EXPERT DECISION-MAKING SYSTEMS

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 114-121
Author(s):  
Albert Voronin ◽  
◽  
Alina Savchenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Thought Experiment ◽  
Quantitative Characteristic ◽  
Quality Criteria ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
True Value ◽  
Criterion Functions ◽  
Quasi Experimental

An approach to making complex technical and economic decisions is proposed in cases where there is insufficient (or no) information about the experimental statistical data necessary for the construction of regression models of criterion functions. The situation is aggravated when a decision is made according to several conflicting quality criteria. In conditions of an acute shortage of experimental data, it is proposed to obtain the necessary information («quasi-experimental» data) from experts - specialists with sufficient experience in making decisions for the class in question. A qualified specialist (expert) with sufficient experience in making decisions for this class can perform a thought experiment. He must imagine what, in his opinion, the levels of criterion functions will be at various reference points of factors. The method is based on an individual opinion (postulate), expressed by a specialist-expert about the estimated value, based on his professional experience. To assess a certain quantitative characteristic, the postulates of not one, but several persons competent in this issue are used. It is assumed that the «true» value of the unknown quantitative characteristic is within the range of expert assessments and the «generalized» collective opinion is more reliable. To solve the problem under consideration, a multicriteria optimization approach is taken using a nonlinear trade-off scheme. This study makes it possible to identify the main trends in the development of multi-criteria decision-making systems in the absence (or lack) of experimental data. A model example is given.

The effect of social reference points on self-other risk decision-making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawei Wang ◽  
Mengmeng Zhou ◽  
Liping Zhu ◽  
Yixin Hu ◽  
Yuxi Shang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Social Reference ◽  
Risk Decision

scholarly journals Promoting Interpersonal Relationships through Elbow Tag, a Traditional Sporting Game. A Multidimensional Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7887
Author(s):  
Verónica Muñoz-Arroyave ◽  
Miguel Pic ◽  
Rafael Luchoro-Parrilla ◽  
Jorge Serna ◽  
Cristòfol Salas-Santandreu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Motor Behaviors ◽  
Quasi Experimental

The aim of this research was to study from a multidimensional point of view (decisional, relational and energetic) the interpersonal relationships established by girls and boys in the traditional sport game of Elbow Tag. Scientific evidence has shown that Traditional Sport Games (TSG) trigger different effects on male and female genders in relation to emotional experiences, decision-making, conflicts and motor relationships. Despite the fact that these dimensions are intertwined, there are hardly any studies that interpret motor behaviors holistically, i.e., taking a multidimensional (360°) view of these dimensions. For this study, a quasi-experimental design was used and a type III design was applied, inspired by the observational methodology N/P/M. A total of 147 university students participated (M = 19.6, SD = 2.3): 47 girls (31.97%) and 100 boys (68.02%). A mixed ‘ad hoc’ registration system was designed with acceptable margins of data quality. Cross-tabulations, classification trees and T-patterns analysis were applied. The results indicated that social interactions between girls and boys in a mixed group were unequal. This difference was mainly due to decision-making (sub-role variable), which has much greater predictive power than the energetic variables (MV and steps).

Ballot Cues, Business Candidates, and Voter Choices in Local Elections

2020 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2094355
Author(s):  
Brian E. Adams ◽  
Edward L. Lascher ◽  
Danielle Joesten Martin
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Small Business Owners ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Political Experience ◽  
Occupational Information ◽  
Political Background ◽  
Occupational Background

American voters commonly express abstract support for candidates with a business background, yet there is minimal systematic evidence about whether it advantages candidates in actual electoral contests. We examine this question using observational data, drawing on a California law allowing candidates to designate their occupational background on the ballot, and experimental data. Candidates with a business background are prevalent in California. However, neither of our studies indicate that business candidates enjoy atypical overall electoral success (although Republican leaning constituencies have a notably more favorable view of such candidates). A political background predicts electoral success far more effectively. Further, “small business owners” have more success than other business candidates, suggesting that voters consider the specifics of a candidate’s business experience. These results advance our knowledge of decision making in low-information elections, how voters weigh private-sector versus political experience, and how they filter occupational information through a partisan lens.

A Study of Cognitive Results in Marketing and Finance Students

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 666-684
Author(s):  
Paola Andrea Ortiz-Rendón ◽  
Luz Alexandra Montoya-Restrepo ◽  
Jose-Luis Munuera-Alemán
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Performance Studies ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Academic Organizations ◽  
Marketing Performance ◽  
Education Levels ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Mixed Groups

Background. It is undeniable that human capital is a highly valued resource in today’s increasingly competitive and interconnected world. Management education involving decision-making is a fundamental issue in today’s education systems. Particularly, the marketing audit improves the decision-making process based on the assessment of the marketing performance and the analysis of the market results. Although marketing audits are not widely used among organizations yet, marketing control mechanisms have become more important in organizational performance studies and must be integrated into marketing and finance education programs. Method. This quasi-experimental study followed a pretest/posttest design to measure differences in the scores 281 marketing and finance students in Colombia taking part in a game of marketing audit. Results and conclusion. All students significantly improved their higher grades after taking part in the game. Marketing and finance students also improved their responses. For the students in the final semester and for the male and mixed groups, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the game can improve their cognitive results. Decisions between marketing and finance professionals must be reinforced, to allow academic organizations involved in developing markets and characterized by low levels of competitiveness improve their education levels.

