scholarly journals Exploring the Risk Posed by Animals with an Inconclusive Reaction to the Bovine Tuberculosis Skin Test in England and Wales

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Elizabeth May ◽  
Alison Prosser ◽  
Sara H. Downs ◽  
Lucy A. Brunton
Keyword(s):  
Bovine Tuberculosis ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Subsequent Test ◽  
Primary Test ◽  
Tuberculosis Skin Test ◽  
The Relationship

The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test is the primary test for ante-mortem diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in England and Wales. When an animal is first classified as an inconclusive reactor (IR) using this test, it is not subject to compulsory slaughter, but it must be isolated from the rest of the herd. To understand the risk posed by these animals, a case-control study was conducted to measure the association between IR status of animals and the odds of them becoming a reactor to the SICCT at a subsequent test. The study included all animals from herds in which only IR animals were found at the first whole herd test in 2012 and used data from subsequent tests up until the end of 2016. Separate mixed-effects logistic regression models were developed to examine the relationship between IR status and subsequent reactor status for each risk area of England and for Wales, adjusting for other explanatory variables. The odds of an animal becoming a subsequent reactor during the study period were greater for IR animals than for negative animals in the high-risk area (odds ratio (OR): 6.85 (5.98–7.86)) and edge area (OR: 8.79 (5.92–13.04)) of England and in Wales (OR: 6.87 (5.75–8.22)). In the low-risk area of England, the odds were 23 times greater, although the confidence interval around this estimate was larger due to the smaller sample size (11–48, p < 0.001). These findings support the need to explore differential controls for IR animals to reduce the spread of TB, and they highlight the importance of area-specific policies.

scholarly journals Effects of trading networks on the risk of bovine tuberculosis incidents on cattle farms in Great Britain

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 191806
Author(s):  
Helen R. Fielding ◽  
Trevelyan J. McKinley ◽  
Richard J. Delahay ◽  
Matthew J. Silk ◽  
Robbie A. McDonald
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Bovine Tuberculosis ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Herd Size ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Trading Patterns ◽  
Additional Approach ◽  
Trading Networks ◽  
Cattle Farms

Trading animals between farms and via markets can provide a conduit for spread of infections. By studying trading networks, we might better understand the dynamics of livestock diseases. We constructed ingoing contact chains of cattle farms in Great Britain that were linked by trading, to elucidate potential pathways for the transmission of infection and to evaluate their effect on the risk of a farm experiencing a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) incident. Our findings are consistent with variation in bTB risk associated with region, herd size, disease risk area and history of previous bTB incidents on the root farm and nearby farms. However, we also identified effects of both direct and indirect trading patterns, such that connections to more farms in the England High-Risk Area up to three movements away from the root farm increased the odds of a bTB incident, while connections with more farms in the England Low-Risk Area up to eight movements away decreased the odds. Relative to other risk factors for bTB, trading behaviours are arguably more amenable to change, and consideration of risks associated with indirect trading, as well direct trading, might therefore offer an additional approach to bTB control in Great Britain.

scholarly journals The determinants of travel mode choice: the case of Łódź, Poland

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (44) ◽  
pp. 93-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Szymon Wójcik
Keyword(s):  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Travel Behaviour ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Life Study ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Private Transportation ◽  
Potential Factors ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The City

AbstractIn this study, potential factors influencing the decisions made by citizens of the city of Łódź, Poland, regarding the choice of transportation mode used in their daily travel activities were examined. In addition to a brief literature review, an empirical study was performed. Data from a previous quality-of-life study were used to enhance the scope of explanatory variables in a regression model. In order to identify the determinants of travel behaviour, binary logistic regression models were used. The results show that socio-demographic characteristics of respondents and household access to a car most influenced transport mode choices. Also, the relationship between geographic distances and subjective opinions regarding public transport were found to be statistically significant. The determinants for choosing either public or private transportation varied.

scholarly journals Further description of bovine tuberculosis trends in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, 2003–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 183 (23) ◽  
pp. 717-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon J More ◽  
Erik Houtsma ◽  
Liam Doyle ◽  
Guy McGrath ◽  
Tracy A Clegg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bovine Tuberculosis ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Republic Of Ireland ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Low Prevalence

