scholarly journals Evolution of the Individual Attitude in the Risk Decision of Waste Incinerator Construction: Cellular Automaton Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 368
Author(s):  
Jinbu Zhao ◽  
Yongyou Nie ◽  
Kui Liu ◽  
Jizhi Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Cellular Automaton ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Cellular Automaton Model ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Waste Incinerator ◽  
Decision Strategy ◽  
Sheep Flock ◽  
The Individual

In current work, the phenomenon of NIMBY (not in my back yard) for a municipal solid waste incinerator was recognized through an investigation for the evolution of individual risk attitude to group risk attitude (ItGRA). The cellular automaton model was employed to evaluate the risk attitude status with different frequencies of social interaction between residents. In the simulation case, the risk attitude of residents in the pseudo-rational state and non-pseudo-rational state was evaluated, which indicates the sheep-flock effect on the exaggeration of public NIMBY attitude. To the incinerator, the individual risk attitude evolved to supportive group risk attitude at a social interaction frequency 100 times higher than that in family or local neighborhoods, when the initial number of residents in opposition and support was equal. This was supported by the result of the model in the evaluation of resident risk attitude around the incinerator in Shanghai. On the contrary, for those in a non-pseudo-rational state, the ultimate group risk attitude depends on the probability that the residents have a supportive or opposing risk attitude as the concept of individuals was difficult to change. Accordingly, the decision strategy of incinerator construction should consider the influence of the sheep-flock effect, which can increase the attitude of residents in support and lead to the evolution of a group risk attitude to support attitude. Therefore, this study provides insight into the evolution of public attitude to NIMBY attitude and a promising evaluation method to quantify and guide the individual and group risk attitudes.

scholarly journals Credit Risk Contagion Based on Asymmetric Information Association

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Jiang ◽  
Hong Fan ◽  
Min Xia
Keyword(s):  
Asymmetric Information ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Complex Network Theory ◽  
Structure Information ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Credit Risk Contagion ◽  
Information Association

The study of the contagion law of credit risk is very important for financial market supervision. The existing credit risk contagion models based on complex network theory assume that the information between individuals in the network is symmetrical and analyze the proportion of the individuals infected by the credit risk from a macro perspective. However, how individuals are infected from a microscopic perspective is not clear, besides the level of the infection of the individuals is characterized by only two states: completely infected or not infected, which is not realistic. In this paper, a credit risk contagion model based on asymmetric information association is proposed. The model can effectively describe the correlation among individuals with credit risk. The model can analyze how the risk individuals are infected in the network and can effectively reflect the risk contagion degree of the individual. This paper further analyzes the influence of network structure, information association, individual risk attitude, financial market supervision intensity, and individual risk resisting ability on individual risk contagion. The correctness of the model is verified by theoretical deduction and numerical simulation.

Irrigation Advisory Services: Farmers preferences and willingness to pay for innovation

2021 ◽  
pp. 003072702110028
Author(s):  
Filiberto Altobelli ◽  
Anna Dalla Marta ◽  
Marius Heinen ◽  
Claire Jacobs ◽  
Elisa Giampietri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Scheme Design ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Advisory Services ◽  
Irrigation Water Use ◽  
Specific Scheme ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
The Individual

Irrigation Advisory Services (IAS) are powerful management instruments aiming to achieve the best efficiency in irrigation water use. So far the literature on farmers’ preferences for a specific scheme design of IAS’ characteristics and the related willingness to pay (WTP) is scant. This study provides evidence on farmers’ preference towards six attributes related to the IAS configuration by using a hypothetical choice experiment. Data were collected from an original survey among 108 farmers from Spain, The Netherlands, Italy, Poland and South Africa. Moreover, we investigated the interplay between these preferences and the individual risk attitude (elicited through a lottery task) as a novel contribution. On average, the results suggest a clear farmers’ preference, especially for receiving weather forecasts from the service and for the feature related to water data recording; as the opposite, on average, crop water requirement seems irrelevant. Finally, we found that farmers’ WTP for the different IAS services varies across countries and, in some cases, also according to the individual risk attitude.

scholarly journals Optimising Pedestrian Flow Around Large Stadiums

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuming Dong ◽  
Xiaolu Jia ◽  
Daichi Yanagisawa ◽  
Katsuhiro Nishinari
Keyword(s):  
Differential Evolution ◽  
Cellular Automaton ◽  
Differential Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Cellular Automaton Model ◽  
Pedestrian Flow ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Specific Strategy ◽  
Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
The Individual

