scholarly journals L-VTP: Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction Based on Multi-Source Data Analysis

Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (20) ◽  
pp. 4365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Liu ◽  
Shuai Guo ◽  
Yuan Feng ◽  
Feng Hong ◽  
Haiguang Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Transition ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Delay Tolerant Network ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Privacy Issues

With the rapid development of marine IoT (Internet of Things), ocean MDTN (Mobile Delay Tolerant Network) has become a research hot spot. Long-term trajectory prediction is a key issue in MDTN. There are no long-term fine-grained trajectory prediction methods proposed for ocean vessels because a vessel’s mobility pattern lacks map topology support and can be easily influenced by the fish moratorium, sunshine duration, etc. A traditional on-land trajectory prediction algorithm cannot be directly utilized in this field because trajectory characteristics of ocean vessels are far different from that on land. To address the problem above, we propose a novel long-term trajectory prediction algorithm for ocean vessels, called L-VTP, by utilizing multiple sailing related parameters and K-order multivariate Markov Chain. L-VTP utilizes multiple sailing related parameters to build multiple state-transition matrices for trajectory prediction based on quantitative uncertainty analysis of trajectories. Trajectories’ sparsity of ocean vessels results in a critical state missing problem of a high-order state-transition matrix. L-VTP automatically traverses other matrices in a specific sequence in terms of quantitative uncertainty results to overcome this problem. Furthermore, the different mobility models of the same vessel during the day and the night are also exploited to improve the prediction accuracy. Privacy issues have been taken into consideration in this paper. A quantitative model considering Markov order, training metadata and privacy leak degree is proposed to help the participant make the trade-off based on their customized requirements. We have performed extensive experiments on two years of real-world trajectory data that include more than two thousand vessels. The experiment results demonstrate that L-VTP can realize fine-grained long-term trajectory prediction with the consideration of privacy issues. The average error of 4.5-hour fine-grained prediction is less than 500 m. In addition, the proposed method can be extended to 10-hour prediction with an average error of 2.16 km, which is also far less than the communication range of ocean vessel communication devices.

scholarly journals Grey theory–based BP-NN co-training for dense sequence long-term tendency prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuling Hong ◽  
Yingjie Yang ◽  
Qishan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
State Transition ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Training Model ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
State Transition Probability ◽  
Dense Sequence ◽  
Popularity Prediction

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to solve the problems existing in topic popularity prediction in online social networks and advance a fine-grained and long-term prediction model for lack of sufficient data.Design/methodology/approachBased on GM(1,1) and neural networks, a co-training model for topic tendency prediction is proposed in this paper. The interpolation based on GM(1,1) is employed to generate fine-grained prediction values of topic popularity time series and two neural network models are considered to achieve convergence by transmitting training parameters via their loss functions.FindingsThe experiment results indicate that the integrated model can effectively predict dense sequence with higher performance than other algorithms, such as NN and RBF_LSSVM. Furthermore, the Markov chain state transition probability matrix model is used to improve the prediction results.Practical implicationsFine-grained and long-term topic popularity prediction, further improvement could be made by predicting any interpolation in the time interval of popularity data points.Originality/valueThe paper succeeds in constructing a co-training model with GM(1,1) and neural networks. Markov chain state transition probability matrix is deployed for further improvement of popularity tendency prediction.

scholarly journals Trajectory prediction based on long short-term memory network and Kalman filter using hurricanes as an example

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 1005-1023
Author(s):  
Wanting Qin ◽  
Jun Tang ◽  
Cong Lu ◽  
Songyang Lao
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Moving Objects ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

AbstractTrajectory data can objectively reflect the moving law of moving objects. Therefore, trajectory prediction has high application value. Hurricanes often cause incalculable losses of life and property, trajectory prediction can be an effective means to mitigate damage caused by hurricanes. With the popularization and wide application of artificial intelligence technology, from the perspective of machine learning, this paper trains a trajectory prediction model through historical trajectory data based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) network. An improved LSTM (ILSTM) trajectory prediction algorithm that improves the prediction of the simple LSTM is proposed, and the Kalman filter is used to filter the prediction results of the improved LSTM algorithm, which is called LSTM-KF. Through simulation experiments of Atlantic hurricane data from 1851 to 2016, compared to other LSTM and ILSTM algorithms, it is found that the LSTM-KF trajectory prediction algorithm has the lowest prediction error and the best prediction effect.

scholarly journals TPR-DTVN: A Routing Algorithm in Delay Tolerant Vessel Network Based on Long-Term Trajectory Prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Chao Liu ◽  
Yingbin Li ◽  
Ruobing Jiang ◽  
Yong Du ◽  
Qian Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Academic Community ◽  
Routing Algorithms ◽  
Coarse Grained ◽  
Delivery Ratio ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Delay Tolerant

