scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Dropsonde Data on Rain Forecasts in Taiwan with Observing System Simulation Experiments

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1672
Author(s):  
Fang-Ching Chien ◽  
Yen-Chao Chiu
Keyword(s):  
System Simulation ◽  
Northern South China Sea ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Separation Distance ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Minimum Requirement ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) study to examine the impact of dropsonde data assimilation (DA) on rainfall forecasts for a heavy rain event in Taiwan. The rain event was associated with strong southwesterly flows over the northern South China Sea (SCS) after a weakening tropical cyclone (TC) made landfall over southeastern China. With DA of synthetic dropsonde data over the northern SCS, the model reproduces more realistic initial fields and a better simulated TC track that can help in producing improved low-level southwesterly flows and rainfall forecasts in Taiwan. Dropsonde DA can also aid the model in reducing the ensemble spread, thereby producing more converged ensemble forecasts. The sensitivity studies suggest that dropsonde DA with a 12-h cycling interval is the best strategy for deriving skillful rainfall forecasts in Taiwan. Increasing the DA interval to 6 h is not beneficial. However, if the flight time is limited, a 24-h interval of DA cycling is acceptable, because rainfall forecasts in Taiwan appear to be satisfactory. It is also suggested that 12 dropsondes with a 225-km separation distance over the northern SCS set a minimum requirement for enhancing the model regarding rainfall forecasts. Although more dropsonde data can help the model to obtain better initial fields over the northern SCS, they do not provide more assistance to the forecasts of the TC track and rainfall in Taiwan. These findings can be applied to the future field campaigns and model simulations in the nearby regions.

Quantifying Snow Mass Mission Concept Trade-Offs Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Garnaud ◽  
Stéphane Bélair ◽  
Marco L. Carrera ◽  
Chris Derksen ◽  
Bernard Bilodeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Wet Snow ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Snow Mass

Abstract Because of its location, Canada is particularly affected by snow processes and their impact on the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Yet, snow mass observations that are ongoing, global, frequent (1–5 days), and at high enough spatial resolution (kilometer scale) for assimilation within operational prediction systems are presently not available. Recently, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) partnered with the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) to initiate a radar-focused snow mission concept study to define spaceborne technological solutions to this observational gap. In this context, an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was performed to determine the impact of sensor configuration, snow water equivalent (SWE) retrieval performance, and snow wet/dry state on snow analyses from the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS). The synthetic experiment shows that snow analyses are strongly sensitive to revisit frequency since more frequent assimilation leads to a more constrained land surface model. The greatest reduction in spatial (temporal) bias is from a 1-day revisit frequency with a 91% (93%) improvement. Temporal standard deviation of the error (STDE) is mostly reduced by a greater retrieval accuracy with a 65% improvement, while a 1-day revisit reduces the temporal STDE by 66%. The inability to detect SWE under wet snow conditions is particularly impactful during the spring meltdown, with an increase in spatial RMSE of up to 50 mm. Wet snow does not affect the domain-wide annual maximum SWE nor the timing of end-of-season snowmelt timing in this case, indicating that radar measurements, although uncertain during melting events, are very useful in adding skill to snow analyses.

The impact of heavy rain event on groundwater microbial communities in Xikuangshan, Hunan Province, P.R. China

2020 ◽  
pp. 125674
Author(s):  
Mengxiaojun Wu ◽  
Hongmei Wang ◽  
Weiqi Wang ◽  
Yuyang Song ◽  
Liyuan Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Microbial Communities ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Heavy Rain Event ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Assimilation of Surface-Based Boundary Layer Profiler Observations during a Cool-Season Weather Event Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment. Part I: Analysis Impact

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (8) ◽  
pp. 2309-2326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason A. Otkin ◽  
Daniel C. Hartung ◽  
David D. Turner ◽  
Ralph A. Petersen ◽  
Wayne F. Feltz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Moisture Profile ◽  
Wind Profiles ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this study, an Observing System Simulation Experiment was used to examine how the assimilation of temperature, water vapor, and wind profiles from a potential array of ground-based remote sensing boundary layer profiling instruments impacts the accuracy of atmospheric analyses when using an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system. Remote sensing systems evaluated during this study include the Doppler wind lidar (DWL), Raman lidar (RAM), microwave radiometer (MWR), and the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI). The case study tracked the evolution of several extratropical weather systems that occurred across the contiguous United States during 7–8 January 2008. Overall, the results demonstrate that using networks of high-quality temperature, wind, and moisture profile observations of the lower troposphere has the potential to improve the accuracy of wintertime atmospheric analyses over land. The impact of each profiling system was greatest in the lower and middle troposphere on the variables observed or retrieved by that instrument; however, some minor improvements also occurred in the unobserved variables and in the upper troposphere, particularly when RAM observations were assimilated. The best analysis overall was achieved when DWL wind profiles and temperature and moisture observations from the RAM, AERI, or MWR were assimilated simultaneously, which illustrates that both mass and momentum observations are necessary to improve the analysis accuracy.

