scholarly journals Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: Intense Surveillance Is Vital for Preventing Sustained Transmission in New Locations

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin N. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Imported Case ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
New Locations ◽  
Current Outbreak ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Times ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Mean Time

The outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 24,500 confirmed cases, including 492 deaths, as of 5 February 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread elsewhere in China and to 24 countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Japan and USA. Fortunately, there has only been limited human-to-human transmission outside of China. Here, we assess the risk of sustained transmission whenever the coronavirus arrives in other countries. Data describing the times from symptom onset to hospitalisation for 47 patients infected early in the current outbreak are used to generate an estimate for the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission. Under the assumptions that the imported case is representative of the patients in China, and that the 2019-nCoV is similarly transmissible to the SARS coronavirus, the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission is 0.41 (credible interval [0.27, 0.55]). However, if the mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation can be halved by intense surveillance, then the probability that an imported case leads to sustained transmission is only 0.012 (credible interval [0, 0.099]). This emphasises the importance of current surveillance efforts in countries around the world, to ensure that the ongoing outbreak will not become a global pandemic.

scholarly journals 2019-20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak: Intense surveillance is vital for preventing sustained transmission in new locations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.N. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Imported Case ◽  
The World ◽  
New Locations ◽  
Current Outbreak ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Times ◽  
Mean Time

ABSTRACTThe outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 830 confirmed cases, including 26 deaths, as of 24 January 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread elsewhere in China and to other countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Japan and USA. Fortunately, there has not yet been evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission outside of China. Here we assess the risk of sustained transmission whenever the coronavirus arrives in other countries. Data describing the times from symptom onset to hospitalisation for 47 patients infected in the current outbreak are used to generate an estimate for the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission. Under the assumptions that the imported case is representative of the patients in China, and that the 2019-nCoV is similarly transmissible to the SARS coronavirus, the probability that an imported case is followed by sustained human-to-human transmission is 0.37. However, if the mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation can be halved by intense surveillance, then the probability that an imported case leads to sustained transmission is only 0.005. This emphasises the importance of current surveillance efforts in countries around the world, to ensure that the ongoing outbreak will not become a large global epidemic.

scholarly journals Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20–28 January 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jantien A Backer ◽  
Don Klinkenberg ◽  
Jacco Wallinga
Keyword(s):  
Incubation Period ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Viral Pneumonia ◽  
Case Definitions ◽  
Travel History ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6–7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.

Development of a commercial price schedule for producers and processors of lambs

1989 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
DL Hopkins
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Carcass Weight ◽  
Commercial Application ◽  
Commercial Development ◽  
Time And Motion ◽  
Motion Study ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Fat Score ◽  
The Times ◽  
Mean Time

Equations were developed to predict the weight of trimmed retail (bone-in) cuts, trim, fat and bone from 321 lamb carcasses, ranging in carcass weight from 4.8 to 26.8 kg and in fat depth at the GR site (12th rib) from 1 to 31 mm. For commercial application, the equations were developed using a multiple regression program with the predictors carcass weight and GR. All equations explained a large amount of the variation in component weights (r2 = 0.76-0.99). A time and motion study using 172 carcasses showed that the times required to butcher carcasses of low fat (score 1 and 2) were similar. Likewise the mean time taken to butcher score 3 carcasses was similar to that of score 1 carcasses. However, it took significantly longer (P<0.05) to butcher score 3 carcasses than score 2 carcasses, and score 4 and 5 carcasses than score 3 carcasses. In addition, the mean times taken to butcher score 4 and 5 carcasses were significantly different (P< 0.05). By using multiple regression analysis it was shown that carcass weight, fatscore, their interaction and the butcher all significantly affected the butchering time. The findings of this work are discussed as they apply to the commercial development of price schedules and show that, when based on yield, lean heavy carcasses are more profitable for processing.

scholarly journals The spatiotemporal estimation of the risk and the international transmission of COVID-19: a global perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan-Chien Lin ◽  
Wan-Ju Chi ◽  
Yu-Ting Lin ◽  
Chun-Yeh Lai
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Imported Case ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Exponential Decrease ◽  
Risk Simulation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractAn ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Currently, the spatiotemporal epidemic transmission, prediction, and risk are insufficient for COVID-19 but we urgently need relevant information globally. We have developed a novel two-stage simulation model to simulate the spatiotemporal changes in the number of cases and estimate the future worldwide risk. Simulation results show that if there is no specific medicine for it, it will form a global pandemic. Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, and the United States are the most vulnerable. The relationship between each country's vulnerability and days before the first imported case occurred shows an exponential decrease. We successfully predicted the outbreak of South Korea, Japan, and Italy in the early stages of the global pandemic based on the information before February 12, 2020. The development of the epidemic is now earlier than we expected. However, the trend of spread is similar to our estimation.

