scholarly journals Two-Way Contact Network Modeling for Identifying the Route of COVID-19 Community Transmission

Informatics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Sung Jin Lee ◽  
Sang Eun Lee ◽  
Ji-On Kim ◽  
Gi Bum Kim
Keyword(s):  
Simulated Data ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Transmission Route ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Centrality Analysis ◽  
Selection Of

In this study, we address the problem originated from the fact that “The Corona 19 Epidemiological Research Support System,” developed by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is limited to analyzing the Global Positioning System (GPS) information of the confirmed COVID-19 cases alone. Consequently, we study a method that the authority predicts the transmission route of COVID-19 between visitors in the community from a spatiotemporal perspective. This method models a contact network around the first confirmed case, allowing the health authorities to conduct tests on visitors after an outbreak of COVID-19 in the community. After securing the GPS data of community visitors, it traces back to the past from the time the first confirmed case occurred and creates contact clusters at each time step. This is different from other researches that focus on identifying the movement paths of confirmed patients by forward tracing. The proposed method creates the contact network by assigning weights to each contact cluster based on the degree of proximity between contacts. Identifying the source of infection in the contact network can make us predict the transmission route between the first confirmed case and the source of infection and classify the contacts on the transmission route. In this experiment, we used 64,073 simulated data for 100 people and extracted the transmission route and a top 10 list for centrality analysis. The contacts on the route path can be quickly designated as a priority for COVID-19 testing. In addition, it is possible for the authority to extract the subjects with high influence from the centrality theory and use them for additional COVID-19 epidemic investigation that requires urgency. This model is expected to be used in the epidemic investigation requiring the quick selection of close contacts.

scholarly journals Evolution of COVID-19 Infection in Mexico until March 23, 2020: A Descriptive Ecological Study

2020 ◽  
pp. 42-48
Author(s):  
Nicolas Padilla-Raygoza ◽  
Cuauhtemoc Sandoval-Salazar ◽  
Daniel Alberto Díaz-Martinez ◽  
Efrain Navarro-Olivos ◽  
Maria de Jesus Gallardo-Luna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Study ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
General Direction ◽  
The Past ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Public Health Challenge

Aims: COVID-19 has been a big public health challenge around the world in the past several months. The aim of this study is to describe the epidemic and report the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mexico until March 23, 2020. Study Design: Ecological descriptive study. Place and Duration of Study: Registries of confirmed cases for COVID-19 in Mexican population during February and until 23 March 2020, from National System of Epidemiological Surveillance/ General Direction of Epidemiology/ Secretary of Health, Mexico. Methodology: Based on the database of confirmed cases of COVID-19 by Secretary of Health in Mexico, we collected data on age, gender, and source of infection (travel to USA, European or Asian countries. As of March 23, 2020, 405 cases have been identified in Mexico. It was included 405 registries. Results: The first confirmed case in Mexico has been identified on February 20, 2020 and the incidence has been rising from the end of February and throughout March. The early confirmed cases were imported cases resulting from travel to USA, Italy, Germany, Spain, France and Singapore. No one travelled to China. No cases of community transmission have been reported. Conclusion: The frequency of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mexico are concerning and the health authorities in Mexico are waiting for the peak of the epidemiological curve to occur in April.

Is Hydraulics Over-Used or Under-Used in Storm Drainage?

1994 ◽  
Vol 29 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 53-61
Author(s):  
Ben Chie Yen
Keyword(s):  
Unsteady Flow ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Flow Routing ◽  
Kinematic Wave Equation ◽  
Storm Drainage ◽  
Saint Venant Equations ◽  
Unsteady Flow Routing ◽  
Selection Of

