scholarly journals Monitoring and Forecasting the Impact of the 2018 Summer Heatwave on Vegetation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Emanuel Dutra ◽  
Bertrand Bonan ◽  
Yongjun Zheng ◽  
Simon Munier ◽  
...  

This study aims to assess the potential of the LDAS-Monde platform, a land data assimilation system developed by Météo-France, to monitor the impact on vegetation state of the 2018 summer heatwave over Western Europe. The LDAS-Monde is driven by ECMWF’s (i) ERA5 reanalysis, and (ii) the Integrated Forecasting System High Resolution operational analysis (IFS-HRES), used in conjunction with the assimilation of Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) satellite-derived products, namely the Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). The study of long time series of satellite derived CGLS LAI (2000–2018) and SSM (2008–2018) highlights marked negative anomalies for July 2018 affecting large areas of northwestern Europe and reflects the impact of the heatwave. Such large anomalies spreading over a large part of the domain of interest have never been observed in the LAI product over this 19-year period. LDAS-Monde land surface reanalyses were produced at spatial resolutions of 0.25° × 0.25° (January 2008 to October 2018) and 0.10° × 0.10° (April 2016 to December 2018). Both configurations of LDAS-Monde forced by either ERA5 or HRES capture well the vegetation state in general and for this specific event, with HRES configuration exhibiting better monitoring skills than ERA5 configuration. The consistency of ERA5- and IFS HRES-driven simulations over the common period (April 2016 to October 2018) allowed to disentangle and appreciate the origin of improvements observed between the ERA5 and HRES. Another experiment, down-scaling ERA5 to HRES spatial resolutions, was performed. Results suggest that land surface spatial resolution is key (e.g., associated to a better representation of the land cover, topography) and using HRES forcing still enhances the skill. While there are advantages in using HRES, there is added value in down-scaling ERA5, which can provide consistent, long term, high resolution land reanalysis. If the improvement from LDAS-Monde analysis on control variables (soil moisture from layers 2 to 8 of the model representing the first meter of soil and LAI) from the assimilation of SSM and LAI was expected, other model variables benefit from the assimilation through biophysical processes and feedback in the model. Finally, we also found added value of initializing 8-day land surface HRES driven forecasts from LDAS-Monde analysis when compared with model-only initial conditions.

Author(s):  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Emanuel Dutra ◽  
Bertrand Bonan ◽  
Yongjun Zheng ◽  
Simon Munier ◽  
...  

This study aims to assess the potential of the LDAS-Monde a land data assimilation system developed by Météo-France to monitor the impact of the 2018 summer heatwave over western Europe vegetation state. The LDAS-Monde is forced by the ECMWF’s (i) ERA5 reanalysis, and (ii) the Integrated Forecasting System High Resolution operational analysis (IFS-HRES), used in conjunction with the assimilation of Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) satellite derived products, namely the Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). Analysis of long time series of satellite derived CGLS LAI (2000-2018) and SSM (2008-2018) highlights marked negative anomalies for July 2018 affecting large areas of North Western Europe and reflects the impact of the heatwave. Such large anomalies spreading over a large part of the considered domain have never been observed in the LAI product over this 18-yr period. The LDAS-Monde land surface reanalyses were produced at spatial resolutions of 0.25°x0.25° (January 2008 to October 2018) and 0.10°x0.10° (April 2016 to December 2018). Both configuration of the LDAS-Monde forced by either ERA5 or HRES capture well the vegetation state in general and for this specific event, with HRES configuration exhibiting better monitoring skills than ERA5 configuration. The consistency of ERA5 and IFS HRES driven simulations over the common period (April 2016 to October 2018) allowed to disentangle and appreciate the origin of improvements observed between the ERA5 and HRES. Another experiment, down-scaling ERA5 to HRES spatial resolutions, was performed. Results suggest that land surface spatial resolution is key (e.g. associated to a better representation of the land cover, topography) and using HRES forcing still enhance the skill. While there are advantages in using HRES, there is added value in down-scaling ERA5, which can provide consistent, long term, high resolution land reanalysis. If the improvement from LDAS-Monde analysis on control variables (soil moisture from layers 2 to 8 of the model representing the first meter of soil and LAI) from the assimilation of SSM and LAI was expected, other model variables benefit from the assimilation through biophysical processes and feedbacks in the model. Finally, we also found added value of initializing 8-day land surface HRES driven forecasts from LDAS-Monde analysis when compared with model only initial conditions.


