scholarly journals The Radial Growth of Schrenk Spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) Records the Hydroclimatic Changes in the Chu River Basin over the Past 175 Years

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruibo Zhang ◽  
Bakytbek Ermenbaev ◽  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Mamtimin Ali ◽  
Li Qin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Picea Schrenkiana ◽  
Arid Central Asia ◽  
Western Tianshan

The Chu River is one of the most important rivers in arid Central Asia. Its discharge is affected by climate change. Here, we establish a tree-ring chronology for the upper Chu River Basin and analyze the relationships between radial growth, climate, and discharge. The results show that the radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) is controlled by moisture. We also reconstruct a 175-year standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Chu River Basin. A comparison of the reconstructed and observed indices reveal that 39.5% of the variance occurred during the calibration period of 1952–2014. The SPEI reconstruction and discharge variability of the Chu River show consistent long-term change. They also show that the Chu River Basin became increasingly dry between the 1840s and the 1960s, with a significant drought during the 1970s. A long and rapid wetting period occurred between the 1970s and the 2000s, and was followed by increasing drought since 2004. The change in the SPEI in the Chu River Basin is consistent with records of long-term precipitation, SPEI and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) in other proximate regions of the western Tianshan Mountains. The hydroclimatic change of the Chu River Basin may be associated with westerly wind. This study is helpful for disaster prevention and water resource management in arid central Asia.

scholarly journals Long-Term Hydro–Climatic Trends in the Mountainous Kofarnihon River Basin in Central Asia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2140
Author(s):  
Aminjon Gulakhmadov ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Nekruz Gulahmadov ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Rashid Davlyatov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

Hydro–climatic variables play an essential role in assessing the long-term changes in streamflow in the snow-fed and glacier-fed rivers that are extremely vulnerable to climatic variations in the alpine mountainous regions. The trend and magnitudinal changes of hydro–climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann–Kendall, modified Mann–Kendall, and Sen’s slope tests in the Kofarnihon River Basin in Central Asia. We also used Pettitt’s test to analyze the changes during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 time periods. This study revealed that the variations of climate variables have their significant spatial patterns and are strongly regulated by the altitude. From mountainous regions down to plain regions, the decadal temperature trends varied from −0.18 to 0.36 °C/decade and the variation of precipitation from −4.76 to −14.63 mm yr−1 per decade. Considering the temporal variation, the temperature trends decreased in winter and significantly increased in spring, and the precipitation trends significantly decreased in spring but significantly increased in winter in the high-altitude areas. As consequence, total streamflow in headwater regions shows the obvious increase and clear seasonal variations. The mean monthly streamflow decreased in fall and winter and significantly increased in the spring and summer seasons which can be attributed to the influence of global warming on the rapid melting of snow and ice. Although the abrupt change points in air temperature and precipitation occurred around the 1970s and 1990s in the low-altitude areas and 2000s in the high-altitude areas during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 periods, the general trends of hydro–climatic variables keep consistent. This study benefits water resource management, socio–economic development, and sustainable agricultural planning in Tajikistan and its downstream countries.

scholarly journals Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shan Zou ◽  
Abuduwaili Jilili ◽  
Weili Duan ◽  
Philippe Maeyer ◽  
Tim de Voorde
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Effective Water ◽  
Syr Darya

Water resources are increasingly under stress in Central Asia because downstream countries are highly dependent on upstream countries. Water is essential for irrigation and is becoming scarcer due to climate change and human activities. Based on 20 hydrological stations, this study firstly analyzed the annual and seasonal spatial–temporal changes of the river discharges, precipitation, and temperature in the Syr Darya River Basin and then the possible relationships between these factors were detected. Finally, the potential reasons for the river discharge variations have been discussed. The results show that the river discharges in the upper stream of the basin had significantly risen from 1930 to 2006, mainly due to the increase in temperature (approximately 0.3 °C per decade), which accelerated the melting of glaciers, while it decreased in the middle and lower regions due to the rising irrigation. In the middle of the basin, the expansion of the construction land (128.83 km2/year) and agricultural land (66.68 km2/year) from 1992 to 2015 has significantly augmented the water consumption. The operations of reservoirs and irrigation canals significantly intercepted the river discharge from the upper streams, causing a sharp decline in the river discharges in the middle and lower reaches of the Syr Darya River in 1973. The outcomes obtained from this study allowed us to understand the changes in the river discharges and provided essential information for effective water resource management in the Syr Darya River Basin.

scholarly journals Juniper Tree-Ring Data from the Kuramin Range (Northern Tajikistan) Reveals Changing Summer Drought Signals in Western Central Asia

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Chen ◽  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Andrea Seim ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
Ruibo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
June July

Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of Central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here, we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the moisture-sensitive Zeravshan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica Kom.) from the Kuramin Range (Tajikistan) in western Central Asia, which is used to reveal past summer drought variability from 1650 to 2015 Common Era (CE). The chronology accounts for 40.5% of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods, including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875, and 1931–1987, and five wet periods, including 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930, and 1988–2015, were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and capture the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the spectral analysis indicates the existence of centennial (128 years), decadal (24.3 and 11.4 years), and interannual (8.0, 3.6, 2.9, and 2.0 years) cycles, which may be linked with climate forces, such as solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation systems.

