scholarly journals Enhancing Physical Similarity Approach to Predict Runoff in Ungauged Watersheds in Sub-Tropical Regions

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Narbondo ◽  
Angela Gorgoglione ◽  
Magdalena Crisci ◽  
Christian Chreties
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Basins ◽  
Physical Similarity ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Runoff Prediction ◽  
Tropical Areas ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Predictions In Ungauged Basins

Regionalization techniques have been comprehensively discussed as the solution for runoff predictions in ungauged basins (PUB). Several types of regionalization approach have been proposed during the years. Among these, the physical similarity one was demonstrated to be one of the most robust. However, this method cannot be applied in large regions characterized by highly variable climatic conditions, such as sub-tropical areas. Therefore, this study aims to develop a new regionalization approach based on an enhanced concept of physical similarity to improve the runoff prediction of ungauged basins at country scale, under highly variable-weather conditions. A clustering method assured that watersheds with different hydrologic and physical characteristics were considered. The novelty of the proposed approach is based on the relationships found between rainfall-runoff model parameters and watershed-physiographic factors. These relationships were successively exported and validated at the ungauged basins. From the overall results, it can be concluded that the runoff prediction in the ungauged basins was very satisfactory. Therefore, the proposed approach can be adopted as an alternative method for runoff prediction in ungauged basins characterized by highly variable-climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Estimation of baseflow parameters of variable infiltration capacity model with soil and topography properties for predictions in ungauged basins

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7017-7053 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Bao ◽  
J. Liu ◽  
J. Zhang ◽  
G. Fu ◽  
G. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Parameters Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Basins ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Vic Model ◽  
Predictions In Ungauged Basins

Abstract. Equifinality is unavoidable when transferring model parameters from gauged catchments to ungauged catchments for predictions in ungauged basins (PUB). A framework for estimating the three baseflow parameters of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, directly with soil and topography properties is presented. When the new parameters setting methodology is used, the number of parameters needing to be calibrated is reduced from six to three, that leads to a decrease of equifinality and uncertainty. This is validated by Monte Carlo simulations in 24 hydro-climatic catchments in China. Using the new parameters estimation approach, model parameters become more sensitive and the extent of parameters space will be smaller when a threshold of goodness-of-fit is given. That means the parameters uncertainty is reduced with the new parameters setting methodology. In addition, the uncertainty of model simulation is estimated by the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results indicate that the uncertainty of streamflow simulations, i.e., confidence interval, is lower with the new parameters estimation methodology compared to that used by original calibration methodology. The new baseflow parameters estimation framework could be applied in VIC model and other appropriate models for PUB.

scholarly journals Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins – Part 3: Runoff signatures in Austria

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 449-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Viglione ◽  
J. Parajka ◽  
M. Rogger ◽  
J. L. Salinas ◽  
G. Laaha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Ungauged Basins ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Predictions In Ungauged Basins ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract. In a three-part paper we assess the performance of runoff predictions in ungauged basins in a comparative way. While Parajka et al. (2013) and Salinas et al. (2013) assess the regionalisation of hydrographs and hydrological extremes through a literature review, in this paper we assess prediction of a range of runoff signatures for a consistent dataset. Daily runoff time series are predicted for 213 catchments in Austria by a regionalised rainfall–runoff model and by Top-Kriging, a geostatistical interpolation method that accounts for the river network hierarchy. From the runoff timeseries, six runoff signatures are extracted: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curves, low flows, high flows and runoff hydrograph. The predictive performance is assessed by the bias, error spread and proportion of unexplained spatial variance of statistical measures of these signatures in cross-validation mode. Results of the comparative assessment show that the geostatistical approach (Top-Kriging) generally outperforms the regionalised rainfall–runoff model. The predictive performance increases with catchment area for both methods and all signatures, while the dependence on climate characteristics is weaker. Annual and seasonal runoff can be predicted more accurately than all other signatures. The spatial variability of high flows is the most difficult to capture followed by the low flows. The relative predictive performance of the signatures depends on the selected performance measures. It is therefore essential to report performance in a consistent way by more than one performance measure.

scholarly journals Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins – Part 3: Runoff signatures in Austria

