scholarly journals Unfixed Movement Route Model, Non-Overcrowding and Social Distancing Reduce the Spread of COVID-19 in Sporting Facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 8212
Author(s):  
Bote Qi ◽  
Jingwang Tan ◽  
Qingwen Zhang ◽  
Meng Cao ◽  
Xingxiong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Sports Facilities ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Simulation Results

Localized outbreaks of COVID-19 have been reported in sporting facilities. This study used the Agent-based Modeling (ABM) method to analyze the transmission rate of COVID-19 in different sporting models, sporting spaces per capita, and situations of gathering, which contributes to understanding how COVID-19 transmits in sports facilities. The simulation results show that the transmission rate of COVID-19 was higher under the Fixed Movement Route (FMR) than under the Unfixed Movement Route (UMR) in 10 different sporting spaces per capita (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 m2) (p = 0.000). For both FMR and UMR, the larger the sporting space per capita, the lower the virus transmission rate. Additionally, when the sporting space per capita increases from 4 m2 to 5 m2, the virus transmission rate decreases most significantly (p = 0.000). In the FMR model with a per capita sporting space of 5 m2, minimizing gathering (no more than three people) could significantly slow down the transmission rate of the COVID-19 virus (p < 0.05). This study concluded that: (1) The UMR model is suggested in training facilities or playing grounds; (2) The sporting space should be non-overcrowding, and it is recommended that the sporting space per capita in the sporting grounds should not be less than 5 m2; (3) It is important to maintain safe social distancing and minimize gathering (no more than three people) when exercising.

scholarly journals Examining the Interplay between Face Mask Usage, Asymptomatic Transmission, and Social Distancing on the Spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Catching ◽  
Sara Capponi ◽  
Ming Te Yeh ◽  
Simone Bianco ◽  
Raul Andino
Keyword(s):  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Functions ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Worldwide Population ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
High Virus

AbstractThe COVID-19 global crisis is facilitated by high virus transmission rates and high percentages of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infected individuals. Containing the pandemic hinged on combinations of social distancing and face mask use. Here we examine the efficacy of these measures, using an agent-based modeling approach that evaluates face masks and social distancing in realistic confined spaces scenarios. By explicitly considering different fractions of asymptomatic individuals, as well as a realistic hypothesis of face mask protection during inhaling and exhaling, we find that face masks are more effective than social distancing in curbing the infection. Importantly, combining face masks with even moderate social distancing provides optimal protection. The finding that widespread usage of face masks limits COVID-19 outbreaks can inform policies to reopening of social functions.Author summaryThe COVID-19 outbreak has created an enormous burden on the worldwide population. Among the various ways of preventing the spread of the virus, face masks have been proposed as a main way of reducing transmission. Yet, the interplay between the usage of face mask and other forms of Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention is still not completely clear. In this paper we introduce a stochastic individual-based model which aims at producing realistic scenarios of disease spread when mask wearing with different inward and outward efficacy and social distancing are enforced. The model elucidates the conditions which make the two forms of intervention synergistic in preventing the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals The Effect of Social Distancing and Personal Protective Equipment on the Outbreak of SARS-COVID-2: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sohrab Effati ◽  
Eman Tavakoli
Keyword(s):  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Contagious Diseases ◽  
Biological Phenomena

Abstract Biological phenomena such as disease outbreaks can be modeled as a subset of natural phenomena. Coronaviruses, first identified in the 1960s, are contagious diseases being constantly in the area of research and modeling in human society. The latest version of this group, SARS-COVID-2, has caused the Coronavirus disease one of the greatest pandemics in recent years. Due to the nature of this disease, being aware of the ways of transmission and how to prevent it, including social distancing and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) to improve the general condition of society is of particular importance. In this study, dynamic systems (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Asymptomatic, and Recovered individuals as SEIAR), control systems, and Agent-based modeling (ABM) were used to forecast the behavior of the SARS-COVID-2 virus in the community. The numerical results display the undeniable impact of adhering to hygiene protocols. A significant decline in the number of people with the Coronavirus disease, after applying the control measures, indicates their remarkable impact on reducing the disease peak. Moreover, the result of the Agent-based simulation, which is in four ideal cases, show a significant reduction in the number of death as well.

