs like sodium stibogluconate and meglumine antimoniate to control the disease for humans and spray insecticide to control the sand fly population. Similarly, drugs are applied for infected reservoir animals of Types A and B. We calculated the cost-effectiveness of all possible combinations of the intervention and control policies. One of our findings is that the most cost-effective case for Leishmania control is the spray of insecticides for infected sand fly vector. Alternate strategic cases were compared to address the critical shortcomings of single strategic cases, and a range of control strategies were estimated for effective control and economical benefit of the overall control strategy. Our findings provide the most innovative techniques available for application to the successful eradication of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the future.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Different Types of Face Masks To Limit The Spread of SARS-CoV-2 – A Modeling Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian M. Gurbaxani ◽  
Andrew N. Hill ◽  
Prabasaj Paul ◽  
Pragati V. Prasad ◽  
Rachel B. Slayton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Source Control ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Medical Procedure ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Protection Efficacy ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract We updated a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. When used at 25 already-observed population rates of 80% for those ≥65 years and 60% for those <65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6-month timeline in the model, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.5. If cloth or medical procedure masks’ source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could be reduced to an effective reproductive number ≤ 1.0, and from 6.0 to 2.3 for a variant of concern similar to delta (B.1.617.2).

When Temporal Orbits Collide: Embodied Trans Temporalities in U.S. Prisons

Somatechnics ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rae Rosenberg
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Prison Industrial Complex ◽  
Trans Women ◽  
And Control

This paper explores trans temporalities through the experiences of incarcerated trans feminine persons in the United States. The Prison Industrial Complex (PIC) has received increased attention for its disproportionate containment of trans feminine persons, notably trans women of colour. As a system of domination and control, the PIC uses disciplinary and heteronormative time to dominate the bodies and identities of transgender prisoners by limiting the ways in which they can express and experience their identified and embodied genders. By analyzing three case studies from my research with incarcerated trans feminine persons, this paper illustrates how temporality is complexly woven through trans feminine prisoners' experiences of transitioning in the PIC. For incarcerated trans feminine persons, the interruption, refusal, or permission of transitioning in the PIC invites several gendered pasts into a body's present and places these temporalities in conversation with varying futures as the body's potential. Analyzing trans temporalities reveals time as layered through gender, inviting multiple pasts and futures to circulate around and through the body's present in ways that can be both harmful to, and necessary for, the assertion and survival of trans feminine identities in the PIC.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INTERNAL CONTROL FOR THE NATIONAL LAND SYSTEM OF THE USA

1994 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-213
Author(s):  
Michael P. Schoderbek
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Internal Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Record Keeping ◽  
Governmental Accounting ◽  
Land System ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Control

This paper examines the early accounting practices that were used to administer the United States' national land system. These practices are of significance because they provide insights on early governmental accounting and they facilitated an orderly settlement of the western territories. The analysis focuses on the record-keeping and control practices that were developed to meet the provisions of the Land Act of 1800 and to account for land office transactions. These accounting procedures were extracted from the correspondence between the Department of the Treasury and the various land officers.

scholarly journals Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingyi Yang ◽  
Angkana T. Huang ◽  
Bernardo Garcia-Carreras ◽  
William E. Hart ◽  
Andrea Staid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Home Visiting ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
County Level ◽  
Metapopulation Model ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median Reff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

scholarly journals Decline in Marriage Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 237802312098032
Author(s):  
Brandon G. Wagner ◽  
Kate H. Choi ◽  
Philip N. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Know How ◽  
The Social ◽  
Reporting Delays ◽  
Social Upheaval ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Do So

In the social upheaval arising from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, we do not yet know how union formation, particularly marriage, has been affected. Using administration records—marriage certificates and applications—gathered from settings representing a variety of COVID-19 experiences in the United States, the authors compare counts of recorded marriages in 2020 against those from the same period in 2019. There is a dramatic decrease in year-to-date cumulative marriages in 2020 compared with 2019 in each case. Similar patterns are observed for the Seattle metropolitan area when analyzing the cumulative number of marriage applications, a leading indicator of marriages in the near future. Year-to-date declines in marriage are unlikely to be due solely to closure of government agencies that administer marriage certification or reporting delays. Together, these findings suggest that marriage has declined during the COVID-19 outbreak and may continue to do so, at least in the short term.

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