Simulation of Land Use Pattern Evolution from a Multi-Scenario Perspective: A Case Study of Suzhou City in Anhui Province, China

Land use/land cover change is a frontier issue in the field of geography research. Taking Suzhou City in Anhui Province as the research case, based on thematic mapper /enhanced thematic mapper+ (TM/ETM+) remote sensing data from 1998 to 2018, through the transfer matrix model and modified conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent (CLUE-S) model, the simulation of the land use landscape pattern evolution was studied from a multi-scenario perspective. The results showed that in the past 20 years, landscape patterns have undergone spatial–temporal conversion, which was mainly manifested as the evolution from a cultivated land landscape and other agricultural land to construction land, and there was some transformation between other landscape types, but the transformation degree was not significant. The spatial autocorrelation factor was introduced to correct the CLUE-S model, and the Kappa index reached 0.83, indicating that the modified CLUE-S model had a good simulation accuracy. (I) In the cultivated land protection scenario, limiting the conversion of basic farmland use, and by 2028, the proportion of cultivated land increased by 5.23%, distributed in eastern Suzhou City; (II) in the economic development scenario, by 2028, the construction land area increased by 14.58%, and was distributed in the surrounding regions of the built-up areas; and (III) in the ecological protection scenario, by 2028, wood land, water, and other ecological protection land area increased, and were distributed in the central and eastern part of Suzhou City. Research can provide useful decision-making support for land use optimization and remediation.

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Estimation of ecosystem services value based on land use and cover change information derived from remote sensing data

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202019804026 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 198 ◽

pp. 04026

Author(s):

Liyan Wang ◽

Chao Chen ◽

Kai Wang

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Quantitative Estimation ◽

Research Area ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Land Area ◽

Construction Land ◽

Ecosystem Services Value ◽

Land Use And Cover

It is an effective method to study the value change of ecological services based on land use and cover change information. This paper analyzed the land use and cover change information in the research area, which is based on the remote sensing images and social statistics data of 2005, 2010, and 2015, and then, quantitative estimation of the ecosystem service value was performed. Yangtze-Huaihe river basin, China is a fragile ecological area, which is selected as the research area. During 2005-2015, the area of cultivated land and construction land was the main land use types in the study area, the land use and cover change in the study area were obvious, which was characterized by the increasing of construction land area and the decreasing of cultivated land area, and the total ecosystem services value in the research area has been decreasing continuously, the value from 34.376 billion yuan in 2005 to 26.161 billion yuan in 2015.

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Scenario Simulation and Landscape Pattern Dynamic Changes of Land Use in Mining Area

10.21203/rs.3.rs-196054/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Xiaoyan Chang ◽

Feng Zhang ◽

Kanglin Cong ◽

Xiaojun Liu

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Mining Area ◽

Tidal Wetland ◽

Kappa Index ◽

Land Use Pattern ◽

Construction Land ◽

Farmland Protection ◽

Ecological Protection ◽

S Model ◽

Rural Construction

Abstract In this study, we selected 11 townships with severe ground subsidence located in Weishan County as the study area. Based on the interpretation data of Landsat images, the Binary logistic regression model was used to explore the relationship between land use change and the related 7 driving factors at a scale of 60m * 60m. Using the CLUE-S model, combined with Markov model, the simulation of land use under three scenarios–namely, natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario and farmland protection scenario–were explored. Firstly, using land use map in 2005 as input data, we predicted the land use spatial distribution pattern in 2016. By comparing the actual land use map in 2016 with the simulated map of land use pattern in 2016, the prediction accuracy was evaluated based on the Kappa index. Then, after validation, the distribution of land use pattern in 2025 under the three scenarios was simulated. The results showed the following: (1) The driving factors had satisfactory explanatory power for land use changes. The Kappa index was 0.82, which indicated good simulation accuracy of the CLUE-S model. (2) Under the three scenarios, the area of other agricultural land and water body showed an increasing trend; while the area of farmland, urban and rural construction land, subsided land with water accumulation, and tidal wetland showed a decreasing trend, and the area of urban and rural construction land and tidal wetland decreased the fastest. (3) Under the ecological protection scenario, the farmland decreased faster than the other two scenarios, and most of the farmland was converted to ecological land such as garden land and water body. Under the farmland protection scenario, the area of tidal wetland decreased the fastest, followed by urban and rural construction land. We anticipate that our study results will provide useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the mining area.