Author(s):  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Simon Munier ◽  
Aymeric Bocher ◽  
Bertrand Bonan ◽  
Yongjun Zheng ◽  
...  

LDAS-Monde, an offline land data assimilation system with global capacity, is applied over the CONtiguous US (CONUS) domain to enhance monitoring accuracy for water and energy states and fluxes. LDAS-Monde ingests satellite-derived Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) estimates to constrain the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) Land Surface Model (LSM) coupled with the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) version of the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (CTRIP) continental hydrological system (ISBA-CTRIP). LDAS-Monde is forced by the ERA-5 atmospheric reanalysis from the European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) from 2010 to 2016 leading to a 7-yr, quarter degree spatial resolution offline reanalysis of Land Surface Variables (LSVs) over CONUS. The impact of assimilating LAI and SSM into LDAS-Monde is assessed over North America, by comparison to satellite-driven model estimates of land evapotranspiration from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) project, and upscaled ground-based observations of gross primary productivity from the FLUXCOM project. Also, taking advantage of the relatively dense data networks over CONUS, we also evaluate the impact of the assimilation against in-situ measurements of soil moisture from the USCRN network (US Climate Reference Network) are used in the evaluation, together with river discharges from the United States Geophysical Survey (USGS) and the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). Those data sets highlight the added value of assimilating satellite derived observations compared to an open-loop simulation (i.e. no assimilation). It is shown that LDAS-Monde has the ability not only to monitor land surface variables but also to forecast them, by providing improved initial conditions which impacts persist through time. LDAS-Monde reanalysis has a potential to be used to monitor extreme events like agricultural drought, also. Finally, limitations related to LDAS-Monde and current satellite-derived observations are exposed as well as several insights on how to use alternative datasets to analyze soil moisture and vegetation state.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3135-3149 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Panegrossi ◽  
R. Ferretti ◽  
L. Pulvirenti ◽  
N. Pierdicca

Abstract. The representation of land-atmosphere interactions in weather forecast models has a strong impact on the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and, in turn, on the forecast. Soil moisture is one of the key variables in land surface modelling, and an inadequate initial soil moisture field can introduce major biases in the surface heat and moisture fluxes and have a long-lasting effect on the model behaviour. Detecting the variability of soil characteristics at small scales is particularly important in mesoscale models because of the continued increase of their spatial resolution. In this paper, the high resolution soil moisture field derived from ENVISAT/ASAR observations is used to derive the soil moisture initial condition for the MM5 simulation of the Tanaro flood event of April 2009. The ASAR-derived soil moisture field shows significantly drier conditions compared to the ECMWF analysis. The impact of soil moisture on the forecast has been evaluated in terms of predicted precipitation and rain gauge data available for this event have been used as ground truth. The use of the drier, highly resolved soil moisture content (SMC) shows a significant impact on the precipitation forecast, particularly evident during the early phase of the event. The timing of the onset of the precipitation, as well as the intensity of rainfall and the location of rain/no rain areas, are better predicted. The overall accuracy of the forecast using ASAR SMC data is significantly increased during the first 30 h of simulation. The impact of initial SMC on the precipitation has been related to the change in the water vapour field in the PBL prior to the onset of the precipitation, due to surface evaporation. This study represents a first attempt to establish whether high resolution SAR-based SMC data might be useful for operational use, in anticipation of the launch of the Sentinel-1 satellite.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moustapha Tall ◽  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Bertrand Bonan ◽  
Yongjun Zheng ◽  
Françoise Guichard ◽  
...  

