scholarly journals Impact of ASAR soil moisture data on the MM5 precipitation forecast for the Tanaro flood event of April 2009

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3135-3149 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Panegrossi ◽  
R. Ferretti ◽  
L. Pulvirenti ◽  
N. Pierdicca

Abstract. The representation of land-atmosphere interactions in weather forecast models has a strong impact on the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and, in turn, on the forecast. Soil moisture is one of the key variables in land surface modelling, and an inadequate initial soil moisture field can introduce major biases in the surface heat and moisture fluxes and have a long-lasting effect on the model behaviour. Detecting the variability of soil characteristics at small scales is particularly important in mesoscale models because of the continued increase of their spatial resolution. In this paper, the high resolution soil moisture field derived from ENVISAT/ASAR observations is used to derive the soil moisture initial condition for the MM5 simulation of the Tanaro flood event of April 2009. The ASAR-derived soil moisture field shows significantly drier conditions compared to the ECMWF analysis. The impact of soil moisture on the forecast has been evaluated in terms of predicted precipitation and rain gauge data available for this event have been used as ground truth. The use of the drier, highly resolved soil moisture content (SMC) shows a significant impact on the precipitation forecast, particularly evident during the early phase of the event. The timing of the onset of the precipitation, as well as the intensity of rainfall and the location of rain/no rain areas, are better predicted. The overall accuracy of the forecast using ASAR SMC data is significantly increased during the first 30 h of simulation. The impact of initial SMC on the precipitation has been related to the change in the water vapour field in the PBL prior to the onset of the precipitation, due to surface evaporation. This study represents a first attempt to establish whether high resolution SAR-based SMC data might be useful for operational use, in anticipation of the launch of the Sentinel-1 satellite.

Author(s):  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Emanuel Dutra ◽  
Bertrand Bonan ◽  
Yongjun Zheng ◽  
Simon Munier ◽  
...  

This study aims to assess the potential of the LDAS-Monde a land data assimilation system developed by Météo-France to monitor the impact of the 2018 summer heatwave over western Europe vegetation state. The LDAS-Monde is forced by the ECMWF’s (i) ERA5 reanalysis, and (ii) the Integrated Forecasting System High Resolution operational analysis (IFS-HRES), used in conjunction with the assimilation of Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) satellite derived products, namely the Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). Analysis of long time series of satellite derived CGLS LAI (2000-2018) and SSM (2008-2018) highlights marked negative anomalies for July 2018 affecting large areas of North Western Europe and reflects the impact of the heatwave. Such large anomalies spreading over a large part of the considered domain have never been observed in the LAI product over this 18-yr period. The LDAS-Monde land surface reanalyses were produced at spatial resolutions of 0.25°x0.25° (January 2008 to October 2018) and 0.10°x0.10° (April 2016 to December 2018). Both configuration of the LDAS-Monde forced by either ERA5 or HRES capture well the vegetation state in general and for this specific event, with HRES configuration exhibiting better monitoring skills than ERA5 configuration. The consistency of ERA5 and IFS HRES driven simulations over the common period (April 2016 to October 2018) allowed to disentangle and appreciate the origin of improvements observed between the ERA5 and HRES. Another experiment, down-scaling ERA5 to HRES spatial resolutions, was performed. Results suggest that land surface spatial resolution is key (e.g. associated to a better representation of the land cover, topography) and using HRES forcing still enhance the skill. While there are advantages in using HRES, there is added value in down-scaling ERA5, which can provide consistent, long term, high resolution land reanalysis. If the improvement from LDAS-Monde analysis on control variables (soil moisture from layers 2 to 8 of the model representing the first meter of soil and LAI) from the assimilation of SSM and LAI was expected, other model variables benefit from the assimilation through biophysical processes and feedbacks in the model. Finally, we also found added value of initializing 8-day land surface HRES driven forecasts from LDAS-Monde analysis when compared with model only initial conditions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Emanuel Dutra ◽  
Bertrand Bonan ◽  
Yongjun Zheng ◽  
Simon Munier ◽  
...  

