scholarly journals Modelling Voluntary General Population Vaccination Strategies during COVID-19 Outbreak: Influence of Disease Prevalence

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6217
Author(s):  
Rastko Jovanović ◽  
Miloš Davidović ◽  
Ivan Lazović ◽  
Maja Jovanović ◽  
Milena Jovašević-Stojanović
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Contact Layer ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Disease Information ◽  
Information Layer ◽  
Vaccination Decision ◽  
Available Information

A novel statistical model based on a two-layer, contact and information, graph is suggested in order to study the influence of disease prevalence on voluntary general population vaccination during the COVID-19 outbreak. Details about the structure and number of susceptible, infectious, and recovered/vaccinated individuals from the contact layer are simultaneously transferred to the information layer. The ever-growing wealth of information that is becoming available about the COVID virus was modelled at each individual level by a simplified proxy predictor of the amount of disease spread. Each informed individual, a node in a heterogeneous graph, makes a decision about vaccination “motivated” by their benefit. The obtained results showed that disease information type, global or local, has a significant impact on an individual vaccination decision. A number of different scenarios were investigated. The scenarios showed that in the case of the stronger impact of globally broadcasted disease information, individuals tend to vaccinate in larger numbers at the same time when the infection has already spread within the population. If individuals make vaccination decisions based on locally available information, the vaccination rate is uniformly spread during infection outbreak duration. Prioritising elderly population vaccination leads to an increased number of infected cases and a higher reduction in mortality. The developed model accuracy allows the precise targeting of vaccination order depending on the individuals’ number of social contacts. Precisely targeted vaccination, combined with pre-existing immunity, and public health measures can limit the infection to isolated hotspots inside the population, as well as significantly delay and lower the infection peak.

Model Choice Using the Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Conditional Individual-Level Models of Infectious Disease Spread

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorna E. Deeth ◽  
Rob Deardon ◽  
Daniel J. Gillis
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Bayesian Models ◽  
Deviance Information Criterion ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Model Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Available Information

AbstractIndividual-level models (ILMs) are a class of complex, statistical models that are often fitted within a Bayesian framework, and which can be suitable for modeling infectious disease spread. The deviance information criterion (DIC) is a model comparison tool that is appropriate for complex, Bayesian models, and since its development a number of variants have been proposed, including those for its application to missing data models. Here, we assessed five variants of the DIC and their application to ILMs, in particular a class of infectious disease models known as latent conditional LC-ILMs, which depend on a potentially unknown latent grouping variable for each individual in the population. The effectiveness of the traditionally defined DIC was compared to alternative DIC definitions through a simulation study, to assess which is most applicable for this class of models. Epidemic data was generated under an LC-ILM, to which both a spatial ILM (SILM) and the LC-ILM were fitted. Each variant of the DIC was then calculated for every fitted model, and the DIC values obtained for the LC-ILM were compared to those from the SILM. The results of the simulation study indicate that the DIC can be effective for model comparison within complex Bayesian models; however, the degree to which it is effective is dependent upon the variant of the DIC used and the amount of available information on the latent grouping variable.

Abstract P255: Association of Mild Chronic Kidney Disease with Venous Thromboembolism: Pooled Analysis of Prospective General Population Cohorts

Circulation ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 125 (suppl_10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakhtawar K Mahmoodi ◽  
Ron T Gansevoort ◽  
Inger Anne Naess ◽  
Pamela L Lutsey ◽  
Sigrid K Braekkan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
General Population ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Pooled Analysis ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Increased Risk