Urban drainage models utilize hydraulics of different levels. Developing or selecting a model appropriate to a particular project is not an easy task. Not knowing the hydraulic principles and numerical techniques used in an existing model, users often misuse and abuse the model. Hydraulically, the use of the Saint-Venant equations is not always necessary. In many cases the kinematic wave equation is inadequate because of the backwater effect, whereas in designing sewers, often Manning's formula is adequate. The flow travel time provides a guide in selecting the computational time step At, which in turn, together with flow unsteadiness, helps in the selection of steady or unsteady flow routing. Often the noninertia model is the appropriate model for unsteady flow routing, whereas delivery curves are very useful for stepwise steady nonuniform flow routing and for determination of channel capacity.

scholarly journals Users’ Beliefs Toward Physical Distancing in Facebook Pages of Public Health Authorities During COVID-19 Pandemic in Early 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 109019812110144
Author(s):  
Soon Guan Tan ◽  
Aravind Sesagiri Raamkumar ◽  
Hwee Lin Wee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Belief Model ◽  
United States Public Health ◽  
Health Belief ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Belief Model ◽  
The Health Belief Model

This study aims to describe Facebook users’ beliefs toward physical distancing measures implemented during the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic using the key constructs of the health belief model. A combination of rule-based filtering and manual classification methods was used to classify user comments on COVID-19 Facebook posts of three public health authorities: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States, Public Health England, and Ministry of Health, Singapore. A total of 104,304 comments were analyzed for posts published between 1 January, 2020, and 31 March, 2020, along with COVID-19 cases and deaths count data from the three countries. Findings indicate that the perceived benefits of physical distancing measures ( n = 3,463; 3.3%) was three times higher than perceived barriers ( n = 1,062; 1.0%). Perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 ( n = 2,934; 2.8%) was higher compared with perceived severity ( n = 2,081; 2.0%). Although susceptibility aspects of physical distancing were discussed more often at the start of the year, mentions on the benefits of intervention emerged stronger toward the end of the analysis period, highlighting the shift in beliefs. The health belief model is useful for understanding Facebook users’ beliefs at a basic level, and it provides a scope for further improvement.

scholarly journals A novel comprehensive program combined optimal medical treatment and lifestyle for type 2 diabetes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunsong Hu ◽  
Tengiz Tkebuchava ◽  
Qinghua Wu
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Medical Treatment ◽  
Lifestyle Modification ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Comprehensive Program ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Glucagon Like Peptide 1 ◽  
Novel Strategy

This article introduces briefly current status in managing type 2 diabetes (T2D) and an updated classical standardized comprehensive program which combines optimal medical treatment (OMT) with lifestyle modification, that is, intervention of RT-ABCDEFG (iRT-ABCDEFG) for control and prevention of T2D, and discusses its advantages and prospects. Here, G means goals; F means follow-up; E means examination; D means disease & risk factors control; C means changing unhealthy “environment-sleep-emotion-exercise-diet” intervention [E(e)SEEDi] lifestyle & Chinese medicine or control the source of infection & cutting genetic or spreading pathways during the COVID-19 pandemic; B means biohazard control; And A means antagonistic treatment, such as optimal anti-diabetic agents, the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLPR) agonists, the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, and the ultralong-acting, once-daily basal insulin. As a novel strategy for Intervention of diabetes, this program can be used as a Reverse, Right, and Routine Treatment in clinical practice. Moreover, the vital goals which include less major adverse cardiocerebrovascular events (MACCE) and diabetic complications, less medical costs, longer life expectancy, lower morbidity and mortality, and higher quality of life, will be realized by consistently practicing this program due to early diagnosis, OMT, and overall prevention. Whatever, this program is very helpful to manage or self-manage T2D and improve its outcomes since it highly links to cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, cancer, and other MACCEs.

scholarly journals Pulmonary Versus Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis Associated Factors: A Case-Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 117863611984036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Arnedo-Pena ◽  
Maria Angeles Romeu-Garcia ◽  
Noemi Meseguer-Ferrer ◽  
Iraya Vivas-Fornas ◽  
Ana Vizcaino-Batllés ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Associated Factors ◽  
Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Microbiological Confirmation ◽  
Selection Of

