scholarly journals Predicting Australian Adults at High Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Using Standard Risk Factors and Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 3187
Author(s):  
Shelda Sajeev ◽  
Stephanie Champion ◽  
Alline Beleigoli ◽  
Derek Chew ◽  
Richard L. Reed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Health Study ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Australian Population ◽  
Net Reclassification Improvement ◽  
Diabetes Status ◽  
Machine Learning Models ◽  
Cvd Mortality

Effective cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention relies on timely identification and intervention for individuals at risk. Conventional formula-based techniques have been demonstrated to over- or under-predict the risk of CVD in the Australian population. This study assessed the ability of machine learning models to predict CVD mortality risk in the Australian population and compare performance with the well-established Framingham model. Data is drawn from three Australian cohort studies: the North West Adelaide Health Study (NWAHS), the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle study, and the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Four machine learning models for predicting 15-year CVD mortality risk were developed and compared to the 2008 Framingham model. Machine learning models performed significantly better compared to the Framingham model when applied to the three Australian cohorts. Machine learning based models improved prediction by 2.7% to 5.2% across three Australian cohorts. In an aggregated cohort, machine learning models improved prediction by up to 5.1% (area-under-curve (AUC) 0.852, 95% CI 0.837–0.867). Net reclassification improvement (NRI) was up to 26% with machine learning models. Machine learning based models also showed improved performance when stratified by sex and diabetes status. Results suggest a potential for improving CVD risk prediction in the Australian population using machine learning models.

scholarly journals Machine learning models to identify low adherence to influenza vaccination among Korean adults with cardiovascular disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moojung Kim ◽  
Young Jae Kim ◽  
Sung Jin Park ◽  
Kwang Gi Kim ◽  
Pyung Chun Oh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Background Annual influenza vaccination is an important public health measure to prevent influenza infections and is strongly recommended for cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients, especially in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a machine learning model to identify Korean adult CVD patients with low adherence to influenza vaccination Methods Adults with CVD (n = 815) from a nationally representative dataset of the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V) were analyzed. Among these adults, 500 (61.4%) had answered "yes" to whether they had received seasonal influenza vaccinations in the past 12 months. The classification process was performed using the logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) machine learning techniques. Because the Ministry of Health and Welfare in Korea offers free influenza immunization for the elderly, separate models were developed for the < 65 and ≥ 65 age groups. Results The accuracy of machine learning models using 16 variables as predictors of low influenza vaccination adherence was compared; for the ≥ 65 age group, XGB (84.7%) and RF (84.7%) have the best accuracies, followed by LR (82.7%) and SVM (77.6%). For the < 65 age group, SVM has the best accuracy (68.4%), followed by RF (64.9%), LR (63.2%), and XGB (61.4%). Conclusions The machine leaning models show comparable performance in classifying adult CVD patients with low adherence to influenza vaccination.

scholarly journals Simple Linear Cancer Risk Prediction Models with Novel Features Outperform Complex Approaches

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Kulm ◽  
Lior Kofman ◽  
Jason Mezey ◽  
Olivier Elemento
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cancer Survival ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Learning Performance ◽  
Health Study ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Machine Learning Models

ABSTRACTA patient’s risk for cancer is usually estimated through simple linear models that sum effect sizes of proven risk factors. In theory, more advanced machine learning models can be used for the same task. Using data from the UK Biobank, a large prospective health study, we have developed linear and machine learning models for the prediction of 12 different cancers diagnoses within a 10 year time span. We find that the top machine learning algorithm, XGBoost (XGB), trained on 707 features generated an average area under the receiver operator curve of 0.736 (with a range of 0.65-0.85). Linear models trained with only 10 features were found to be statistically indifferent from the machine learning performance. The linear models were significantly more accurate than the prominent QCancer models (p = 0.0019), which are trained on 45 million patient records and available to over 4,000 United Kingdom general practices. The increase in accuracy may be caused by the consideration of often omitted feature types, including survey answers, census records, and genetic information. This approach led to the discovery of significant novel risk features, including self-reported happiness with own health (relevant to 12 cancers), measured testosterone (relevant to 8 cancers), and ICD codes for rehabilitation procedures (relevant to 3 cancers). These ten feature models can be easily implemented within the clinic, allowing for personalized screening schedules that may increase the cancer survival within a population.

scholarly journals Consistency of variety of machine learning and statistical models in predicting clinical risks of individual patients: longitudinal cohort study using cardiovascular disease as exemplar

BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m3919
Author(s):  
Yan Li ◽  
Matthew Sperrin ◽  
Darren M Ashcroft ◽  
Tjeerd Pieter van Staa
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Survival Models ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Models

AbstractObjectiveTo assess the consistency of machine learning and statistical techniques in predicting individual level and population level risks of cardiovascular disease and the effects of censoring on risk predictions.DesignLongitudinal cohort study from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2018.Setting and participants3.6 million patients from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink registered at 391 general practices in England with linked hospital admission and mortality records.Main outcome measuresModel performance including discrimination, calibration, and consistency of individual risk prediction for the same patients among models with comparable model performance. 19 different prediction techniques were applied, including 12 families of machine learning models (grid searched for best models), three Cox proportional hazards models (local fitted, QRISK3, and Framingham), three parametric survival models, and one logistic model.ResultsThe various models had similar population level performance (C statistics of about 0.87 and similar calibration). However, the predictions for individual risks of cardiovascular disease varied widely between and within different types of machine learning and statistical models, especially in patients with higher risks. A patient with a risk of 9.5-10.5% predicted by QRISK3 had a risk of 2.9-9.2% in a random forest and 2.4-7.2% in a neural network. The differences in predicted risks between QRISK3 and a neural network ranged between –23.2% and 0.1% (95% range). Models that ignored censoring (that is, assumed censored patients to be event free) substantially underestimated risk of cardiovascular disease. Of the 223 815 patients with a cardiovascular disease risk above 7.5% with QRISK3, 57.8% would be reclassified below 7.5% when using another model.ConclusionsA variety of models predicted risks for the same patients very differently despite similar model performances. The logistic models and commonly used machine learning models should not be directly applied to the prediction of long term risks without considering censoring. Survival models that consider censoring and that are explainable, such as QRISK3, are preferable. The level of consistency within and between models should be routinely assessed before they are used for clinical decision making.