Effects of Interactions Between Society and Environment on Policy in Water Resources Management: Exploring Scenarios of Natural and Human-Induced Shocks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iolanda Borzì ◽  
Murugesu Sivapalan ◽  
Brunella Bonaccorso ◽  
Alberto Viglione
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Water Dynamics ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management

<p>In many regions of the world, water supply is threatened by natural hazards such as floods and droughts, as well as by shocks induced by anthropogenic changes to water use. Lack of anticipation and/or preparation for these events can lead to delayed or insufficient responses to sudden or developing water crises, that sometimes can produce irrecoverable damage to the environment. In this work, a socio-hydrological approach to sustainable water resources management of the Alcantara River Basin in Sicily (Italy) is adopted that explicitly takes into account feedbacks between the natural and the human components that might arise from shocks to the water management system, including possible evolution of policy responses. The Alcantara River Basin is a groundwater-fed catchment which supplies many villages on the Ionian coast up to Messina city, mainly through the Alcantara aqueduct, but also agricultural areas and industries, including hydropower plants. It also hosts the Alcantara Fluvial Park, an important natural reserve. The Alcantara aqueduct also supplied the city of Messina during a temporary failure of its main aqueduct caused by a landslide in October 2015. The main purpose of the work is to use the socio-hydrological model as a “screening tool” to frame water resource management issues in a broad way and provide guidance to the community to identify aspects of societal behavior that need to evolve towards sustainable water resource management in order to withstand future shocks. This has been done by scenario simulations in conditions of a natural shock affecting the system (i.e. drought) and of a human-induced one (i.e. increase in groundwater extraction). Sensitivity analysis of the model social parameters revealed how the value attributed by the society to the environment and water resources use, its capacity to remember previous water crises and, in particular, its previous responses to shocks, can affect the system in a way that can produce paradoxical effects. Results show how a rapid decision-making strategy that may work in the short term, can be counter-productive when viewed over the long term and how a do-nothing decision during a water crisis could be highly damaging to the environment. For the above-mentioned reasons, this socio-hydrological approach can be considered as a useful tool to understand human-water dynamics and to support decision-makers in water resource management policies with a broad and long-term perspective.</p>

scholarly journals Humid and cold periods in the last 5600 years in Arid Central Asia revealed by palynology of Picea schrenkiana from Issyk-Kul

The Holocene ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 095968362097277
Author(s):  
Suzanne AG Leroy ◽  
Santiago R Giralt
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Bronze Age ◽  
Tien Shan ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Forest Belt ◽  
Pollen Record ◽  
Picea Schrenkiana ◽  
Arid Central Asia ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Ancient Silk Road

Central Asia, with its high mountains, despite its location between Europe and eastern Asia remains a data poor area. However, mountain glaciers are strongly affected by global change and have a wide-ranging impact. A new pollen record over the last 5600 years shows the extension of a dry Artemisia steppe around Lake Issyk-Kul, with a slightly wetter period from 4.5 to 2.7 ka BP (less Ephedra). Picea schrenkiana forest growing on north-facing slopes of the northern Tien Shan Range, are exposed to Westerlies-related precipitation. The pollen record of Picea is therefore a very good marker of wetter and cold conditions. A comparison to a nearby synchronous pollen record at a higher altitude indicates that the whole forest belt moved down, and that it was not a downwards extension of the lower forest limit only. Four cold and humid phases were evidenced over the last 5.6 ka: 5.5 ka, 4.2 ka and following centuries, 3.2 ka and following centuries (before the end of the Bronze Age) and finally the Little Ice Age, with the latter two being more strongly expressed. These climatic changes, in agreement with other Arid Central Asia investigations, corroborate the driving role of the Westerlies far inland. Human activities were more intense in the Mid and Late Bronze Age (4.5–3.2 ka) and in the last 800 years, confirmed by archaeological and historical information. Issyk-Kul and surrounding rich pastureland were most likely an important step in the ancient Silk Road.

scholarly journals Assessment of Drought Severity and Vulnerability in the Lam Phaniang River Basin, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 2743
Author(s):  
Kittiwet Kuntiyawichai ◽  
Sarayut Wongsasri
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Rcp 8.5

