scholarly journals Modelling the Dynamics of Fuel and EU Allowance Prices during Phase 3 of the EU ETS

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3148 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Carnero ◽  
Jose Olmo ◽  
Lorenzo Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Forward Markets ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Independent Unit ◽  
Joint Dynamics ◽  
Forward Prices

This article studies the relationship between the prices of fuel and EU Allowances (EUA) for carbon emissions during Phase 3 of the European Union Emissions Trading System. We find that the forward prices of EUA, coal, gas and Brent oil are jointly determined in equilibrium. The existence of such a long-run relationship entails a permanent-transitory decomposition for the series of EUA and fuel prices that reveals the short- and long-term causal influence of the EUA market in shaping the joint dynamics of fuel prices. This result complements the literature that suggests that EUA prices are driven by the dynamics of fuel prices. Interestingly, we do not find an equilibrium relationship in the spot market. EUA and fuel spot prices are driven by independent unit root processes. The differences between spot and forward markets are attributed to the tradability of forward prices that are used for speculation and hedging in financial markets. In contrast, spot prices are mainly driven by supply and demand in energy markets.

Information in Electricity Forward Prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (8) ◽  
pp. 2641-2664
Author(s):  
Richard A. Michelfelder ◽  
Eugene A. Pilotte
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Forward Prices ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Hourly Variation

We examine forward prices in a market where nonstorable inventory exacerbates the influence of seasonal and hourly variation in supply and demand, expected and unexpected, on the level and volatility of spot prices. We find strong evidence, unusual for a commodity, that the difference between contemporaneous forward and spot prices has power to forecast both the spot price change and the risk premium realized at delivery. Our evidence of a time-varying risk premium is consistent with expected hourly and seasonal variation in the needs of producers and retailers of electricity to hedge against extreme spot price decreases and increases, respectively.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Case of Central Europe

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3415
Author(s):  
Bartosz Jóźwik ◽  
Antonina-Victoria Gavryshkiv ◽  
Phouphet Kyophilavong ◽  
Lech Euzebiusz Gruszecki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Central European ◽  
Long Run

The rapid economic growth observed in Central European countries in the last thirty years has been the result of profound political changes and economic liberalization. This growth is partly connected with reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the problem of CO2 emissions seems to remain unresolved. The aim of this paper is to test whether the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis holds true for Central European countries in an annual sample data that covers 1995–2016 in most countries. We examine cointegration by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound testing. This is the first study examining the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in individual Central European countries from a long-run perspective, which allows the results to be compared. We confirmed the cointegration, but our estimates confirmed the EKC hypothesis only in Poland. It should also be noted that in all nine countries, energy consumption leads to increased CO2 emissions. The long-run elasticity ranges between 1.5 in Bulgaria and 2.0 in Croatia. We observed exceptionally low long-run elasticity in Estonia (0.49). Our findings suggest that to solve the environmental degradation problem in Central Europe, it is necessary to individualize the policies implemented in the European Union.

scholarly journals Study Design and Baseline Characteristics of the CARDINAL Trial: A Phase 3 Study of Bardoxolone Methyl in Patients with Alport Syndrome

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Glenn M. Chertow ◽  
Gerald B. Appel ◽  
Sharon Andreoli ◽  
Sripal Bangalore ◽  
Geoffrey A. Block ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kidney Function ◽  
Alport Syndrome ◽  
Genetic Disorder ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Genetic Diagnosis ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Histologic Diagnosis

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Alport syndrome is a rare genetic disorder that affects as many as 60,000 persons in the USA and a total of 103,000 persons (&#x3c;5 per 10,000) in the European Union [1, 2]. It is the second most common inherited cause of kidney failure and is characterized by progressive loss of kidney function that often leads to end-stage kidney disease. Currently, there are no approved disease-specific agents for therapeutic use. We designed a phase 3 study (CARDINAL; NCT03019185) to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of bardoxolone methyl in patients with Alport syndrome. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> The CARDINAL phase 3 study is an international, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized registrational trial. Eligible patients were of ages 12–70 years with confirmed genetic or histologic diagnosis of Alport syndrome, eGFR 30–90 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup>, and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) ≤3,500 mg/g. Patients with B-type natriuretic peptide values &#x3e;200 pg/mL at baseline or with significant cardiovascular histories were excluded. Patients were randomized 1:1 to bardoxolone methyl or placebo, with stratification by baseline UACR. <b><i>Results:</i></b> A total of 371 patients were screened, and 157 patients were randomly assigned to receive bardoxolone methyl (<i>n</i> = 77) or placebo (<i>n</i> = 80). The average age at screening was 39.2 years, and 23 (15%) were &#x3c;18 years of age. Of the randomized population, 146 (93%) had confirmed genetic diagnosis of Alport syndrome, and 62% of patients had X-linked mode of inheritance. Mean baseline eGFR was 62.7 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup>, and the geometric mean UACR was 141.0 mg/g. The average annual rate of eGFR decline prior to enrollment in the study was −4.9 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup> despite 78% of the patient population receiving ACE inhibitor (ACEi) or ARB therapy. <b><i>Discussion/Conclusion:</i></b> CARDINAL is one of the largest interventional, randomized controlled trials in Alport syndrome conducted to date. Despite the use of ACEi or ARB, patients were experiencing significant loss of kidney function prior to study entry.