Extending on earlier work, trends in bovine tuberculosis (bTB) from 2003 to 2015 are described for the countries of the UK and the Republic of Ireland using standardised definitions and measures. Based on measures of animal and herd incidence, there remains a stable situation of extremely low prevalence in Scotland and the Low Risk Area of England, and a higher but ongoing reduction in prevalence in the Republic of Ireland. In Northern Ireland, there has been a rising bTB trend during 2010–2015, although not to levels experienced during 2002–2004. In the High Risk Area and Edge Area of England during 2010–2015, the rising bTB trends have continued but with some recent evidence of stabilisation. In Wales, prevalence has fallen subsequent to a peak in 2008. The paper considers country-level differences in the light of key policy changes, which are presented in detail. This work is unique, and will assist policymakers when critically evaluating policy options for effective control and eradication. Ongoing updates of this analysis would be useful, providing an evidence base for country-level comparison of bTB trends into the future. The use of multivariable analytical methods should be considered, but will rely on substantial sharing of raw data across the five countries.

Periodic monitoring of vampire bats and rabies: a new framework for animal restoration projects in the Neotropics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Gonçalves ◽  
Daniel G. Streicker ◽  
Mauro Galetti
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Food Web Structure ◽  
Land Bridge ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Restoration Project ◽  
Vampire Bats

Nowadays, restoration project might lead to increased public engagement and enthusiasm for biodiversity and is receiving increased media attention in major newspapers, TED talks and the scientific literature. However, empirical research on restoration project is rare, fragmented, and geographically biased and long-term studies that monitor indirect and unexpected effects are needed to support future management decisions especially in the Neotropical area. Changes in animal population dynamics and community composition following species (re)introduction may have unanticipated consequences for a variety of downstream ecosystem processes, including food web structure, predator-prey systems and infectious disease transmission. Recently, an unprecedented study in Brazil showed changes in vampire bat feeding following a rewilding project and further transformed the land-bridge island into a high-risk area for rabies transmission. Due the lessons learned from ongoing project, we present a novel approach on how to anticipate, monitor, and mitigate the vampire bats and rabies in rewilding projects. We pinpoint a series of precautions and the need for long-term monitoring of vampire bats and rabies responses to rewilding projects and highlighted the importance of multidisciplinary teams of scientist and managers focusing on prevention educational program of rabies risk transmitted by bats. In addition, monitoring the relative abundance of vampire bats, considering reproductive control by sterilization and oral vaccines that autonomously transfer among bats would reduce the probability, size and duration of rabies outbreaks. The rewilding assessment framework presented here responds to calls to better integrate the science and practice of rewilding and also could be used for long-term studying of bat-transmitted pathogen in the Neotropical area as the region is considered a geographic hotspots of “missing bat zoonoses”.

Bridging the Gap between Political and Penal Legitimacy

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Henham
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Social Exclusion ◽  
Social Value ◽  
The Political ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Social Morality ◽  
Penal Policy ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Sentencing Policy ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter argues that the relationship between penal policy and the political economy provides important insights into the political and institutional reforms required to minimize harsh and discriminatory penal policies. However, the capacity of sentencing policy to engage with this social reality in a meaningful way necessitates a recasting of penal ideology. To realize this objective requires a profound understanding of sentencing’s social value and significance for citizens. The greatest challenge then lies in establishing coherent links between penal ideology and practice to encourage forms of sentencing that are sensitive to changes in social value. The chapter concludes by explaining how the present approach taken by the courts of England and Wales to the sentencing of women exacerbates social exclusion and reinforces existing divisions in social morality. It urges fundamental changes in ideology and practice so that policy reflects a socially valued rationale for the criminalization and punishment of women.

The Relationship between Mobility and COVID-19 in Germany: Modeling Case Occurrence using Apple's Mobility Trends Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark David Walker ◽  
Mihály Sulyok
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Online Data ◽  
German Government ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Community Mobility ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Potential Use

Abstract Background Restrictions on social interaction and movement were implemented by the German government in March 2020 to reduce the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Apple's “Mobility Trends” (AMT) data details levels of community mobility; it is a novel resource of potential use to epidemiologists. Objective The aim of the study is to use AMT data to examine the relationship between mobility and COVID-19 case occurrence for Germany. Is a change in mobility apparent following COVID-19 and the implementation of social restrictions? Is there a relationship between mobility and COVID-19 occurrence in Germany? Methods AMT data illustrates mobility levels throughout the epidemic, allowing the relationship between mobility and disease to be examined. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were established for Germany, with mobility categories, and date, as explanatory variables, and case numbers as response. Results Clear reductions in mobility occurred following the implementation of movement restrictions. There was a negative correlation between mobility and confirmed case numbers. GAM using all three categories of mobility data accounted for case occurrence as well and was favorable (AIC or Akaike Information Criterion: 2504) to models using categories separately (AIC with “driving,” 2511. “transit,” 2513. “walking,” 2508). Conclusion These results suggest an association between mobility and case occurrence. Further examination of the relationship between movement restrictions and COVID-19 transmission may be pertinent. The study shows how new sources of online data can be used to investigate problems in epidemiology.

