scholarly journals Age-Period-Cohort Analysis on the Time Trend of Hepatitis B Incidence in Four Prefectures of Southern Xinjiang, China from 2005 to 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 3886
Author(s):  
Weidong Ji ◽  
Na Xie ◽  
Daihai He ◽  
Weiming Wang ◽  
Hui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis B ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Information Management System ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Infectious Disease Reporting ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Southern Xinjiang

Objective: The influence of age, period, and cohort on Hepatitis B (HB) incidence in four prefectures of southern Xinjiang, China is still not clear. This paper aims to analyze the long-term trend of the HB incidence in four prefectures of southern Xinjiang, China and to estimate the independent impact of age, period and cohort, as well as to predict the development trend of HB incidence in male and female groups, then to identify the targeted population for HB screening by the model fitting and prediction. Method: The data were from the Case List of HB Cases Reported in the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook of China. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the impacts of age, period and cohort on HB incidence, which could be used to predict the HB incidence in specific age groups of men and women. Results: Under the influence of age effect, the incidence of HB in males had two peaks (20–35 years old and 60–80 years old), the influence of age effect on the incidence of HB in females was lower than that of males and the obvious peak was between 20–30 years old; the period effect on the HB incidence in males and females fluctuated greatly and the fluctuation degree of influence on males was bigger than that of women. The HB incidence among males and females in the four regions tended to be affected by cohort effect, which reached a peak after 1990 and then declined sharply and gradually became stabilized. By predicting the HB incidence from 2018 to 2022, we found that there were significant differences in HB incidence among people over 35 years old, under 35 years old and the whole population in four prefectures of southern Xinjiang, China. Conclusions: Although the incidence of HB in some regions shows a downward trend, there is still an obvious upward trend of incidences in other places. In our paper, results indicate that the burden of HB incidence may be extended in the future, so we hope this can draw the attention of relative departments. These results reveal the differences of incidence between males and females as well, so respective measures of the two groups’ functions are essential.

scholarly journals All-Cause and Cancer Mortality Trends in Macheng, China (1984–2013): An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2068
Author(s):  
Chunhui Li ◽  
Songbo Hu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Males And Females

The aim was to study the variation trends of all-cause and cancer mortality during 1984–2013 in Macheng City, China. The mortality data were collected from Macheng City disease surveillance points system and Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The model life table system was used to adjust mortality rates due to an under-reporting problem. An age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect of all-cause mortality and cancer mortality for males and females. Age effect of all-cause mortality for both sexes increased with age, while the age effect of cancer mortality for both sexes reached a peak at the age group of 55–59 years old and then decreased. The relative risks (RRs) of all-cause mortality for males and females declined with the period and decreased by 51.13% and 63.27% during the whole study period, respectively. Furthermore, the period effect of cancer mortality in both sexes decreased at first and then increased. The cohort effect of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born after 1904 presented the pattern of “rise first and then fall,” and decreased by 82.18% and 90.77% from cohort 1904–1908 to 1989–1993, respectively; especially, the risk of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born before 1949 was much higher than that for those born after 1949.

scholarly journals Suicide Mortality in Canada and Quebec, 1926-2008: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Thibodeau
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Suicide Rates

Suicide rates raise with age has remained consistent for more than 150 years but over the last 50 years major changes occurred. We examined Age-Period-Cohort (APC) effects on suicide mortality rate by gender in Canada and in Quebec from 1926 to 2008. Durkheim theoretical framework is used to interpret our findings. Descriptive analysis and APC models relating to the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) were used to assess these effects. IE model shows suicide net age effect for men in Canada and Quebec as death rate increased until 25 years old before reaching a plateau. For women it’s an inverted "U" shape peaking at mid-adulthood. While period effect differs, a net cohort effect is found for men born in 1941, and women in 1981 until most recent cohorts. 

scholarly journals Support for Marijuana (Cannabis) Legalization: Untangling Age, Period, and Cohort Effects

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
William Campbell ◽  
Jean Twenge ◽  
Nathan Carter
Keyword(s):  
Hierarchical Models ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
General Social Survey ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Survey Sample ◽  
Nationally Representative