This study proposes a method that combines the cellular automaton model and the differential evolution algorithm for optimising pedestrian flow around large stadiums. A miniature version of a large stadium and its surrounding areas is constructed via the cellular automaton model. Special mechanisms are applied to influence the behaviour of an agent that leaves from a certain stadium gate. The agent may be attracted to a nearby business facility and/or guided to uncongested areas. The differential evolution algorithm is then used to determine the optimal probabilities of the influencing agents for each stadium gate. The main goal is to reduce the evacuation time, and other goals such as reducing the costs for the influencing agents’ behaviours and the individual evacuation time are also considered. We found that, although they worked differently in different scenarios, the attraction and guidance of agents significantly reduced the evacuation time. The optimal evacuation time was achieved with moderate attraction to the business facilities and strong guidance to the detouring route. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can provide a goal-dependent, exit-specific strategy that is otherwise hard to acquire for optimising pedestrian flow.

scholarly journals What Are Investors Afraid of? Finding the Big Bad Wolf

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Barbara Alemanni ◽  
Pierpaolo Uberti
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Revealed Preferences ◽  
Relevant Variable ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Individual Choices

The aim of financial institutions and regulators is to find an effective way to measure the risk profile of different segments of investors. Both economists and psychologists developed several methodologies to elicit and assess individual risk attitude, but these are not perfect and show several drawbacks when used in practice. Thanks to a unique database of around 15,000 investors, this paper combines survey-based evidence with revealed preferences based upon observed asset allocation. This paper confirms some results known in the literature like the gender and age differences in risk-taking. Moreover, the behavioral clustering approach used for the analysis is useful in an inferential framework. The segments built starting from the questionnaire permit to “forecast” the individual risk attitude that is described by the individual choices in terms of asset allocation. Loss aversion per se is a relevant variable in explaining financial risk-taking.

Combining Values

2002 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-4, 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Brigham
Keyword(s):  
Lower Extremity ◽  
Upper Extremity ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Proximal Phalanx ◽  
Common Error ◽  
The Third ◽  
Whole Person ◽  
Impairment Ratings ◽  
Upper Extremity Impairment ◽  
The Individual

Abstract To account for the effects of multiple impairments, evaluating physicians must provide a summary value that combines multiple impairments so the whole person impairment is equal to or less than the sum of all the individual impairment values. A common error is to add values that should be combined and typically results in an inflated rating. The Combined Values Chart in the AMA Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment, Fifth Edition, includes instructions that guide physicians about combining impairment ratings. For example, impairment values within a region generally are combined and converted to a whole person permanent impairment before combination with the results from other regions (exceptions include certain impairments of the spine and extremities). When they combine three or more values, physicians should select and combine the two lowest values; this value is combined with the third value to yield the total value. Upper extremity impairment ratings are combined based on the principle that a second and each succeeding impairment applies not to the whole unit (eg, whole finger) but only to the part that remains (eg, proximal phalanx). Physicians who combine lower extremity impairments usually use only one evaluation method, but, if more than one method is used, the physician should use the Combined Values Chart.

The importance and significance of gene polymorphisms in preeclampsia

2016 ◽  
pp. 45-49
Author(s):  
P.N. Veropotvelyan ◽  
◽  
I.S. Tsehmistrenko ◽  
N.P. Veropotvelyan ◽  
N.S. Rusak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oxidative Stress ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Early Diagnosis ◽  
Gene Polymorphisms ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Extended Study ◽  
Stress Genes ◽  
Detoxification System ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

Was to conduct a systematic review of data on the relationship between polymorphisms genes of detoxification system and development of preeclampsia (РЕ). Рresents the main genes of detoxification system (GSTPI, GSTМI, GSTТI, GРХI, ЕРНХI, SOD-2, SOD-3, CYPIAL, MTHЕR, MTR) and their functions. Of interest is the possibility of calculating the individual risk of PE based on the results about the presence of a combination of different polymorphisms in the genotype of the female. Question about early diagnosis of РЕ remains controversial and not fully understood. It is necessary to conduct further in-depth, extended study of this problem. Key words: preeclampsia, oxidative stress, genes of the detoxification system.

