scholarly journals Estimation of 10-Hour Fuel Moisture Content Using Meteorological Data: A Model Inter-Comparison Study

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 982
Author(s):  
HoonTaek Lee ◽  
Myoungsoo Won ◽  
Sukhee Yoon ◽  
Keunchang Jang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Modeling ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Correction Coefficient ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Forest fire modeling often requires estimates of fuel moisture status. Among the various fuel variables used for fire modeling studies, the 10-h fuel moisture content (10-h FMC) is a promising predictor since it can be automatically measured in real time at study sites, yielding more information for fire models. Here, the performance of 10-h FMC models based on three different approaches, including regression (MREG), machine learning algorithms (MML) with random forest and support vector machine, and a process-based model (MFSMM), were compared. In addition, whole-year models of each type were compared with their respective seasonal models to explore whether the development of separate seasonal models yielded better estimates. Meteorological conditions and 10-h FMC were measured each minute for 18 months in and near a forest site and used for constructing and examining the 10-h FMC models. In the assessments, MML showed the best performance (R2 = 0.77–0.82 and root mean squared error [RMSE] = 2.05–2.84%). The introduction of the correction coefficient into MREG improved its estimates (R2 improved from 0.56–0.58 to 0.68–0.70 and RMSE improved from 3.13–3.85% to 2.64–3.27%) by reducing the errors associated with high 10-h FMC values. MFSMM showed the worst performance (R2 = 0.41–0.43 and RMSE = 3.70–4.39%), which could possibly be attributed to the lack of radiation input from the study sites as well as the particular fuel moisture stick sensor that was used. Whole-year models and seasonal models showed almost equal performance because 10-h FMC varied in response to atmospheric moisture conditions rather than specific seasonal patterns. The adoption of a hybrid modeling approach that blends machine-learning and process-based approaches may yield better predictability and interpretability. This study provides additional evidence of the lagged response of 10-h FMC after rainfall, and suggests a new way of accounting for this response in a regression model. Our approach using comparisons among models can be utilized for other fire modeling studies, including those involving fire danger ratings.

Predicting 1-H Dead Fuel Moisture Content at Regional Scales Using Machine Learning from Himawari-8 Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunquan Fan ◽  
Binbin He ◽  
Peng Kong ◽  
Hao Xu ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Using Machine Learning Algorithms on Prediction of Stock Price

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-99
Author(s):  
Li-Pang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In this paper, we investigate analysis and prediction of the time-dependent data. We focus our attention on four different stocks are selected from Yahoo Finance historical database. To build up models and predict the future stock price, we consider three different machine learning techniques including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). By treating close price, open price, daily low, daily high, adjusted close price, and volume of trades as predictors in machine learning methods, it can be shown that the prediction accuracy is improved.

A Comparative Study of Different Machine Learning Algorithms for Disease Prediction

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Anantvir Singh Romana
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Subsequent Treatment ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Disease Prediction ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Neural Network Classifiers ◽  
Diagnostic Detection

Accurate diagnostic detection of the disease in a patient is critical and may alter the subsequent treatment and increase the chances of survival rate. Machine learning techniques have been instrumental in disease detection and are currently being used in various classification problems due to their accurate prediction performance. Various techniques may provide different desired accuracies and it is therefore imperative to use the most suitable method which provides the best desired results. This research seeks to provide comparative analysis of Support Vector Machine, Naïve bayes, J48 Decision Tree and neural network classifiers breast cancer and diabetes datsets.

scholarly journals Predicting Future Occurrence of Acute Hypotensive Episodes Using Noninvasive and Invasive Features

2021 ◽  
Vol 186 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 445-451
Author(s):  
Yifei Sun ◽  
Navid Rashedi ◽  
Vikrant Vaze ◽  
Parikshit Shah ◽  
Ryan Halter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Real World ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Learning Technologies ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Continuous Map

