scholarly journals Envisioning Present and Future Land-Use Change under Varying Ecological Regimes and Their Influence on Landscape Stability

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4654
Author(s):  
Marcela Prokopová ◽  
Luca Salvati ◽  
Gianluca Egidi ◽  
Ondřej Cudlín ◽  
Renata Včeláková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Landscape Composition ◽  
Land Use Impacts ◽  
Ecological Stability ◽  
Anthropogenic Landscapes ◽  
Ecological Disturbance ◽  
The Impact

Climate change plays an important role in shaping ecological stability of landscape systems. Increasing weather fluctuations such as droughts threaten the ecological stability of natural and anthropogenic landscapes. Uncertainty exists regarding the validity of traditional landscape assessment schemes under climate change. This commentary debates the main factors that threaten ecological stability, discussing basic approaches to interpret landscape functioning. To address this pivotal issue, the intimate linkage between ecological stability and landscape diversity is explored, considering different approaches to landscape stability assessment. The impact of land-use changes on landscape stability is finally discussed. Assessment methodologies and indicators are reviewed and grouped into homogeneous classes based on a specific nomenclature of stability aspects which include landscape composition, fragmentation and connectivity, thermodynamic and functional issues, biodiversity, soil degradation, and ecological disturbance. By considering land-use change as one of the most important factors underlying climate change, individual components of landscape stability are finally delineated and commented upon. In this regard, specific trajectories of land-use change (including agricultural intensification, land abandonment, and urbanization) are investigated for their effects on ecological stability. A better understanding of land-use impacts on landscape stability is crucial for a better knowledge of processes leading to land degradation.

The impact of land use change, climate change and reservoir construction on ecosystem services in a Mediterranean catchment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joris Eekhout ◽  
Carolina Boix-Fayos ◽  
Pedro Pérez-Cutillas ◽  
Joris de Vente
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Sediment Concentration ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Reservoir Construction ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Mediterranean region has been identified as one of the most affected global hot-spots for climate change. Recent climate change in the Mediterranean can be characterized by faster increasing temperatures than the global mean and significant decreases in annual precipitation. Besides, important land cover changes have occurred, such as reforestation, agricultural intensification, urban expansion and the construction of many reservoirs, mainly with the purpose to store water for irrigation. Here we study the impacts of these changes on several ecosystem services in the Segura River catchment, a typical large Mediterranean catchment where many of the before mentioned changes have occurred in the last half century. We applied a hydrological model, coupled with a soil erosion and sediment transport model, to study the impact of climate and land cover change and reservoir construction on ecosystem services for the period 1971-2010. Eight ecosystem services indicators were defined, which include runoff, plant water stress, hillslope erosion, reservoir sediment yield, sediment concentration, reservoir storage, flood discharge and low flow. To assess larger land use changes, we also applied the model for an extended period (1952-2018) to the Taibilla subcatchment, a typical Mediterranean mountainous subcatchment, which plays an important role in the provision of water within the Segura River catchment. As main results we observed that climate change in the evaluated period is characterized by a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature. Detected land use change over the past 50 years is typical for many Mediterranean catchments. Natural vegetation in the headwaters increased due to agricultural land abandonment. Agriculture expanded in the central part of the catchment, which most likely is related to the construction of reservoirs in the same area. The downstream part of the catchment is characterized by urban expansion. While land use changed in more than 30% of the catchment, most impact on ecosystem services can be attributed to climate change and reservoir construction. All these changes have had positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services. The positive impacts include a decrease in hillslope erosion, sediment yield, sediment concentration and flood discharge (-21%, -18%, -82% and -41%, respectively). The negative impacts include an increase in plant water stress (+5%) and a decrease in reservoir storage (-5%). The decrease in low flow caused by land use change was counteracted by an increase in low flow due to reservoir construction. The results of our study highlight how relatively small climate and land use changes compared to the changes foreseen for the coming decades, have had an important impact on ecosystem services over the past 50 years.</p>

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Floods Disaster on Soil Erosion Risk Based on the RUSLE-GloSEM Approach in Western Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Akbari ◽  
Ehsan Neamatollahi ◽  
Hadi Memarian ◽  
Mohammad Alizadeh Noughani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Global Soil ◽  
Major Floods ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Floods cause great damage to ecosystems and are among the main agents of soil erosion. Given the importance of soils for the functioning of ecosystems and development and improvement of bio-economic conditions, the risk and rate of soil erosion was assessed using the RUSLE model in Iran’s Lorestan province before and after a period of major floods in late 2018 and early 2019. Furthermore, soil erosion was calculated for current and future conditions based on the Global Soil Erosion Modeling Database (GloSEM). The results showed that agricultural development and land use change are the main causes of land degradation in the southern and central parts of the study area. The impact of floods was also significant since our evaluations showed that soil erosion increased from 4.12 t ha-1 yr-1 before the floods to 10.93 t ha-1 yr-1 afterwards. Field surveying using 64 ground control points determined that erodibility varies from 0.17 to 0.49% in the study area. Orchards, farms, rangelands and forests with moderate or low vegetation cover were the most vulnerable land uses to soil erosion. The GloSEM modeling results revealed that climate change is the main cause of change in the rate of soil erosion. Combined land use change-climate change simulation showed that soil erosion will increase considerably in the future under SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. In the study area, both natural factors, i.e. climate change and human factors such as agricultural development, population growth, and overgrazing are the main drivers of soil erosion.