Development and Assessment of a Total Resistance Optimized Bow for the AE 36

1994 ◽  
Vol 31 (02) ◽  
pp. 149-160
Author(s):  
Donald C. Wyatt ◽  
Peter A. Chang
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Optimization Procedure ◽  
Wave Resistance ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Nonlinear Constraints ◽  
Total Resistance ◽  
Hull Form ◽  
Final Design ◽  
Resistance Data

A numerically optimized bow design is developed to reduce the total resistance of a 23 000 ton ammunition ship (AE 36) at a speed of 22 knots. An optimization approach using slender-ship theory for the prediction of wave resistance is developed and applied. The new optimization procedure is an improvement over previous optimization methodologies in that it allows the use of nonlinear constraints which assure that the final design remains within practical limits from construction and operational perspectives. Analytic predictions indicate that the AE 36 optimized with this procedure will achieve a 40% reduction in wave resistance and a 33% reduction in total resistance at 22 knots relative to a Kracht elliptical bulb bow design. The optimization success is assessed by the analysis of 25th scale model resistance data collected at the David Taylor Research Center deepwater towing basin. The experimental data indicate that the optimized hull form yields a 51% reduction in wave resistance and a 12% reduction in total resistance for the vessel at 22 knots relative to the Kracht bulb bow design. Similarly encouraging results are also observed when comparisons are made with data collected on two other conventionally designed AE 36 designs.

Quality criteria for Real-World Data in pharmaceutical research and healthcare decision making. An Austrian Expert Consensus (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Klimek ◽  
Dejan Baltic ◽  
Martin Brunner ◽  
Alexander Degelsegger-Marquez ◽  
Gerhard Garhöfer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Medical Research ◽  
Real World ◽  
Pharmaceutical Medicine ◽  
Pharmaceutical Research ◽  
Quality Criteria ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
European Medicines Agency ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
World Data

UNSTRUCTURED Real-world data (RWD) collected in routine healthcare processes and transformed to real-world evidence (RWE) has become increasingly interesting within research and medical communities to enhance medical research and support regulatory decision making. Despite numerous European initiatives, there is still no cross-border consensus or guideline determining which quality RWD must meet in order to be acceptable for decision making within regulatory or routine clinical decision support. An Austrian expert group led by GPMed (Gesellschaft für Pharmazeutische Medizin, Austrian Society for Pharmaceutical Medicine) reviewed drafted guidelines, published recommendations or viewpoints to derive a consensus statement on quality criteria for RWD to be used more effectively for medical research purposes beyond registry-based studies discussed in the European Medicines Agency (EMA) guideline for registry-based studies

scholarly journals Choice Shifts in School Disciplinary Decision Making: Analysis of Age Differences of Panel Members

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-94
Author(s):  
Peter J.O. Aloka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Secondary Schools ◽  
Age Differences ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Choice Shift ◽  
Consistency Method

Background: Decision making is critical to each organization and it requires the ability to find a possible balance between risky and cautious decisions. The Kenyan secondary schools are mandated by the Ministry of Education to manage students’ misbehaviors by the disciplinary panels. Aim: The present study investigated the choice shifts in disciplinary decision making in Kenyan secondary schools based on age groups of the panel members. Methods: The Quasi-Experimental Pretest-Posttest Design was adopted. The study targeted 360 teachers- members of disciplinary panels in 45 secondary schools in the Rongo sub-county of Kenya. A sample size of 78 members of disciplinary panels in 10 secondary schools was involved. This was 22% of the target population of members of disciplinary panels in the Rongo district. The choice shift in decisions was ascertained using the Modified Choice Dilemma Questionnaire. The validity of the tools was ensured by the expert judgment by two Kenyan psychologists, while the reliability was determined using the internal consistency method and an alpha of 0.695 was reported. Results: The results of the Multivariate Analysis Of Variance indicated that there were differences in choice shifts from the pre to post-disciplinary hearing decisions among the members of selected school disciplinary panels on the basis of their age groups (Wilk’s Lambda (λ) test: F (12, 188) = 7.40, P = 0.000, P < 0.05). Conclusion: It was concluded that the age of the members of disciplinary panels influenced the nature of choice shifts in decisions. It was recommended that principals should ensure that the membership of school disciplinary panels is broad-based.

scholarly journals Prognostic Genomic Tissue-Based Biomarkers in the Treatment of Localized Prostate Cancer

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Gianluca Ingrosso ◽  
Emanuele Alì ◽  
Simona Marani ◽  
Simonetta Saldi ◽  
Rita Bellavita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Locally Advanced ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Quality Criteria ◽  
Localized Prostate Cancer ◽  
Decision Making Process

In localized prostate cancer clinicopathologic variables have been used to develop prognostic nomograms quantifying the probability of locally advanced disease, of pelvic lymph node and distant metastasis at diagnosis or the probability of recurrence after radical treatment of the primary tumor. These tools although essential in daily clinical practice for the management of such a heterogeneous disease, which can be cured with a wide spectrum of treatment strategies (i.e., active surveillance, RP and radiation therapy), do not allow the precise distinction of an indolent instead of an aggressive disease. In recent years, several prognostic biomarkers have been tested, combined with the currently available clinicopathologic prognostic tools, in order to improve the decision-making process. In the following article, we reviewed the literature of the last 10 years and gave an overview report on commercially available tissue-based biomarkers and more specifically on mRNA-based gene expression classifiers. To date, these genomic tests have been widely investigated, demonstrating rigorous quality criteria including reproducibility, linearity, analytical accuracy, precision, and a positive impact in the clinical decision-making process. Albeit data published in literature, the systematic use of these tests in prostate cancer is currently not recommended due to insufficient evidence.

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