In three large, nationally representative surveys of U.S. 12th graders, college students, and adults (N = 9 million) conducted 1968–2015, Americans became significantly more supportive of legal marijuana (cannabis) starting in the mid-1980’s. Hierarchical models using age-period-cohort analysis on the adult (General Social Survey) sample showed that the increased support for legalization is primarily a time period effect rather than generational or age effect; thus, Americans of all ages became more supportive of legal marijuana. Among 12th graders, support for marijuana legalization was closely linked to perceptions of marijuana safety.

scholarly journals Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5607
Author(s):  
Luqi Wang ◽  
Weibing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
The Past

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.

scholarly journals Gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence among adolescents: an age-period-cohort analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Hyun Hwang ◽  
Soon-Woo Park
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Secular Trend ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Survey Period ◽  
Cohort Groups ◽  
Gender Differential

Abstract Background There has been a gender difference in adolescents’ lifetime smoking prevalence trends over the last 10 years. This study aimed to explain the gender differential secular trend in adolescents’ lifetime smoking prevalence using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and suggests possible causes for this trend, including Korean tobacco control policies during the last 10 years. Methods We utilized the 2006–2017 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey enrolling grades 7 to 12. Using year of survey and year of entry into middle school, we classified 859,814 students who had ever smoked into 6 age groups, 12 periods, and 17 school admission cohorts. Using APC analysis with the intrinsic estimator method, the effects of age, period, and school admission cohort on lifetime smoking prevalence were analyzed according to gender. Results Overall, there was a similar tendency of all the three effects on lifetime smoking prevalence between genders: an increasing age effect with grade, negative period effect with survey period, and similar pattern of school admission cohort groups. However, compared to boys, girls experienced reduction in the increasing age effect in the 12th grade, consistent and steeper decreasing trend in the period effect from 2006 to 2016, and shorter and lower school admission cohort effect. Conclusions Gender differential response to chronological changes in lifetime smoking prevalence was measured by the APC effect, which affected the gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence. Therefore, considering the APC effect could help us understand the trend in smoking rates, as well as the contextual factors that affect it.

Blood catalase and haematocrit values in a breeding colony of Dutch-belted rabbits

2001 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. H. Foote ◽  
E. Hare
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Correlation ◽  
Seminal Plasma ◽  
Catalase Activity ◽  
Preliminary Evidence ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Breeding Colony ◽  
First Report ◽  
Rabbit Blood ◽  
Different Ages ◽  
Males And Females

Rabbit seminal plasma catalase is much higher than in the semen of other mammals, and differences appear to be inherited. Because of the scarcity of information on rabbit blood catalase and haematocrit in Dutch-belted rabbits, an investigation of possible effects of gender, age and genetics on these variables was undertaken. There were 191 rabbits sampled at 2-3 months, 130 at 12 months and 61 at 18-24 months of age. There was no age effect on the haematocrit values and on blood catalase activity. At 12 months of age males had an average haematocrit value of 44% compared with 40% for females ( P < 0.05). Corresponding average catalase values were 431 and 356 units/ml of blood ( P < 0.05). Also catalase was measured in the semen and blood of 34 males, and males differed in both their blood and semen catalase activity ( P < 0.05). The correlation between the two traits was r = 0.44. Heritability ( h2) estimates, based on 231 rabbits were 0.40 for blood catalase activity, and 0.26 for haematocrit. The genetic correlation between the two variables was 0.83 ( P < 0.05). These studies are consistent with the literature in that female rabbits have a slightly lower haematocrit value than males, and this is associated with a lower catalase activity. This appears to be the first report of a study that compares rabbit blood catalase in males and females of different ages. Preliminary evidence that differences may have a heritable basis is consistent with previous studies on rabbit semen catalase.

scholarly journals Age period cohort analysis of chewing ability in Korea from 2007 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam-Hee Kim ◽  
Ichiro Kawachi
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Chewing Ability ◽  
Main Variable ◽  
Observation Period

