Inventory of Reservoirs of Key Significance for Water Management in Poland—Evaluation of Changes in Their Capacity

Dam reservoirs constitute an important element of protection against floods and hydrological droughts, and they ensure the possibility of producing electricity. Loss of reservoirs’ storage capacity has a significant impact on the management of their water resources, including flood protection and counteracting the effects of drought and the possibility of producing electricity. The paper presents changes in the capacity of 47 reservoirs in Poland that have the status of key objects of protection against floods and hydrological drought. Based on the collected, unpublished data, the changes in capacity from the beginning of the reservoirs’ existence to 31 March 2021 were calculated, which allowed us to determine the total amount of lost capacity and the pace of the processes taking place. From the beginning of operation (average operation time 48 years), the capacity has decreased by about 5%, which means that almost 200 million m3 less water is stored. Detailed analyses of the lost capacity also allowed for an illustrative presentation of forecasts for further changes in the short and long term. The results obtained represent a unique contribution to future national strategies for the management of sediment and reservoirs’ flood reserve and reduction of drought. The presentation of this problem seems to be important also in the context of climate change.

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Transanal total mesorectal excision: short- and long-term results of the first hundred cases of a certified colorectal cancer center in Germany

Surgical Endoscopy ◽

10.1007/s00464-021-08384-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Vinzenz Völkel ◽

Sabine Schatz ◽

Teresa Draeger ◽

Michael Gerken ◽

Monika Klinkhammer-Schalke ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Local Recurrence ◽

Tumor Resection ◽

Operation Time ◽

Cancer Center ◽

Transanal Total Mesorectal Excision ◽

Local Tumor ◽

Long Term Outcomes ◽

Free Survival ◽

Short And Long Term

Abstract Background Since 2010, laparoscopic transanal total mesorectal excision (TaTME) has been increasingly used for low and very low rectal cancer. It is supposed to improve visibility and access to the dissection planes in the pelvis. This study reports on short- and long-term outcomes of the first 100 consecutive patients treated with TaTME in a certified German colorectal cancer center. Patients and methods Data were derived from digital patient files and official cancer registry reports for patients with TaTME tumor surgery between July 2014 and January 2020. The primary outcome was the 3-year local recurrence rate and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS). Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OAS), disease-free survival (DFS), operation time, completeness of local tumor resection, lymph node resection, and postoperative complications. The Kaplan–Meier method was employed for the survival analyses; competing risks were considered in the time-to-event analysis. Results During the observation period, the average annual operation time decreased from 272 to 178 min. Complete local tumor resection was achieved in 97% of the procedures. Major postoperative complications (Clavien–Dindo 3–4) occurred in 11% of the cases. At a median follow-up time of 2.7 years, three patients had suffered from a local recurrence. Considering competing risks, this corresponds to a 3-year cumulative incidence rate for local recurrence of 2.2% and a 3-year LRFS of 81.9%. 3-year OAS was 82.9%, and 3-year DFS was 75.7%. Conclusion TaTME is associated with favorable short and long-term outcomes. Since it is technically demanding, structured training programs and more research on the topic are indispensable.

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Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0247272 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

pp. e0247272

Author(s):

Claudius Gros ◽

Roser Valenti ◽

Lukas Schneider ◽

Benedikt Gutsche ◽

Dimitrije Marković

Keyword(s):

Phase Space ◽

Sir Model ◽

Reaction Model ◽

Space Representation ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Short Term ◽

Before And After ◽

The Status ◽

Short And Long Term

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.

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723 TWO- VS. THREE-FIELD LYMPHADENECTOMY FOR ESOPHAGEAL CANCER. A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS OF SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OUTCOMES.

Diseases of the Esophagus ◽

10.1093/dote/doab052.723 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 34 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Letícia Nogueira Datrino ◽

Clara Lucato Santos ◽

Guilherme Tavares ◽

Luca Schiliró Tristão ◽

Maria Carolina Andrade Serafim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Esophageal Cancer ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Operation Time ◽