This study aims to assess the potential of the LDAS-Monde platform, a land data assimilation system developed by Météo-France, to monitor the impact on vegetation state of the 2018 summer heatwave over Western Europe. The LDAS-Monde is driven by ECMWF’s (i) ERA5 reanalysis, and (ii) the Integrated Forecasting System High Resolution operational analysis (IFS-HRES), used in conjunction with the assimilation of Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) satellite-derived products, namely the Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) and the Leaf Area Index (LAI). The study of long time series of satellite derived CGLS LAI (2000–2018) and SSM (2008–2018) highlights marked negative anomalies for July 2018 affecting large areas of northwestern Europe and reflects the impact of the heatwave. Such large anomalies spreading over a large part of the domain of interest have never been observed in the LAI product over this 19-year period. LDAS-Monde land surface reanalyses were produced at spatial resolutions of 0.25° × 0.25° (January 2008 to October 2018) and 0.10° × 0.10° (April 2016 to December 2018). Both configurations of LDAS-Monde forced by either ERA5 or HRES capture well the vegetation state in general and for this specific event, with HRES configuration exhibiting better monitoring skills than ERA5 configuration. The consistency of ERA5- and IFS HRES-driven simulations over the common period (April 2016 to October 2018) allowed to disentangle and appreciate the origin of improvements observed between the ERA5 and HRES. Another experiment, down-scaling ERA5 to HRES spatial resolutions, was performed. Results suggest that land surface spatial resolution is key (e.g., associated to a better representation of the land cover, topography) and using HRES forcing still enhances the skill. While there are advantages in using HRES, there is added value in down-scaling ERA5, which can provide consistent, long term, high resolution land reanalysis. If the improvement from LDAS-Monde analysis on control variables (soil moisture from layers 2 to 8 of the model representing the first meter of soil and LAI) from the assimilation of SSM and LAI was expected, other model variables benefit from the assimilation through biophysical processes and feedback in the model. Finally, we also found added value of initializing 8-day land surface HRES driven forecasts from LDAS-Monde analysis when compared with model-only initial conditions.


2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret A. LeMone ◽  
Fei Chen ◽  
Joseph G. Alfieri ◽  
Mukul Tewari ◽  
Bart Geerts ◽  
...  

Abstract Analyses of daytime fair-weather aircraft and surface-flux tower data from the May–June 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) and the April–May 1997 Cooperative Atmosphere Surface Exchange Study (CASES-97) are used to document the role of vegetation, soil moisture, and terrain in determining the horizontal variability of latent heat LE and sensible heat H along a 46-km flight track in southeast Kansas. Combining the two field experiments clearly reveals the strong influence of vegetation cover, with H maxima over sparse/dormant vegetation, and H minima over green vegetation; and, to a lesser extent, LE maxima over green vegetation, and LE minima over sparse/dormant vegetation. If the small number of cases is producing the correct trend, other effects of vegetation and the impact of soil moisture emerge through examining the slope ΔxyLE/ΔxyH for the best-fit straight line for plots of time-averaged LE as a function of time-averaged H over the area. Based on the surface energy balance, H + LE = Rnet − Gsfc, where Rnet is the net radiation and Gsfc is the flux into the soil; Rnet − Gsfc ∼ constant over the area implies an approximately −1 slope. Right after rainfall, H and LE vary too little horizontally to define a slope. After sufficient drying to produce enough horizontal variation to define a slope, a steep (∼−2) slope emerges. The slope becomes shallower and better defined with time as H and LE horizontal variability increases. Similarly, the slope becomes more negative with moister soils. In addition, the slope can change with time of day due to phase differences in H and LE. These trends are based on land surface model (LSM) runs and observations collected under nearly clear skies; the vegetation is unstressed for the days examined. LSM runs suggest terrain may also play a role, but observational support is weak.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 2187-2201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pere Quintana-Seguí ◽  
Marco Turco ◽  
Sixto Herrera ◽  
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho

Abstract. Offline land surface model (LSM) simulations are useful for studying the continental hydrological cycle. Because of the nonlinearities in the models, the results are very sensitive to the quality of the meteorological forcing; thus, high-quality gridded datasets of screen-level meteorological variables are needed. Precipitation datasets are particularly difficult to produce due to the inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of that variable. They do, however, have a large impact on the simulations, and it is thus necessary to carefully evaluate their quality in great detail. This paper reports the quality of two high-resolution precipitation datasets for Spain at the daily time scale: the new SAFRAN-based dataset and Spain02. SAFRAN is a meteorological analysis system that was designed to force LSMs and has recently been extended to the entirety of Spain for a long period of time (1979/1980–2013/2014). Spain02 is a daily precipitation dataset for Spain and was created mainly to validate regional climate models. In addition, ERA-Interim is included in the comparison to show the differences between local high-resolution and global low-resolution products. The study compares the different precipitation analyses with rain gauge data and assesses their temporal and spatial similarities to the observations. The validation of SAFRAN with independent data shows that this is a robust product. SAFRAN and Spain02 have very similar scores, although the latter slightly surpasses the former. The scores are robust with altitude and throughout the year, save perhaps in summer when a diminished skill is observed. As expected, SAFRAN and Spain02 perform better than ERA-Interim, which has difficulty capturing the effects of the relief on precipitation due to its low resolution. However, ERA-Interim reproduces spells remarkably well in contrast to the low skill shown by the high-resolution products. The high-resolution gridded products overestimate the number of precipitation days, which is a problem that affects SAFRAN more than Spain02 and is likely caused by the interpolation method. Both SAFRAN and Spain02 underestimate high precipitation events, but SAFRAN does so more than Spain02. The overestimation of low precipitation events and the underestimation of intense episodes will probably have hydrological consequences once the data are used to force a land surface or hydrological model.