scholarly journals Controlled thawing of foods

2000 ◽  
Vol 18 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 194-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Hoke ◽  
L. Klíma ◽  
R. Grée ◽  
M. Houška
Keyword(s):  
Power Level ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Hot Water ◽  
Similar Process ◽  
Hot Air ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Level 1 ◽  
The Times ◽  
Mean Time

The various ways of thawing of model food made for comparison of these processes from point of view of duration. The experiments were conducted under condition that the surface temperature of the thawed food did not overcome 15°C. Shortest mean time of thawing was achieved for vacuum-steam thawing. Regarding to the regime chosen the time of thawing varied between 18.4–29 min. The similar process of vacuum thawing with steam generated from hot water placed below the food was also successful. For this process the mean time of thawing was predicted between 30.5 and 35 min. If the starting temperature of the water was below the boiling point at vacuum level in the chamber the time of thawing was much longer (about 49 min). For hot air thawing we have tested two regimes with temperature of air 50 and 70°C. For both air temperatures the times of thawing were similar being 52.1 and 53.6 min, respectively. Microwave thawing was depending on the power of microwave oven. The time of thawing was achieved 28.9 min at power level 1, at power level “thawing” the process duration was 34.4 min.

scholarly journals Nepal’s Response to Contain COVID-19 Infection

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rano Mal Piryani ◽  
Suneel Piryani ◽  
Jay Narayan Shah
Keyword(s):  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Imported Case ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Global Status ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Nepal is a landlocked country bordering two most populous countries, India and China. Nepal shares open border with India from three sides, east, south and west. And, in north with China, where the novel coronavirus infection (CVOVID-19) began in late December 2019. The first confirmed imported case in Nepal was reported in 2nd week of January 2020. The initial response of Nepal to COVID-19 were comparably slow but country geared efforts after it was declared a ‘global pandemic’ by WHO on 11 March, 2020. Government of Nepal’s steps from 18 March, 2020 led to partial lock down and countrywide lockdown imposed on 24 March, 2020. Government devised comprehensive plan on 27 March, 2020 for quarantine for peoples who arrived in Nepal from COVID-19 affected countries. This article covers summary of global status, South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) status, and Nepal’s response to contain COVID-19 infection discussed under three headings: Steps taken before and after WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic and lab services regarding detection of COVID-19. Nepal has documented five confirmed cases of COVID-19 till the end of March 2020, first in second week of 15 January, 2020 and 2nd case 8-weeks thereafter and 3rd case two days later, 4th on 27 March and 5th on 28 March. Four more cases detected during first week of April. Non-Pharmacological interventions like social distancing and excellent personal habits are widely practiced. Country has to enhance testing and strengthen tracing, isolation and quarantine mechanism and care of COVID-19 patients as Nepal is in risk zone because of comparably weak health system and porous borders with India. The time will tell regarding further outbreak and how it will be tackled.Keywords: COVID-19; lockdown; Nepal; pandemic; response

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic and Nationwide Lockdown: How it Influenced Histo-cytopathology Practice?

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 294-297
Author(s):  
Palzum Sherpa ◽  
Shiva Raj KC ◽  
Manisha Shrestha ◽  
Dipti Gautam
Keyword(s):  
Age Distribution ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Tubal Ectopic Pregnancy ◽  
Diagnostic Categories ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Oncological Patients ◽  
Neoplastic Lesions ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Similar Incidence