74 Improving Handover Between Doctors and Nurses on An Elderly Care Ward

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. i12-i42
Author(s):  
K Suseeharan ◽  
T Vedutla
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Patient Care ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Elderly Care ◽  
Task Completion ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Care Ward ◽  
Doctors And Nurses

Abstract Background The Royal College of Physician guidelines (2011) identified handover as a “high risk step” in patient care, especially in recent times within the NHS where shift patterns lead to more disjointed care with a high reliance on effective handover by all staff members. Introduction At Cannock Chase hospital, Fairoak ward is an elderly care rehabilitation ward where there is a large multi-disciplinary team. While working on the ward as doctors we noticed that handover between the MDT was poor. Anecdotal evidence from both doctors and nurses felt that this was a high risk area in need of improvement. Aim to improve handover between doctors and nurses on this elderly care ward. Method To measure the quality of current handover practice we did a questionnaire. A total of 12 questionnaires were completed which showed that 92% of staff felt that handover on the ward was very poor and 50% preferred both written and verbal handover. We measured the number of tasks verbally handed over between doctors and nurses over 3 days. On average 65% of the tasks were completed. We then made the below interventions and re-audited to see if there was any improvement. Interventions over 3 week period: Results Questionnaire: Measuring task completion after interventions; Conclusion This project has made a positive change qualitatively and quantitatively to the ward handover practice. Staff satisfaction regarding handover has improved and the number of “handed over” tasks completed daily has significantly improved. The written handover sheet had poor utilisation by staff but in 4 months we are going to re-audit and trial the handover sheet again to further improve service delivery. We hope this improvement will have a positive impact on patient care on this elderly care ward.

785 Reported Restful Sleep Predicting Emotional Distress: Does Exercise (and its modalities) moderate?

SLEEP ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. A305-A306
Author(s):  
Jesse Moore ◽  
Ellita Williams ◽  
Collin Popp ◽  
Anthony Briggs ◽  
Judite Blanc ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Aerobic Exercise ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Strengthening Exercise ◽  
Waking Up ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Introduction Literature shows that exercise moderates the relationship between sleep and emotional distress (ED.) However, it is unclear whether different types of exercise, such as aerobic and strengthening, affect this relationship differently. We investigated the moderating role of two types of exercise (aerobic and strengthening) regarding the relationship between ED and sleep. Methods Our analysis was based on data from 2018 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), a nationally representative study in which 2,814 participants provided all data. Participants were asked 1) “how many days they woke up feeling rested over the past week”, 2) the Kessler 6 scale to determine ED (a score &gt;13 indicates ED), and 3) the average frequency of strengthening or aerobic exercise per week. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine if the reported days of waking up rested predicted level of ED. We then investigated whether strengthening or aerobic exercise differentially moderated this relationship. Covariates such as age and sex were adjusted in the logistic regression models. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine if subjective reporting of restful sleep predicted level of ED. We investigated whether strengthening exercise or aerobic exercise differentially moderated this relationship. Covariates such as age and sex were adjusted in the logistic regression models. Results On average, participants reported 4.41 restful nights of sleep (SD =2.41), 3.43 strengthening activities (SD = 3.19,) and 8.47 aerobic activities a week (SD=5.91.) We found a significant association between days over the past week reporting waking up feeling rested and ED outcome according to K6, Χ2(1) = -741, p= &lt;.001. The odds ratio signified a decrease of 52% in ED scores for each unit of restful sleep (OR = .48, (95% CI = .33, .65) p=&lt;.001.) In the logistic regression model with moderation, aerobic exercise had a significant moderation effect, Χ2(1) = .03, p=.04, but strengthening exercise did not. Conclusion We found that restful sleep predicted reduction in ED scores. Aerobic exercise moderated this relationship, while strengthening exercise did not. Further research should investigate the longitudinal effects of exercise type on the relationship between restful sleep and ED. Support (if any) NIH (K07AG052685, R01MD007716, K01HL135452, R01HL152453)

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