2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 4223-4238 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Tsarouchi ◽  
W. Buytaert ◽  
A. Mijic

Abstract. Land-Surface Models (LSMs) are tools that represent energy and water flux exchanges between land and the atmosphere. Although much progress has been made in adding detailed physical processes into these models, there is much room left for improved estimates of evapotranspiration fluxes, by including a more reasonable and accurate representation of crop dynamics. Recent studies suggest a strong land-surface–atmosphere coupling over India and since this is one of the most intensively cultivated areas in the world, the strong impact of crops on the evaporative flux cannot be neglected. In this study we dynamically couple the LSM JULES with the crop growth model InfoCrop. JULES in its current version (v3.4) does not simulate crop growth. Instead, it treats crops as natural grass, while using prescribed vegetation parameters. Such simplification might lead to modelling errors. Therefore we developed a coupled modelling scheme that simulates dynamically crop development and parametrized it for the two main crops of the study area, wheat and rice. This setup is used to examine the impact of inter-seasonal land cover changes in evapotranspiration fluxes of the Upper Ganges River basin (India). The sensitivity of JULES with regard to the dynamics of the vegetation cover is evaluated. Our results show that the model is sensitive to the changes introduced after coupling it with the crop model. Evapotranspiration fluxes, which are significantly different between the original and the coupled model, are giving an approximation of the magnitude of error to be expected in LSMs that do not include dynamic crop growth. For the wet season, in the original model, the monthly Mean Error ranges from 7.5 to 24.4 mm month−1, depending on different precipitation forcing. For the same season, in the coupled model, the monthly Mean Error's range is reduced to 5.4–11.6 mm month−1. For the dry season, in the original model, the monthly Mean Error ranges from 10 to 17 mm month−1, depending on different precipitation forcing. For the same season, in the coupled model, the monthly Mean Error's range is reduced to 2.2–3.4 mm month−1. The new modelling scheme, by offering increased accuracy of evapotranspiration estimations, is an important step towards a better understanding of the two-way crops–atmosphere interactions.


2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 875-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Steppeler ◽  
S.-H. Park ◽  
A. Dobler

Abstract. This paper investigates the impact and potential use of the cut-cell vertical discretisation for forecasts covering five days and climate simulations. A first indication of the usefulness of this new method is obtained by a set of five-day forecasts, covering January 1989 with six forecasts. The model area was chosen to include much of Asia, the Himalayas and Australia. The cut-cell model LMZ (Lokal Modell with z-coordinates) provides a much more accurate representation of mountains on model forecasts than the terrain-following coordinate used for comparison. Therefore we are in particular interested in potential forecast improvements in the target area downwind of the Himalayas, over southeastern China, Korea and Japan. The LMZ has previously been tested extensively for one-day forecasts on a European area. Following indications of a reduced temperature error for the short forecasts, this paper investigates the model error for five days in an area influenced by strong orography. The forecasts indicated a strong impact of the cut-cell discretisation on forecast quality. The cut-cell model is available only for an older (2003) version of the model LM (Lokal Modell). It was compared using a control model differing by the use of the terrain-following coordinate only. The cut-cell model improved the precipitation forecasts of this old control model everywhere by a large margin. An improved, more transferable version of the terrain-following model LM has been developed since then under the name CLM (Climate version of the Lokal Modell). The CLM has been used and tested in all climates, while the LM was used for small areas in higher latitudes. The precipitation forecasts of the cut-cell model were compared also to the CLM. As the cut-cell model LMZ did not incorporate the developments for CLM since 2003, the precipitation forecast of the CLM was not improved in all aspects. However, for the target area downstream of the Himalayas, the cut-cell model considerably improved the prediction of the monthly precipitation forecast even in comparison with the modern CLM version. The cut-cell discretisation seems to improve in particular the localisation of precipitation, while the improvements leading from LM to CLM had a positive effect mainly on amplitude.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2031-2055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Schwitalla ◽  
Hans-Stefan Bauer ◽  
Volker Wulfmeyer ◽  
Kirsten Warrach-Sagi