Penggunaan Social Stories untuk Menurunkan Perilaku Nonadaptif Saat Berada dalam Kendaraan Bagi Autisme Dewasa

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Markus Nanang Irawan ◽  
Sri Widyawati
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Behavior Problems ◽  
Adaptive Behavior ◽  
Behavioral Problems ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Social Stories ◽  
Steering Wheel ◽  
Graph Analysis ◽  
Adult Autism ◽  
The Individual

<pre><span>Individuals autism often have non-adaptive behavioral problems because of their barriers in communication and social interaction. The problem of non-adaptive behavior is often a nuisance to others because its appearance is not appropriate and not in accordance with the environment, age, and expectations of responsibility. One case of non-adaptive behavior that arises is the behavior while in a vehicle where the individual shows the behavior of singing loudly, knocking windows, pinching the driver, even holding the steering wheel. Based on these problems, this study aims to reduce non-adaptive behavior while in a vehicle. Participant is an adult autism. The research method is experiment by giving Social Stories to participants before riding the vehicle then recording to the possibility appearance of non adaptive behavior. The results of graph analysis showed a decrease in non adaptive behavior of adult autism adults while in a vehicle. This study became one of the important studies because it tries to understand the dynamics of behavior problems of individual autisme in adulthood.<strong></strong></span></pre><pre><span> </span></pre>

Differentiation of endemic areas by incidence rates of tick-borne infectious diseases as the basis for choosing prevention strategy and tactics

2019 ◽  
pp. 56-61
Author(s):  
N.V. Rudakov ◽  
N.A. Penyevskaya ◽  
D.A. Saveliev ◽  
S.A. Rudakova ◽  
C.V. Shtrek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Preventive Therapy ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Prevention Strategy ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Integral Assessment ◽  
Very High

Research objective. Differentiation of natural focal areas of Western Siberia by integral incidence rates of tick-borne infectious diseases for determination of the strategy and tactics of their comprehensive prevention. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis of official statistics for the period 2002-2018 for eight sub-federal units in the context of administrative territories was carried out. The criteria of differentiation were determined by means of three evaluation scales, including long-term mean rates of tick-borne encephalitis, tick-borne borreliosis, and Siberian tick-borne typhus. As a scale gradation tool, we used the number of sample elements between the confidence boundaries of the median. The integral assessment was carried out by the sum of points corresponding to the incidence rates for each of the analyzed infections. Results. The areas of low, medium, above average, high and very high risk of tick-borne infectious diseases were determined. Recommendations on the choice of prevention strategy and tactics were given. In areas of very high and high incidence rates, a combination of population-based and individual prevention strategies is preferable while in other areas a combination of high-risk and individual strategies is recommended. Discussion. Epidemiologic zoning should be the basis of a risk-based approach to determining optimal volumes and directions of preventive measures against natural focal infections. It is necessary to improve the means and methods of determining the individual risk of getting infected and developing tick-borne infectious diseases in case of bites, in view of mixed infection of vectors, as well as methods of post-exposure disease prevention (preventive therapy).

scholarly journals A New Medical Record Proposal to the Prognostic Risk Assessment for MRONJ in Oncologic Patients: “Sapienza Head and Neck Unit” Proposal

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1851
Author(s):  
Edoardo Brauner ◽  
Silvia Mezi ◽  
Alessandro Ciolfi ◽  
Chiara Ciolfi ◽  
Resi Pucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multidisciplinary Approach ◽  
Bone Cancer ◽  
Osteonecrosis Of The Jaw ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Medical Report ◽  
Oncologic Patients ◽  
Antiangiogenic Drugs ◽  
Dental Screening ◽  
The Individual

Medication-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (MRONJ) is an adverse event associated with antiresorptive and antiangiogenic drugs. The use of these drugs in the treatment of cancer patients with bone metastasis is necessary and standardized in the literature. A multidisciplinary approach for the patient’s management is strongly recommended. Therefore, it should be necessary to integrate the path of these subjects with a dedicated dental screening in order to first assess the individual risk of developing a MRONJ, and then to plan dental treatments and oral hygiene sessions, and finally to schedule a follow-up to intercept and treat early osteonecrosis. The aim of this manuscript is to propose a new simple medical report to evaluate patients affected by metastatic bone cancer in order to reduce the risk of developing MRONJ.

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