Background: Recent findings suggest that mild chronic kidney disease (CKD) might be associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, results were partially inconsistent, which may be due to lack of power. We therefore performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between mild CKD and VTE incidence. Methods: A literature search was performed to retrieve community-based cohorts with information on the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with VTE. Five cohorts were identified that were pooled on individual level. To obtain pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for VTE, linear spline models were fitted using Cox regression with shared-frailty. Models were adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, total cholesterol, smoking, diabetes, history of cardiovascular disease and body-mass index. Random-effect meta-analysis was used to obtain adjusted pooled HRs of VTE with CKD versus no CKD. Results: The analysis included 95,154 participants with 1,178 VTE cases and 599,453 person-years of follow-up. Risk of VTE increased continuously with lower eGFR and higher ACR (Figure). Compared with eGFR 100 mL/min/1.73m², pooled adjusted HRs for VTE were 1.3 (1.0–1.7) for eGFR 60, 1.8 (1.3–2.6) for 45 and 1.9 (1.2–2.9) for 30 mL/min/1.73m². Compared with albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) 5 mg/g, pooled adjusted HRs for VTE were 1.3 (1.04–1.7) for ACR 30, 1.6 (1.1–2.4) for 300 and 1.9 (1.2–3.1) for 1000 mg/g. There was no evidence for interaction between eGFR and ACR (P=0.22). The pooled adjusted HR for CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m² or albuminuria ≥30 mg/g) vs. no CKD was 1.5 (95%CI, 1.2–2.1). Results were similar for idiopathic and provoked VTE. Conclusion: Both reduced eGFR and elevated albuminuria are novel independent predictors of VTE in the general population.

Proximity to sex work sites is not associated with higher HIV prevalence in the general population in Zimbabwe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariëlle Kloek ◽  
Caroline Bulstra ◽  
Sungai Chabata ◽  
Elizabeth Fearon ◽  
Isaac Taramusi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Sex Work ◽  
Sex Workers ◽  
Hiv Prevalence ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Prevalence Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Shortest Distance ◽  
Survey Sample

Abstract In Zimbabwe, as in other East and Southern African countries, HIV prevalence is largely geographically heterogeneous. We determined if, and to what extent, this heterogeneity is associated with proximity to sex work sites by type of site (city, economic growth point, international, seasonal, or transport), using Demographic and Health Surveys location-specific HIV prevalence data—including 16,121 individuals (aged 15-49 years) from 400 sample locations—and Centre for Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS Research data on locations of 56 sex work sites throughout Zimbabwe. We conducted univariate and multivariate multilevel logistic regression to determine the association between sex work proximity—calculated as the shortest distance by road from each survey sample location to the nearest sex work site—and HIV seropositivity. We found no association between locations of sex work and heterogeneity in HIV prevalence in the general population, possibly explained by the mobile nature of both female sex workers and their clients as individual-level indicators of sex work were still significantly associated with HIV.

scholarly journals Phylogenetic and Demographic Characterization of Directed HIV-1 Transmission Using Deep Sequences from High-Risk and General Population Cohorts/Groups in Uganda

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Bbosa ◽  
Deogratius Ssemwanga ◽  
Alfred Ssekagiri ◽  
Xiaoyue Xi ◽  
Yunia Mayanja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
General Population ◽  
Lake Victoria ◽  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Male Participant ◽  
Population Sampling ◽  
Hiv 1

Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations with elevated HIV-1 incidence and/or prevalence have been identified, but their contribution to disease spread remains unclear. We performed viral deep-sequence phylogenetic analyses to quantify transmission dynamics between the general population (GP), fisherfolk communities (FF), and women at high risk of infection and their clients (WHR) in central and southwestern Uganda. Between August 2014 and August 2017, 6185 HIV-1 positive individuals were enrolled in 3 GP and 10 FF communities, 3 WHR enrollment sites. A total of 2531 antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve participants with plasma viral load >1000 copies/mL were deep-sequenced. One hundred and twenty-three transmission networks were reconstructed, including 105 phylogenetically highly supported source–recipient pairs. Only one pair involved a WHR and male participant, suggesting that improved population sampling is needed to assess empirically the role of WHR to the transmission dynamics. More transmissions were observed from the GP communities to FF communities than vice versa, with an estimated flow ratio of 1.56 (95% CrI 0.68–3.72), indicating that fishing communities on Lake Victoria are not a net source of transmission flow to neighboring communities further inland. Men contributed disproportionally to HIV-1 transmission flow regardless of age, suggesting that prevention efforts need to better aid men to engage with and stay in care.

scholarly journals Rate of intersexual interactions affects injury likelihood in Tasmanian devil contact networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1087-1095 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G Hamilton ◽  
Menna E Jones ◽  
Elissa Z Cameron ◽  
Hamish McCallum ◽  
Andrew Storfer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Cancer Cell Line ◽  
Mate Guarding ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Tasmanian Devil ◽  
Mating Season ◽  
Wildlife Diseases ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Bite Wounds