This study focuses on the ability of the global Land Data Assimilation System, LDAS-Monde, to improve the representation of land surface variables (LSVs) over Burkina-Faso through the joint assimilation of satellite derived surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) from January 2001 to June 2018. The LDAS-Monde offline system is forced by the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 as well as ERA-Interim former reanalysis, leading to reanalyses of LSVs at 0.25° × 0.25° and 0.50° × 0.50° spatial resolution, respectively. Within LDAS-Monde, SSM and LAI observations from the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) are assimilated with a simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF) using the CO2-responsive version of the ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). First, it is shown that ERA5 better represents precipitation and incoming solar radiation than ERA-Interim former reanalysis from ECMWF based on in situ data. Results of four experiments are then compared: Open-loop simulation (i.e., no assimilation) and analysis (i.e., joint assimilation of SSM and LAI) forced by either ERA5 or ERA-Interim. After jointly assimilating SSM and LAI, it is noticed that the assimilation is able to impact soil moisture in the first top soil layers (the first 20 cm), and also in deeper soil layers (from 20 cm to 60 cm and below), as reflected by the structure of the SEKF Jacobians. The added value of using ERA5 reanalysis over ERA-Interim when used in LDAS-Monde is highlighted. The assimilation is able to improve the simulation of both SSM and LAI: The analyses add skill to both configurations, indicating the healthy behavior of LDAS-Monde. For LAI in particular, the southern region of the domain (dominated by a Sudan-Guinean climate) highlights a strong impact of the assimilation compared to the other two sub-regions of Burkina-Faso (dominated by Sahelian and Sudan-Sahelian climates). In the southern part of the domain, differences between the model and the observations are the largest, prior to any assimilation. These differences are linked to the model failing to represent the behavior of some specific vegetation species, which are known to put on leaves before the first rains of the season. The LDAS-Monde analysis is very efficient at compensating for this model weakness. Evapotranspiration estimates from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) project as well as upscaled carbon uptake from the FLUXCOM project and sun-induced fluorescence from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) are used in the evaluation process, again demonstrating improvements in the representation of evapotranspiration and gross primary production after assimilation.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 5693-5708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Etchanchu ◽  
Vincent Rivalland ◽  
Simon Gascoin ◽  
Jérôme Cros ◽  
Tiphaine Tallec ◽  
...  

Abstract. Agricultural landscapes are often constituted by a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution is dependent on specific crop rotation patterns and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity affects surface hydrometeorological processes and must be taken into account in simulations of land surface and distributed hydrological models. The Sentinel-2 mission allows for the monitoring of land cover and vegetation dynamics at unprecedented spatial resolutions and revisit frequencies (20 m and 5 days, respectively) that are fully compatible with such heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Here, we evaluate the impact of Sentinel-2-like remote sensing data on the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes via the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model included in the EXternalized SURface (SURFEX) modeling platform. The study focuses on the effect of the leaf area index (LAI) spatial and temporal variability on these fluxes. We compare the use of the LAI climatology from ECOCLIMAP-II, used by default in SURFEX-ISBA, and time series of LAI derived from the high-resolution Formosat-2 satellite data (8 m). The study area is an agricultural zone in southwestern France covering 576 km2 (24 km  ×  24 km). An innovative plot-scale approach is used, in which each computational unit has a homogeneous vegetation type. Evaluation of the simulations quality is done by comparing model outputs with in situ eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux (LE). Our results show that the use of LAI derived from high-resolution remote sensing significantly improves simulated evapotranspiration with respect to ECOCLIMAP-II, especially when the surface is covered with summer crops. The comparison with in situ measurements shows an improvement of roughly 0.3 in the correlation coefficient and a decrease of around 30 % of the root mean square error (RMSE) in the simulated evapotranspiration. This finding is attributable to a better description of LAI evolution processes with Formosat-2 data, which further modify soil water content and drainage of soil reservoirs. Effects on annual drainage patterns remain small but significant, i.e., an increase roughly equivalent to 4 % of annual precipitation levels with simulations using Formosat-2 data in comparison to the reference simulation values. This study illustrates the potential for the Sentinel-2 mission to better represent effects of crop management on water budgeting for large, anthropized river basins.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Etchanchu ◽  
Vincent Rivalland ◽  
Simon Gascoin ◽  
Jérôme Cros ◽  
Aurore Brut ◽  
...  