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2263-2279 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Viglione ◽  
J. Parajka ◽  
M. Rogger ◽  
J. L. Salinas ◽  
G. Laaha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Ungauged Basins ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Predictions In Ungauged Basins ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract. This is the third of a three-part paper series through which we assess the performance of runoff predictions in ungauged basins in a comparative way. Whereas the two previous papers by Parajka et al. (2013) and Salinas et al. (2013) assess the regionalisation performance of hydrographs and hydrological extremes on the basis of a comprehensive literature review of thousands of case studies around the world, in this paper we jointly assess prediction performance of a range of runoff signatures for a consistent and rich dataset. Daily runoff time series are predicted for 213 catchments in Austria by a regionalised rainfall–runoff model and by Top-kriging, a geostatistical estimation method that accounts for the river network hierarchy. From the runoff time-series, six runoff signatures are extracted: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curves, low flows, high flows and runoff hydrographs. The predictive performance is assessed in terms of the bias, error spread and proportion of unexplained spatial variance of statistical measures of these signatures in cross-validation (blind testing) mode. Results of the comparative assessment show that, in Austria, the predictive performance increases with catchment area for both methods and for most signatures, it tends to increase with elevation for the regionalised rainfall–runoff model, while the dependence on climate characteristics is weaker. Annual and seasonal runoff can be predicted more accurately than all other signatures. The spatial variability of high flows in ungauged basins is the most difficult to estimate followed by the low flows. It also turns out that in this data-rich study in Austria, the geostatistical approach (Top-kriging) generally outperforms the regionalised rainfall–runoff model.

scholarly journals A trading-space-for-time approach to probabilistic continuous streamflow predictions in a changing climate

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 6385-6417 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Singh ◽  
T. Wagener ◽  
K. van Werkhoven ◽  
M. Mann ◽  
R. Crane
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Predictions In Ungauged Basins ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Understanding the implications of potential future climatic conditions for hydrologic services and hazards is a crucial and current science question. The common approach to this problem is to force a hydrologic model, calibrated on historical data or using a priori parameter estimates, with future scenarios of precipitation and temperature. Recent studies suggest that the climatic regime of the calibration period is reflected in the resulting parameter estimates and that the model performance can be negatively impacted if the climate for which projections are made is significantly different from that during calibration. We address this issue by introducing a framework for probabilistic streamflow predictions in a changing climate wherein we quantify the impact of climate on model parameters. The strategy extends a regionalization approach (used for predictions in ungauged basins) by trading space-for-time to account for potential parameter variability in a future climate that is beyond the historically observed one. The developed methodology was tested in five US watersheds located in dry to wet climates using synthetic climate scenarios generated by increasing the historical mean temperature from 0 to 8 °C and by changing historical mean precipitation from −30 % to +40 % of the historical values. Validation on historical data shows that changed parameters perform better if future streamflow differs from historical by more than 25 %. We found that the thresholds of climate change after which the streamflow projections using adjusted parameters were significantly different from those using fixed parameters were 0 to 2 °C for temperature change and −10 % to 20 % for precipitation change depending upon the aridity of the watershed. Adjusted parameter sets simulate a more extreme watershed response for both high and low flows.

PERSONALIZED APPROACH TO THE ORGANIZATION OF MEDICAL CARE FOR PATIENTS WITH WEATHER DEPENDENCE

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-39
Author(s):  
Klepikov O.V. ◽  
Kolyagina N.M. ◽  
Berezhnova T.A. ◽  
Kulintsova Ya.V.
Keyword(s):  
Medical Care ◽  
Cardiovascular System ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Outpatient Clinics ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Pathological Effect ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Personalized Approach

Relevance. Today, in preventive medicine, climatic conditions that have a pathological effect on the functional state of a person are increasingly being updated. the occurrence of exacerbations of many diseases can be causally associated with various weather conditions. Aim: to develop the main tasks for improving the organization of medical care for weather-dependent patients with diseases of the cardiovascular system. Material and methods. The assessment of personnel, material and technical support and the main performance indicators of an outpatient clinic was carried out on the example of the Voronezh city polyclinic No. 18 to develop the main tasks for improving the organization of medical care for weather-dependent patients with diseases of the cardiovascular system. Results. The main personnel problem is the low staffing of district therapists and specialists of a narrow service. One of the priorities for reducing the burden on medical hospitals is the organization of inpatient replacement medical care on the basis of outpatient clinics. The indicators for the implementation of state guarantees for the outpatient network for 2018, which were fully implemented, are given. The analysis of the planned load performance by polyclinic specialists is presented. Cardiological and neurological services carry out measures to reduce the risk of exacerbations of diseases with cerebral atherosclerosis, hypertension, and major neurological nosologies. Conclusion. Improving the organization of medical care for weather-dependent patients with cardiovascular diseases are: informing patients about the sources of specialized medical weather forecasts in the region, organizing the work of the medical prevention office, implementing an interdepartmental approach to providing health care to the most vulnerable groups of the population.