AbstractThere have been marked improvements in oral health in Korea during the past 10 years, including chewing ability. We sought to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects in chewing ability between 2007 and 2018. We analyzed data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The main variable was chewing difficulty, which was assessed among participants aged 20 years and older. APC analysis revealed three trends in chewing difficulty: (1) there was an increase in chewing difficulty starting at around 60 years of age (age effect), (2) there was a steady decrease in chewing difficulty during the observation period (period effect), and (3) chewing ability improved with each successive generation born after 1951 (cohort effect). Regarding recent improvements in chewing ability, cohort effects were somewhat more important than period effects.

scholarly journals Rhythmicity of patient flow in an acute medical unit: relationship to hospital occupancy, seven-day working, and the effect of COVID-19

QJM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S J Dauncey ◽  
P A Kelly ◽  
D Baykov ◽  
A C Skeldon ◽  
M B Whyte
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Fourier Transforms ◽  
Patient Flow ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Information Management System ◽  
Hospital Performance ◽  
Bed Occupancy ◽  
Urban Hospital ◽  
Medical Unit ◽  
Acute Medical Unit

Abstract Background The Acute Medical Unit (AMU) provides care for unscheduled hospital admissions. Seven-day Consultant presence and morning AMU discharges have been advocated to improve hospital bed management. Aims To determine whether a later time of daily peak AMU occupancy correlates with measures of hospital stress; whether seven-day Consultant presence, for COVID-19, abolished weekly periodicity of discharges. Design Retrospective cohort analysis Methods Anonymised AMU admission and discharge times were retrieved from the Profile Information Management System (PIMS), at a large, urban hospital from 14th April 2014—31st December 2018 and 20th March—2nd May 2020 (COVID-19 peak). Minute-by-minute admission and discharge times were combined to construct a running total of AMU bed occupancy. Fourier transforms were used to determine periodicity. We tested association between i) average AMU occupancy and ii) time of peak AMU occupancy, with measures of hospital stress (total medical bed occupancy and ‘medical outliers’ on non-medical wards). Results Daily, weekly and seasonal patterns of AMU bed occupancy were evident. Timing of AMU peak occupancy was unrelated to each measure of hospital stress: total medical inpatients (Spearman’s rho, rs=0.04, P = 0.24); number of medical outliers (rs=-0.06, P = 0.05). During COVID-19, daily bed occupancy was similar, with continuation of greater Friday and Monday discharges than the weekend. Conclusions Timing of peak AMU occupancy did not alter with hospital stress. Efforts to increase morning AMU discharges are likely to have little effect on hospital performance. Seven-day Consultant presence did not abolish weekly periodicity of discharges – other factors influence weekend discharges.

scholarly journals Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China From 1990 to 2019: a Joinpoint and Age-period-cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufeng Wang ◽  
Xueying Huang ◽  
Huan Ma ◽  
Suru Yue ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Disease Pattern ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Disease Study

Abstract Background Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individuals and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear. Methods Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and relative risk were calculated using joinpoint regression and an age–period–cohort model, respectively. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. The age effect exerted the most significant impact on the incidence of migraine. The period effect showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of the cohort effect, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the occurrence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts. Conclusion Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. An intensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.

scholarly journals Historical Trends in Incidence of Breast Cancer in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Los Angeles, 1973–2012: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang-Hang Luan ◽  
Li-Sha Luo ◽  
Zhi-Yan Lu
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
White Women ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Breast Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the long-term trends of breast cancer incidence in Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Los Angeles (LA).Methods: Data were obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was conducted by joinpoint regression analysis, and the age, period and cohort effects were estimated by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.Results: The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) in LA were higher than Shanghai and Hong Kong. During 1988–2012, the ASIRs significantly decreased in white women in LA (AAPC = −0.6%, 95% CI: −0.9% to −0.4%) while increased in Shanghai (2.5%: 2.1%–2.9%) and Hong Kong (2.2%: 2.0%–2.5%). The APC analysis revealed significantly increased effects of age and period, and decreased effect of birth cohort.Conclusion: Although age and cohort effects were relatively strong, the period effect may be the key factor affecting trends of incidence, which may be caused by increasing exposures to carcinogens and risk factors. Therefore, more effective measures should be carried out promptly to protect high-risk populations such as elder women, to avoid exposures to risk factors of breast cancer.

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