scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis and visualisation of the anthrax epidemic situation in livestock in Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov ◽  
Yersyn Y. Mukhanbetkaliyev ◽  
Fedor I. Korennoy ◽  
Bolat Sh. Karatayev ◽  
Aizada A. Mukhanbetkaliyeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Small Ruminants ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Historical Periods

An analysis of the anthrax epidemic situation among livestock animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan over the period 1933-2016 is presented. During this time, 4,064 anthrax outbreaks (mainly in cattle, small ruminants, pigs and horses) were recorded. They fall into five historical periods of increase and decrease in the annual anthrax incidence (1933-1953; 1954-1968; 1969-1983; 1984- 2001; and 2002-2016), which has been associated with changes in economic activity and veterinary surveillance. To evaluate the temporal trends of incidence variation for each of these time periods, the following methods were applied: i) spatio-temporal analysis using a space-time cube to assess the presence of hotspots (i.e., areas of outbreak clustering) and the trends of their emergence over time; and ii) a linear regression model that was used to evaluate the annual numbers of outbreaks as a function of time. The results show increasing trends during the first two periods followed by a decreasing trend up to now. The peak years of anthrax outbreaks occurred in 1965-1968 but outbreaks still continue with an average annual number of outbreaks of 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.8). The space-time analysis approach enabled visualisation of areas with statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends of outbreak clustering providing a practical opportunity to inform decision-makers and allowing the veterinary services to concentrate their efforts on monitoring the possible risk factors in the identified locations.

scholarly journals The First Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreak in Thailand (2021): Epidemiological Features and Spatio-Temporal Analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orapun Arjkumpa ◽  
Minta Suwannaboon ◽  
Manoch Boonrod ◽  
Issara Punyawan ◽  
Supawadee Liangchaisiri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Cattle Farms

The first outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in Thailand was reported in March 2021, but information on the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak is very limited. The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemiological features of LSD outbreaks and to identify the outbreak spatio-temporal clusters. The LSD-affected farms located in Roi Et province were investigated by veterinary authorities under the outbreak response program. A designed questionnaire was used to obtain the data. Space-time permutation (STP) and Poisson space-time (Poisson ST) models were used to detect areas of high LSD incidence. The authorities identified 293 LSD outbreak farms located in four different districts during the period of March and the first week of April 2021. The overall morbidity and mortality of the affected cattle were 40.5 and 1.2%, respectively. The STP defined seven statistically significant clusters whereas only one cluster was identified by the Poisson ST model. Most of the clusters (n = 6) from the STP had a radius <7 km, and the number of LSD cases in those clusters varied in range of 3–51. On the other hand, the most likely cluster from the Poisson ST included LSD cases (n = 361) from 198 cattle farms with a radius of 17.07 km. This is the first report to provide an epidemiological overview and determine spatio-temporal clusters of the first LSD outbreak in cattle farms in Thailand. The findings from this study may serve as a baseline information for future epidemiological studies and support authorities to establish effective control programs for LSD in Thailand.

scholarly journals Nepal, a multi-hazard risk country: Spatio-temporal analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 145-152
Author(s):  
Ganesh Kumar Jimee ◽  
Kimiro Meguro ◽  
Amod Mani Dixit
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Tectonic Processes ◽  
Active Tectonic ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Complex Geology

Nepal, though covers small area of the earth, exposes complex geology with active tectonic processes, high peaks, sloppy terrain and climatic variation. Combination of such geo-physical and climatic conditions with existing poor socio-economic conditions, unplanned settlements, rapidly increasing population and low level of awareness has put the country in highest risk to multi-hazard events. Fires, floods, landslides and epidemics are the most frequent hazard events, which have cumulatively caused a significant loss of lives and property every year. However, due to diversity in physiographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions within the country, the type, frequency and degree of the impact of such events differs in different places. During the period of 46 years (1971-2016), an average of 2 events have been occurred causing 3 deaths/missing every day. Disaster events occurred most frequently during the months of April, July and August, while relatively lesser number of events have been reported during January, November and December. However, earthquakes have been reported in different months, regardless with the season. This paper is an effort to analyse the spatial distribution and temporal variation of disaster events in Nepal. Further it has drawn a trend of disasters occurrence in Nepal, which will help the decision makers and other stakeholders for formulating Disaster Risk Management (DRM) plan and policies on one hand and heighten citizens’ awareness of against disasters on the other.

scholarly journals Mapping Evapotranspiration, Vegetation and Precipitation Trends in the Catchment of the Shrinking Lake Poopó

