scholarly journals Group Testing-Based Robust Algorithm for Diagnosis of COVID-19

Diagnostics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 396
Author(s):  
Jin-Taek Seong

At the time of writing, the COVID-19 infection is spreading rapidly. Currently, there is no vaccine or treatment, and researchers around the world are attempting to fight the infection. In this paper, we consider a diagnosis method for COVID-19, which is characterized by a very rapid rate of infection and is widespread. A possible method for avoiding severe infections is to stop the spread of the infection in advance by the prompt and accurate diagnosis of COVID-19. To this end, we exploit a group testing (GT) scheme, which is used to find a small set of confirmed cases out of a large population. For the accurate detection of false positives and negatives, we propose a robust algorithm (RA) based on the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP). The key idea of the proposed RA is to exploit iterative detection to propagate beliefs to neighbor nodes by exchanging marginal probabilities between input and output nodes. As a result, we show that our proposed RA provides the benefit of being robust against noise in the GT schemes. In addition, we demonstrate the performance of our proposal with a number of tests and successfully find a set of infected samples in both noiseless and noisy GT schemes with different COVID-19 incidence rates.

Author(s):  
Leila Taghizadeh ◽  
Ahmad Karimi ◽  
Clemens Heitzinger

AbstractThe main goal of this paper is to develop the forward and inverse modeling of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic using novel computational methodologies in order to accurately estimate and predict the pandemic. This leads to governmental decisions support in implementing effective protective measures and prevention of new outbreaks. To this end, we use the logistic equation and the SIR system of ordinary differential equations to model the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the inverse modeling, we propose Bayesian inversion techniques, which are robust and reliable approaches, in order to estimate the unknown parameters of the epidemiological models. We use an adaptive Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for the estimation of a posteriori probability distribution and confidence intervals for the unknown model parameters as well as for the reproduction number. Furthermore, we present a fatality analysis for COVID-19 in Austria, which is also of importance for governmental protective decision making. We perform our analyses on the publicly available data for Austria to estimate the main epidemiological model parameters and to study the effectiveness of the protective measures by the Austrian government. The estimated parameters and the analysis of fatalities provide useful information for decision makers and makes it possible to perform more realistic forecasts of future outbreaks.


Author(s):  
Anju E Joham ◽  
Nadira S Kakoly ◽  
Helena J Teede ◽  
Arul Earnest

Abstract Context There are limited studies in large population-based settings examining the relationship between polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and hypertension. Objective To evaluate incidence of hypertension among women with and without PCOS over a 15-year period. Design Secondary analysis of longitudinal data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Setting General community Participants Women were randomly selected from the national health insurance database. 9,508 women, aged 21-42 years, were followed up from 2000–2015 Methods We conducted survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards model to identify predictors of hypertension and person-time analysis to calculate incidence rates of hypertension. Results 9,508 women were followed for 145,159 PY (person years) and 1,556 (16.37%) women developed hypertension during follow-up. The incidence of hypertension was significantly higher (p=0.001) among women with PCOS (17/1000 PY) compared to women without (10/1000 PY). 8,223 women had known PCOS status, of which 681 women (8.3%) had self-reported physician diagnosed PCOS. Incidence rate difference of hypertension (cases attributable to PCOS) was four-fold higher (15.8 vs. 4.3 respectively /1000PY) among obese women with PCOS compared to age-matched lean women with PCOS. PCOS was independently associated with 37% greater risk of hypertension (HR 1.37, 95%CI 1.14-1.65), adjusting for body mass index (BMI), family history of hypertension, occupation and co-morbidity with type 2 diabetes. Conclusions Women with PCOS are more likely to develop hypertension from early adulthood, independent of BMI, which is further exacerbated by obesity. Including PCOS in hypertension risk stratification assessments may aid efforts in early identification of the disorder.


Author(s):  
S.G. Vorona ◽  
S.N. Bulychev

The article deals with the issue of stealth of radio-electronic means, energy and structural, radio-electronic masking and ways of its implementation. The structure of the unknown signal for exploration and its parameters, as well as the a posteriori probability of each signal associated with the a priori likelihood function and the cases of its solution. The advantages and disadvantages of broadband signals and their characteristics used in modern radars are considered. On the basis of which conclusions are drawn: LFM radio pulse and a single FCM pulse, used in target tracking modes, has high resolution capabilities in range and radial velocity. The ACF of the FCM pulse has side lobes that raise the target detection threshold, as a result of which radar targets with a weak echo signal can be missed. The considered signals do not provide energy and structural stealth of the radar operation.


