scholarly journals Macroeconomic Impacts of Monetary Variables on Pakistan’s Foreign Sector

2004 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-84
Author(s):  
M. Aslam Chaudhary ◽  
Ghulam Shabbir
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Foreign Reserve ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary variables on the balance of payments of Pakistan. Besides, exogoneity of monetary variables is also tested. The empirical findings of the study show that balance of payments is a monetary phenomenon and monetary policy could be useful in improving the foreign sector. The studies so far have not confirmed this effect. The study also shows that an increase in price level and real income lead foreign reserves to inflow. However, an increase in the interest rate, money multiplier and domestic credit lead international reserves to outflow. Partial sterilisation was evident in the short run. But in the long run, it tends to be equal to minus one, indicating no sterilisation effect on the foreign reserve movements. The central implication derived from the study is that an increasing government budget deficit leads to excessive expansion in domestic credit creation and as a result a loss of foreign reserves. The null hypothesis for exogoneity of price level, real income, interest rate and inflation rate to foreign reserves is accepted. However, the null hypothesis for the exogoneity of domestic credit is rejected for the general model but accepted for the linear model. It appears that monetary policy is effective in Pakistan

scholarly journals Banking Sector Capitalization and Deposit Money Banks’ Profitability in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lambert Ejokor John Konboye ◽  
Alwell Nteegah
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Frontier Analysis ◽  
Low Efficiency ◽  
Frontier Efficiency ◽  
The Impact

The incessant bank distress coupled with the poor financial intermediation capacity of the banking sector has been identified as the main problems of the banking subsector in Nigeria. This underscores the continue quest for increase capital base of banks as possible remedy to these problems. This development makes it imperative for us to examine how capitalization has affected banks profitability in Nigeria. To achieve our objectives, both panel and Partial Frontier efficiency analyses were utilized in this investigation. Using gross profits of 18 DMBs as dependent variable while capital base of DMBs, real income (GDP), financial deepening, interest rate and inflation rate are independent variables, we found that: capitalization has a significant impact on profitability of banks, while financial development, real income level were found to had contributed less to profitability of banks in Nigeria. It was further discovered that, interest rate has less implication on the profitability, while the impact of inflation on profitability of banks was positively but insignificantly. We also found that 58 % of the total variation in profitability is influenced by capital base, financial deepening, interest rate, GDP and price level in Nigeria over the period. The study further revealed that impact of capitalization on profitability of banks is the same across the banks. Finally, using the partial efficiency frontier analysis, we found that Unity Bank and UBA performed better with improved capital base while Union and Heritage Banks performed abysmally with high capital base given the very low efficiency scores. Based on these findings, the study recommends; periodic upward review of capital base of banks, stable macroeconomic policy, and creating enabling environment for investments as ways of enhancing an efficient financial sector and growth of the Nigerian economy. Int. J. Soc. Sc. Manage. Vol. 3, Issue-3: 203-213

Empirical Evidence of Dynamic Interactions Among Price Level, Interest Rate, Money Supply and Real Income: The Case of the Indian Economy

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092098029
Author(s):  
Haroon Rasool ◽  
Masudul Hasan Adil ◽  
Md. Tarique
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Indicator Approach ◽  
Multiple Indicator ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy approaches in India have changed from the simple monetary targeting frameworks in the mid-1980s to the multiple-indicator approach in the late 1990s and to the current flexible inflation targeting framework. The study aims to investigate the relationships among the macroeconomic variables money supply, real income, price level and interest rate for the period 1998–2014 in the case of India, a period when India adopted the multiple-indicator approach as its monetary policy strategy. The study uses the vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. The Granger causality test via the VAR framework suggests that four pairs of causality exist; in particular, bidirectional causality exists between money supply and price level. Interest rate Granger-causes both real income and price level, and money supply Granger-causes the rate of interest. However, the study could not find any causal relationship between real income and money supply in either direction. The findings that money supply causes the interest rate and the interest rate causes real output are in line with the Keynesian theory, which argues that money supply affects output through the nominal interest rate. Finally, the results also support the arguments made in favour of a policy move from the multiple-indicator approach to the inflation targeting framework in India.