The Lam Phaniang River Basin is one of the areas in Northeast Thailand that experiences persistent drought almost every year. Therefore, this study was focused on the assessment of drought severity and vulnerability in the Lam Phaniang River Basin. The evaluation of drought severity was based on the Drought Hazard Index (DHI), which was derived from the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) calculated for 3-month (short-term), 12-month (intermediate-term), and 24-month (long-term) periods. Drought vulnerability was assessed by the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI), which relied on water shortage, water demand, and runoff calculated from the WEAP model, and the Gross Provincial Product (GPP) data. A drought risk map was generated by multiplying the DHI and DVI indices, and the drought risk level was then defined afterwards. The CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, and NorESM1-M global climate simulations, and the TerrSet software were used to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and land use during 2021–2100, respectively. The main findings compared to baseline (2000–2017) revealed that the average results of future rainfall, and maximum and minimum temperatures were expected to increase by 1.41 mm, and 0.015 °C/year and 0.019 °C/year, respectively, under RCP 4.5 and by 2.72 mm, and 0.034 °C/year and 0.044 °C/year, respectively, under RCP 8.5. During 2061–2080 under RCP 8.5, the future annual water demand and water shortage were projected to decrease by a maximum of 31.81% and 51.61%, respectively. Obviously, in the Lam Phaniang River Basin, the upper and lower parts were mainly dominated by low and moderate drought risk levels at all time scales under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Focusing on the central part, from 2021–2040, a very high risk of intermediate- and long-term droughts under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 dominated, and occurred under RCP 8.5 from 2041–2060. From 2061 to 2080, at all time scales, the highest risk was identified under RCP 4.5, while low and moderate levels were found under RCP 8.5. From 2081–2100, the central region was found to be at low and moderate risk at all time scales under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Eventually, the obtained findings will enable stakeholders to formulate better proactive drought monitoring, so that preparedness, adaptation, and resilience to droughts can be strengthened.

Difference and Linkage in Climate Change Modes from East and Central Asia at Multi-Time Scales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simin Peng ◽  
Yu Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract Previous studies argued that climate change modes from East and Central Asia (EA and CA) are out of phase at multi-time scales. However, in recent years, dry/wet changes in CA which contradict traditional views have provoked further discussion. The synchronization of rain and heat periods is a common climate phenomenon in most regions of East and Central Asia. In this paper, we selected EA and CA to carry out a comprehensive study of modern observations, paleoclimate records, and model simulations at multi-time scales. EOF analysis results of modern grid precipitation and self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) demonstrate the synchronization of rain and heat periods in EA and the east of CA at the short-term timescale. Meanwhile, paleoclimate records indicate parallel dry/wet changes in EA and the east of CA since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), also reflecting the synchronization of rain and heat periods at long-term timescales triggered by the insolation. The climate mechanism of difference and linkage in climate change modes from EA and CA, under the framework of the synchronization of rain and heat periods, is analyzed by PMIP3 simulations between the LGM and Mid-Holocene (MH). Overall, we suggest that, in addition to the regional differences caused by different circulation systems (the westerlies and Asian summer monsoon), climate change modes in EA and CA universally have inter-regional connections affected by the synchronization of rain and heat periods at multi-time scales.

Consistent long‐term Holocene warming trend at different elevations in the Altai Mountains in arid central Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 1036-1045
Author(s):  
Zhiguo Rao ◽  
Haichun Guo ◽  
Jiantao Cao ◽  
Fuxi Shi ◽  
Guodong Jia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Altai Mountains ◽  
Arid Central Asia

scholarly journals Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (21) ◽  
pp. 11328-11336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin T. Martin ◽  
Gregory T. Pederson ◽  
Connie A. Woodhouse ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Future Warming

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.

Drought and flood characterization and connection to climate variability in Pearl River Basin, Southern China using long-term GRACE and reanalysis data

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-63
Author(s):  
Zhiyong Huang ◽  
Jiu Jimmy Jiao ◽  
Xin Luo ◽  
Yun Pan ◽  
Taoyong Jin
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Pearl River Basin ◽  
Drought And Flood

Abstract:This study investigates drought and flood in the Pearl River Basin using long-term terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data from the mascon solutions based on the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite measurements (2002-2019) and the reanalysis data (1980-2019). To characterize drought, water storage deficit (WSD) and WSD index are used. The GRACE mascon solutions capture two major drought periods (2003-2006, 2009-2012) with similar onsets and endings over the last two decades, but show considerable differences in quantifying total drought severity. The reanalysis data significantly overestimates drought duration and severity during 1980-2000 owing to underestimated TWSA forced by incorrect precipitation data. Flood is monitored using a flood potential index (FPI) calculated using TWSA and precipitation. The GRACE mascon solutions identify four major flood events (FPI > 0.7) in Aug. 2002, Jun. 2008, and Jul. in 2006 and 2019. The flood potential is influenced by the precipitation in both the current and antecedent months. The spatial variability of the most recent flood in 2008 is analyzed, showing a similar spatial pattern between FPI and precipitation at monthly and sub-basin scales. The precipitation/TWSA in the PRB is mainly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TWSA exhibits a lag of 1-3 months responding to ENSO during 1980-2019. This study emphasizes the significance of removing water storage changes in large reservoirs before long-term drought, flood characterization and teleconnection analysis. This study highlights the intensifying drought conditions in the PRB over the last four decades under the circumstances of more frequent human activities (reservoir construction and regulation) and the complex changing climate system.

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