Extended Lymphadenectomy ◽

Long Term Outcomes ◽

Term Survival ◽

Long Term Survival ◽

Short And Long Term

Abstract Nowadays, there is still no consensus about the benefits of adding neck lymphadenectomy to the traditional two-fields esophagectomy. An extended lymphadenectomy could potentially increase operation time and the risks for postoperative complications. However, extended lymphadenectomy allows resection of cervical nodes at risk for metastases, potentially increasing long-term survival rates. This study aims to estimate whether cervical prophylactic lymphadenectomy for esophageal cancer influences short- and long-term outcomes through a systematic review of literature and meta-analysis. Methods A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library Central, and Lilacs (BVS). The inclusion criteria were: (1) studies that compare two-field vs. three-field esophagectomy; (2) adults (>18 years); (3) articles that analyze short- or long-term outcomes; and (4) clinical trials or cohort studies. The results were summarized by forest plots, with effect size (ES) or risk difference (RD) and 95% CI. Results Twenty-five articles were selected, comprising 8,954 patients. Three-field lymphadenectomy was associated to higher operation time (ES: -1.51; 95%CI -1.84, −1.18) and higher blood loss (ES: -0.24; 95%CI: −0.37, −0.11). Also, neck lymphadenectomy inputs additional risk for pulmonary complications (RD: 0.03; 95%CI: 0.01, 0.05). No difference was noted for morbidity (RD: 0.01; 95%CI: −0.01, 0.03); leak (−0.02; 95%CI: −0.07, 0.03); postoperative mortality (RD: 0.00; 95%CI: −0.00, 0.01), and hospital stay (ES: -0.05; 95%CI -0.20, 0.10). Three-field lymphadenectomy allowed higher number of retrieved lymph nodes (MD: -1.51; 95%CI -1.84, −1.18), but did not increase the overall survival (HR: 1.11; 95%CI: 0.96, 1.26). Conclusion Prophylactic neck lymphadenectomy for esophageal cancer should be performed with caution once it is associated with poorer short-term outcomes compared to traditional two-field lymphadenectomy and does not improve long-term survival. Future esophageal cancer studies should determine the subgroup of patients who could benefit from prophylactic neck lymphadenectomy in long-term outcomes.

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Analysis of two minimally invasive procedures for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures with intravertebral cleft: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery and Research ◽

10.1186/s13018-020-01938-6 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hongyu Wei ◽

Chunke Dong ◽

Yuting Zhu ◽

Haoning Ma

Keyword(s):

Meta Analysis ◽

Operation Time ◽

Cement Leakage ◽

Vertebral Compression Fractures ◽

Controlled Trials ◽

Osteoporotic Vertebral Compression Fractures ◽

Vertebral Height ◽

Compression Fractures ◽

Short And Long Term

Abstract Background A systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the pros and cons of percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) versus kyphoplasty (PKP) for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) with intravertebral cleft (IVC) including all available evidence from controlled trials. Methods Databases including Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Wanfang Data were searched to identify relevant studies comparing PVP and PKP for OVCFs with IVC. The outcomes mainly included visual analog scale (VAS), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), local kyphotic angle (LKA), rate of vertebral height (VH%), and adverse events. Results Nine studies enrolling 688 patients were eligible for meta-analysis. The results indicated no significant differences between the two groups in the short-and long-term VAS, ODI, LKA, or VH% (P > 0.05). Compared with PVP, PKP was associated with significantly longer operation time (P < 0.05), higher cost (P > 0.05), and more injected cement volume (P < 0.05). In terms of adverse events, PKP has a lower risk of cement leakage (P < 0.05), while with no significant difference in adjacent-level fracture rates (P > 0.05). Conclusion The two procedures have similar short- and long-term pain relief, functional recovery, local kyphosis correction, and vertebral height maintenance in OVCFs with IVC. PKP is superior to PVP for the injected cement volume, and lower cement leakage rate, however, with longer operation time, more fluoroscopy times, and higher cost. Further randomized controlled trials (RCTs) should be conducted to confirm these results.

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Junior Scholars in Search of Equity for Women and Minorities

Journalism & Communication Monographs ◽

10.1177/152263790500600402 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 151-211 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ramona R. Rush ◽

Carol E. Oukrop ◽

Katharine Sarikakis ◽

Julie Andsager ◽

Billy Wooten ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Communication ◽

Mass Communications ◽

Promotion And Tenure ◽

Unequal Treatment ◽

The Status ◽

Academic Units ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Individual

This paper reflects upon the 2002 report on the status of women in journalism and mass communications education that updated and expanded the 1972 study by senior authors Rush and Oukrop. Survey data from the 1972 and the 2002 studies are compared in a highlights section. The focus of this monograph is on the demographic group of “junior scholars” from the 2002 database. It argues that the majority of junior scholars perceive discrimination in several aspects of academic life, including the processes of hiring, promotion, and tenure. The major area of discrimination reported is salary, although rewards other than financial are also subject to unequal treatment. Furthermore, junior scholars are still confronted with centuries-old prejudices that define the role of women as caretakers and impose that role upon them, with effects on women's professional development. The working conditions in the academy are finally reflected in the research outcomes and knowledge produced. The 2002 study report demonstrates that 30 years later women still perceive discrimination. Women and minorities have made great strides in the national organization, the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication (AEJMC), but discrimination remains a significant issue in the individual academic units of universities. This monograph argues that the Ratio of Recurrent and Reinforced Residuum (R3) consistently fits data about women in journalism and mass communication both in the academy and in media professions around the world. This paper includes reflections and comments of younger scholars currently at different stages on the academic ladder and makes recommendations for short and long-term actions that new scholars, academic units, and communications organizations should take to help correct inequality.