ABSTRACT Introduction Early prediction of the acute hypotensive episode (AHE) in critically ill patients has the potential to improve outcomes. In this study, we apply different machine learning algorithms to the MIMIC III Physionet dataset, containing more than 60,000 real-world intensive care unit records, to test commonly used machine learning technologies and compare their performances. Materials and Methods Five classification methods including K-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, and a deep learning method called long short-term memory are applied to predict an AHE 30 minutes in advance. An analysis comparing model performance when including versus excluding invasive features was conducted. To further study the pattern of the underlying mean arterial pressure (MAP), we apply a regression method to predict the continuous MAP values using linear regression over the next 60 minutes. Results Support vector machine yields the best performance in terms of recall (84%). Including the invasive features in the classification improves the performance significantly with both recall and precision increasing by more than 20 percentage points. We were able to predict the MAP with a root mean square error (a frequently used measure of the differences between the predicted values and the observed values) of 10 mmHg 60 minutes in the future. After converting continuous MAP predictions into AHE binary predictions, we achieve a 91% recall and 68% precision. In addition to predicting AHE, the MAP predictions provide clinically useful information regarding the timing and severity of the AHE occurrence. Conclusion We were able to predict AHE with precision and recall above 80% 30 minutes in advance with the large real-world dataset. The prediction of regression model can provide a more fine-grained, interpretable signal to practitioners. Model performance is improved by the inclusion of invasive features in predicting AHE, when compared to predicting the AHE based on only the available, restricted set of noninvasive technologies. This demonstrates the importance of exploring more noninvasive technologies for AHE prediction.

Efficient detection of hacker community based on twitter data using complex networks and machine learning algorithm

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Ahmed Al-Tarawneh ◽  
Ja’afer Al-Saraireh
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Complex Networks ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Efficient Detection ◽  
Suggested Keywords

Twitter is one of the most popular platforms used to share and post ideas. Hackers and anonymous attackers use these platforms maliciously, and their behavior can be used to predict the risk of future attacks, by gathering and classifying hackers’ tweets using machine-learning techniques. Previous approaches for detecting infected tweets are based on human efforts or text analysis, thus they are limited to capturing the hidden text between tweet lines. The main aim of this research paper is to enhance the efficiency of hacker detection for the Twitter platform using the complex networks technique with adapted machine learning algorithms. This work presents a methodology that collects a list of users with their followers who are sharing their posts that have similar interests from a hackers’ community on Twitter. The list is built based on a set of suggested keywords that are the commonly used terms by hackers in their tweets. After that, a complex network is generated for all users to find relations among them in terms of network centrality, closeness, and betweenness. After extracting these values, a dataset of the most influential users in the hacker community is assembled. Subsequently, tweets belonging to users in the extracted dataset are gathered and classified into positive and negative classes. The output of this process is utilized with a machine learning process by applying different algorithms. This research build and investigate an accurate dataset containing real users who belong to a hackers’ community. Correctly, classified instances were measured for accuracy using the average values of K-nearest neighbor, Naive Bayes, Random Tree, and the support vector machine techniques, demonstrating about 90% and 88% accuracy for cross-validation and percentage split respectively. Consequently, the proposed network cyber Twitter model is able to detect hackers, and determine if tweets pose a risk to future institutions and individuals to provide early warning of possible attacks.

Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Lane-Change Maneuvers using the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study Data

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110035
Author(s):  
Anik Das ◽  
Mohamed M. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Adaptive Boosting ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Naturalistic Driving Study ◽  
Naturalistic Driving ◽  
Change Prediction

Accurate lane-change prediction information in real time is essential to safely operate Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) on the roadways, especially at the early stage of AVs deployment, where there will be an interaction between AVs and human-driven vehicles. This study proposed reliable lane-change prediction models considering features from vehicle kinematics, machine vision, driver, and roadway geometric characteristics using the trajectory-level SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study and Roadway Information Database. Several machine learning algorithms were trained, validated, tested, and comparatively analyzed including, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Naïve Bayes (NB) based on six different sets of features. In each feature set, relevant features were extracted through a wrapper-based algorithm named Boruta. The results showed that the XGBoost model outperformed all other models in relation to its highest overall prediction accuracy (97%) and F1-score (95.5%) considering all features. However, the highest overall prediction accuracy of 97.3% and F1-score of 95.9% were observed in the XGBoost model based on vehicle kinematics features. Moreover, it was found that XGBoost was the only model that achieved a reliable and balanced prediction performance across all six feature sets. Furthermore, a simplified XGBoost model was developed for each feature set considering the practical implementation of the model. The proposed prediction model could help in trajectory planning for AVs and could be used to develop more reliable advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) in a cooperative connected and automated vehicle environment.

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