Abstract. Increasing computational resources and the demands of impact modelers, stake holders, and society envision seasonal and climate simulations with the convection-permitting resolution. So far such a resolution is only achieved with a limited-area model whose results are impacted by zonal and meridional boundaries. Here, we present the setup of a latitude-belt domain that reduces disturbances originating from the western and eastern boundaries and therefore allows for studying the impact of model resolution and physical parameterization. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land–surface model was operated during July and August 2013 at two different horizontal resolutions, namely 0.03 (HIRES) and 0.12° (LOWRES). Both simulations were forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis data at the northern and southern domain boundaries, and the high-resolution Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data at the sea surface.The simulations are compared to the operational ECMWF analysis for the representation of large-scale features. To analyze the simulated precipitation, the operational ECMWF forecast, the CPC MORPHing (CMORPH), and the ENSEMBLES gridded observation precipitation data set (E-OBS) were used as references.Analyzing pressure, geopotential height, wind, and temperature fields as well as precipitation revealed (1) a benefit from the higher resolution concerning the reduction of monthly biases, root mean square error, and an improved Pearson skill score, and (2) deficiencies in the physical parameterizations leading to notable biases in distinct regions like the polar Atlantic for the LOWRES simulation, the North Pacific, and Inner Mongolia for both resolutions.In summary, the application of a latitude belt on a convection-permitting resolution shows promising results that are beneficial for future seasonal forecasting.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Simon Munier ◽  
Delphine Jennifer Leroux ◽  
Hélène Dewaele ◽  
David Fairbairn ◽  
...  

Abstract. In this study, a global Land Data Assimilation system (LDAS-Monde) is tested over Europe and the Mediterranean basin to increase monitoring accuracy for land surface variables. LDAS-Monde is able to ingest information from satellite-derived surface Soil Moisture (SM) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) observations to constrain the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model (LSM) coupled with the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) version of the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-CTRIP) continental hydrological system. It makes use of the CO2-responsive version of ISBA which models leaf-scale physiological processes and plant growth. Transfer of water and heat in the soil rely on a multilayer diffusion scheme. Surface SM and LAI observations are assimilated using a simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF), which uses finite differences from perturbed simulations to generate flow-dependence between the observations and the model control variables. The latter include LAI and seven layers of soil (from 1 cm to 100 cm depth). A sensitivity test of the Jacobians over 2000–2012 exhibits effects related to both depth and season. It also suggests that observations of both LAI and surface SM have an impact on the different control variables. From the assimilation of surface SM, the LDAS is more effective in modifying soil-moisture from the top layers of soil as model sensitivity to surface SM decreases with depth and has almost no impact from 60 cm downwards. From the assimilation of LAI, a strong impact on LAI itself is found. The LAI assimilation impact is more pronounced in SM layers that contain the highest fraction of roots (from 10 cm to 60 cm). The assimilation is more efficient in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. Assimilation impact shows that the LDAS works well constraining the model to the observations and that stronger corrections are applied to LAI than to SM. The assimilation impact's evaluation is successfully carried out using (i) agricultural statistics over France, (ii) river discharge observations, (iii) satellite-derived estimates of land evapotranspiration from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) project and (iv) spatially gridded observations based estimates of up-scaled gross primary production and evapotranspiration from the FLUXNET network. Comparisons with those four datasets highlight neutral to highly positive improvement.


2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-167
Author(s):  
William Rudisill ◽  
Alejandro Flores ◽  
James McNamara

AbstractSnow’s thermal and radiative properties strongly impact the land surface energy balance and thus the atmosphere above it. Land surface snow information is poorly known in mountainous regions. Few studies have examined the impact of initial land surface snow conditions in high-resolution, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models during the midlatitude cool season. The extent to which land surface snow influences atmospheric energy transport and subsequent surface meteorological states is tested using a high-resolution (1 km) configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, for both calm conditions and weather characteristic of a warm late March atmospheric river. A set of synthetic but realistic snow states are used as initial conditions for the model runs and the resulting differences are compared. We find that the presence (absence) of snow decreases (increases) 2-m air temperatures by as much as 4 K during both periods, and that the atmosphere responds to snow perturbations through advection of moist static energy from neighboring regions. Snow mass and snow-covered area are both important variables that influence 2-m air temperature. Finally, the meteorological states produced from the WRF experiments are used to force an offline hydrologic model, demonstrating that snowmelt rates can increase/decrease by factor of 2 depending on the initial snow conditions used in the parent weather model. We propose that more realistic representations of land surface snow properties in mesoscale models may be a source of hydrometeorological predictability


Author(s):  
Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez ◽  
Patricia de Rosnay ◽  
Clement Albergel ◽  
Philippe Richaume ◽  
Filipe Aires ◽  
...  

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.


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