Income convergence in Europe: Catching up or falling behind?

2012 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan Czasonis ◽  
Michael Quinn
Keyword(s):  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Income Convergence ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Time Frames ◽  
The Eu

One of the motivations for a country to join the European Union is the belief that this will boost short- and long-run incomes. Researchers have tested the hypothesis of income convergence in different settings using either regression or unit root analysis, with mixed results. In this paper, we use both methods on the same samples over a significant time period. This allows us to judge differences in results across varied time-frames and methodologies. The focus of these tests is on convergence to German and EMU average incomes by Eastern European countries and those within the Euro-zone from 1971–2007. The evidence for convergence is mixed. Among the Euro-zone countries, there is more evidence of convergence in the 1970s and 1980s than recently. There is significant evidence that Eastern Europe experienced convergence and that capital formation was one of the root causes. While the results do not support the hypothesis that joining the EU increases convergence, reforms undertaken in the 1990s by Eastern European countries in preparation for joining may have helped them to “catch up”, even if the act of joining the EU did not directly impact convergence.

Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern EU Countries: Evidence from the Post-Cold War Era

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 453-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mert Topcu ◽  
İlhan Aras
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
New Members ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Military Expenditures ◽  
Eastern European Countries

Although the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth is well documented for the old members of the European Union, empirically little is known for the new members. Thus, the goal of this paper is to investigate the economic impact of military expenditures in Central and Eastern European countries employing panel cointegration and causality methods for the period 1993–2013. Findings indicate that the variables in question do not move together in the long run and the direction of causality in the short run is from economic growth to military expenditures. The implications of the results for international relations are discussed.

MERGE OF THE TECHNİCAL ANALYSİS TYPES GİVES THE BEST RESULTS İN CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (14) ◽  
pp. 89-97
Author(s):  
MUSTAFA ÖZYEŞİL ◽  
MOHAMMAD AL-TARIFI
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Peer Network ◽  
Tangible Asset ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Peer To Peer Network

Cryptocurrencies are a modern kind of financial instrument (Hudson & Urquhart, 2019), the first cryptocurrency is Bitcoin , proposed by who called Satoushi Nakamato (2008), as The open source was created on the proof-of-concept principle that transactions can be securely treated on a decentralized peer to peer network without the need for a central clearinghouse, which appeared 2009 ( Heid, 2013). The success of the bitcoin blazes a trail to what called ‘Altcoin” this expression means all the cryptocurrencies that set in motion after the victory of the bitcoin, these coins sell themselves as the best alternatives for the bitcoin (FRANKENFIELD, 2020) . There are many types for the altcoin. The third type of the cryptocurrency is called Tokens Unlike Bitcoin and Altcoins, tokens are not able to activate independently and are dependent on the grid of another cryptocurrency. That means they do not have their own core DLT or blockchain, but instead, are built on top of an existing cryptocurrency’s blockchain (Types of cryptocurrencies: explaining the major types of cryptos, 2019). The worth of bitcoin doesn’t depend on any tangible asset or economies of the countries while it is based upon the security of an algorithm which traces all transactions (Hudson & Urquhart, 2019). The studies determine the number of the bitcoin price development in the long -run (Ciaian, Rajcaniova, & Kancs, 2018): • Market forces of the Bitcoin supply and demand • The bitcoin’s attractiveness for the investors • The influence of global macro-financial developments If you're forming an investment strategy designed to help you trail long-term financial intentions, understanding the relationship between company size, return potential, and risk is vital. (Market cap—or market capitalization—refers to the total value of all a company's shares of stock, 2017) .Hence , Manifested importance a cryptocurrency’s market capitalization as the total values of all coins currently in circulation. the cryptocurrency’s market cap contains what’s called Bitcoin Dominance that is the ratio between the market cap of bitcoin to other coins of the cryptocurrency markets (jacobcanfield, 2019) . Cryptocurrency trade is attractive type of investment. this market treated the same of the foreign exchange and stock market ( Radityo, Munajat, & Budi, 2017). The investors using the same basic in investment (buy low, sell high) but they need to calculating the risks

scholarly journals Exploring the Road to Agricultural Sustainability by Assessing the EU Debt Influencing Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2465
Author(s):  
Laura Brad ◽  
Gabriel Popescu ◽  
Alina Zaharia ◽  
Maria Claudia Diaconeasa ◽  
Daniela Mihai
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Fixed Costs ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Total Debt ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Periodic Analysis ◽  
The Impact