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) incidence remains low in health departments of Castellon and La Plana-Vila-real, but TB elimination is challenging. The objective of this study was to estimate associated factors of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) compared with extrapulmonary tuberculosis (ETB) and investigate epidemiological characteristics of these pathologies to orient control and prevention actions. Materials and Methods: A prospective case-case study was implemented by comparing PTB and ETB incidences during 2013-2016 from notification reports, epidemiological surveillance, and microbiological results of hospitals’ laboratories Hospital General Castellon and La Plana-Vila-Real in the province of Castellon of Valencia region in Spain. In this design, cases were patients with PTB and controls were patients with ETB. Directed acyclic graph approach was used for selection of potential risk and confounding factors. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) were estimated by logistic regression models. Results: The study included 136 patients with PTB and 57 patients with ETB, with microbiological confirmation of 93.4% and 52.6%, and the annual median of incidence rates were 7.5 and 3.1 per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. In general, patients with PTB were younger with higher male proportion than patients with ETB. Risk factors of PTB were smoking tobacco (AOR = 3.98; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.66-9.56), social problems (social marginalization, homeless, residence in shelters for the poor, or stay in prison) (AOR = 3.39; 95% CI = 1.05-10.94), and contact with patients with TB (AOR = 2.51; 95% CI = 1.06-5.95). No-smoking tobacco and no-drug abuse interaction decrease PTB risk (AOR = 0.27; 95% CI = 0.12-0.64). From these results, specific measures of health promotion and prevention can be addressed. Conclusions: The estimated associated factors of PTB may be prevented, and it was demonstrated that the case-case design is useful in the study of TB.

scholarly journals Verification of SpacePy's radial diffusion radiation belt model

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 2165-2197 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. T. Welling ◽  
J. Koller ◽  
E. Camporeale
Keyword(s):  
Radiation Belt ◽  
Source Term ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Radiation Environment ◽  
Source Terms ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Manufactured Solutions ◽  
Quantitative Verification ◽  
Numerical Solver ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. Model verification, or the process of ensuring that the prescribed equations are properly solved, is a necessary step in code development. Careful, quantitative verification guides users when selecting grid resolution and time step and gives confidence to code developers that existing code is properly instituted. This work introduces the RadBelt radiation belt model, a new, open-source version of the Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) and uses the Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS) to quantitatively verify it. Order of convergence is investigated for a plethora of code configurations and source terms. The ability to apply many different diffusion coefficients, including time constant and time varying, is thoroughly investigated. The model passes all of the tests, demonstrating correct implementation of the numerical solver. The importance of DLL and source term dynamics on the selection of time step and grid size is also explored. Finally, an alternative method to apply the source term is examined to illustrate additional considerations required when non-linear source terms are used.

scholarly journals Survey of meshless and generalized finite element methods: A unified approach

Acta Numerica ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 1-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo Babuška ◽  
Uday Banerjee ◽  
John E. Osborn
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Finite Element Methods ◽  
Mesh Generation ◽  
Variational Principles ◽  
Meshless Methods ◽  
Nonlinear Pdes ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Complicated Geometry ◽  
Generalized Finite Element ◽  
Selection Of

In the past few years meshless methods for numerically solving partial differential equations have come into the focus of interest, especially in the engineering community. This class of methods was essentially stimulated by difficulties related to mesh generation. Mesh generation is delicate in many situations, for instance, when the domain has complicated geometry; when the mesh changes with time, as in crack propagation, and remeshing is required at each time step; when a Lagrangian formulation is employed, especially with nonlinear PDEs. In addition, the need for flexibility in the selection of approximating functions (e.g., the flexibility to use non-polynomial approximating functions), has played a significant role in the development of meshless methods. There are many recent papers, and two books, on meshless methods; most of them are of an engineering character, without any mathematical analysis.In this paper we address meshless methods and the closely related generalized finite element methods for solving linear elliptic equations, using variational principles. We give a unified mathematical theory with proofs, briefly address implementational aspects, present illustrative numerical examples, and provide a list of references to the current literature.The aim of the paper is to provide a survey of a part of this new field, with emphasis on mathematics. We present proofs of essential theorems because we feel these proofs are essential for the understanding of the mathematical aspects of meshless methods, which has approximation theory as a major ingredient. As always, any new field is stimulated by and related to older ideas. This will be visible in our paper.