Optimal Patent Design

2013 ◽  
pp. 280-302
Author(s):  
Anthony Brabazon
Keyword(s):  
Product Space ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Technological Advance ◽  
Patent Policy ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Patent Design ◽  
Patent Breadth

Patents provide a patentee with a degree of monopoly power over a region of product space. The “breadth” and “duration” of patents are policy choices. Increasing patent breadth and duration will ceteris paribus increase the rent, which an individual inventor could earn from a commercially successful invention. However, the precise nature of the relationship between patent policy and the rate of societal technical advance, which is stimulated by a given patent design, is not well understood. In this chapter, the authors novelly investigate this issue using an agent-based modeling approach. The simulation results obtained raise questions about the real utility of patent policy in promoting technological advance and suggest that other policy instruments are actually more important.

Examining the Myth of Money with Agent-Based Modelling

2008 ◽  
pp. 252-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoru Yamadera
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Economic Theories ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Classical Economic ◽  
Theories Of Money

This chapter presents an agent-based computational model of the emergence of money. It is based on classical economic theories of money, advocating that money is a symbol of credibility. The most interesting and mysterious feature of money is a departure of its face value from its intrinsic value. People accept and appreciate a piece of paper because it is believed as money. The model examines how such belief creates money in a society. Further more, by incorporating spatial activities of agents into the simulations, the model can examine various hypotheses which were difficult to be examined in previous approaches. The simulation results show that parameters such as credibility and communication between agents will affect the outcomes. The model not only provides the foundation for more generalized theory of money, but also demonstrates that agent-based modeling can be an effective tool to examine various hypotheses of social sciences.

scholarly journals Determining the Number of Passengers for Each of Three Reverse Pyramid Boarding Groups with COVID-19 Flying Restrictions

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2038
Author(s):  
Camelia Delcea ◽  
R. John Milne ◽  
Liviu-Adrian Cotfas
Keyword(s):  
Health Risk ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Relative Preference ◽  
Search Optimization ◽  
Airport Terminal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The onset of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has changed many aspects of people’s economic and social activities. For many airlines, social distancing has reduced airplane capacity by one third as a result of keeping the middle seats empty. Additionally, social distancing between passengers traversing the aisle slows the boarding process. Recent literature has suggested that the reverse pyramid boarding method provides favorable values for boarding time and passenger health metrics when compared to other boarding methods with social distancing. Assuming reverse pyramid boarding with the middle seats unoccupied, we determined the number of passengers to include in each of three boarding groups. We assumed that passengers use a jet-bridge that connects the airport terminal to the airplane’s front door. We used agent-based modeling and a stochastic simulation to evaluate solutions. A full grid search found an initial good solution, and then local search optimization determined the best solution based upon the airline’s relative preference for minimizing average boarding time and minimizing risks to previously seated passengers from later-boarding, potentially contagious passengers breathing near them. The resulting solution contained the number of passengers to place into each of the three boarding groups. If an airline is most concerned about the health risk to seated passengers from later boarding passengers walking near them, the best three-group reverse pyramid method adapted for social distancing will first board passengers with window seats in the rear half of the airplane, then will board passengers with window seats in the front half of the airplane and those with aisle seats in the rear half of the airplane, and finally will board the passengers with aisle seats in the front half of the airplane. The resulting solution takes about 2% longer to board than the three-group solution that minimizes boarding time while providing a 25% decrease in health risk to aisle seat passengers from later boarding passengers.

scholarly journals Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunhwan Kim ◽  
Hohyung Ryu ◽  
Sunmi Lee
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Republic Of Korea ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Republic ◽  
High Level

Super-spreading events have been observed in the transmission dynamics of many infectious diseases. The 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak in the Republic of Korea has also shown super-spreading events with a significantly high level of heterogeneity in generating secondary cases. It becomes critical to understand the mechanism for this high level of heterogeneity to develop effective intervention strategies and preventive plans for future emerging infectious diseases. In this regard, agent-based modeling is a useful tool for incorporating individual heterogeneity into the epidemic model. In the present work, a stochastic agent-based framework is developed in order to understand the underlying mechanism of heterogeneity. Clinical (i.e., an infectivity level) and social or environmental (i.e., a contact level) heterogeneity are modeled. These factors are incorporated in the transmission rate functions under assumptions that super-spreaders have stronger transmission and/or higher links. Our agent-based model has employed real MERS-CoV epidemic features based on the 2015 MERS-CoV epidemiological data. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out under various epidemic scenarios. Our findings highlight the roles of super-spreaders in a high level of heterogeneity, underscoring that the number of contacts combined with a higher level of infectivity are the most critical factors for substantial heterogeneity in generating secondary cases of the 2015 MERS-CoV transmission.