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Difference Analysis of Cultivated Land Changes and Economic Development in Suzhou and Wuhu, Anhui Province

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.726-731.4769 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 726-731 ◽

pp. 4769-4772

Author(s):

Hai Min Su

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Anhui Province ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Land Resources ◽

Land Area ◽

Suzhou City ◽

In The Beginning ◽

The Relationship ◽

Research Period ◽

Intensive Development

There are clear differences in the relationship between changes in cultivated land use and economic development in different regions. Based on statistical data, we analyzed the characteristics of changes in cultivated land, the influence of regional difference of economic development level for cultivated land resources in Suzhou and Wuhu of Anhui Province from 1991 to 2011 in this paper. At the same time, we quantitatively analyzed relationship between cultivated land and economic development and compared the consumption of cultivated land per unit of GDP for two regions. Results show that: with the economic development, cultivated land area has decreased in all, which cultivated land area change slowly in the beginning and the end and speed in middle during the research period. The area of occupied cultivated land decreased due to increasing GDP continuously with economic development, but at different rates in the two regions. Suzhou City pay cultivated land resources for per unit economic growth far more than Wuhu City, but this phenomenon eased because of attention to intensive development, late.

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Changes of Land Use and its Prediction Based on CA-Markov Model in the Coastal Zone of Yancheng

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.726-731.4929 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 726-731 ◽

pp. 4929-4932

Author(s):

Xian Bin Sun

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Markov Model ◽

Coastal Zone ◽

Landscape Patterns ◽

Space Distribution ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Natural Wetland ◽

Artificial Wetland ◽

Wetland Area ◽

Construction Land

For studying the influence of human activity on the change of land use type and ecological environment in coastal region, the coastal zone of Yancheng was selected to analyze the change of land use and spatial landscape pattern in the past 17 years by using geographic information system (GIS). The Markov model was applied to predict land use variation in the following 10 years. The results showed that: The land use structure in the coastal areas of Yancheng has undergone great changes from 1991 to 2008. It is demonstrated that the percentage of farmland area ascended from 36.42%. to 50.17%., and the artificial wetland area ascended from 9.96% to 20.22%,while the percentage of natural wetland area declined from 46.41% to 23.01%. Construction land increased five times (85.29km2) . Nature wetland, farmland and artificial wetland were the main land use types of research area with obvious reciprocal transformation. Nature wetland was mainly transferred to farmland and artificial wetland, and farmland was mainly transferred to artificial wetland and construction land in 1991-2008. The three types of time-space distribution extended to the coastal zone gradually. And the land exploitation activities became increasingly intensive. A series of landscape patterns changed because of severe human disturbance, such as obvious fragmentation, the dominance decrease, and the diversity and evenness increase, the degree of space across of the nature wetland and the artificial wetland increase. As a result of landscape fragmentation,ecological function in a landscape was declined. The simulated result by CA-Markov model indicated that cultivated land and artificial land continued to rise, the annual average increase rate of construction land was twice the earlier period and the reducing speed of natural wetland was 56.67% of the earlier stage. Between 1997 and 2018, the three types of land use (cultivated land, natural land and artificial wetland) have all extended to the coastal zone.

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Scenario simulation of land use and land cover change in mining area

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-92299-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Xiaoyan Chang ◽

Feng Zhang ◽

Kanglin Cong ◽

Xiaojun Liu

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Mining Area ◽

Tidal Wetland ◽

Kappa Index ◽

Construction Land ◽

Farmland Protection ◽

Ecological Protection ◽

S Model ◽

Rural Construction

AbstractIn this study, we selected 11 townships with severe ground subsidence located in Weishan County as the study area. Based on the interpretation data of Landsat images, the Binary logistic regression model was used to explore the relationship between land use and land cover (LULC) change and the related 7 driving factors at a resolution of 60 m. Using the CLUE-S model, combined with Markov model, the simulation of LULC under three scenarios—namely, natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario and farmland protection scenario—were explored. Firstly, using LULC map in 2005 as input data, we predicted the land use spatial distribution pattern in 2016. By comparing the actual LULC map in 2016 with the simulated map in 2016, the prediction accuracy was evaluated based on the Kappa index. Then, after validation, the spatial distribution pattern of LULC in 2025 under the three scenarios was simulated. The results showed the following: (1) The driving factors had satisfactory explanatory power for LULC changes. The Kappa index was 0.82, which indicated good simulation accuracy of the CLUE-S model. (2) Under the three scenarios, the area of other agricultural land and water body showed an increasing trend; while the area of farmland, urban and rural construction land, subsided land with water accumulation, and tidal wetland showed a decreasing trend, and the area of urban and rural construction land and tidal wetland decreased the fastest. (3) Under the ecological protection scenario, the farmland decreased faster than the other two scenarios, and most of the farmland was converted to ecological land such as garden land and water body. Under the farmland protection scenario, the area of tidal wetland decreased the fastest, followed by urban and rural construction land. We anticipate that our study results will provide useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the mining area.