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Torres-Batlló ◽  
Belén Martí-Cardona ◽  
Ramiro Pillco-Zolá
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Water Losses ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
General Decline ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Lake Poopó is located in the Andean Mountain Range Plateau or Altiplano. A general decline in the lake water level has been observed in the last two decades, coinciding roughly with an intensification of agriculture exploitation, such as quinoa crops. Several factors have been linked with the shrinkage of the lake, including climate change, increased irrigation, mining extraction and population growth. Being an endorheic catchment, evapotranspiration (ET) losses are expected to be the main water output mechanism and previous studies demonstrated ET increases using Earth observation (EO) data. In this study, we seek to build upon these earlier findings by analyzing an ET time series dataset of higher spatial and temporal resolution, in conjunction with land cover and precipitation data. More specifically, we performed a spatio-temporal analysis, focusing on wet and dry periods, that showed that ET changes occur primarily in the wet period, while the dry period is approximately stationary. An analysis of vegetation trends performed using 500 MODIS vegetation index products (NDVI) also showed an overall increasing trend during the wet period. Analysis of NDVI and ET across land cover types showed that only croplands had experienced an increase in NDVI and ET losses, while natural covers showed either constant or decreasing NDVI trends together with increases in ET. The larger increase in vegetation and ET losses over agricultural regions, strongly suggests that cropping practices exacerbated water losses in these areas. This quantification provides essential information for the sustainable planning of water resources and land uses in the catchment. Finally, we examined the spatio-temporal trends of the precipitation using the newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS-v2) product, which we validated with onsite rainfall measurements. When integrated over the entire catchment, precipitation and ET showed an average increasing trend of 5.2 mm yr−1 and 4.3 mm yr−1, respectively. This result suggests that, despite the increased ET losses, the catchment-wide water storage should have been offset by the higher precipitation. However, this result is only applicable to the catchment-wide water balance, and the location of water may have been altered (e.g., by river abstractions or by the creation of impoundments) to the detriment of the Lake Poopó downstream.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2019-nCoV Epidemic at the County Level in Hubei Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wentao Yang ◽  
Min Deng ◽  
Chaokui Li ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
County Level ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics or patterns of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic is critical in effectively preventing and controlling this epidemic. However, no research analyzed the spatial dependency and temporal dynamics of 2019-nCoV. Consequently, this research aims to detect the spatio-temporal patterns of the 2019-nCoV epidemic using spatio-temporal analysis methods at the county level in Hubei province. The Mann–Kendall and Pettitt methods were used to identify the temporal trends and abrupt changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases, respectively. The local Moran’s I index was applied to uncover the spatial patterns of the incidence rate, including spatial clusters and outliers. On the basis of the data from January 26 to February 11, 2020, we found that there were 11 areas with different types of temporal patterns of daily new confirmed cases. The pattern characterized by an increasing trend and abrupt change is mainly attributed to the improvement in the ability to diagnose the disease. Spatial clusters with high incidence rates during the period were concentrated in Wuhan Metropolitan Area due to the high intensity of spatial interaction of the population. Therefore, enhancing the ability to diagnose the disease and controlling the movement of the population can be confirmed as effective measures to prevent and control the regional outbreak of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Formation of a system of indicators of balanced economic development in the context of globalization: space-time analysis in order to ensure economic security

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 07001
Author(s):  
Lubov Afanasyeva ◽  
Larisa Belousova ◽  
Tatyana Tkacheva
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Time Analysis ◽  
Balanced Development ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Research background: The modern world economy of the 21st century, being innovatively oriented, global and based on the information space, is constantly being modified, focusing on the growth of the level and quality of life of the population by accelerating innovation processes. For the purposes of monitoring the innovation and investment activities of the regions in order to ensure the economic security of Russia, it is necessary to have a system of indicators that reflect the processes of innovative development of its territories as comprehensively as possible. Purpose of the article: Formation of a system of indicators for the balanced development of the region’s economy in the context of globalization: space-time analysis in order to ensure economic security. Methods: Spatio-temporal analysis of the identified indicators of balanced development of the regional economy in order to ensure economic security. Findings & Value added: The proposed system of indicators of economic security of the region and their threshold values can be used in assessing the development forecasts of the regions and the Federal Districts developed by the administration, draft budgets, expertise of the federal target programs, as well as in other elements of the regional economic security management.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Over Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Sadeqi ◽  
Hossein Tabari ◽  
Yagob Dinpashoh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Cooling Degree Days ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Heating Degree Days ◽  
Cooling Energy Demand

Abstract Climate change affects the energy demand in different sectors of the society. To investigate this possible impact, in this research, temporal trends and change points in heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD), and their simultaneous combination (HDD+CDD) were analysed for a 60-year period (1960-2019) in Iran. The results show that less than 20% of the study stations had significant trends (either upward or downward) in HDD time series, while more than 80% of the stations had significant increasing trends in CDD and HDD+CDD time series. Abrupt changes in HDD time series mostly occurred in the early 1980s, but those in CDD time series were mostly observed in the 1990s. The cooling energy demand in Iran has dramatically increased as CDD values have raised up from 690 ºC-days to 1010 ºC-days in the last 60 years. HDD, however, almost remained constant in the same period. The results suggest that if global warming continues with the current pace, cooling energy demand in the residential sector will considerably increase in the future, calling for a change in residential energy consumption policies.