scholarly journals Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Data on the Numerical Simulation of a Historical Mumbai Rain Event

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 891-913 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randhir Singh ◽  
P. K. Pal ◽  
C. M. Kishtawal ◽  
P. C. Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Moisture Profiles ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, the three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (3DVAR) in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the impact of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved temperature and moisture profiles on board Aqua, a satellite that is part of NASA’s Earth Observing System. A record-breaking heavy rain event that occurred over Mumbai, India, on 26 July 2005 with 24-h rainfall exceeding 94 cm was used for the simulation. By analyzing the data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, possible causes of this heavy rainfall event were investigated. The temporal evolution of meteorological fields clearly indicates the formation of midtropospheric mesoscale vortices over Mumbai that exactly coincides with the duration of the intense rainfall. Analysis also indicated the midlevel dryness with higher temperature and moisture in the lower levels. This midlevel dryness with high temperature and moisture in the lower levels increases the conditional instability, which was conducive for the development of very severe local thunderstorms. The midtropospheric mesoscale vortices existed over Mumbai together with lower-level instability and the active monsoon conditions over the west coast resulted in intense rainfall, on the order of 94 cm in 24 h. Numerical experiments were conducted, with two nested domains (45- and 15-km grid spacing). The assimilation of the AIRS-retrieved temperature and moisture profiles produced significant impacts on the location and intensity of the simulated rainfall. It is seen from the numerical experiments that the assimilation of AIRS data could produce the structure of mesoscale vortices, and lower-level thermodynamics and convergence much more realistically compared with the control simulation. The spatial distribution of the rainfall from the simulation using AIRS data was more realistic than that without AIRS data. To make the quantitative comparison of the predicted rainfall with the observed one, the equitable threat score and bias were calculated for different threshold values of rainfall. Inclusion of AIRS data significantly improved the precipitation as indicated by the equitable threat scores and biases for almost all of the threshold rainfall categories.

scholarly journals The Impact of Increased Frequency of Rawinsonde Observations on Forecast Skill Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (5) ◽  
pp. 1823-1834 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. C. Privé ◽  
R. M. Errico ◽  
K.-S. Tai
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Cycle Times ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Analysis Quality

Abstract Most rawinsondes are launched once or twice daily, at 0000 and/or 1200 UTC; only a small number of the total rawinsonde observations are taken at 0600 and 1800 UTC (“off hour” cycle times). In this study, the variations of forecast and analysis quality between cycle times and the potential improvement of skill due to supplemental rawinsonde measurements at 0600 and 1800 UTC are tested in the framework of an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), is used with the GMAO OSSE setup for an experiment emulating the months of July and August with the 2011 observational network. The OSSE is run with and without supplemental rawinsonde observations at 0600 and 1800 UTC, and the differences in analysis error and forecast skill are quantified. The addition of supplemental rawinsonde observations results in significant improvement of analysis quality in the Northern Hemisphere for both the 0000/1200 and 0600/1800 UTC cycle times, with greater improvement for the off-hour times. Reduction of root-mean-square errors on the order of 1%–3% for wind and temperature is found at the 24- and 48-h forecast times. There is a slight improvement in Northern Hemisphere anomaly correlations at the 120-h forecast time.

scholarly journals A Detention Reservoir Reduced Combined Sewer Overflows and Bathing Water Contamination Due to Intense Rainfall

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3425
Author(s):  
Marco Romei ◽  
Matteo Lucertini ◽  
Enrico Esposito Renzoni ◽  
Elisa Baldrighi ◽  
Federica Grilli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Concern ◽  
Treatment Options ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Combined Sewer Overflows ◽  
Bathing Water ◽  
Combined Sewer ◽  
Sewer Overflows ◽  
The Impact

Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) close to water bodies are a cause of grave environmental concern. In the past few decades, major storm events have become increasingly common in some regions, and the meteorological scenarios predict a further increase in their frequency. Consequently, CSO control and treatment according to best practices, the adoption of innovative treatment solutions and careful sewer system management are urgently needed. A growing number of publications has been addressing the quality, quantity and types of available water management and treatment options. In this study, we describe the construction of an innovative detention reservoir along the Arzilla River (Fano, Italy) whose function is to store diluted CSO wastewater exceeding the capacity of a combined drain system. River water sampling and testing for microbial contamination downstream of the tank after a heavy rain event found a considerable reduction of fecal coliform concentrations, which would have compounded the impact of stormwater on the bathing site. These preliminary results suggest that the detention tank exerted beneficial environmental effects on bathing water by lowering the microbial load.