Introduction: The 2019 novel coronavirus global pandemic compelled nationwide lockdown in Nepal with attendance of only urgent consultations and surgeries. This study aims to assess the volume, diagnostic categories, and age distribution of cases received in a histo-cytopathology laboratory so that laboratories can be prepared accordingly, to cope with a probable surge of COVID-19 or similar incidence in Nepal. Materials and Methods: A retrospective descriptive study was performed in the Pathology Department, Patan Academy of Health Sciences during first four weeks of nationwide lockdown from March 24 to April 24, 2020. The current data was compared with that of March 24 to April 24, 2019. Results: The volume of histopathology specimens was reduced by one-fifth and cytological samples by one-seventh. In histopathology, non-neoplastic lesions were 269 and 65, benign lesions 48 and 1, and malignancy 27 and 6 cases in the corresponding period of the previous year and COVID-19 lockdown period respectively. Appendix, product of conception, placenta, and tubal ectopic pregnancy constituted a major bulk of histopathology cases. The percentage of malignant cases reported in histopathology, as well as cytology, increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The mean age of patients was 37 years during the COVID-19 lockdown and 41 years in the previous year. Conclusions: Despite the reduction in the overall volume of histo-cytopathology samples, a higher rate of malignancy was recorded. This emphasizes the necessity of continuing histo-cytopathology services and delivering timely diagnosis even during such a contagion crisis so that oncological patients are not deprived of appropriate management.

Abstract TP232: A Biomarker Algorithm that Represents Time from Stroke Symptom Onset

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danielle N Doll ◽  
Steven D Brooks ◽  
Stephanie L Rellick ◽  
Reyna L VanGilder ◽  
Alan Cantor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Peripheral Blood ◽  
Stroke Onset ◽  
Stroke Severity ◽  
Blood Draw ◽  
Clinical Covariates ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Time

Background and Purpose: Time of onset is critical when treating ischemic stroke (IS). The purpose of this project was to investigate the use of our 9 gene profile to develop a biomarker algorithm that represents time from stroke onset for use in the clinical setting to improve utilization of tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) and streamline appropriate secondary prevention. Methods: Peripheral blood samples were collected from n=34 IS patients’ ≥18 years of age within 24 hours from symptom onset and 24-48 hours later. Total RNA was extracted from whole blood in Paxgene RNA tubes, amplified, and hybridized to Illumina HumanRef-8v2 bead chips. Gene expression was compared in a univariate manner between patients at both time points using t -test in GeneSpring. Inflation of type one error was corrected by Bonferroni. A linear regression was used to model the change in gene expression as a linear function of time when controlling for age. Results: The mean age of the sample was 71.9± (14.6 sd ) years. Mean time from symptom onset to acute blood draw was 9:29± (6:2 sd ) hours (range 2:35-23:02); to follow up blood draw was 29:24± (7.1 sd ) hours (range 18:45-43:30); and time between acute and follow up blood draw was 19:55± (3.3 sd ) hours (range 13:30-27:32). CA4 and ARG1 expression significantly decreased >1.5 fold, and LY96 expression by >2-fold between baseline and follow up. This decrease in expression was associated with an increase from time of stroke onset and remained significant for only LY96 expression when controlling for age. ARG1 and CA4 expression were significantly lower in older patients. Conclusions: Our profile provides evidence that the expression of LY96 , CA4 , and ARG1 in the peripheral blood may serve as a surrogate for determining the time of stroke onset. In clinical practice, an algorithm based on this biomarker profile and other clinical covariates could be used when time of onset is unknown. To increase the accuracy of our biomarker algorithm, it will be important to determine the effects of age, stroke severity, and other clinical covariates on the expression of these genes over time.

A bounded growth population subjected to emigrations due to population pressure

1981 ◽  
Vol 18 (03) ◽  
pp. 571-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. C. Trajstman
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Pressure ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Time To Extinction ◽  
Mean Time To Extinction ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Times ◽  
Negative Exponential ◽  
Mean Time

A model is presented for a bounded growth population subjected to random-sized emigrations that occur due to population pressure. The deterministic growth component examined in detail is defined by a Prendiville process. Results are obtained for the times between emigration events and for the population increase between emigrations. Some information is obtained about the mean time to extinction and also for the mean population level when the emigration-size distribution is negative exponential.

Hotel Space Design and Planning and the Trend in its Development

2011 ◽  
Vol 255-260 ◽  
pp. 1512-1517
Author(s):  
Gao Min Shi
Keyword(s):  
Traditional Culture ◽  
Space Design ◽  
Scientific Analysis ◽  
Survival And Development ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Times ◽  
Mean Time

The design and planning of hotel space should be based on the survival and development of hotels. The designer should try to make his design and planning comprehensive and accurate, highlighting the function and features of the targeted hotel space. In the mean time, the designer, when designing and planning the hotel space, should keep up closely with the times, follow the trend in which traditional culture converges and integrates with modern civilization, insist on people foremost, make scientific analysis and appraisal, integrate various resources, so as to maximize the value of a hotel and enhance its vitality and competitiveness in markets.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document