scholarly journals Effect of Climate Change on Soil Erosion in a Mountainous Mediterranean Catchment (Central Pindus, Greece)

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanos Stefanidis ◽  
Dimitrios Stathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Potential Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Mountainous Catchment ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The aim of this study was to assess soil erosion changes in the mountainous catchment of the Portaikos torrent (Central Greece) under climate change. To this end, precipitation and temperature data were derived from a high-resolution (25 × 25 km) RegCM3 regional climate model for the baseline period 1974–2000 and future period 2074–2100. Additionally, three GIS layers were generated regarding land cover, geology, and slopes in the study area, whereas erosion state was recognized after field observations. Subsequently, the erosion potential model (EPM) was applied to quantify the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on soil erosion. The results showed a decrease (−21.2%) in annual precipitation (mm) and increase (+3.6 °C) in mean annual temperature until the end of the 21st century, and the above changes are likely to lead to a small decrease (−4.9%) in soil erosion potential.

A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Peres ◽  
Alfonso Senatore ◽  
Paola Nanni ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere ◽  
Giuseppe Mendicino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used for assessing, at proper spatial resolutions, future impacts of climate change on hydrological events. In this study, we propose a statistical methodological framework to assess the quality of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs concerning their ability to simulate historic observed climate (temperature and precipitation). We specifically focus on the models’ performance in reproducing drought characteristics (duration, accumulated deficit, intensity, and return period) determined by the theory of runs at seasonal and annual timescales, by comparison with high-density and high-quality ground-based observational datasets. In particular, the proposed methodology is applied to the Sicily and Calabria regions (Southern Italy), where long historical precipitation and temperature series were recorded by the ground-based monitoring networks operated by the former Regional Hydrographic Offices. The density of the measurements is considerably greater than observational gridded datasets available at the European level, such as E-OBS or CRU-TS. Results show that among the models based on the combination of the HadGEM2 global circulation model (GCM) with the CLM-Community RCMs are the most skillful in reproducing precipitation and temperature variability as well as drought characteristics. Nevertheless, the ranking of the models may slightly change depending on the specific variable analysed, as well as the temporal and spatial scale of interest. From this point of view, the proposed methodology highlights the skills and weaknesses of the different configurations, aiding on the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing climate change impacts on drought processes and the underlying variables.</p>

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and land-use dynamics on water resources: The case of the Lobo River watershed: Central-Western Côte d'Ivoire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berenger Koffi ◽  
Zilé Alex Kouadio ◽  
Affoué Berthe Yao ◽  
Kouakou Hervé Kouassi ◽  
Martin Sanchez Angulo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Meeting growing water needs in a context of increasing scarcity of resources due to climate change and changes in land use is a major challenge for developing countries in the coming years. The watershed of the Lobo river in Nibéhibé does not escape this dilemma. The water retention of the Lobo River and its watershed play an important role in the subsistence of the inhabitants of the region. However, the watershed is currently subject to strong human pressures mainly associated with the constant increase in human population and intensification of agricultural activities. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Lobo River watershed at Nibéhibé in the central-western part of Côte d'Ivoire. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were established using the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre atmospheric model 4) and the flows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU with respect to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCA4 regional model predicts an increase of 1.27° C; 2.58° C in the horizon 2021-2040 and 2051-2070 in mean annual temperature. Rainfall would also experience a significant average annual decrease of about 6.51% and 11.15% over the period 2021-2040 and 2041-2070. As for the evolution of flows, the Cequeau model predicts a decrease in the runoff and infiltration of water on the horizon 2021-2040 and an increase in evapotranspiration over time according to the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the model predicts an increase in runoff at the expense of a decrease in REE and infiltration at the horizon 2040-2070 according to scenario RCP8.5. It appears from this study that surface flows and infiltrations, which constitute the water resources available to meet the water needs of the basin's populations, will be the most affected. The results obtained in this study are important and could contribute to guide decision making for sustainable water resource management.</p>

Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies

2010 ◽  
Vol 41 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 211-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yang ◽  
Johan Andréasson ◽  
L. Phil Graham ◽  
Jonas Olsson ◽  
Jörgen Rosberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

As climate change could have considerable influence on hydrology and corresponding water management, appropriate climate change inputs should be used for assessing future impacts. Although the performance of regional climate models (RCMs) has improved over time, systematic model biases still constrain the direct use of RCM output for hydrological impact studies. To address this, a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed that adjusts precipitation and temperature from RCMs to better reflect observations. Statistical properties, such as daily mean, standard deviation, distribution and frequency of precipitation days, were much improved for control periods compared to direct RCM output. DBS-adjusted precipitation and temperature from two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESA1B) transient climate projections were used as inputs to the HBV hydrological model for several river basins in Sweden for the period 1961–2100. Hydrological results using DBS were compared to results with the widely-used delta change (DC) approach for impact studies. The general signal of a warmer and wetter climate was obtained using both approaches, but use of DBS identified differences between the two projections that were not seen with DC. The DBS approach is thought to better preserve the future variability produced by the RCM, improving usability for climate change impact studies.

scholarly journals Statistical approaches for assessment of climate change impacts on low flows: temporal aspects

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Fangmann ◽  
Uwe Haberlandt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Lower Saxony

Abstract. The characteristics of low flow periods, especially regarding their low temporal dynamics, suggest that estimation of metrics related to these periods may be carried out using simplified statistical model approaches that base on a rudimentary input of aggregated local meteorological information. Compared to physically-based or even strongly conceptualized hydrological models, such approaches may have the advantage of being easily set up, applicable over large study areas in a fraction of the time, and easily transferrable between regions, given that predictions are made with the accuracy required for a given purpose. In this study, simplified statistical models based on multiple linear regressions for the use in regional climate change impact analysis are proposed. Study area is the German Federal State of Lower Saxony with 28 available gauges for analysis. A number of regression approaches are evaluated. An approach using principal components of local meteorological indices as input appeared to show the best performance. This model type was eventually applied to a climate model ensemble based on the RCP8.5 scenario. Analyses in the baseline period revealed that some of the meteorological indices needed for model input could not be fully reproduced by the climate models. The predictions for the future show an overall increase in the lowest average 7-day flow (NM7Q), projected by the majority of ensemble members and for the majority of stations.

scholarly journals Multivariate stochastic downscaling models for generating precipitation and temperature scenarios of climate change based on atmospheric circulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-272
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Mountainous Catchment ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The spatial resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is too coarse to represent regional climate changes at the scales required for environmental impact assessment. Therefore, downscaling of precipitation and temperature has to be carried out from the GCM grids to smaller scales of a few square kilometres. Daily precipitation and temperature are modelled as stochastic processes coupled to atmospheric circulation. Precipitation is linked to circulation patterns (CPs) using conditional model parameters. Temperature is modelled using a simple autoregressive model conditioned on atmospheric circulation and local daily precipitation. The models use an automated objective classification of daily atmospheric circulation patterns based on optimized fuzzy rules. Both temperature and precipitation are downscaled to several locations taking into account the CP dependent spatial correlation. The models were applied to the Mesochora medium-sized mountainous catchment in Central Greece for validation using observed precipitation and temperature and observed classified geo-potential heights (at 700 hPa). GCM scenarios of the ECHAM4 model for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2 cases were used to make climate change predictions (by using classified GCM geopotential heights). Simulated values agree fairly well with historical data. Most of the GCM results (incl. mean daily values, renewal process probabilities, spell lengths) under the 2xCO2 case reflect a somewhat wetter and a more variable precipitation regime over the Mesochora catchment with significantly increased daily mean temperatures.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document