Abstract Identifying the types of contacts that result in disease transmission is important for accurately modeling and predicting transmission dynamics and disease spread in wild populations. We investigated contacts within a population of adult Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) over a 6-month period and tested whether individual-level contact patterns were correlated with accumulation of bite wounds. Bite wounds are important in the spread of devil facial tumor disease, a clonal cancer cell line transmitted through direct inoculation of tumor cells when susceptible and infected individuals bite each other. We used multimodel inference and network autocorrelation models to investigate the effects of individual-level contact patterns, identities of interacting partners, and position within the social network on the propensity to be involved in bite-inducing contacts. We found that males were more likely to receive potentially disease-transmitting bite wounds than females, particularly during the mating season when males spend extended periods mate-guarding females. The number of bite wounds individuals received during the mating season was unrelated to any of the network metrics examined. Our approach illustrates the necessity for understanding which contact types spread disease in different systems to assist the management of this and other infectious wildlife diseases.

scholarly journals The individual and societal effects of non-psychotic serious mental disorders on earnings in Belgium

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 207-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronny Bruffaerts ◽  
Anke Bonnewyn ◽  
Koen Demyttenaere
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Mental Disorders ◽  
Composite International Diagnostic Interview ◽  
Diagnostic Interview ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Alcohol Disorders ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Annual Earnings

AbstractPurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the association between non-psychotic serious mental disorders and earnings in the general population of Belgium on both the individual- and society-level.Subjects and methodsData stem from a cross-sectional population study of the non-institutionalized adult (between 18 and 64) population from Belgium (N = 863). The third version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI-3.0) was administered to assess 12-month non-psychotic serious mental disorders and annual earnings. Multivariate approaches were used to estimate the observed and estimated annual earnings for persons with serious mental disorders, controlling for sociodemographic variables and alcohol disorders.ResultsOn the individual-level, 12-month serious mental disorders significantly predicted the probability of having any earnings (OR = 0.32; 95%CI = 0.14–0.74). Respondents with serious mental disorders had 12-month earnings of 5969€ less than expected in the absence of serious mental disorders. Taking into account the prevalence of serious mental disorders (i.e. 4.9%), the society-level effects of serious mental disorders in 2002 can be estimated at about 1797 million € per year for the Belgian general population.DiscussionNon-psychotic serious mental disorders had considerable impact on annual earnings.ConclusionThis is the first study in Belgium that addresses the association between mental illness and earnings. Serious mental disorders are associated with individual- and societal-level impairments and loss of human capital.

Anthropometric Estimations for Iranian General Population

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahnaz SAREMI ◽  
Mahnaz KAZEMHAGHIGHI
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
General Population ◽  
Practical Purpose ◽  
Community Setting ◽  
Time Limit ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Essential Requirement ◽  
Available Information

Background: An essential requirement exists for a single exhaustive source of anthropometric databank in Iran. Available information about Iranian bodily dimensions is not applicable to the general population due to the sample of people investigated. This study aimed to present the first Iranian anthropometric databank by estimation. Methods: After a systematic review, 24 relevant sources of information were found and included. No time limit was considered. The method of Rapid Anthropometrics Scaled for Height was used. Results: Overall, 36 bodily dimensions were estimated, for which the seven percentiles of 1st, 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th, and 99th were calculated, stratified by sex. Conclusion: The resulting tables can be claimed as the most representative anthropometric databank for Iranian general 20-64 yr population now. Data are suitable for practical purpose and are applicable in both occupational and community setting.

scholarly journals Cyberchondria and Its Effects on Anxiety during Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suman Shekar ◽  
Avinash Aravantagi
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
General Population ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Emotional State ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Behavioral Pattern ◽  
Anxiety And Depression ◽  
The Internet ◽  
The Social ◽  
Available Information

Cyberchondria is a blend of the words cyber and hypochondriac. Social isolation with easily available information on the Internet for little or no cost created a havoc. It is an abnormal behavioral pattern in the emotional state. There were hundreds of social media groups created during the pandemic. Many people including the healthcare workers started sharing their experiences, positive and negative. It created a lot of anxiety and depression among the general population. As we already know people with anxiety and depression react and respond more to information available online without verifying the facts. Though the social media groups helped the readers with innumerable information but it had its flaws. Patients with cyberchondria increased and also the burden on healthcare systems.

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