Dampak Kebijakan Moneter Pada Output Di Negara-Negara ASEAN Tahun 1980-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70
Author(s):  
Nur Widiastuti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
State Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.Keyword: Monetary Policy, Output, Panel Data, Fixed Effects Model

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

scholarly journals The impact of Musharakah financing on the monetary policy in the Islamic economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Hatem Adela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to formulating the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, using the development of the conventional economics, theoretical and mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The study based on the inductive and mathematical methods to contribute to economic theory within the methodological framework for Islamic Economics, by using the return rate of Musharakah rather than the interest rate in influence the economic activity and monetary policy. Findings Via replacement, the concept of the interest rate by the return rates of Musharakah. It concludes that the central bank can control the monetary policy, economic activity and the efficient allocation of resources by using the return rates of Musharakah through the framework of Islamic economy. Practical/implications The study is a contribution to formulate the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, where it investigates the impact of return rates of Musharakah on the money market and monetary policy, by the mathematical methods used in the conventional economy. Also, the study illustrates the importance of further studies that examine the methodological framework for Islamic Economics. Originality/value The study aims to contribute to formulating the Islamic economic theory, through the return rate of Musharakah financing instead of the interest rate, and its effectiveness of the monetary policy. As well as reformulating the concepts of the investment function, the present value and the marginal efficiency rate of investment according to the Islamic economy approach.

scholarly journals Effectiveness and Forecasting of Interest Rate Reversal BI 7-Day Repo Rate in Indonesia: Lower Bound on Monetary Policy?

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-180
Author(s):  
I Gede Sanica ◽  
I Ketut Nurcita ◽  
I Made Mastra ◽  
Desak Made Sukarnasih
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Implementation Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Repo Rate ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study aims to analyze effectivity and forecast of interest rate BI 7-Day Repo Rate as policy reference in the implementation of monetary policy. The method was used in this study contains Vector Autoregression (VAR) to estimate effectivity of BI 7-Day Repo Rate and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to forecast of BI 7-Day Repo Rate. Period of observation in this study used time series data during 2016.4 until 2017.6. The result of this research shows that the transformation of the BI Rate to BI 7-Day Repo Rate is the right step in the monetary policy operation in the effort to reach deepening of the financial market and strengthen the interbank money market structure so that it will decrease loan interest rate and encourage credit growth. The effectiveness of the use of BI 7 Day-Repo Rate on price stability is indicated by the positive relationship between the benchmark interest rate and inflation compared to the BI Rate. The impact of BI 7-Day Repo Rate on economic growth that tends to be positive. Forecasting the use of BI 7-Day Repo Rate shows good results with declining value levels, so this will encourage deepening the financial markets.

scholarly journals Monetary Transmission through Interest Rate Channel in Vietnam Before and After the Crisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 51-75
Author(s):  
Hương Trầm Thị Xuân ◽  
Vinh Võ Xuân ◽  
CẢNH NGUYỄN PHÚC
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper employs the VAR model to examine the impact of monetary policy on the economy through interest rate channel (IRC) and levels of transmission before and after the 2008 crisis. The results indicate that in the period before the financial crisis, IRC exists in accordance with macroeconomic theory; however, the crisis period, in which increases in SBV monetary policy rates lead to increased inflation, has proved the existence of the cost channel of monetary transmission in Vietnam.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Effects on Energy Sector Bubbles

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 472
Author(s):  
Petre Caraiani ◽  
Adrian Călin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks, including unconventional policy measures, on the bubbles of the energy sector, for the case of the United States. We estimate a time-varying Bayesian VAR model that allows for quantifying the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices and bubbles. The energy sector is measured through the S&P Energy Index, while bubbles are measured through the difference between asset prices and the corresponding dividends for the energy sector. We find significant differences in the impact of monetary policy shocks for the aggregate economy and for the energy sector. The findings seem sensitive to the interest rate use, i.e., whether one uses the shadow interest rate or the long-term interest rate.

The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan

2004 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 76-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Hunt ◽  
Douglas Laxton
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Policy Strategies

This paper uses the IMF's macroeconomic model MULTIMOD to examine the implications of the zero interest rate floor (ZIF) for the design of monetary policy in Japan. Similar to findings in other studies, targeting rates of inflation lower than 2.0 per cent significantly increases the likelihood of the ZIF becoming binding. Systematic monetary policy strategies that respond strongly to stabilise output and inflation, or that incorporate some explicit price-level component, can help to mitigate the implications of the ZIF.

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