The importance of agricultural financing in ensuring food security and safety, jobs, poverty reduction, economic growth and more recently, climate change mitigation, natural resource conservation and sustainable development imposes periodic analysis of the factors which might influence the farmers’ financial situation, in order to improve it. One way of assessing this is to analyze the agricultural debt. In this context, based on previous models, the paper aims to assess the impact of specific factors on the agricultural debt level in the European Union during 2008–2015, as these should be considered in future common agriculture policies as well as in achieving sustainable agriculture. The research was conducted based on econometric techniques, by applying panel models in the Eviews 7.0 software-64 bit version. More than 20 variables were considered in the analysis. Some of the findings suggest that an increase in subsidies as well as the share of cash flow in the total existing capital would determine considerable reductions of the total debt. Decoupled subsidies seem to have a higher impact than coupled subsidies on short term debt, while its value is between the one found for coupled subsidies in the case of long term debt. Large farms/companies, to which decoupled payments are granted, have higher debts on long run and on total debt. The same units, to which coupled subsidies were granted, have smaller short-term debt. In contrast, the increases of labor costs, fixed costs, and crop/livestock costs lead to an increase in the total debt, since the farms require additional financial resources to cover the expanded costs. Also, the results suggest that short-term debts are mainly formed of long-term loans that reached maturity. In this case, the authors support the idea of differentiated financing programs for the agricultural activities because of their peculiarities and reinforced by the need to turn the intensive agriculture into a sustainable and plentiful one.

scholarly journals Renewable energy development in Hungary

2012 ◽  
pp. 73-77
Author(s):  
Orsolya Nagy
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Renewable Energy Development

Due to the exhaustion of the fossile fuel reserves of the Earth, the increase of fossile fuel prices and the difficulties concerning stable fuel supply, the increase of electricity production from renewable energy sources has a special strategic importance. In this study, I am going to evaluate the circumstances of the production and use of renewable energy sources in Hungary and in the European Union. I present the Hungarian economic, energy policy-related and social circumstances which make it necessary to support renewable energy production. I am going to give an overview on the related EU strategies concerning the sector and the Hungarian development plan in this field. I pay particular attention to the examination of development opportunities and the R&D activities going on in this area in Hungary, as well as the efficiency of the means used to improve renewable energy use.

scholarly journals The EU Eastern Partnership Initiative and Georgia

Politeja ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5(62)) ◽  
pp. 117-140
Author(s):  
David Darchiashvili ◽  
David Bakradze
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The West ◽  
Coercive Diplomacy ◽  
Eastern Partnership ◽  
Eu Foreign Policy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Eu

The article views the geographical area between the EU and Russian borders as a battle space of two, drastically different foreign policy and ideological approaches. The authors argue that in the years since the end of the Cold War, a unique surrogate of former clash of liberal and communist worlds emerged, leading to and underpinning current Hybrid Warfare, underway from Ukraine to Georgia. Its roots lay in the Russian interpretation of the Western attitude towards the East as Neo-colonialist. Relying on the income from its vast energy resources, Russia also tries to develop its version of so called “Soft Power”, used by the West in this region. Though in Russian hands, it is coupled with Moscow’s imperial experiences and resentments, and is becoming a mere element in Hybrid or “non-linear” war. Speaking retrospectively, the Eastern Partnership Initiative of the European Union can be seen as a response to Hybrid threats, posed by Russia against its Western and Southern neighbors. But the question is, whether EU foreign policy initiatives towards this area can and will be efficient and sufficient, if continued to be mostly defensive and limited within Soft Power mechanisms and philosophy, while Russia successfully combines those with traditional Hard Power know-how? The authors argue that in the long run, European or Euro-Atlantic Soft Power tool-kits, spreading Human Rightsbased culture farther in the East, will remain unmatched. But in order to prevail over the Russian revisionist policy here and now, the West, and, particularly, the EU need to re-evaluate traditional foreign policy options and come up with a more drastic combination of Soft/Hard Powers by itself. As the Georgian case shows, the European community should more efficiently use Conditionality and Coercive Diplomacy, combined with clearer messages about partners’ membership perspectives.

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