scholarly journals A Severe Weather Quick Observing System Simulation Experiment (QuickOSSE) of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Radio Occultation (RO) Superconstellations

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (2) ◽  
pp. 637-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mark Leidner ◽  
Thomas Nehrkorn ◽  
John Henderson ◽  
Marikate Mountain ◽  
Tom Yunck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Navigation Satellite System ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Navigation Satellite ◽  
Global Navigation ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultations (RO) over the last 10 years have proved to be a valuable and essentially unbiased data source for operational global numerical weather prediction. However, the existing sampling coverage is too sparse in both space and time to support forecasting of severe mesoscale weather. In this study, the case study or quick observing system simulation experiment (QuickOSSE) framework is used to quantify the impact of vastly increased numbers of GNSS RO profiles on mesoscale weather analysis and forecasting. The current study focuses on a severe convective weather event that produced both a tornado and flash flooding in Oklahoma on 31 May 2013. The WRF Model is used to compute a realistic and faithful depiction of reality. This 2-km “nature run” (NR) serves as the “truth” in this study. The NR is sampled by two proposed constellations of GNSS RO receivers that would produce 250 thousand and 2.5 million profiles per day globally. These data are then assimilated using WRF and a 24-member, 18-km-resolution, physics-based ensemble Kalman filter. The data assimilation is cycled hourly and makes use of a nonlocal, excess phase observation operator for RO data. The assimilation of greatly increased numbers of RO profiles produces improved analyses, particularly of the lower-tropospheric moisture fields. The forecast results suggest positive impacts on convective initiation. Additional experiments should be conducted for different weather scenarios and with improved OSSE systems.

scholarly journals An Observing System Simulation Experiment with a Constellation of Radio Occultation Satellites

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (12) ◽  
pp. 4247-4259 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Cucurull ◽  
R. Atlas ◽  
R. Li ◽  
M. J. Mueller ◽  
R. N. Hoffman
Keyword(s):  
Radio Occultation ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Experiments with a global observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) system based on the recent 7-km-resolution NASA nature run (G5NR) were conducted to determine the potential value of proposed Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) constellations in current operational numerical weather prediction systems. The RO observations were simulated with the geographic sampling expected from the original planned Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) system, with six equatorial (total of ~6000 soundings per day) and six polar (total of ~6000 soundings per day) receiver satellites. The experiments also accounted for the expected improved vertical coverage provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory RO receivers on board COSMIC-2. Except that RO observations were simulated and assimilated as refractivities, the 2015 version of the NCEP’s operational data assimilation system was used to run the OSSEs. The OSSEs quantified the impact of RO observations on global weather analyses and forecasts and the impact of adding explicit errors to the simulation of perfect RO profiles. The inclusion or exclusion of explicit errors had small, statistically insignificant impacts on results. The impact of RO observations was found to increase the length of the useful forecasts. In experiments with explicit errors, these increases were found to be 0.6 h in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (a 0.4% improvement), 5.9 h in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics (a significant 4.0% improvement), and 12.1 h in the tropics (a very substantial 28.4% improvement).

scholarly journals Assimilation of Satellite Infrared Radiances and Doppler Radar Observations during a Cool Season Observing System Simulation Experiment

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (10) ◽  
pp. 3273-3299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Jones ◽  
Jason A. Otkin ◽  
David J. Stensrud ◽  
Kent Knopfmeier
Keyword(s):  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract An observing system simulation experiment is used to examine the impact of assimilating water vapor–sensitive satellite infrared brightness temperatures and Doppler radar reflectivity and radial velocity observations on the analysis accuracy of a cool season extratropical cyclone. Assimilation experiments are performed for four different combinations of satellite, radar, and conventional observations using an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation system. Comparison with the high-resolution “truth” simulation indicates that the joint assimilation of satellite and radar observations reduces errors in cloud properties compared to the case in which only conventional observations are assimilated. The satellite observations provide the most impact in the mid- to upper troposphere, whereas the radar data also improve the cloud analysis near the surface and aloft as a result of their greater vertical resolution and larger overall sample size. Errors in the wind field are also significantly reduced when radar radial velocity observations were assimilated. Overall, assimilating both satellite and radar data creates the most accurate model analysis, which indicates that both observation types provide independent and complimentary information and illustrates the potential for these datasets for improving mesoscale model analyses and ensuing forecasts.

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