scholarly journals Evaluating Phylogenetic Informativeness as a Predictor of Phylogenetic Signal for Metazoan, Fungal, and Mammalian Phylogenomic Data Sets

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesc López-Giráldez ◽  
Andrew H. Moeller ◽  
Jeffrey P. Townsend
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Signal ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Phylogenetic Informativeness ◽  
Phylogenetic Resolution ◽  
Taxonomic Groups ◽  
Diverse Groups ◽  
Simulated Data Sets ◽  
Selection Of

Phylogenetic research is often stymied by selection of a marker that leads to poor phylogenetic resolution despite considerable cost and effort. Profiles of phylogenetic informativeness provide a quantitative measure for prioritizing gene sampling to resolve branching order in a particular epoch. To evaluate the utility of these profiles, we analyzed phylogenomic data sets from metazoans, fungi, and mammals, thus encompassing diverse time scales and taxonomic groups. We also evaluated the utility of profiles created based on simulated data sets. We found that genes selected via their informativeness dramatically outperformed haphazard sampling of markers. Furthermore, our analyses demonstrate that the original phylogenetic informativeness method can be extended to trees with more than four taxa. Thus, although the method currently predicts phylogenetic signal without specifically accounting for the misleading effects of stochastic noise, it is robust to the effects of homoplasy. The phylogenetic informativeness rankings obtained will allow other researchers to select advantageous genes for future studies within these clades, maximizing return on effort and investment. Genes identified might also yield efficient experimental designs for phylogenetic inference for many sister clades and outgroup taxa that are closely related to the diverse groups of organisms analyzed.

scholarly journals Developing consensus of evidence to target case finding surveys for podoconiosis: a potentially forgotten disease in India

2020 ◽  
Vol 114 (12) ◽  
pp. 908-915
Author(s):  
Hope Simpson ◽  
K N Panicker ◽  
Leyanna Susan George ◽  
Jorge Cano ◽  
Melanie J Newport ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scaling Up ◽  
Case Finding ◽  
Rational Approach ◽  
National Strategy ◽  
State Health ◽  
National Programme ◽  
Environmental Suitability ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Significant Burden ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Background Podoconiosis is a non-infectious geochemical lymphoedema of the lower legs associated with a significant burden of morbidity. There are historical reports of podoconiosis in India, but its current endemicity status is uncertain. In this investigation we aimed to prioritise the selection of districts for pilot mapping of podoconiosis in India. Methods Through a consultative workshop bringing together expert opinion on podoconiosis with public health and NTDs in India, we developed a framework for the prioritisation of pilot areas. The four criteria for prioritisation were predicted environmental suitability for podoconiosis, higher relative poverty, occurrence of lymphoedema cases detected by the state health authorities and absence of morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) services provided by the National Programme for Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis. Results Environmental suitability for podoconiosis in India was predicted to be widespread, particularly in the mountainous east and hilly southwest of the country. Most of the districts with higher levels of poverty were in the central east and central west. Of 286 districts delineated by state representatives, lymphoedema was known to the health system in 189 districts and not recorded in 80. Information on MMDP services was unavailable for many districts, but 169 were known not to provide such services. We identified 35 districts across the country as high priority for mapping based on these criteria. Conclusions Our results indicate widespread presence of conditions associated with podoconiosis in India, including areas with known lymphoedema cases and without MMDP services. This work is intended to support a rational approach to surveying for an unrecognised, geographically focal, chronic disease in India, with a view to scaling up to inform a national strategy if required.

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