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Suzhou Urban Land-Use Change and its Prediction Analysis

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.174-177.3539 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 174-177 ◽

pp. 3539-3542 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Gang Fang ◽

Juan Yang ◽

Qi Li

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Markov Model ◽

Water Body ◽

Dynamic Change ◽

Urban Land ◽

Urban Land Use ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Land Area ◽

Body Area ◽

Construction Land

Based on the 2000 ETM+ and 2009 TM images, the Suzhou urban district as the research object, supported by the remote sensing software, using the support vector machine (SVM) classification to extract the urban landscape types in 2000-2009, analyzing the land-use dynamic change and mutual transformation in Suzhou urbanization process from the land-use type transition matrix, dynamic degree, development degree and consumption reduction degree, and using the Markov model to forecast the Suzhou urban land-use dynamic change trend in 2009, 2018, 2027 and 2036, for the future Suzhou land-use dynamic monitoring, land-use planning and adjustment, ecological environment regulation and restoration, and land resource sustainable utilization to provide the theoretical basis. The results show that Suzhou urban land-use occurred to a large changes from 2000 to 2009, the construction land area increased significantly, the cultivated land area reduced sharply, the wood land and water body area slightly increased. According to the Markov model prediction results from 2009 to 2036, the cultivated land and wood land area will continue to reduce, the construction land and water body area will continue to increase, which makes the contradiction between the cultivated land protection and the urban expansion will become more prominent.

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Modeling Land Use Changes and their Impacts on Non-Point Source Pollution in a Southeast China Coastal Watershed

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph15081593 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 15 (8) ◽

pp. 1593 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Xin Zhang ◽

Lin Zhou ◽

Yuqi Liu

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Point Source ◽

River Basin ◽

Landscape Metrics ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Landscape Patterns ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Point Source Pollution ◽

Coastal Watershed ◽

Non Point Source Pollution

Changes in landscape patterns in a river basin play a crucial role in the change on load of non-point source pollution. The spatial distribution of various land use types affects the transmission of non-point source pollutants on the basis of source-sink theory in landscape ecology. Jiulong River basin in southeast of China was selected as the study area in this paper. Aiming to analyze the correlation between changing landscape patterns and load of non-point source pollution in this area, traditional landscape metrics and the improved location-weighted landscape contrast index based on the minimum hydrological response unit (HRULCI) were applied in this study, in combination with remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technique. The results of the landscape metrics showed the enhanced fragmentation extent and the decreasing polymerization degree of the overall landscape in the watershed. High values of HRULCI were concentrated in cultivated land, while low HRULCI values mostly appeared in forestland, indicating that cultivated land substantially enhanced non-point source pollution, while forestland inhibited the pollution process.

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Relating Land Use/Cover and Landscape Pattern to the Water Quality under the Simulation of SWAT in a Reservoir Basin, Southeast China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su131911067 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 11067

Author(s):

Kaige Lei ◽

Yifan Wu ◽

Feng Li ◽

Jiayu Yang ◽

Mingtao Xiang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Google Earth ◽

Landscape Patterns ◽

Buffer Size ◽

Construction Land ◽

Drinking Water Standard ◽

Reservoir Basin ◽

The Impact ◽

Cover Pattern

Understanding the relationship between land use/cover pattern and water quality could provide guidelines for non-point source pollution and facilitate sustainable development. The previous studies mainly relate the land use/cover of the entire region to the water quality at the monitoring sites, but the water quality at monitoring sites did not totally reflect the water environment of the entire basin. In this study, the land use/cover was monitored on Google Earth Engine in Tang-Pu Reservoir basin, China. In order to reflect the water quality of the whole study area, the spatial distribution of the determinants for water quality there, i.e., the total nitrogen and total phosphorus (TN&TP), were simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The redundancy analysis explored the correlations between land use/cover pattern and simulated TN&TP. The results showed that: (1) From 2009 to 2019, forest was the dominant land cover, and there was little land use/cover change. The landscape fragmentation increased, and the connectivity decreased. (2) About 25% TP concentrations and nearly all the TN concentrations at the monitoring points did not reach drinking water standard, which means nitrogen and phosphorus pollution were the most serious problems. The highest output per unit TN&TP simulated by SWAT were 44.50 kg/hm2 and 9.51 kg/hm2 and occurred in areas with highly fragile landscape patterns. (3) TN&TP correlated positively with cultivated and construction land but negatively with forest. The correlation between forest and TN&TP summited at 500–700-m buffer and construction land at 100-m buffer. As the buffer size increased, the correlation between the cultivated land, and the TN weakened, while the correlation with the TP increased. TN&TP correlated positively with the Shannon’s Diversity Index and negatively with the Contagion Index. This study provides a new perspective for exporting the impact of land use/cover pattern on water quality.