Studies of COVID-19 Outbreak Control Using Agent-Based Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-321
Author(s):  
Shaoping Xiao ◽  
◽  
Ruicheng Liu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Communities ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Outbreak Control ◽  
High Level ◽  
General Community

An agent-based model was developed to study outbreaks and outbreak control for COVID-19, mainly in urban communities. Rules for people’s interactions and virus infectiousness were derived based on previous sociology studies and recently published data-driven analyses of COVID-19 epidemics. The calculated basic reproduction number of epidemics from the developed model coincided with reported values. There were three control measures considered in this paper: social distancing, self-quarantine and community quarantine. Each control measure was assessed individually at first. Later on, an artificial neural network was used to study the effects of different combinations of control measures. To help quantify the impacts of self-quarantine and community quarantine on outbreak control, both were scaled respectively. The results showed that self-quarantine was more effective than the others, but any individual control measure was ineffective in controlling outbreaks in urban communities. The results also showed that a high level of self-quarantine and general community quarantine, assisted with social distancing, would be recommended for outbreak control.

scholarly journals Viral dispersion in open air

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriella Trombini Machado ◽  
Claudia Ramos de Carvalho Pinto ◽  
Luisa Andrea Villanueva da Fonseca ◽  
Taissa Cristina dos Santos Ramos ◽  
Tuanny Fernanda Pereira Paggi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Petri Dishes

ABSTRACTThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has revived the debate about the routes of virus transmission and their likelihoods. It is of utmost importance to assess the risks of contamination of susceptible people by infectious individuals and to evaluate the level of viral transmission in the community. Most countries have imposed non-pharmaceutical measures to contain SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including social distancing and mask wearing. Here we evaluated the spreading of viruses in open air using harmless Escherichia coli bacteriophages as a surrogate. Phages were sprayed towards Petri dishes seeded with bacteria at different lengths and angles. Median droplets size was 127 µm, similar to those produced by sneeze. Our results showed that the transmission rate decreased exponentially with distance. The highest recorded transmission rate was 9 × 10−6 PFU/plate when phages were sprayed from a 1 m distance, suggesting that the probability of transmission of a single virus at a 1 m distance is 1:100,000. These results agree with the WHO recommendation that face mask protection in an uncrowded well-ventilated space is not required.

Research on Continuous Reconnaissance Capability of UAV Formation in Multi-Target Situation

2013 ◽  
Vol 380-384 ◽  
pp. 246-249
Author(s):  
Qi Wang Huang ◽  
Xiao Bo Li ◽  
Qun Li ◽  
Yi Fan Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Modeling And Simulation ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Target Strength ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Line Method ◽  
Simulation Results

The efficiency of continuous reconnaissance of UAV formation will be changed with the number of UAVs, the detectability of UAV and target strength. The crossing line method is used to evaluate the efficiency of continuous reconnaissance of UAV formation. In this paper, the reconnaissance system of UAV formation in multi-target situation is analyzed using the method of Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS); and then the influence of the number of UAV, the detectability of UAV and target strength on reconnaissance effectiveness is also analyzed. Simulation results show that the number of UAVs and the detectability of UAV have a significant influence on the capability of continuous reconnaissance.

VALIDATION AND AGENT-BASED MODELING: A PRACTICE OF CONTRASTING SIMULATION RESULTS WITH EMPIRICAL DATA

2011 ◽  
Vol 07 (03) ◽  
pp. 515-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANK C. S. LIU
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Science Communication ◽  
Perfect Matching ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Communication Studies ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Simulation Results

As an emerging approach to explore the dynamics of voter preference, agent-based modeling (ABM) highlights new opportunities for intellectual exchange across disciplines, such as mathematics, political science, communication studies, and computer science. By aiming to contribute to cross-disciplinary communication for a better application of this approach, this paper summarizes what scholars have done about internal and external validation and presents a comparison between statistical analysis based on datasets generated in a laboratory and analysis based on corresponding empirical datasets. The results of the comparison suggest that, although there is no perfect matching, the comparison reveals some similarities in terms of increase or decrease in the proportion of different types of agents. This result further implies that an internally valid ABM model may lead to a certain level of external validity.

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