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THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE ISLAH MOVEMENT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONALISM AND ISLAMIC EDUCATION IN PRE-INDEPENDENT MALAYSIA

International Journal of Heritage, Art and Multimedia ◽

10.35631/ijham.27002 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (7) ◽

pp. 12-23

Author(s):

Hafiz Zakariya

Keyword(s):

Twentieth Century ◽

Islamic Law ◽

Status Quo ◽

Islamic Education ◽

Religious Institutions ◽

Malay Peninsula ◽

Early Twentieth Century ◽

The Status ◽

Short And Long Term

The advent of the Islah movement in Malay Peninsula during the early twentieth century challenged the status quo and the existing political and religious institutions. It created a major controversy and tension between the reformists and those supporting the existing order. Consequently, some Muslims were suspicious of the reformists. This was primarily due to their non-adherence to the Shafi’i school of Islamic law, which was adopted by the majority of Muslims not only in Malay Peninsula, but the Nusantara in general. Amid such controversy, some people overlook and even dismiss the contribution of the reformists. Therefore, this article re-examines both the short and long-term contribution of the Islah movement to Malay society.

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Deploying an e-Learning Environment in Zanzibar: Feasibility Assessment

10.53832/edtechhub.0028 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Caspar Groeneveld ◽

Elia Kibga ◽

Tom Kaye

Keyword(s):

Learning Environment ◽

Virtual Learning Environment ◽

Ministry Of Education ◽

Feasibility Assessment ◽

The World Bank ◽

The Status ◽

E Learning ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Ict Infrastructure

The Zanzibar Ministry of Education and Vocational Training (MoEVT) and the World Bank (the Bank) approached the EdTech Hub (the Hub) in April 2020 to explore the feasibility of implementing a Virtual Learning Environment (VLE). The Hub was requested to focus primarily on the deployment of a VLE in lower secondary education, and this report consequently focuses primarily on this group. The report is structured in four sections: An introduction to provide the background and guiding principles for the engagement with a short overview of the methodology applied. An analysis of the Zanzibar education system with a particular focus on elements relevant to deploying a VLE. This includes the status of ICT infrastructure, and a summary of the stakeholders who will play a role in using or implementing a VLE. A third section that discusses types of VLEs and content organisation, and their applicability to the Zanzibar ecosystem. A conclusion with recommendations for Zanzibar, including short- and long-term steps. In this collaboration with Zanzibar’s MoEVT, the Hub team sought to understand the purpose of the proposed VLE. Based on discussions and user scenarios, we identified two main education challenges a VLE may help to resolve. In the short term, students cannot go to school during the COVID-19 crisis, but need access to educational content. There is content, but no flexible and versatile platform to disseminate content to all students. In the long term, a mechanism to provide students with access to quality, curriculum-aligned content in school, or remotely, is required.

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What is the advantage of rectal amputation with an initial perineal approach for primary anorectal carcinoma?

10.21203/rs.2.12357/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Kimihiko Funahashi ◽

Mayu Goto ◽

Tomoaki Kaneko ◽

Mitsunori Ushigome ◽

Satoru Kagami ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Free Survival ◽

Operation Time ◽

Conventional Group ◽

Wound Complications ◽

Perineal Approach ◽

Long Term Outcomes ◽

Abdominal Approach ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Anorectal Carcinoma

Abstract Background: Rectal amputation (RA) remains an important surgical procedure for salvage despite advances in sphincter-preserving resection, including intersphincteric resection. The aim of this study was to compare short- and long-term outcomes of RA with an initial perineal approach to those of RA with an initial abdominal approach (conventional abdominoperineal resection (APR)) for primary anorectal cancer. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the short- and long-term outcomes of 48 patients who underwent RA with an initial perineal approach (perineal group) and 21 patients who underwent RA with an initial abdominal approach (conventional group). Results: For the perineal group, the operation time was shorter than that for the conventional group (313 vs. 388 minutes, p = 0.027). The postoperative complication rate was similar between the two groups (43.8 vs. 47.6%, p = 0.766). Perineal wound complications (PWCs) were significantly fewer in the perineal group than in the conventional group (22.9 vs. 57.1%, p = 0.006). All 69 patients underwent complete TME, but positive CRM was significantly higher in the conventional group than in the perineal group (0 vs. 19.0%, p = 0.011). There were no significant differences in the recurrence (43.8 vs. 47.6%, p = 0.689), 5-year disease-free survival (63.7% vs. 56.7%, p = 0.665) and 5-year overall survival rates (82.5% vs. 66.2%, p = 0.323) between the two groups. Conclusion: These data suggest that RA with an initial perineal approach for selective primary anorectal carcinoma is advantageous in minimizing PWCs and positive CRMs. Further investigations on the advantages of this approach are necessary.

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Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

10.1101/2020.09.03.20183384 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Claudius Gros ◽

Roser Valenti ◽

Lukas Schneider ◽

Benedikt Gutsche ◽

Dimitrije Markovic

Keyword(s):

Sir Model ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Hospitalised Patients ◽

Before And After ◽

The Status ◽

Containment Measures ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Relationship ◽

Fixed Period

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemics has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an essential role both for the baseline infection rate and the short-term and long-term reaction to the outbreak. Here we investigate how societies as a whole, and governments, in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalisation of the SIR model, the controlled SIR model. We posit that containment measures correspond to feedback between the status of the outbreak (the daily or the cumulative number of cases and fatalities) and the reproduction factor. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short- and long-term control parameters. Furthermore, we identified for numerous countries a relationship between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak in daily fatalities. As the number of fatalities corresponds to the number of hospitalised patients, the relationship can be used to predict the cumulative medical load, once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty.

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