scholarly journals Global Trends in the Incidence, Prevalence, and Years Lived With Disability of Parkinson's Disease in 204 Countries/Territories From 1990 to 2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zejin Ou ◽  
Jing Pan ◽  
Shihao Tang ◽  
Danping Duan ◽  
Danfeng Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Parkinson’S Disease ◽  
Parkinson's Disease ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Years Lived With Disability ◽  
Control And Management ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Incidence Prevalence

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is an increasing challenge to public health. Tracking the temporal trends of PD burden would inform health strategies.Methods: Data of PD burden was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Trends in the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of PD were estimated using the annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR) from 1990 to 2019. The EAPCs were calculated with ASR through a linear regression model.Results: The overall ASR of the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of PD increased from 1990 to 2019, and their EAPCs were 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58–0.65), 0.52 (95% CI: 0.43–0.61), and 0.53 (95% CI: 0.44–0.62). The largest number of PD patients was seen in the groups aged more than 65 years, and the percentage rapidly increased in the population aged more than 80 years. Upward trends in the ASR of PD were observed in most settings over the past 30 years. Incident trends of ASR increased pronouncedly in the United States of America and Norway, in which the respective EAPCs were 2.87 (95% CI: 2.35–3.38) and 2.14 (95% CI: 2.00–2.29). Additionally, the largest increasing trends for prevalence and YLDs were seen in Norway, with the respective EAPCs of 2.63 (95% CI: 2.43–2.83) and 2.61 (95% CI: 2.41–2.80). However, decreasing trends in PD appeared in about 30 countries, particularly Italy and the Republic of Moldova.Conclusions: Increasing trends in the burden of PD were observed globally, and in most regions and countries from 1990 to 2019. Our findings suggested that the control and management of PD should be strengthened, especially when considering the aging tendency of the population.

Spatio-temporal trends in the risk of adolescent pregnancy in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2000–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daiane Leite da Roza ◽  
Carla Maria Teixeira de Oliveira ◽  
Maria de Fátima Rodrigues Pereira de Pina ◽  
Denisa Maria de Melo Vasques de Mendonça ◽  
Edson Zangiacomi Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Adolescent Mothers ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
Local Index ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Purpose To investigate, through a spatio-temporal analysis, the association between the percentages of live births of adolescent mothers (LBAM) and the human development index (HDI), including the three components: income, education and longevity. Methods The percentage of LBAM was obtained from the Brazilian Live Births Information System for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil in the period 2000–2015 and the HDI data and its components were obtained from United Nations Development Program’s (UNDP) Human Development Reports. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risk of LBAM in relation to the HDI and to identify spatial clusters of the geographical distribution of LBAM, the Moran global and local index was used. Results There is an association between the HDI and its components with LBAM. The high values of relative risk are spatially concentrated in the northern part of the state of Minas Gerais. The graphs indicated a nonlinear relationship between LBAM over the years. Conclusions There is a strong spatial dependence of LBAM in Minas Gerais, which suggests that a geographical location plays a fundamental role in understanding it. The regional disparity confirmed in this study is inherent in the process of human development, it is important for planning actions aimed at the development of these regions in order to minimize existing disparities.

scholarly journals Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 5911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Masrur ◽  
Manzhu Yu ◽  
Wei Luo ◽  
Ashraf Dewan
Keyword(s):  
Public Awareness ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Active Cluster

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a significant public health threat worldwide, particularly in densely populated countries such as Bangladesh with inadequate health care facilities. While early detection and isolation were identified as important non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures for containing the disease spread, this may not have been pragmatically implementable in developing countries due to social and economic reasons (i.e., poor education, less public awareness, massive unemployment). Hence, to elucidate COVID-19 transmission dynamics with respect to the NPI status—e.g., social distancing—this study conducted spatio-temporal analysis using the prospective scanning statistic at district and sub-district levels in Bangladesh and its capital, Dhaka city, respectively. Dhaka megacity has remained the highest-risk “active” cluster since early April. Lately, the central and south eastern regions in Bangladesh have been exhibiting a high risk of COVID-19 transmission. The detected space-time progression of COVID-19 infection suggests that Bangladesh has experienced a community-level transmission at the early phase (i.e., March, 2020), primarily introduced by Bangladeshi citizens returning from coronavirus epicenters in Europe and the Middle East. Potential linkages exist between the violation of NPIs and the emergence of new higher-risk clusters over the post-incubation periods around Bangladesh. Novel insights into the COVID-19 transmission dynamics derived in this study on Bangladesh provide important policy guidelines for early preparations and pragmatic NPI measures to effectively deal with infectious diseases in resource-scarce countries worldwide.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document