P1923Deep and machine learning models to improve risk prediction of cardiovascular disease using data extraction from electronic health records

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Korsakov ◽  
A Gusev ◽  
T Kuznetsova ◽  
D Gavrilov ◽  
R Novitskiy
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Electronic Health ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Abstract Background Advances in precision medicine will require an increasingly individualized prognostic evaluation of patients in order to provide the patient with appropriate therapy. The traditional statistical methods of predictive modeling, such as SCORE, PROCAM, and Framingham, according to the European guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, not adapted for all patients and require significant human involvement in the selection of predictive variables, transformation and imputation of variables. In ROC-analysis for prediction of significant cardiovascular disease (CVD), the areas under the curve for Framingham: 0.62–0.72, for SCORE: 0.66–0.73 and for PROCAM: 0.60–0.69. To improve it, we apply for approaches to predict a CVD event rely on conventional risk factors by machine learning and deep learning models to 10-year CVD event prediction by using longitudinal electronic health record (EHR). Methods For machine learning, we applied logistic regression (LR) and recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory (LSTM) units as a deep learning algorithm. We extract from longitudinal EHR the following features: demographic, vital signs, diagnoses (ICD-10-cm: I21-I22.9: I61-I63.9) and medication. The problem in this step, that near 80 percent of clinical information in EHR is “unstructured” and contains errors and typos. Missing data are important for the correct training process using by deep learning & machine learning algorithm. The study cohort included patients between the ages of 21 to 75 with a dynamic observation window. In total, we got 31517 individuals in the dataset, but only 3652 individuals have all features or missing features values can be easy to impute. Among these 3652 individuals, 29.4% has a CVD, mean age 49.4 years, 68,2% female. Evaluation We randomly divided the dataset into a training and a test set with an 80/20 split. The LR was implemented with Python Scikit-Learn and the LSTM model was implemented with Keras using Tensorflow as the backend. Results We applied machine learning and deep learning models using the same features as traditional risk scale and longitudinal EHR features for CVD prediction, respectively. Machine learning model (LR) achieved an AUROC of 0.74–0.76 and deep learning (LSTM) 0.75–0.76. By using features from EHR logistic regression and deep learning models improved the AUROC to 0.78–0.79. Conclusion The machine learning models outperformed a traditional clinically-used predictive model for CVD risk prediction (i.e. SCORE, PROCAM, and Framingham equations). This approach was used to create a clinical decision support system (CDSS). It uses both traditional risk scales and models based on neural networks. Especially important is the fact that the system can calculate the risks of cardiovascular disease automatically and recalculate immediately after adding new information to the EHR. The results are delivered to the user's personal account.

A Survey of Predicting Heart Disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Preethi ◽  
J Selvakumar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Medical System ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Clinical Area ◽  
Survey Paper ◽  
Critical Challenge ◽  
Machine Learning Models

This paper describes various methods of data mining, big data and machine learning models for predicting the heart disease. Data mining and machine learning plays an important role in building an important model for medical system to predict heart disease or cardiovascular disease. Medical experts can help the patients by detecting the cardiovascular disease before occurring. Now-a-days heart disease is one of the most significant causes of fatality. The prediction of heart disease is a critical challenge in the clinical area. But time to time, several techniques are discovered to predict the heart disease in data mining. In this survey paper, many techniques were described for predicting the heart disease.

scholarly journals Mortality-Risk Prediction Model from Road-Traffic Injury in Drunk Drivers: Machine Learning Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (19) ◽  
pp. 10540
Author(s):  
Wachiranun Sirikul ◽  
Nida Buawangpong ◽  
Ratana Sapbamrer ◽  
Penprapa Siviroj
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Road Traffic Injury ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Traffic Injury ◽  
Drunk Drivers ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background: Alcohol-related road-traffic injury is the leading cause of premature death in middle- and lower-income countries, including Thailand. Applying machine-learning algorithms can improve the effectiveness of driver-impairment screening strategies by legal limits. Methods: Using 4794 RTI drivers from secondary cross-sectional data from the Thai Governmental Road Safety Evaluation project in 2002–2004, the machine-learning models (Gradient Boosting Classifier: GBC, Multi-Layers Perceptrons: MLP, Random Forest: RF, K-Nearest Neighbor: KNN) and a parsimonious logistic regression (Logit) were developed for predicting the mortality risk from road-traffic injury in drunk drivers. The predictors included alcohol concentration level in blood or breath, driver characteristics and environmental factors. Results: Of 4974 drivers in the derived dataset, 4365 (92%) were surviving drivers and 429 (8%) were dead drivers. The class imbalance was rebalanced by the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) into a 1:1 ratio. All models obtained good-to-excellent discrimination performance. The AUC of GBC, RF, KNN, MLP, and Logit models were 0.95 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.00), 0.92 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.97), 0.86 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.89), 0.83 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.88), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.87), respectively. MLP and GBC also had a good model calibration, visualized by the calibration plot. Conclusions: Our machine-learning models can predict road-traffic mortality risk with good model discrimination and calibration. External validation using current data is recommended for future implementation.

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