Abstract. Agricultural landscapes often include a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution is dependent on specific crop rotation patterns and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity affects surface hydrometeorological processes as simulated by land surface and distributed hydrological models. Sentinel-2 mission satellite remote sensing products allow for the monitoring of land cover and vegetation dynamics at unprecedented spatial resolutions and revisit frequencies (20 m and 5 days, respectively) that are fully compatible with such heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Here, we evaluate the impact of Sentinel-2-like remote sensing data on the simulation of surface water and energy flux via the ISBA-SURFEX land surface model. The study area is a 24 km by 24 km agricultural zone in southwestern France. An initial reference simulation was conducted from 2006–2010 using the ECOCLIMAP-II database. This global numerical land ecosystem database was created at a 1 km resolution and includes an ecosystem classification with a consistent set of land surface parameters required for the model, such as the Leaf Area Index (LAI) and albedo measures. The LAI of ECOCLIMAP is climatologic and derived from a 2000–2005 analysis of MODIS satellite products. This low resolution induces that several vegetation covers can be mixed in a model cell. The climatic construction of LAI dynamics also suggests that there is no interannual variability in the vegetation cycle. A second simulation was performed by forcing the same model with annual land cover maps and monthly LAI values derived from a series of 105 8 m-resolution Formosat-2 images for the same period. Both simulations were conducted at the parcel scale, i.e., a computation unit covers an area of connected pixels of the same vegetation type (a crop field, forest patch, etc.). To evaluate our simulations, we used in situ measurements of evapotranspiration and latent and sensible heat flux from two eddy covariance stations in the study area. Our results show that the use of Formosat-2 high-resolution products significantly improves simulated evapotranspiration results with respect to ECOCLIMAP-II, especially when a surface is covered with summer crops (the correlation coefficient with monthly measurements is increased by roughly 0.3 and the root mean square error is decreased by roughly 31 %). This finding is attributable to a better description of LAI evolution processes reflected by Formosat-2 data, which further modify soil water content and drainage levels of deep soil reservoirs. Effects on annual drainage patterns remain small but significant, i.e., an increase roughly equivalent to 4 % of annual precipitation levels from Formosat-2 data in comparison to reference values. In smaller proportions, runoff is also increased by roughly 1 % of annual precipitation when using Formosat-2 data. This study illustrates the potential for the Sentinel-2 mission to better represent effects of crop management on water budgeting for large, anthropized river basins.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 793-819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph A. Santanello Jr. ◽  
Patricia Lawston ◽  
Sujay Kumar ◽  
Eli Dennis

Abstract The role of soil moisture in NWP has gained more attention in recent years, as studies have demonstrated impacts of land surface states on ambient weather from diurnal to seasonal scales. However, soil moisture initialization approaches in coupled models remain quite diverse in terms of their complexity and observational roots, while assessment using bulk forecast statistics can be simplistic and misleading. In this study, a suite of soil moisture initialization approaches is used to generate short-term coupled forecasts over the U.S. Southern Great Plains using NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) and NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling systems. This includes a wide range of currently used initialization approaches, including soil moisture derived from “off the shelf” products such as atmospheric models and land data assimilation systems, high-resolution land surface model spinups, and satellite-based soil moisture products from SMAP. Results indicate that the spread across initialization approaches can be quite large in terms of soil moisture conditions and spatial resolution, and that SMAP performs well in terms of heterogeneity and temporal dynamics when compared against high-resolution land surface model and in situ soil moisture estimates. Case studies are analyzed using the local land–atmosphere coupling (LoCo) framework that relies on integrated assessment of soil moisture, surface flux, boundary layer, and ambient weather, with results highlighting the critical role of inherent model background biases. In addition, simultaneous assessment of land versus atmospheric initial conditions in an integrated, process-level fashion can help address the question of whether improvements in traditional NWP verification statistics are achieved for the right reasons.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Mucia ◽  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Bertrand Bonan ◽  
Yongjun Zheng ◽  
Jean-Christophe Calvet

<p>LDAS-Monde is a global Land Data Assimilation System developed in the research department of Météo-France (CNRM) to monitor Land Surface Variables (LSVs) at various scales, from regional to global. With LDAS-Monde, it is possible to assimilate satellite derived observations of Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) e.g. from the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS). It is an offline system normally driven by atmospheric reanalyses such as ECMWF ERA5.</p><p>In this study we investigate LDAS-Monde ability to use atmospheric forecasts to predict LSV states up to weeks in advance. In addition to the accuracy of the forecast predictions, the impact of the initialization on the LSVs forecast is addressed. To perform this study, LDAS-Monde is forced by a fifteen-day forecast from ECMWF for the 2017-2018 period over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at 0.2<sup>o</sup> x 0.2<sup>o</sup> spatial resolution. These LSVs forecasts are initialized either by the model alone (LDAS-Monde open-loop, no assimilation, Fc_ol) or by the analysis (assimilation of SSM and LAI, Fc_an). These two sets of forecast are then assessed using satellite derived observations of SSM and LAI, evapotranspiration estimates, as well as in situ measurements of soil moisture from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). Results indicate that for the three evaluation variables (SSM, LAI, and evapotranspiration), LDAS-Monde provides reasonably accurate predictions two weeks in advance. Additionally, the initial conditions are shown to make a positive impact with respect to LAI, evapotranspiration, and deeper layers of soil moisture when using Fc_an. Moreover, this impact persists in time, particularly for vegetation related variables. Other model variables (such as runoff and drainage) are also affected by the initial conditions. Future work will focus on the transfer of this predictive information from a research to stakeholder tool.</p>