Influence of meteorological factors on potato yield in the conditions of the Right-Bank Forest-steppe

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (94) ◽  
pp. 55-61
Author(s):  
R.O. Myalkovsky
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Potato Yield ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Potato Tubers ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Lower Yield ◽  
The Right

Goal. The purpose of the research was to determine the influence of meteorological factors on potato yield in the conditions of the Right Bank Forest-steppe of Ukraine. Methods.Field, analytical and statistical. Results.It was established that among the mid-range varieties Divo stands out with a yield of 42.3 t/ha, Malin white – 39.8 t/ha, and Legend – 37.1 t/ ha. The most favourable weather and climatic conditions for the production of potato tubers were for the Divo 2011 variety with a yield of 45.9 t/ha and 2013 – 45.1 t/ha. For the Legenda variety 2016, the yield of potato tubers is 40.6 t/ha and 2017 – 43.2 t/ha. Malin White 2013 is 41.4 t/ha and 2017 42.1 t/ha. The average varieties of potatoes showed a slightly lower yield on average over the years of research. However, among the varieties is allocated Nadiyna – 40.3 t/ha, Slovyanka – 37.2 t/ ha and Vera 33.8 t/ha. Among the years, the most high-yielding for the Vera variety was 2016 with a yield of 36.6 t/ha and 2017 year – 37.8 t/ha. Varieties Slovyanka and Nadiyna 2011 and 2012 with yields of 42.6 and 44.3 t/ha and 46.5 and 45.3 t/ha, respectively. Characterizing the yield of potato tubers of medium-late varieties over the years of research, there was a decrease in this indicator compared with medium-early and middle-aged varieties. However, the high yield of the varieties of Dar is allocated – 40.0 t/ha, Alladin – 33.6 t/ha and Oxamit 31.3 t/ha. Among the years, the most favourable ones were: for Oxamit and Alladin – 2011 – 33.5 and 36.5 t/ha, and 2017 – 34.1 and 36.4 t/ha, respectively. Favourable years for harvesting varieties were 2011 and 2012 with yields of 45.7 and 45.8 t/ha. Thus, the highest yield of potato tubers on average over the years of studies of medium-early varieties of 41.2-43.3 t / ha were provided by weather conditions of 2011 and 2017 years, medium-ripe varieties 41.0-41.1 - 2012 and 2011, medium- late 37,6-38,5 t / ha - 2012 and 2011, respectively.

Optimal Command for Photovoltaic Systems in Real Outdoor Weather Conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 142 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafsa Abouadane ◽  
Abderrahim Fakkar ◽  
Benyounes Oukarfi
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Power Point Tracking ◽  
Accurate Determination ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Maximum Power ◽  
Photovoltaic System ◽  
Maximum Power Point ◽  
Point Tracking ◽  
Power Point Tracking ◽  
Power Point

The photovoltaic panel is characterized by a unique point called the maximum power point (MPP) where the panel produces its maximum power. However, this point is highly influenced by the weather conditions and the fluctuation of load which drop the efficiency of the photovoltaic system. Therefore, the insertion of the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) is compulsory to track the maximum power of the panel. The approach adopted in this paper is based on combining the strengths of two maximum power point tracking techniques. As a result, an efficient maximum power point tracking method is obtained. It leads to an accurate determination of the MPP during different situations of climatic conditions and load. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed MPPT method, it has been simulated in matlab/simulink under different conditions.

scholarly journals A Sensitivity Analysis of the SPACSYS Model

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 624
Author(s):  
Yan Shan ◽  
Mingbin Huang ◽  
Paul Harris ◽  
Lianhai Wu
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Dynamics ◽  
Ecological Modelling ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Nutrient Pool ◽  
Wheat Field

A sensitivity analysis is critical for determining the relative importance of model parameters to their influence on the simulated outputs from a process-based model. In this study, a sensitivity analysis for the SPACSYS model, first published in Ecological Modelling (Wu, et al., 2007), was conducted with respect to changes in 61 input parameters and their influence on 27 output variables. Parameter sensitivity was conducted in a ‘one at a time’ manner and objectively assessed through a single statistical diagnostic (normalized root mean square deviation) which ranked parameters according to their influence of each output variable in turn. A winter wheat field experiment provided the case study data. Two sets of weather elements to represent different climatic conditions and four different soil types were specified, where results indicated little influence on these specifications for the identification of the most sensitive parameters. Soil conditions and management were found to affect the ranking of parameter sensitivities more strongly than weather conditions for the selected outputs. Parameters related to drainage were strongly influential for simulations of soil water dynamics, yield and biomass of wheat, runoff, and leaching from soil during individual and consecutive growing years. Wheat yield and biomass simulations were sensitive to the ‘ammonium immobilised fraction’ parameter that related to soil mineralization and immobilisation. Simulations of CO2 release from the soil and soil nutrient pool changes were most sensitive to external nutrient inputs and the process of denitrification, mineralization, and decomposition. This study provides important evidence of which SPACSYS parameters require the most care in their specification. Moving forward, this evidence can help direct efficient sampling and lab analyses for increased accuracy of such parameters. Results provide a useful reference for model users on which parameters are most influential for different simulation goals, which in turn provides better informed decision making for farmers and government policy alike.

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