An efficient and low-cost communication system has great significance in maritime communication, but it faces enormous challenges because of high communication costs, incomplete communication infrastructure, and inefficient routing algorithms. Delay Tolerant Vessel Networks (DTVNs), which can create low-cost communication opportunities among vessels, have recently attracted considerable attention in the academic community. Most existing maritime ad hoc routing algorithms focus on predicting vessels’ future contacts by mining coarse-grained social relations or spatial distribution, which has led to poor performance. In this paper, we analyze 3-year trajectory data of 5123 fishery vessels in the China East Sea. Using entropy theory, we observe that the trajectory of the vessel has strongly spatial-temporal distribution regularity, especially when previous states were given. To predict accurate future trajectories, we develop a long-term accurate trajectory prediction model by improving the Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model. Based on predicted trajectories and the confident degree of each prediction step, we propose a series of routing algorithms called TPR-DTVN to achieve efficient communication performance. Finally, we carry out simulation experiments with extensive real data. Compared with existing algorithms, the simulation results show that TPR-DTVN can achieve a higher delivery ratio with lower cost and transmission delay.

scholarly journals Domain randomization-enhanced deep learning models for bird detection

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Mao ◽  
Jun Kang Chow ◽  
Pin Siang Tan ◽  
Kuan-fu Liu ◽  
Jimmy Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Continuous Monitoring ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Bird Detection ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractAutomatic bird detection in ornithological analyses is limited by the accuracy of existing models, due to the lack of training data and the difficulties in extracting the fine-grained features required to distinguish bird species. Here we apply the domain randomization strategy to enhance the accuracy of the deep learning models in bird detection. Trained with virtual birds of sufficient variations in different environments, the model tends to focus on the fine-grained features of birds and achieves higher accuracies. Based on the 100 terabytes of 2-month continuous monitoring data of egrets, our results cover the findings using conventional manual observations, e.g., vertical stratification of egrets according to body size, and also open up opportunities of long-term bird surveys requiring intensive monitoring that is impractical using conventional methods, e.g., the weather influences on egrets, and the relationship of the migration schedules between the great egrets and little egrets.

A prediction model of vessel trajectory based on generative adversarial network

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Senjie Wang ◽  
Zhengwei He
Keyword(s):  
Safety Management ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Generative Adversarial Network ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Adversarial Network ◽  
Historical Trajectory ◽  
Vessel Motion

Abstract Trajectory prediction is an important support for analysing the vessel motion behaviour, judging the vessel traffic risk and collision avoidance route planning of intelligent ships. To improve the accuracy of trajectory prediction in complex situations, a Generative Adversarial Network with Attention Module and Interaction Module (GAN-AI) is proposed to predict the trajectories of multiple vessels. Firstly, GAN-AI can infer all vessels’ future trajectories simultaneously when in the same local area. Secondly, GAN-AI is based on adversarial architecture and trained by competition for better convergence. Thirdly, an interactive module is designed to extract the group motion features of the multiple vessels, to achieve better performance at the ship encounter situations. GAN-AI has been tested on the historical trajectory data of Zhoushan port in China; the experimental results show that the GAN-AI model improves the prediction accuracy by 20%, 24% and 72% compared with sequence to sequence (seq2seq), plain GAN, and the Kalman model. It is of great significance to improve the safety management level of the vessel traffic service system and judge the degree of ship traffic risk.

scholarly journals Non-Local and Multi-Scale Mechanisms for Image Inpainting

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 3281
Author(s):  
Xu He ◽  
Yong Yin
Keyword(s):  
Markov Random Fields ◽  
Receptive Fields ◽  
Image Inpainting ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Visual Appearance ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Non Local ◽  
Relationship Of

Recently, deep learning-based techniques have shown great power in image inpainting especially dealing with squared holes. However, they fail to generate plausible results inside the missing regions for irregular and large holes as there is a lack of understanding between missing regions and existing counterparts. To overcome this limitation, we combine two non-local mechanisms including a contextual attention module (CAM) and an implicit diversified Markov random fields (ID-MRF) loss with a multi-scale architecture which uses several dense fusion blocks (DFB) based on the dense combination of dilated convolution to guide the generative network to restore discontinuous and continuous large masked areas. To prevent color discrepancies and grid-like artifacts, we apply the ID-MRF loss to improve the visual appearance by comparing similarities of long-distance feature patches. To further capture the long-term relationship of different regions in large missing regions, we introduce the CAM. Although CAM has the ability to create plausible results via reconstructing refined features, it depends on initial predicted results. Hence, we employ the DFB to obtain larger and more effective receptive fields, which benefits to predict more precise and fine-grained information for CAM. Extensive experiments on two widely-used datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches both in quantity and quality.

scholarly journals Time-Based Corporate-Social-Responsibility Evaluation Model Taking Chinese Listed Forestry Companies as an Example

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7971
Author(s):  
Xinfei Li ◽  
Baodong Cheng ◽  
Heng Xu
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Static State ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Normative Constraints ◽  
Corporate Social

With the rapid development of the economy, corporate social responsibility (CSR) is receiving increasing attention from companies themselves, but also increasing attention from society as a whole. How to reasonably evaluate the performance of CSR is a current research hotspot. Existing corporate-social-responsibility evaluation methods mostly focus on the static evaluation of enterprises in the industry, and do not take the time factor into account, which cannot reflect the performance of long-term CSR. On this basis, this article proposes a time-based entropy method that can evaluate long-term changes in CSR. Studies have shown that the completion of CSR in a static state does not necessarily reflect the dynamic and increasing trend of CSR in the long term. Therefore, the assessment of CSR should consider both the static and dynamic aspects of a company. In addition, the research provides the focus of different types of forestry enterprises in fulfilling CSR in the long term, and provides a clearer information path for the standard identification and normative constraints of different types of forestry enterprises CSR.

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