2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (7) ◽  
pp. 2481-2498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celeste Saulo ◽  
Lorena Ferreira ◽  
Julia Nogués-Paegle ◽  
Marcelo Seluchi ◽  
Juan Ruiz

Abstract The impact of changes in soil moisture in subtropical Argentina in rainfall distribution and low-level circulation is studied with a state-of-the-art regional model in a downscaling mode, with different scenarios of soil moisture for a 10-day period. The selected case (starting 29 January 2003) was characterized by a northwestern Argentina low event associated with well-defined low-level northerly flow that extended east of the Andes over subtropical latitudes. Four tests were conducted at 40-km horizontal resolution with 31 sigma levels, decreasing and increasing the soil moisture initial condition by 50% over the entire domain, and imposing a 50% reduction over northwest Argentina and 50% increase over southeast South America. A control run with NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) initial conditions was used to assess the impact of the different soil moisture configurations. It was found that land surface interactions are stronger when soil moisture is decreased, with a coherent reduction of precipitation over southern South America. Enhanced northerly winds result from an increase in the zonal gradient of pressure at low levels. In contrast, when soil moisture is increased, smaller circulation changes are found, although there appears to be a local feedback effect between the land and precipitation. The combined effects of changes in the circulation and in local stratification induced by soil wetness modifications, through variations in evaporation and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), are in agreement with what has been found by other studies, resulting in coherent modifications of precipitation when variations of CAPE and moisture flux convergence mutually reinforce.


2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 325-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bertrand Bonan ◽  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Yongjun Zheng ◽  
Alina Lavinia Barbu ◽  
David Fairbairn ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper introduces an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) in the context of jointly assimilating observations of surface soil moisture (SSM) and the leaf area index (LAI) in the Land Data Assimilation System LDAS-Monde. By ingesting those satellite-derived products, LDAS-Monde constrains the Interaction between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model (LSM), coupled with the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) version of the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (CTRIP) model to improve the reanalysis of land surface variables (LSVs). To evaluate its ability to produce improved LSVs reanalyses, the EnSRF is compared with the simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF), which has been well studied within the LDAS-Monde framework. The comparison is carried out over the Euro-Mediterranean region at a 0.25∘ spatial resolution between 2008 and 2017. Both data assimilation approaches provide a positive impact on SSM and LAI estimates with respect to the model alone, putting them closer to assimilated observations. The SEKF and the EnSRF have a similar behaviour for LAI showing performance levels that are influenced by the vegetation type. For SSM, EnSRF estimates tend to be closer to observations than SEKF values. The comparison between the two data assimilation approaches is also carried out on unobserved soil moisture in the other layers of soil. Unobserved control variables are updated in the EnSRF through covariances and correlations sampled from the ensemble linking them to observed control variables. In our context, a strong correlation between SSM and soil moisture in deeper soil layers is found, as expected, showing seasonal patterns that vary geographically. Moderate correlation and anti-correlations are also noticed between LAI and soil moisture, varying in space and time. Their absolute value, reaching their maximum in summer and their minimum in winter, tends to be larger for soil moisture in root-zone areas, showing that assimilating LAI can have an influence on soil moisture. Finally an independent evaluation of both assimilation approaches is conducted using satellite estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) as well as measures of river discharges from gauging stations. The EnSRF shows a systematic albeit moderate improvement of root mean square differences (RMSDs) and correlations for ET and GPP products, but its main improvement is observed on river discharges with a high positive impact on Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency scores. Compared to the EnSRF, the SEKF displays a more contrasting performance.


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