Application of WetSpa model for assessing land use impacts on floods in the Margecany–Hornad watershed, Slovakia

2006 ◽  
Vol 53 (10) ◽  
pp. 37-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bahremand ◽  
F. De Smedt ◽  
J. Corluy ◽  
Y.B. Liu ◽  
J. Poórová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Land Use Impacts ◽  
M Cell ◽  
Time To Peak ◽  
Wetspa Model ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Good Agreement

The spatially distributed hydrologic model WetSpa combines elevation, soil and land use data within GIS, to predict flood hydrographs and spatial distribution of hydrologic characteristics in a watershed. The model is applied to the Margecany–Hornad river basin (1,131 km2) in Slovakia. Daily hydrometeorological data from 1991–2000, including precipitation data from nine stations, temperature data from four stations and evaporation data measured at one station are used as input to the model. Three base maps, i.e. DEM, land use and soil type are prepared in GIS form, using 100 × 100 m cell size. Results of the simulations show good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs. The model predicts the daily/hourly hydrographs with 75–80% accuracy according to the Nash–Sutcliff criteria. For assessing the impact of land use changes on floods, the calibrated model is applied for a reforestation scenario, which considers a 50% increase of forest areas. The model results show that the reforestation scenario decreases the peak discharge by 12%. Investigation of peak discharges from the whole simulation period, shows that the scenario results are reduced by 18% on average, while for small discharges the reduction is even about 34%. The time to peak of the simulated hydrograph of the reforestation scenario is 20 hours longer than for the present land use.

Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

2018 ◽  
Vol 135 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1031-1044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Gries ◽  
Margarete Redlin ◽  
Juliette Espinosa Ugarte
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Link between Land Use and Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Johanna Sörensen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Property Owners ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
The Impact

The densification of urban areas has raised concerns over increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might increase under the impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves the conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas, causing lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intensity rainfall exceeds the capacity of an urban drainage system, the runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (i.e., 20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk as it relates to land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from drainage systems; these data serve as a proxy of flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis was placed on examining how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relate to flood risk. The relationships are defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies whereby land use change affects flood risk.

scholarly journals Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Impact

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.

scholarly journals Quantification of climate change and land cover/use transition impacts on runoff variations in the upper Hailar Basin, NE China

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 976-993
Author(s):  
Yuhui Yan ◽  
Baolin Xue ◽  
Yinglan A ◽  
Wenchao Sun ◽  
Hanwen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Ne China ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Hailar Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantification of runoff change is vital for water resources management, especially in arid or semiarid areas. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Hailar Basin (NE China) and to analyze quantitatively the impacts of climate change and land-use change on runoff by setting different scenarios. Two periods, i.e., the reference period (before 1988) and the interference period (after 1988), were identified based on long-term runoff datasets. In comparison with the reference period, the contribution rates of both climate change and land-use change to runoff change in the Hailar Basin during the interference period were 83.58% and 16.42%, respectively. The simulation analysis of climate change scenarios with differential precipitation and temperature changes suggested that runoff changes are correlated positively with precipitation change and that the impact of precipitation change on runoff is stronger than that of temperature. Under different economic development scenarios adopted, land use was predicted to have a considerable impact on runoff. The expansion of forests within the basin might induce decreased runoff owing to enhanced evapotranspiration.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE LAND USE IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ECONOMIC APPROACH

2011 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 27-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID HAIM ◽  
RALPH J. ALIG ◽  
ANDREW J. PLANTINGA ◽  
BRENT SOHNGEN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Cropland Area ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Net Returns

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and projections from integrated assessment models of agricultural prices and agricultural and forestry yields. For both scenarios, we project large increases in urban land by the middle of the century, while the largest declines are in cropland area. Significant differences among regions in the projected patterns of land-use change are evident, including an expansion of forests in the Mountain and Plains regions with declines elsewhere. Comparisons to projections with no climate change effects on prices and yields reveal relatively small differences. Thus, our findings suggest that future land-use patterns in the U.S. will be shaped largely by urbanization, with climate change having a relatively small influence.

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