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Spatial Differentiation of Non-Grain Production on Cultivated Land and Its Driving Factors in Coastal China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su132313064 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 13064

Author(s):

Yan Sun ◽

Yuanyuan Chang ◽

Junna Liu ◽

Xiaoping Ge ◽

Gang-Jun Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Spatial Heterogeneity ◽

Spatial Differentiation ◽

Driving Factors ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Grain Production ◽

Land Area ◽

Bottom Line ◽

Land Transfer ◽

Coastal China

The rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in coastal China in the past 20 years has exerted a huge squeezing effect on agricultural land use. The phenomenon of non-grain production on cultivated land (NGP) is very common, seriously threatening the protection of high-quality arable land and national food security. In order to find out the overall situation regarding NGP on cultivated land in coastal China, this study revealed the spatial differentiation of NGP and its main driving factors by spatial autocorrelation analysis, multiple linear regression models and geographically weighted regression analysis (GWR). The results show that: (1) in 2018, the non-grain cultivated land area of 11 provinces along the coast of China was about 15.82 × 106 hm2, accounting for 33.65% of the total cultivated land area. (2) The NGP rate in 11 provinces gradually decreased from south to north, but the NGP area showed two peak centers in Guangxi province and Shandong province, then decreased gradually outwards. (3) The low economic benefit of the planting industry (per capita GDP and urban-to-rural disposable income ratio) was the most important driving force, leading to the spatial differentiation of NGP, while the number of rural laborers and land transfer areas also acted as the main driving factors for the spatial differentiation of NGP. However, the influence of each driving factor has obvious spatial heterogeneity. The non-grained area and the non-grain production rate at the municipal level were completely different from those at the provincial level, and the spatial heterogeneity was more prominent. In the future, the local government should control the disorganized spread of NGP, scientifically set the bottom line of NGP, reduce the external pressure of NGP, regulate multi-party land transfer behavior, and strengthen land-use responsibilities. This study can provide a scientific foundation for adjusting land-use planning and cultivated land protection policies in China and other developing countries.

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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Water Table Depth Associated with Changing Agricultural Land Use in an Arid Zone Oasis

Water ◽

10.3390/w11040673 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 673 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mireguli Ainiwaer ◽

Jianli Ding ◽

Jingjie Wang ◽

Nasiman Nasierding

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Table ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Alluvial Fan ◽

Arid Zones ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Spatiotemporal Variations ◽

Land Area ◽

Inner Parts

Investigating spatiotemporal dynamics and varying relationships between water table depth (WTD) and land use changes is critical for efficient groundwater management and land use planning in arid zones. The primary objective of the present study is to combine satellite and field measured data to quantitatively analyze variations in WTD and its relationship with land use change in the Ogan–Kucha River Oasis in the northwest arid zones of China, and reveal the spatial heterogeneity and variations in the abovementioned relationship at spatiotemporal scales. The spatiotemporal variations in WTD and land use change at different time intervals (1997–2007, 2007–2017, and 1997–2017) were analyzed based on geostatistical analysis methods and grid cell approaches. The relationships between land use types and changes in WTD were assessed using correlation and ordinary least square analyses. The relationships between spatiotemporal variations in WTD and land use change were explored using local level geographically weighted regression. The results indicated that influences of human activity on the variation of WTD have gradually increased, and that WTD has declined rapidly in most parts of the study area. The spatial distribution of WTD exhibited significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and WTD was lower in the inner parts of the oasis and shallower in the oasis-desert ecotone. The WTD decline rates in the irrigation area were much higher than those in the oasis-desert ecotone. The cultivated land area has expanded markedly, whereas the shrub covered area has shrunk rapidly. Changes in WTD were positively correlated with changes in cultivated land area, and the expansion center of cultivated land has gradually moved from upstream of the alluvial fan to downstream of the alluvial fan and to the oasis-desert ecotone. The relationships between changes in cultivated land and WTD in the ecotone were more prominent than those in the inner parts of the oasis. Therefore, agricultural land expansion and planning in the study area should be integrated based on spatiotemporal changes in the groundwater depth to maintain the stability of groundwater systems and sustainable groundwater exploitation.

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