2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S30-S31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas P Lodise ◽  
Susan L Rosenkranz ◽  
Matthew Finnemeyer ◽  
Jacqueline Huvane ◽  
Alenda Pereira ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Current guidelines recommend vancomycin (VAN) dosing to achieve AUC/MIC ratio ≥400 for patients (pts) with serious MRSA bloodstream infections (BSI), but supporting data were largely derived in single center retrospective studies. A recent study using a Bayesian approach to estimate the VAN AUC found that patients with MRSA BSI who had an AUCDAY2/MICBMD ≥ 650 or an AUCDAY2/MICETEST ≥ 320 had lower incidences of failure (Clin Infect Dis 59:666, 2014). This study prospectively evaluated if these VAN AUCDAY2/MIC targets were associated with lower incidences of failure (PROVIDE, Award number UM1AI104681, Antibacterial Resistance Leadership Group). Methods Prospective, multi-center (n = 14), observational study (2014–2106) of hospitalized adults with confirmed MRSA BSI treated with VAN ≥ 72h. Exclusion: (1) neutropenia; (2) cystic fibrosis; (3) renal replacement therapy; (4) APACHE-II score > 25; (5) previous MRSA BSI within 60 days. VAN exposures were estimated using maximum a posteriori probability procedure in ADAPT 5. MICBMD and MICETEST were performed at a central laboratory. Outcomes: failure (30-day mortality or MRSA BSI ≥ 7 days); acute kidney injury (AKI), ≥1.5 × increase in serum creatinine (Scr) among patients with a baseline SCR < 2.0mg/dl. The study was powered at 80% to detect a 17.5% difference in failure between AUCDAY2/MIC groups. Results Among the 265 evaluable patients, mean (SD) age was 61 (17) and APACHE-II was 12 (6). Endocarditis was definite/possible in 29%. The MIC50/90 by BMD and ETEST were 1/1 and 1.5/1.5mg/l, respectively. Failure occurred in 18%; 26% had AKI. Mean (SD) VAN duration was 18 (14) days. Mean (SD) AUCDAY2 was 586.9 (235.5) and 44% and 73% of patients achieved an AUCDAY2/MICBMD ≥ 650 and AUCDAY2/MICETEST ≥ 320. In the multivariate analyses (Figure 1), failure was not significantly different between AUCDAY2/MIC groups. In contrast, AKI was significantly more common in patients with an AUCDAY2/ MICETEST > = 320. Conclusion Achievement of higher VAN AUCDAY2/MIC exposures for patients with MRSA BSIs were not associated with better outcomes and were found to result in increased AKI. Clinicians should assess the benefits vs. risks of using VAN regimens that confer high AUCDAY2/MIC exposures for patients with MRSA BSIs. Disclosures T. P. Lodise Jr., allergan: Consultant, Grant Investigator, Scientific Advisor and Speaker’s Bureau, Consulting fee and Speaker honorarium; medicines company: Consultant, Grant Investigator, Scientific Advisor and Speaker’s Bureau, Consulting fee, Research support and Speaker honorarium; melinta: Consultant, Consulting fee; motif: Consultant and Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee; paratek: Consultant and Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee; nabriva: Consultant, Consulting fee; M. J. Zervos, Merck, Inc.: Investigator, Research grant; M. Scheetz, Bayer: Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee; V. Fowler Jr., Pfizer, Novartis, Galderma, Novadigm, Durata, Debiopharm, Genentech, Achaogen, Affinium, Medicines Co., Cerexa, Tetraphase, Trius, MedImmune, Bayer, Theravance, Cubist, Basilea, Affinergy, Janssen, xBiotech, Contrafect: Consultant, Consulting fee; NIH, Basilea, MedImmune, Cerexa/Forest/Actavis/Allergan, Pfizer, Advanced Liquid Logics, Theravance, Novartis, Cubist/Merck; Medical Biosurfaces; Locus; Affinergy; Contrafect; Karius: Grant Investigator, Research grant; Green Cross, Cubist, Cerexa, Durata, Theravance; Debiopharm: Consultant, Consulting fee; UpToDate: author on several chapters, Royalties


Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (14) ◽  
pp. 3991
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Mucchi ◽  
Luca Simone Ronga ◽  
Sara Jayousi

Reducing energy consumption is one of the most important task of the approaching Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm. Existing communication standards, such as 3G/4G, use complex protocols (active mode, sleep modes) in order to address the waste of energy. These protocols are forced to transmit when one frame is only partially filled with information symbols. The hard task to adapt the power-saving mode with low latency to the discontinuity of the source is mainly due to the fact that the receiver cannot know a priori when the source has something to transmit. In this paper, we propose a modified signalling/constellation which can save energy by mapping a zero-energy symbol in the information source. This paper addresses the fundamentals of this new technique: the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) criterion, the probability of error, the (energy) entropy, the (energy) capacity as well as the energy cost of the proposed technique are derived for the binary signalling case.


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